International Workshop on FORESIGHT Sofia, Bulgaria June 1920, 2003

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International Workshop on FORESIGHTSofia,
Bulgaria June 19-20, 2003
Mainly structured from Prof. Ian Miles
(PREST)spresentations papers on scenarios

• Scenarios Foresight
• Creating visions of the future

Rafael Popper Research Associate Rafael.Popper_at_man
.ac.uk
Dobar den!
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Outline

• What Scenarios are
• Varieties of Scenarios
• Ways of Producing Scenarios
• Using Scenarios in Foresight
• Common attitudes
• theres nothing to it only particularly
  gifted gurus can do it
• Not so! Learning from experience (though not
  well collated)...

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Prospective Studies

• More than forecasting, but builds on forecasting
  methods and results
• Task of synthesis, striving for holism
• Implicit or explicit theories essential
• Issues of consistency and validity
• Foresight and strategic prospective

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Scenarios
The precise definition of scenario is a tool
for ordering ones perceptions about alternative
future environments in which ones decisions
might be played out. Alternatively a set of
organised ways for us to dream effectively about
our own future.
Peter Schwartz, The Art of The Long View
(Doubleday Currency, 1992) p4
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A Successful Scenario

• Describes the possible future changes in a
  particular system, domain, environment,
  society, etc.
• Involves the imagination
• Is written in the past or present tense - as if
  the visualized trends events had already
  happened
• Indicates the causes and consequences of key
  developments
• Challenges our current images conjectures about
  the future
• Helps us to create and evaluate alternative
  policies, strategies and actions
• Is seen as relevant and an important element of
  the strategic decision/policy making process

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What for?

• Decisions/policies
• background information
• strategic planning
• specific action courses
• Debate
• consensus-building
• vision-sharing
• opinion-forming
• Analysis
• research contexts
• methodologies...

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Scenarios of what?

• CRITICAL FEATURE OF CONTEXT
• evolution of market, of geopolitics, of
  technology
• MULTIPLE FEATURES OF CONTEXT
• selection of key parameters, and/or STEEPV
  analysis

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PROBLEMS

• Lack of accumulation of knowledge
• Methodological base
• Quality control
• Gurus and charismatic
• Fashion
• Lack of respectability
• Absorption capacity of users/ presentation of
  complexity and uncertainty

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Approaching the Future
Exploratory
Time series extrapolation Regression
analyses Multivariate models Simulations Nonlinear
models, genetic algorithms, etc. (Scenarios) Sc
enarios and profiles Technology sequence
Scenarios Delphi (standard), surveys
Probabilistic methods (cross-impact, trend
impact) Focus groups, interviews, expert
groups Genius forecasting SF Scenarios Goals
delphi, surveys Morphological methods Scenario
workshops, focus groups, interviews, expert
groups Genius forecasting SF
Expert Based
Data-Based
Normative
Based on Ian Miles, presentation at UNU/CRIS
(2003)
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How to get it Wrong (Coates)

• Mechanical Extrapolation
• Limits, ceilings, qualitative change
• Unexamined assumptions (-isms)
• Limited Expertise
• failure to see limits, connections
• Limited Vision
• failure to see outsiders, novelty, significant
  events

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Criteria for Scenarios
Elaborated from RB Heydinger RD Zentner 1983
Multiple Scenario Analysis New Directions for
Institutional Research no 39

• Intelligible, choice criteria clear
• Interesting (illustrated, concrete examples)
• Plausible (history, consistency, worldview)
• Useful
• Data provided relevant to key issues
• Relevant to decision needs

• Hard to follow, over-complex, too numerous
• Dull, abstract (schematic)
• Hard to believe or identify processes
• Difficult to apply
• Lacks relevant data (diffuse)
• Limited articulation with decision needs

VS.
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Priority Scenarios
Likelihood/Feasibility
Substantial Attention/ Strong Emphasis
high
Scan, use as baseline/ Increased Selectivity
Some Attention/ Increased Selectivity
Scan, Examine wild cards / Increased Selectivity
Limited Attention/ Little Emphasis, Support
Importance/ Attractiveness
high
low
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Exploratory Method
Trends, processes
Course of events (future history)
Outcome of events (image of future)
Events, strategies
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Normative Method
Critical end-state (profile of future)
Critical event path
Trends, processes
Events, strategies
Outcome of events (image of future)
Course of events (future history)
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Scenario Construction Normative and
Worldview-based

P
Profiles of
Goals/values
Theories/frameworks
Profiles of future


Events


Histories of future
SCENARIOS
I
I
I
I
Images of future
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Scenario Construction Exploratory
Research/debate on data and theory
Interests and values
Data sources
Theory articulation
Assessment of likelihood of actions, trends and
impacts
Assessment of desirability of outcomes
Construction of histories and images of future
Presentation of scenarios, confrontation with
other studies, audiences
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What are scenarios? The term has a dual meaning
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What are scenarios? The term has a dual meaning

• IMAGE OF THE FUTURE - description of a future set
  of circumstances, a portrait of the state of
  affairs (at a more or less tightly specified date
  or period, or after a particular set of
  developments)
• FUTURE HISTORY - description of a future course
  of events, sequence of developments, often
  highlighting key events, decisions, or turning
  points

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Why multiple scenarios?

• To illustrate alternatives, indicate a range of
  plausible developments (not one inevitable future
  path) to assess robustness of strategies to
  stimulate reflection on underlying assumptions.
• To give insight into contexts and outcomes
  (intended or otherwise) of actions, conditions
  when objectives may be realised to help identify
  turning points, key decisions, indicators, early
  warnings of change..

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How many?

