Igor A. Shiklomanov, Jeanna A. Balonishnikova, and Vladimir Yu. Georgiyevsky

1
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??????????????? ????? ?? ?????????? ??????
Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water
Resources for the Russian territories
Igor A. Shiklomanov, Jeanna A. Balonishnikova,
and Vladimir Yu. Georgiyevsky State Hydrological
Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia
2
Contents
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• ??????????? ????????? ?????? ???????? ? ???????
  ?????? ??? ??????
• ????????? ? ??????????? ????????? ?????? ????????
  ? ??????? ?????? ? ?????????? ???????????
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• ?????????-????????????? ???????????

• Modern changes in water resources and water
  regime of Russian rivers
• Probable future changes in water resources and
  water regime due to the global warming
• Social and economic consequences of these
  changes.

3
Hydrological regime, as an indicator of climate
??????????????? ?????, ??? ????????? ???????

• ?????? ???? ?????????????? ?????????????
  ????????? ? ????????????? ??????????
• ???????? ????????????? ???????????????? ??????
  ???????????? ?????????????? ????????? ?????????
  ????????????????? ??????????, ?.?. ???????

• River runoff is a combined characteristic of the
  watershed and climate parameters
• Dynamics of natural hydrological regime is an
  integrated characteristic of changes in the
  complex of meteorological parameters, namely of
  the climate.

4
????????????? ?????????? ?????? Hydro-climatologi
cal regions of the territory of Russia
5
???????? ?????? ???????? ?.????? ? ???????? ??
????????
Dynamics of water resources of the Volga River
and its major tributaries
Volga
Oka
Kama
6
???????? ?????? ???????? ?????????? ??? ?????? ?
?????? ???
Dynamics of water resources of the largest rivers
in Siberia and Northern
European Territory of Russia
Yenisey
Ob
Lena
Kolyma
Pechora
Severnaya Dvina
7
???? ?? ????? ????? ?????????? ??? ?????? ?
?????? ?? ?????? 1936-2005 ??. Annual discharge
of the six largest rivers of the North and
Siberia in 1936-2005
8
???????? ?????? ???????? ? ????????? ?.???,
?.????? ? ? ????????? ?.??? Dynamics of water
resources in the basins of the Don and Irtysh
Rivers and the upper reaches of the Ob River
Don
Irtysh
Ob
9
?????? ??????? ?? ??????????? ??????? ?????? ??
????????? ??????? Water Resources by Federal
Regions of Russia for Different Time Periods
Federal region Local water resources, km3/yr Local water resources, km3/yr Change in local water resources Change in local water resources
Federal region 1936-1984 1985-2005 km3/yr
Central 105 113 8 8
North-West 546 581 35 6
Southern 51,1 58,9 7,8 15
Volga 166 199 33 20
Ural 372 420 48 13
Siberia 1 230 1 293 63 5
Far-East 1 558 1 576 18 1
Russian Federation 4 028 4 241 213 5
10
?????-????? ???????? ???????? ????? ??? ( ??
?????) ?? ?????? 1978 - 2005 ??. Diagram of
anomalies in annual river discharge ( of the
normal) in 1978-2005
11
?????-????? ???????? ??????? ????? ??? ( ??
?????) ?? ?????? 1978 - 2005 ??. Diagram of
anomalies in winter river discharge ( of the
normal) in 1978-2005
12
??????????? ???????? ??????? ????? (?3/?) ???
?????? ???? ??????????? ?????????? ??????
Long-term dynamics of winter river discharge
(m3/s) in the forest zone of European Russia
Jug
Mologa
Unzha
Vyatka
Upper Volga
Oka
13
??????????? ???????? ??????? ????? (?3/?) ???
??????????? ???? ??????????? ?????????? ??????
Long-term dynamics of winter river discharge
(m3/s) in the forest-steppe zone of European
Russia
Sosna
Syzran
Tereshka
Sviyaga
Bol. Cheremshan
Sok
14
??????????? ???????? ??????? ????? (?3/?) ???
??????? ???? ??????????? ?????????? ??????
Long-term dynamics of winter river discharge
(m3/s) in the steppe zone of European Russia
Elan
Bol. Kinel
Medveditsa
Dema
Samara
Sakmara
15
???????? ????? ?????? ??????? ? XX
????????Runoff dynamics in winter months of
20-th century
Unzha January
Oka January
Oka February
Unzha February
16
???????? ??????? ????????? ??? ?? ?????? ???
Dynamics of groundwater levels based on the data
of the Water-Balance stations
17
?????-????? ???????? ?????-???????? ????? ???
( ?? ?????) ?? ?????? 1978 - 2005 ??. Diagram of
anomalies in summer-autumn river discharge ( of
the normal) in 1978-2005
18
?????-????? ???????? ????????? ????? ??? ( ??
?????) ?? ?????? 1978 - 2005 ??. Diagram of
anomalies in spring river discharge ( of the
normal) in 1978-2005
19
?????? ? ??????????? ?????????????Annual
distribution of water inflow to the Tsimlyansk
Reservoir on the Don river
20
??????????????? ?????? ???????????? ??????? ????
?.???? ? ?.?????, ????????????? ???????? ????
Lensk May 18, 2001
Chronology of maximum water levels caused by ice
blockage on the Lena River
near the city of Lensk
21
???????????? ??????? ???? ? ????????
?.??????Maximum water discharge in the Kuban
river basin
Barsukovskaya June 22, 2002
22
??????????? ??? ????????? ??????? ???? ??
??????-?????? ???Long-term dynamics of the
highest water levels in the North-West Russia
Ilmen lake
Tikhvinka river
23
?????????????? ????????? ???????? ? ????????????
?? ????? ???????? ?????? ?? ?????? 1981-2005 ??.
Characteristics of the changing flood situation
on Russian rivers in 1981-2005
? ????????? ????? ?????? ???????? ? , ???
??????? ???? ?????????? ?????? ???? ?
??????????? ??????? ? ?????????? ???????
?????????? ?????? ? ?? ?????????.
The numerator is the number of river sites ()
with indication of increased peak water levels
the denominator is the average and maximum
increase in the peak levels ( of amplitude).
24
????????? ????????? ???????????? ??????? ????????
??????? ?? ??????? ????? ??? Trend of maximum ice
cover thickness on large rivers of the Asian
territory of Russia
Ob
Yenisey
Lena
25
?????? ????????? ? ??????????? ????????? ?????
???
Assessment of probable runoff changes in the
future

