Europe-Russia Energy Relations: Security in Diversity?

1
Europe-Russia Energy Relations Security in
Diversity?

• Dr. Andrew Monaghan,
• Research Consultant,
• NATO Defence College

2
Introduction

• Russia in European thinking
• Russia as the problem
• Diversity as the answer?
• Conclusions
• European thinking reactive
• Russia often taken out of context strategically

3
Russia in European Thinking

• Russia is the gravitational focus for European
  thinking
• Evolution in thought
• Politically unreliable
• Oct 2005, Jan 2006, Dec/Jan 2007
• Sustainability
• Gas deficit
• Liberal/monopoly
• Bureaucratic improvement/political deterioration
• Energy security dilemma

4
Russia as the problem

• Energy Superpower?
• Political idea without a strategy
• Unclear national interests
• Gazprom strategy ? Russian strategy
• Incoherence Competition
• Gazprom vs. Rosneft Gazprom vs. State
• Shady re-nationalisation
• Gas deficit
• Domestic consumption/foreign contracts

5
Responses

• Reactive
• Veto, ECT ratification, diversification NATO
• Veto, ECT
• Cohesion of members
• Negotiating against Russias natural advantages

6
Energy Insecurity Responses

• Diversify?
• Already diverse energy type, source, route
• Complicates policy making consensus
• To where?
• Iran? Nigeria
• Energy Security Dilemma
• Sources Markets

7
Energy Insecurity Responses

• NATO
• January 2006 (USA/Ukraine)
• September 2006 Seminar
• Riga Summit
• Strategic Concept
• Military security NATOs energy supply
• Shortage of other options in answer to perceived
  threat
• EU IEA not responsive supportive enough
• Bring in US diplomatic weight

8
NATO energy security

• US Turkey involvement
• Political links to the wider world PfP ICI,
  NRC
• IPAP Azerbaijan
• Military dimension
• Infrastructure security
• Naval protection
• Civil Defence emergency management

9
NATO Energy Insecurity

• The whole chain BUT
• Does not address the key issues investment
• Military alliance involvement creates concerns
  abroad
• Political dimension of energy security
  confidence
• A global thematic rather than regional diplomatic
  role

10
Conclusions

• Energy security is a primarily POLITICAL issue
  is enough resource base
• Tension between existing and reliable resources
• Responses so far REACTIVE undermining energy
  security
• Key responses are domestic efficiency
  investment
• NATO has a global energy security role, albeit
  focused explicitly addressed
• Consumer, Producer Transit often the same NATO
  understands the chain