• One scenario may be used, usually as a
  presentational device, to illustrate a particular
  future.

• Several scenarios may be presented to indicate
  different facets of essentially the same future -
  illustration, a tool for elaborating ideas, for
  exploring the consistency of different lines of
  thought.

• Multiple scenario analysis is employed to
  consider alternative paths of development and
  their implications.

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The Ins and Outs of Scenario Analysis
Starting from the present (exploratory) What
next? What if?
OUTWARD
INWARD
Starting from the future (normative) Where
to? How to?
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Outward The Principle
OUTWARD
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Inward The Principle
Critical end-state (profile of future)
INWARD
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Outward Scenarios - Example
Trends and events of particular interest to users
- not necessarily preferable ones
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Inward Scenarios - Example
Futures of particular interest to users - not
necessarily desirable ones thus a PROFILE
approach
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Inward Scenarios - Workshop Example
A desirable futures of particular interest to
users - the SUCCESS SCENARIO (also a PROFILE
approach)
Indicators of realisation and progress
Background inputs
Specification of feasible, desirable future
Actions and responsible parties
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Scenario Building, like Foresightmay emphasise

• Product (codified outputs) - reports, books,
  videos. Discursive accounts, summaries, action
  lists and priorities. Inputs to decision making.
  Scenarios integrate diverse studies,
  concretise and communicate visions suggest
  action points and key indicators
• Process (embodied knowledge) - forging and
  enriching networks, developing knowledge about
  knowledge. Establishing and empowering
  constituencies for action. Scenario analysis
  recruit support, integrate diverse viewpoints
  share fuse visions, provide focus for joint
  work.
• The big question What sort of mix?

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Building Scenarios

• Clarifying Purposes, Audiences
• Identify Key Drivers
• Develop themes, stories
• Compare relevant elements
• Check wildcards

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A Spectrum of Scenario Methods

• Surveys, clustering articulated viewpoints
• Expert Groups with systematic tools
• Stakeholders Interest Map (SIM)
• Workshops
• .. Beginning to see computer support

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Ups and Downs of Scenario Analysis
Developed in workshop, etc., by at least some
users.
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Outward Scenarios, top-down, based on different
worldviews
Where are we now? Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
How much change to expect how similar to
present...
Paperless Society
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Inwards Scenario based on expert workshops
(plus..)
IPTS/ISTAG Ambience
? REQUIREMENTS ?Sociopolitical ? Business
Industrial Models ? Technology
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Inwards Scenario using expert workshops
Success in 2005
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Importance-Uncertainty Matrix
Importance
Traditional Strategic Planning
Scenario Planning
Daily Decision Making
Management
Uncertainty
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There are many ways to present and communicate
scenarios, e.g.

• HISTORIES
• Flow charts
• Trend analysis
• narratives (press reports historians
  reflections)
• strategy games

• IMAGES
• Tables
• Charts
• narratives (press stories diaries)
• portrait of organisation/ market/ actors...

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Possibly use Signposts

• Indicators of events in the scenario
• Expressed as headlines in the media
• Provide a focus for subsequent environmental
  scanning, monitoring

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Possibly use Wildcards

• What surprises have we not considered?
• Which of these, along with the signposts, should
  be monitored going forward?

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Exercise 3.a - Driving Forces

• Working in groups, you will be allocated a
  heading (e.g. e-governance, biotechnology)
• Define two driving forces within that heading
  which you think will have a major impact on
  shaping Bulgaria over the next 20 years (e.g.
  extent of integration to the EU, quality of life)
• For each driving force define at least four
  different possible outcomes
• Write the name of each driving force and the
  outcome on a separate sheet

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Exercise 3.b - Defining Scenarios

• Working in 4 groups, select one of the outcomes
  from each of the driving forces defined earlier -
  the outcomes chosen do not have to fit together
  logically
• Using the set of outcomes as a start point,
  develop a plausible scenario of what Bulgaria
  would look like on 2025
• You can present your scenario back in whatever
  way you think most appropriate - picture, one act
  play, news report, day in the life, etc.

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Tips for writing the scenarios

• Explore the local environment
• Extrapolate Change Drivers
• Decide on Level of Uncertainty and Importance
• Generate Impacts
• Outline Skeletal Scenarios
• Find Leverage Points for change
• Create Preferred Vision

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Conclusion Scenarios are

• Potentially very useful, but have to be
  appropriate to purposes, audience, etc
• Whether product or process, scenario analysis can
  articulate communicate Foresight.
• Not magic - a combination of expertise and
  craft.
• Capable of being produced in many different ways
  there may be a best way for a given situation,
  but there is no one all-purpose best way.
• Sometimes fun to produce sometimes fun to read,
  usually hard work to create (OK) often hard work
  to use (this is not OK)!

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Blagodarya!Thank you!

• Rafael Popper
• PREST, University of Manchester, UK

Rafael.Popper_at_man.ac.uk http//les1.man.ac.uk/PRES
T
Dobar den!
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Exercise 3- Scenarios for Bulgaria 2025(30
minutes)

• Please get together in 4 groups
• You will be assigned one of the SWOT elements
• Discuss about Bulgarian CC (Competences
  Capabilities) or lack of them as well as / -
  circumstances affecting the country by 2025
• Nominate one group Facilitator one Secretary
• Use results from STEEPV exercise together with
  the regional comparison of this presentation as
  starting points for your discussion
• Identify a maximum of 10 issues (up to 15 words
  each)
• Rank the level of importance of each issue (1-10)
  and assign a level of uncertainty from 1-10
  (10very uncertain)
• The facilitator will try to keep conversation
  alive/dynamic
• The secretary will try to take notes of most
  relevant issues