• ???? ???????????? ? ????????? ???????????
  ???????????????????? ????????? ??????? ??????
  ???
• ??????????????? ?????? ???
• ?????????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????????? ?? ?????
  1970-? ??.
• ???????? ???????????? ?????? ?? ???????????
  ?????? ?????????? ?? ????????? ??? ???????????
• ????????????? ????? ?? ???????? ??????????????
  ????????????????, ??????????? ?? ??????? ?????
  ?????????? ????????? ? ??????????????????
  ?????????
• ?????? ??????????? ????????, ??????????? ???????

• Analysis of modern changes in the rivers water
  regime caused by climate change
• Use of the SHI water-balance model
• Calibration of the model using data observed till
  the end of 1970-ies
• Verification of the model adequacy using data
  observed during last two decades
• Runoff modeling with climatic inputs derived from
  GCMs and paleoclimatic scenarios
• Analysis of results, conclusions

26
????????? ?????? ???????? ??? ?????? ?? ???????
2010-2039 ??. ?? ???????? HadCM3/?2 Changes in
water resources of Russias rivers in 2010-2039
according to the scenario HadCM3/A2
River Long-term average water resources, mm Changes in water resources Changes in water resources
River Long-term average water resources, mm mm
Pechora 404 34 8
Mezen 355 19 5
Severnaya Dvina 305 12 4
Neva 279 5 2
Luga 227 3 1
Dnieper 136 -2 -1
Desna 124 -4 -3
Don 72 -2 -3
Volga 183 17 9
Ural 43 4 10
Ob 135 4 3
Yenisey 244 16 6
Lena 214 24 11
Olenek 169 15 9
Yana 129 11 8
Indigirka 149 16 11
Kolyma 197 15 8
- Russian part
27
????????? ? ??????????? ????????? ?????
?????????? ??????????? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ?
???????? ??????????? ?????????? (?? ??????
????????? ???????) Future Changes in the
discharge of the largest Arctic Rivers and in
inflow to the Arctic Ocean under global warming
(by the data of different authors)
Autors, year Climate scenario Basin Changes in discharge (inflow) Changes in discharge (inflow)
Autors, year Climate scenario Basin annual winter
Miller and Russel, 1992 CCC GISS 2xCO2 Yenisey Lena, Ob, Kolyma 10-45
Shiklomanov, A.I. 1994, 1997 AARI SHI 20? Yenisey 9 61
Shiklomanov, A.I. 1994, 1997 AARI SHI 40? Yenisey 15 325
Shiklomanov, A.I. 1994, 1997 AARI GFDL 2xCO2 Yenisey 19 70
Shiklomanov, A.I. 1994, 1997 AARI UKMO 2xCO2 Yenisey 45 80
Georgiyevsky, Vladimir et al. 1999 SHI GFDL 2xCO2 UKMO Inflow to the Barents Sea 14-35 25-46
Arnell, N 1999 UK HadCM2 HadCM3 6 scenarios for 2050 Yenisey 6-14
Arnell, N 1999 UK HadCM2 HadCM3 6 scenarios for 2050 Lena 12-25
Arnell, N 1999 UK HadCM2 HadCM3 6 scenarios for 2050 Ob 3-10
Arnell, N 1999 UK HadCM2 HadCM3 6 scenarios for 2050 Kolyma 30-40
Arnell, N 1999 UK HadCM2 HadCM3 6 scenarios for 2050 Mackenzie 12-20
Arnell, N 1999 UK HadCM2 HadCM3 6 scenarios for 2050 Ukon 20-30
Miller and Russel, 2000 GISS CO2 0.5 by 2100 Inflow to the Arctic Ocean 12
Miller and Russel, 2000 GISS CO2 0.5 by 2100 Rivers of Eurasia 9
Miller and Russel, 2000 GISS CO2 0.5 by 2100 Rivers of N.America 23
Autors, year Climate scenario Basin Changes in discharge (inflow) Changes in discharge (inflow)
Autors, year Climate scenario Basin annual winter
Aroa Bayer 2001 CGCM Yenisey 18
Aroa Bayer 2001 CGCM Lena 19
Aroa Bayer 2001 CGCM Ob -12
Aroa Bayer 2001 CGCM Mackenzie 20
Aroa Bayer 2001 CGCM Ukon 10
Georgievsky, V. et.al. 2003 SHI HadCM3 Lena 12
Mokhov, I. Hon 2002, 2003 IFA RAS HadCM3 ECHAM4 Yenisey 8
Mokhov, I. Hon 2002, 2003 IFA RAS HadCM3 ECHAM4 Lena 22-24
Mokhov, I. Hon 2002, 2003 IFA RAS HadCM3 ECHAM4 Ob 3-4
Manabe Wetherold 2003 USA IS92a by 2035-2065 Ukon 20,5
Manabe Wetherold 2003 USA IS92a by 2035-2065 Mackenzie 20,8
