The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12

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The 4th International Seville Conference
onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)12
13 May 2011
Building FTA capacities for systemic and
structural transformations New FTA systems For
anticipatory action in a fast-changing world
Matthias Weber1, Jennifer Cassingena Harper2,
Totti Könnölä3, Vicente Carabias Barceló4
1 AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Austria
2 Malta Council for Science and Technology,
Malta 3 Impetu Solutions, Spain 4 Institute for
Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS),
Spain
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FTA capacities for systemic and structural
transformations
Outline

• Guiding Questions
• Drivers of FTA
• Towards a Conceptual Framework for FTA systems
• Types of Transformations
• Types of governance modes in FTA systems
• Types of organisational models of FTA
• Mapping of FTA systems in practice
• Conclusions

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FTA capacities for systemic and structural
transformations
Guiding Questions

• What areas and types of transformations will we
  need to be prepared to handle? And what kinds of
  requirements for FTA result from these?
• What kinds of models for FTA systems do exist?
  How can they be systematized in conceptual terms?
• What kinds of models do work in practice? Which
  ones are suitable to meet which requirements?
  What are the experiences?
• What do these findings suggest with regard to the
  future direction to take for organising FTA?

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FTA capacities for systemic and structural
transformations
Introduction

• Transformations are driving governments and
  businesses
• to shift FTA activities from individual
  large-scale foresight programmes and projects,
• to invest in developing in-house competencies for
  coping with sudden change
• Advantages and disadvantages of emerging models
  of FTA systems
• This is leading to combinations of elements from
  different systems

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FTA capacities for systemic and structural
transformations Paper title
Drivers of change in FTA
External

• The fast-changing, turbulent and complex
  environment is leading to a tighter embedding of
  FTA in support of decision making.
• This is rendering the interpretation of
  contextual developments very difficult and
  challenging.
• Internal
• There are also internal drivers for the emergence
  of novel forms of future intelligence which are
  linked to the need to achieve coordinated and
  coherent decisions within and across
  organisations.
• As a consequence, there is a growing need for the
  capacity to anticipate change to be centrally
  embedded in policy and decision making, and to
  achieve this embedding quickly and strategically.

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FTA capacities for systemic and structural
transformations
Towards a Conceptual Framework
Our frame of analysis of FTA systems builds on

• the different types of transformations
• taking into account the speed of change and
  types of responses they generate
• the types of wider institutional context
• governance modes based on density of group ties
  and influence of external rules
• the different organisational models for FTA
• three main types of models

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Types of Transformation
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FTA systems and modes of governance
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Modes of Governance
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FTA capacities for systemic and structural
transformations
Ideal-type models of FTA

1. individual FTA projects or programmes of limited
   duration and with targeted objectives
2. dedicated FTA units providing continuous input to
   their embedding or mother organisations
3. FTA networks as informal yet stable settings
   allowing the bundling or coordination of
   resources and competencies

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FTA capacities for systemic and structural
transformations
Conclusions

• New kinds of FTA and associated rationales for
  FTA are emerging in response to a highly dynamic
  environment (disruptive events) and to societal
  challenges
• robustness and adaptability of the RI ecology
• new missions in response to societal challenges
• customisation to particular local, national,
  global contexts
• preparation of new forms of joint action (e.g.
  Joint Programming)
• FTA facility tending towards more embedded,
  internationally networked and multifunctional
  setups addressing various needs reactively and
  proactively.
• FTA practice indicates considerable diversity of
  FTA approaches and systems experimenting with
  combinations of types of transformations, modes
  of governance and organisational models

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FTA capacities for systemic and structural
transformations
Conclusions

• The complementarity between the models of FTA is
  apparent with service providers and FTA units,
  thus blurring the divide between the two, with
  both drawing extensively on networks, and
  dedicated units being involved in
  projects/programmes.
• The shift from projects and programmes of short
  duration to institutionalised forms of FTA is
  nevertheless apparent due to a more demanding
  policy environment and the need for more
  proactive approaches.
• Changing mindsets are needed within firms,
  government organisations and society in order to
  sensitize individuals to use FTA to prepare for
  structural changes