Title: Climate Change Impacts on the Hudson
1Climate Change Impacts on the Hudson
Art DeGaetano Professor and Assoc. Chair Dept.
of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Director
Northeast Regional Climate Center
2STEP 4 High-resolution regional climate
projections
Temp from global climate model
Temperature from downscaling
3Seasonal Projections Temperature Precipitatio
n
4Regional Variation in Heavy Rain
5Extreme Event Frequency
6Spatial Variation of Days with Snow on Ground
1970-2000
7Dates of Center-of-Volume River Flow
8Drought
SHORT MEDIUM LONG
9Storms
10Sea Level Rise
The IPCC model-based approach local land
subsidence local relative ocean height global
thermal expansion meltwater
11Sea Level Rise
The rapid ice melt scenario replaces the model
based meltwater term with sea level rise rates
(43 /- 4 in/century) observed during
paleoclimate analogues
12Questions?
13STEP ONE Future Emissions from Human Activities
A1fi (higher) continued dependence on
fossil fuels with material-intensive economy,
970ppm by 2100 B1 (lower) shift
to alternative energy sources with service
information-focused economy 550ppm at 2100
14STEP TWO Global Climate Modeling
- Backcast to compare historical simulations with
observed climate. - Forecast to develop future projections of
changes in temperature, precipitation, extreme
events, etc.
3 different climate models
15STEP 3 Global Temperature Change
Likely range 1.1oC to 6.4oC 2oF to 11.5oF