Manabe Wetherold 2003 USA IS92a by 2035-2065 Yenisey 13,4
Manabe Wetherold 2003 USA IS92a by 2035-2065 Lena 12,3
Manabe Wetherold 2003 USA IS92a by 2035-2065 Ob 20,6
Arnell, N 2004 UK Ensemble 6 models by 2080 ?2 emission ?2 emission Total inflow to the Arctic Ocean 24 18
28
??????? ????????? ????? ?? 2010-2015 ?? (? ??
????????? ? ???????-?????????????
???????) Forecast of changes in discharge in
2010-2015 ( of the conventional natural period)
?????? ???????? ????????????? ??????????????????
???????? ??????????? ??????? ???? ??????
???? ???????? ????
?????? ????
Numbers of regions correspond to hydro-climatic
regions Symbols Annual discharge Winter
discharge Spring discharge
Summer discharge
29
??????????? ? ????????? ????????? ????????
???????? ??????? ???? ? ?????????????? ??????????
??? ?? ??????? Current and expected changes in
mean annual water inflow to reservoirs at large
hydro-electric plants by regions
Number of region (Fig. 2.2) Name of reservoir (type of inflow) Period with stationary climate Changes in water inflow in 1980-2000 to its value for stationary period Probable changes in inflow in 2010-2015 to its value for the period of stationary climate,
1 Nizhne-Tulomskoye (lateral) 1950-1979 8 (5-10)
Verkhnesvirskoye (total) 1950-1979 12 (5-10)
2 Volkhovskoye (total) 1950-1979 25 (10-15)
3 Sheksninskoye (total) 1950-1979 22 (10-15)
Rybinskoye (lateral) 1950-1979 17 (10-15)
Ivankovskoye (total) 1950-1979 30 (10-15)
Uglichskoye (lateral) 1950-1979 40 (10-15)
Gorkovskoye (lateral) 1950-1979 22 (10-15)
5 Tsimlyanskoye (total) 1950-1979 -5 -(0-5)
Krasnodarskoye (total) 1950-1979 2 -(0- 5)
6 Volgogradskoye(lateral) 1950-1979 10 (10-15)
Kamskoye (total) 1950-1979 8 (10-15)
Votkinskoye (lateral) 1950-1979 15 (10-15)
Number of region (Slide 4) Name of reservoir (type of inflow) Period with stationary climate Changes in water inflow in 1980-2000 to its value for stationary period Probable changes in inflow in 2010-2015 to its value for the period of stationary climate,
6 Cheboksarskoye (lateral) 1950-1979 12 (10-15)
Kuibyshevskoye (lateral) 1950-1979 19 (10-15)
Saratovskoye (lateral) 1950-1979 29 (10-15)
Iriklinskoye (total) 1950-1979 30 (10-15)
Pavlovskoye (total) 1950-1979 9 (10-15)
9 Novosibirskoye (total) 1950-1979 -7 -(5-15)
10 Sayano-Shushenskoye (total) 1959-1979 7 0
Irkutskoye (total) 1959-1979 11 (0-10)
Bratskoye (lateral) 1959-1979 -4 (0-5)
Ust-Ilimskoye (lateral) 1959-1979 0 (0-5)
11 Krasnoyarskoye (lateral) 1959-1979 0 (0-5)
12 Vilyuiskoye (total) 1950-1979 14 (5-15)
13 Kolymskoye (total) 1950-1979 -2 (0-5)
14 Zeiskoye (total) 1950-1979 -4 -(0-5)
30
????????????? ????????????? ??????? ? ???????????
????????????? ??? ????????? ?????????????
????????? Annual distribution of water inflow to
the Tsimlyansk Reservoir (Don river) under
various climate scenarios
31
?????????????? ????????? ???????? ? ????????????
?? ????? ???????? ?????? ? 2010-2015 ??.
Characteristics of changes in flood situations on
the rivers of Russia by 2010-2015
? ????????? ?????????? ????? ?????? ????????,
??? ????? ???? ????????? ??????? ? ???????????? ?
, ? ??????? ?????????? (????? ???), ?
??????????? ??????? ? ?????????? ???????
?????????? ?????? ? ?? ?????????
The numerator represents increase in the number
of river plots where will be rise of maximum
stages with floods in and of flood frequency
(number of cases) the denominator represents
average and maximum increase of maximum stage in
of amplitude
32
??????????????? ?????? ? ????????? ??????????
????? ??? ?????? ? ?????? ???????? XXI
????????Preliminary conclusions on probable
changes in river runoff in Russia in the first
half of XXI century

