Climate Change in Scotland / UK / N. Europe

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Climate Change in Scotland/ UK / N. Europe

• David Stevenson
• Institute of Atmospheric and Environmental
  Sciences
• University of Edinburgh

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Main sources of information

• IPCC Climate Change 2007
• The Physical Science Basis, Summary for
  Policymakers (WGI-SPM)
• Also leaked 2nd drafts of full report (Draft WGI)
• Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and
  Vulnerability (WGII-SPM)
• UK Climate Impacts Program 2002
• The UKCIP02 Briefing Report (UKCIP02)
• www.ipcc.ch
• www.ukcip.org.uk

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Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as
is now evident from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level.Most of the observed
increase in globally averaged temperatures since
the mid-20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations.
Two key quotes from IPCC (2007) WGI-SPM
In IPCC parlance, very likely is gt90 chance
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WGI-SPM
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Spring is getting earlier!
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90-95 of all changesare consistent withwarming
IPCC 2007 SPM-WGII
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Northern Europelikely to warm by2 to 5?C by 2100
WGI-SPM Draft WGI
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UKCIP02 Changes in temperature
In 2002, UKCIP study indicates Scotland will warm
by 1.5-3.5?C
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Annual
Winter
Summer
Temperature
Precipitation
WGI-SPM Draft WGI
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Changes in precipitation
UKCIP02, High emissions case (A1FI) (2071-2100 vs
1961-1990)1 Model Hadley Centre Regional Model
Annual
Winter
Summer
IPCC 2007, draft WGI Chapter 11 Regional
ModellingA1B scenario, 2080/90s relative to
1980/90s 21 Models
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Draft WGI
Some models predict largeincreases in higher
percentiles of GB summer maximum temperatures,
i.e. much more severeheat-waves
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Extreme events also crucial for coastal flooding
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Summary of robustfindings from
regionalmodelling from thedraft IPCC WGI,
formean and extremeprecipitation,
drought,sea-ice, extreme winds,and tropical
cyclones.
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Summer (JJA)
Less rainfall in summer,more rainfall in
winter,but UK is near boundarybetween
increases/decreases, so relativelyuncertain. Ra
infall is more intense in both seasons,
i.e.increased likelihood offlash-floods.
Winter (DJF)
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Summary

• Scotland likely to warm 2.5?C by 2100(also more
  extreme heat-waves)
• Winter precipitation increases (10-15)
• Summer precipitation decreases (5-10)
• Precipitation intensity increases flash-floods
• Snow declines Wind-storms increase?
• Sea-level rise partly mitigated by uplift
  (30-40cm) coastal floods
• Although prognosis is bad, Scotland is perhaps
  relatively the least impacted region of N. Europe?