How to mitigate the coming transportation energy crisis -A Technology Perspective-

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How to mitigate the coming transportation energy
crisis-A Technology Perspective-

• Dr. Marc Melaina, Senior Engineer
• Hydrogen Technologies and Systems Center
• National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Presentation for the San Antonio Transportation
Choices Forum March 28th, 2008
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Presentation Overview

• Challenges for Transportation Energy
• Running out of cheap oil
• Climate change
• Urban air pollution
• What can we do about it?
• Drive less and use other transportation options
• Change the cars we drive
• Change the fuels used in our cars
• Closing Thoughts

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Challenges for Transportation Energy
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The U.S. Energy System
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Transportation Energy
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Oil Imports Hinder the U.S. Economy

• About 65 of the oil we consume is imported
• Oil imports accounted for 33 of the 2006 trade
  deficit (270 B)
• Ethanol production displaced 0.47 mbpd in 2006
  (equal to 11 B)

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Americans Love their Cars
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Light-Duty Vehicles by Region
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Shape of this curve is debatable, but the area
under the curve is fixed
Rough Transition
Smooth Transition
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Unconventional Fossil Fuel Resources

• Enhanced Oil Recovery
• 1-2 trillion bbl
• Tar Sands and Heavy Oil
• 0.3-1.5 trillion bbl
• Oil Shale
• 0.2-1.8 trillion bbl
• Coal to Liquids
• 1.6-8.6 trillion bbl
• Major Concerns for Each
• Cost, Water, Carbon Intensity

Oil Shale in the Green River Formation
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The Production Solution
It may be possible to drill ourselves out of
scarcity, at least temporarily. But is that the
direction we want to be headed?
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Climate Change Impacts

• Direct Effects
• Increased stress on water resources (droughts,
  etc.)
• Flooding
• Sea level rise
• Increase of severe weather events
• Decrease (and possible increase) in agricultural
  productivity
• Species migration plants and animals
• Expanding scope of disease vectors (e.g. west
  nile)
• Property damage (especially along coasts)
• Indirect Effects
• Civil unrest and military conflict over resources
• Environmental refugees

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Example of Species Migration
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GHG Reductions to Stabilize
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http//www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/
ewpscience/ewp_targetscience.pdf
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Urban Air Pollution (UAP)

• Megacities Unregulated pollution sources UAP
  deaths

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What can we do about it?
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Mitigation Options

• Drive less and use other transportation modes
• More efficient vehicles
• Vehicle Design light-weight materials
  aerodynamic drag tire rolling resistance
  accessories (e.g. AC)
• Drivetrain diesel hybridization fuel cells

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Mitigation Options

• Alternative Fuels
• Biofuels
• Moving beyond corn cellulosic, waste residues
• Hydrogen and Electricity
• Impacts (and costs!) depend upon energy source
• Renewable energy
• Solar, wind, biomass, geothermal
• Fossil with carbon sequestration
• Nuclear
• No energy sources are perfect
• Need advances in energy storage conversion
• Plug-ins may be a near-term application

• Synergy More efficient vehicles make alt fuels
  easier

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Arent those little cars dangerous?
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Alternatives have Comparable Costs and Benefits
Support all of them?

• If you compare total private and social costs,
  including climate, pollution and energy security,
  there are no clear winners
• In the long-term, vehicles need to achieve deep
  carbon reductions

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Scenario with Relative Potentials

• Potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions
• Strong reductions must continue beyond 2050

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Closing Thoughts
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Climate Change Uncertainty Abounds

• No one can predict the future
• However, we do know this
• The uncertainty surrounding future damage costs
  from climate change are much larger than the
  uncertainty surrounding mitigation costs
• Precautionary action is warranted

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Climate Change Policy States ( Industry) are
Taking the Lead

• Some Perspective on International Climate Change
  Policy
• 157 countries have ratified Kyoto
• Their combined emissions represented 61.6
• of total global GHG emissions
• The graph above indicates the top 56 GHG
  emitters
• 20 of them are U.S. states, 9 of which have
  Climate Action Plans

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Two Critical Uncertainties will Form the Future
of Transportation Energy

• The Price of Oil
• Alternatives need sustained economic advantage
• Advances in Technology Innovation
• Various efficient and low carbon transportation
  technologies are near commercialization
• But they will not be enough advanced and very
  low carbon technologies are needed in next few
  decades

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Thank You!
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Backup Slides
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International VehicleFuel Economy Standards

• Recent Energy Bill (EISA 2007) increases CAFE to
  35 mpg by 2020