• ? ???????????? ? ???????????? ? ??? ????????, ?
  ????? ????????????, ??????????? ? ??????? ???????
  ?????? (???, ??? ??, ?????), ?????????????? ? ???
  ??????? ??????? ?????????? ?????? ????????
  (???????? ?????) ??? ???????? ?????, ??????,
  ???, ??????, ????
• ?? ????????????? ????? ???????? ????? ????????
  ???????? ?????????? ????????, ????????? ????????
  ????? ? ????? ????? ?????????? ? ???????? 10
• ??? ???-???????? ????? ??? ????????????? ??????
  ????? ????? ?????????????? ????????, ?? ?????????
  ????????? ????? ???????? ?????????? ????????
  ????? ?? 15-20

• According to assessments of the SHI, as well as
  to results acquired in scientific centers of
  Russia (MGO, IFA RAS, AARI), UK and USA, increase
  of water resources is anticipated in the basins
  of Severnaya Dvina, Pechora, Ob, Yenisey and
  Lena
• At the most part of the Volga basin an increase
  of water resources is mostly probable, growth of
  annual runoff by 10 is expected in the Volga
  mouth
• For the South-West part of European territory of
  Russia perspective assessments of runoff changes
  are quite discrepant, according to several
  scenarios decrease of annual runoff by 15-20 is
  possible.

33
?????? ??????? ????????????
Tasks for scientific investigations

• ???????? ? ????????????????? ????????????
  ??????????? ??????? ?????????? ?? ????????
  (?????? ????? ?? ????????), ????????????????
  ????????????????, ??????? ????????? ? ??
  ?????????????? ?? ???? ?????????? ??????
• ?????????? ????? ???????? ? ?????????
  ????????????? ????????? ?? ????????? ???????????,
  ?????????????? ? ????????? ???????? ??????
• ???????? ????????????????? ? ?????????????
  ???????????? ??? ????????????????? ???????
  ???????????? ??????? ?????, ??????????? ???????
  ????????? ??? ???? ???????? ?????? ?????????
  ??????????? ????????? ??????? ? ?????????????
  ???????????? ?? ??????????
• ????????, ?????? ? ??????? ??????? ?????????
  ?????? ???????? ? ???????????????? ?????? ??
  ?????????? ?????, ????????? ? ??????????????
  ?????????

• Expansion and improvement of complex monitoring
  the system of observing climate (primarily
  precipitation), hydrological characteristics, and
  water resources and their use on the territory of
  Russia
• Development of more reliable and detailed
  climatic scenarios for the nearest decades
  adapted for different regions of Russia
• Improvement of experimental and theoretic studies
  for improvement of the models of river runoff
  generation, which would allow reliable
  assessments of consequences of climate change and
  economic activities for all regions of Russia
• Study, assessment, and forecasting of the
  influence of changes in water resources and the
  hydrological regime on the environment and
  socio-economic conditions

34
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Thank you for your attention