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Exchange Of Foresight Relevant Experiences for
Small European and Enlargement Countries
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Outline

• Transition Country Foresight
• Insights from eFORESEE
• Redefining Foresight
• Creative Methods and Approaches
• Hidden Challenges
• Constraining factors
• Current application of results
• Foresight challenges

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Transition Country Context

• In a transition economy context where systematic
  approaches to policy are often not appreciated,
  basic yet smart approaches methods are called
  for.
• EU-driven and EU policy-related exercises are
  likely to be viewed more favourably
• EU transnational foresight can prove more visible
  and relevant in terms of benchmarking and policy
  learning especially for a small country however
  there are constraints in implementation.

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Transition Country Context

• Adapting foresight to the transition country
  context requires
• redefining foresight to the local context
• creative use and adaptation of methods and
  approaches
• a focus on hidden challenges, e.g. societal
  concerns
• a ongoing communications and learning strategy
• a balance between tangible and intangible
  benefits

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Insights from a transnational exercise eFORESEE

• The three partner countries shared a common
  challenge of introducing foresight into a
  transition economy context and into a policy
  system which was undergoing fast pressures of
  change in the critical pre-accession phase.
• The main challenges in this context which have
  come to the fore during implementation of the
  project, are the need to activate and support
  fast policy learning and unlearning processes,
  and the need to bridge the divide between
  policy-makers and society by engaging able new
  actors and moving towards more consensus-oriented
  dialogue.

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Traditional definitions

• A tool or set of tools used to survey as
  systematically as possible what chances for
  development and what options for action are open
  at present, and then follow up analytically to
  determine to what alternative future outcomes the
  developments would lead Martin Irvine
• 2. Foresight is more than just a set of tools,
  and involves a process whereby the tools are just
  one element, interacting with human inputs of
  intellect, expertise and sector-specific
  knowledge. a process - a systematic,
  participatory, future intelligence-gathering and
  medium-to-long-term vision-building process
  FOREN Guide

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The learning dimension

• But foresight is essentially embodied in the
  actors involved in its design and implementation
  and may be defined in relation to two key human
  attributes
• 3. foresight as a philosophy or particular
  mindset/approach to life evident at the
  individual or group level. It separates the
  proactive from the reactive, the path-dependent
  from the path-breakers. (Pace Harper)
• 4. foresight as a capacity for contemplating,
  anticipating and coping with the future also
  evident at the individual or group level. It
  entails a set of skills which can be taught but
  presumes a mindset open to creative thinking and
  proactive exploration of the future. (Pace
  Harper)

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Redefining Foresight

• The foresight process involves intense iterative
  phases of open reflection, networking,
  consultation, and discussion leading to the joint
  refining of future visions and the common
  ownership of strategies, with the aim of
  exploiting long-term opportunities opened up
  through the impact of STI on society .
• It is the discovery of a common space for open
  thinking on the future and the incubation of
  strategic approaches in this sense the
  foresight process has no beginning or end, since
  it builds on previous and ongoing conversations
  and consultations and sets in motion learning
  curves and other intangible spin-offs which are
  not easily captured in short timeframes

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Creative methods and approaches
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The Hidden Challenges
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Ongoing Communications Learning

• Communications and learning were considered a
  vital element of the foresight exercise and the
  communications/ marketing strategy was given a
  central place in the exercise both in terms of
  engaging policy-makers, stakeholders and the
  public.
• Project launch through EOIs and a number of open,
  dissemination events attracting the media
• On-line consultations and dedicated mailing lists
  via eFORESEE website
• A number of training activities in foresight
  basics to ensure that the dialogue did not revert
  to the usual unstructured discussion in such
  consultations.

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Foresight as timeless live dialogue

• Foresight as a tool for achieving turn-around
  from vicious to virtuous circles in policy
  development through dialogue and
  consensus-building
• Building on previous vision-setting processes
• Fusing STI and socio-cultural foresight in
  design, scoping, process, methods and
  dissemination
• Actors as real drivers - targeting their inputs
• Bringing implementation into design
• Foresight as timeless live dialogue linkage
  with ongoing strategic conversations and current
  societal concerns.

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Shared space for learning

• Use of the eFORESEE site and mailing lists to
  engage strategic players, new actors and external
  experts in the discussions, has helped to make
  local players more aware of science, technology
  and innovation policy concerns
• Open facility to share documents, proposals,
  ideas, and news has brought important knowledge
  and opportunities to the attention of local
  players and continues to be appreciated by the
  subscribers as a free source for receiving key
  STI Policy updates

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Intangible, unforeseen benefits

• A less-emphasized benefit of a foresight exercise
  is its facility to make transparent policy
  processes and structures and to bring to the fore
  key challenges and key individuals or champions
  to the cause.
• It also helps to identify hidden obstacles to the
  introduction of more informed, transparent, open
  participatory processes to governance as well as
  other barriers hindering the wiring up the
  national system of innovation

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Constraining Factors

• Differing Contexts (socio-economic, cultural
  differences..)
• Different sponsors/clients
• Similar goals but different priorities
• Implementation styles vary
• Diverse foresight capacities/competencies
• Time constraints for learning activity
• Few examples of successful transnational
  foresight activity involving mutual learning

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National RDIST Strategy 2006-8 DRAFT Terms of
Reference

• To assess the local academic capability and
  potential in various sectors
• To assess the local industry capability and
  potential in various sectors
• To identify the constraints and opportunities
  resulting from Maltas geophysical and other
  characteristics (physical size, population size,
  geographical location)
• To assess the suitability of the various sectors
  (and niche areas) for focused effort to Malta, in
  terms of their potential to generate revenue,
  employment and growth.
• To deliver a 3-year strategic plan identifying
  the sectoral areas where Malta should focus its
  effort

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Dovetailing with Related Initiatives

• National Reform Programme
• MARIS
• ETAP
• Euro-Med ITI
• Tax Review Commission process
• Higher Education Reform process
• National ICT Strategy and other strategic
  sectoral plans

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Methodology

• Stakeholder-mapping (university, industry, other)
• Questionnaire-based survey for priority-setting
• Commissioning of expert reports
• Horizon-scanning exercise
• Meetings with industry representatives
• Sectoral consultations and targeted 1-1 meetings
• Prepare consultation document
• Review feedback and revise if necessary

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Foresight Challenges

• Foresight methods and results are still not
  sufficiently in tune with policy-makers
  expectations and needs
• Fast changing backdrop to policy-making
  constant interplay between national and global
  contexts/events
• Fast policy learning/unlearning and iterations
• Reconciling long-term strategies with short-term
  disruptions/crises in policy processes
• Need for ongoing implementation and fast results
• Addressing publicly visible issues and concerns
• Results which are appreciated by society/voters!

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Foresight Challenges

• Foresight still has seemingly limited impact on
  RTDI policy it remains outside the inner
  circle!
• Policy-makers are not obliged to follow the
  recommendations of their foresight exercises ?
  But then should they be?
• Do foresight exercises deliver what
  policy-makers, expect, want or need? Investments
  in second rounds of foresight in new M/S proving
  difficult to justify
• Why?? Reasons vary from one country to another
  but resources are limited and senior
  policy-makers sceptical over cost/benefits of
  such investments
• Way forward?