MODELING CLIMATE CHANGE

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MODELING CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CLASSROOM Rachel
A. Loehman, Ph.D.1,2 Lisa M. Blank, Ph.D.2 Jeff
W. Crews, M.Ed.2 1Numerical Terradynamic
Simulation Group (http//www.ntsg.umt.edu) 2Spatia
lSci/GTEC (www.spatialsci.com) University of
Montana Missoula, MT
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• Education overview
• Global climate change
• Not a theory!
• Scientific basis and observations
• Exploring climate change and human health in the
  classroom
• Climate modeling
• What is hantavirus?
• Spatial relationships between climate and
  hantavirus

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• Program Goals
• Advance geospatial skills in science
• Contribute to a national model for improving
  science teaching and student learning using
  geotechnologies
• Foster spatial thinking, spatial literacy, and
  data analysis
• Curriculum Objectives
• Define and describe global warming
• Provide and discuss evidence for global warming
• Consider what might constitute sufficient
  evidence
• Examine impacts of climate change

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN HEALTH SCIENTIFIC
BASIS
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• there is a scientific consensus on the reality
  of anthropogenic climate change.
• Oreskas, N. 2004. The Scientific Consensus on
  Climate Change. Science (306) p. 1686
• In an analysis of 928 papers on global climate
  change published in refereed scientific journals
  between 1993 and 2003 NONE OF THE PAPERS
  disagreed on the scientific consensus position.

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How does climate affect human health?
CHANGE IN JULY HEAT INDEX PREDICTED FOR THE 21ST
CENTURY

• Direct effects extreme events
• hurricanes, droughts, floods, heat waves
• Indirect effects changes in distribution and
  abundance of disease hosts and vectors
• malaria, West Nile encephalitis, Rocky Mountain
  spotted fever, plague, hantavirus pulmonary
  syndrome

Source USGCRP
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What is hantavirus?

• Climate-sensitive vector-borne disease
• High mortality in humans (gt 50)
• Deer mouse is principal reservoir species
• No negative reservoir effects

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN HEALTH CLASSROOM
LESSON
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• Product of the Carbon Dioxide Information
  Analysis Center (CDIAC) and National Climatic
  Data Center (NCDC)
• Long-term monthly temperature and precipitation
  data
• 1221 stations within the conterminous US

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http//yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/cont
ent/index.html
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Contact Information

• www.SpatialSci.com
• rachel_at_spatialsci.com
• lisa_at_spatialsci.com
• jeff_at_spatialsci.com