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Climate Change Impacts on the Hudson

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Climate Change Impacts on the Hudson Art DeGaetano Professor and Assoc. Chair Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Director Northeast Regional Climate Center – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Climate Change Impacts on the Hudson


1
Climate Change Impacts on the Hudson
Art DeGaetano Professor and Assoc. Chair Dept.
of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Director
Northeast Regional Climate Center
2
STEP 4 High-resolution regional climate
projections
Temp from global climate model
Temperature from downscaling
3
Seasonal Projections Temperature Precipitatio
n
4
Regional Variation in Heavy Rain
5
Extreme Event Frequency
6
Spatial Variation of Days with Snow on Ground
1970-2000
7
Dates of Center-of-Volume River Flow
8
Drought
SHORT MEDIUM LONG
9
Storms
10
Sea Level Rise
The IPCC model-based approach local land
subsidence local relative ocean height global
thermal expansion meltwater
11
Sea Level Rise
The rapid ice melt scenario replaces the model
based meltwater term with sea level rise rates
(43 /- 4 in/century) observed during
paleoclimate analogues
12
Questions?
13
STEP ONE Future Emissions from Human Activities
A1fi (higher) continued dependence on
fossil fuels with material-intensive economy,
970ppm by 2100 B1 (lower) shift
to alternative energy sources with service
information-focused economy 550ppm at 2100
14
STEP TWO Global Climate Modeling
  • Backcast to compare historical simulations with
    observed climate.
  • Forecast to develop future projections of
    changes in temperature, precipitation, extreme
    events, etc.

3 different climate models
15
STEP 3 Global Temperature Change
Likely range 1.1oC to 6.4oC 2oF to 11.5oF
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