A Sustainable Energy Future CIBSE North East Technical Meeting 5th December 2005

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A Sustainable Energy FutureCIBSE North East
Technical Meeting5th December 2005

• Barry Robertson

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Acknowledgments

• For statistics, illustrations, scenarios
• Ref A. "Renewable Energy for Europe Research in
  Action" Conference 21-22 November 2005
• http//europa.eu.int/comm/research/energy/gp/gp_ev
  ents/action/article_2790_en.htm
• Ref B. IEA International Energy Agency
• http//www.iea.org
• Ref C. US DoE Department of Energy
• http//www.eia.doe.gov
• Ref D. EU Research Framework Programme projects
• http//cordis.europa.eu.int/en/home.html
• Ref E. Shell Global Solutions
• http//www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteIdglobals
  olutions-en
• Ref F. EEA European Environment Agency
• http//www.eea.eu.int/
• Ref G. Oil Gas Journal
• For some slides, specific references are given on
  the slide

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Contents

• Energy review where we are, where we're heading
• Energy sources and energy technologies
• Research priorities
• EU Research Framework Programme
• No single solution
• Constant change
• Opinions differ
• Many unknowns Enabling technologies, political
  will, environmental change, public opinion

4
Energy reviewWhere we are, where we're heading

• Based on current policies

5
Energy through the centuries (Ref E)
6
World Primary Energy Demand (Ref A)
Reference scenario
7 000
7 000
6 000
6 000
Oil
5 000
5 000
Natural gas
4 000
4 000
Mtoe
Mtoe
3 000
3 000
Coal
2 000
2 000
Other renewables
Nuclear power
1 000
1 000
Hydro power
0
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Fossil fuels account for almost 90 of the growth
in energy demand between now and 2030
7
Increase in World Primary Energy Production by
Region (Ref A)
6 000
share of total increase ()
5 000
4 000
59
3 000
Mtoe
2 000
31
1 000
10
0
1971-2002
2002-2030
OECD
Transition economies
Developing countries
Almost all the increase in production to 2030
outside the OECD
8
Annual Growth in World Gross Domestic Product ()
(Ref C)
9
Lack of access to electricity (Ref A)
In 2030, if no new policies are implemented,
there will still be 1.4 billion people without
electricity
10
World Energy Investment 2001-30 (Ref A)
Source IEA World Energy Investment Outlook 2003
11
Examples of non-RES Energy Investments in next25
years
China 30 nuclear plants in next 20 years, plus
an equivalent of 150 per year of 1000 MW power
stations (coal or hydro) India also high
growth in both coal and nuclear Nuclear growth
(new replacement) by 25-50 in Russia, New MS,
USA, EU e.g. Finland 2005 1600 MW EPR
"Olkiluoto 3" Framatome nuclear island and
Siemens turbine island, cost 3 billion.France
2007 1600 MW EPR reactor at Flamanville,
Normandy
12
World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions (Ref A)
Global emissions grow 62 between now 2030,
with developing countries emissions overtaking
OECDs in the 2020s
13
Energy efficiency and energy saving (ref C)
14
Examples of policy choices
15
How to encourage RES Market Deployment?
US
Tax
OBLIGATIONS
US States
Ireland
Italy
UK
TRADABLE CERTIFICATES
Belgium
Japan
New Zealand
Australia
Norway
Finland
Czech Rep
Austria
Germany
Spain
Sweden
Korea
Denmark
Luxembourg
France
Portugal
Switzerland
Greece
FEED-IN TARIFFS
Canada
Netherlands
Hungary
16
Feed-in tariffs for RES
17
Should external costs be internalised? (ref F)
e.g. External costs of electricity generation,
EU15 (EEA)
18
Support through subsidies? (ref F)Estimates of
total energy subsidies, 2001 (EEA)
"on-budget" cash transfers, low-interest loans,
etc "off-budget" tax exemptions credits,
regulatory support mechanisms or preferential
planning consent.
19
Research expenditure for RES (ref D)
Source REDS research project
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Examples of effects of policy choices
21
(ref B)
22
(ref B)
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IEA Scenario (ref B)Reduction in CO2 Emissions
in OECD
16 000
15 000
2
14 000
Mt of CO
13 000
12 000
11 000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Reference Scenario
CO2 emissions peak around 2020, 25 higher than
in 1990
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Contributory Factors in CO2 reduction (ref B)
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute
more than half of decrease in emissions, and
renewables 20
25
Reduction in Oil Demand in the Alternative
Scenario (ref B)
Oil savings in 2030 would be equivalent to the
combined current production of Saudi Arabia, UAE
and Nigeria
26
Shells 'Dynamics as Usual' long term scenario
a transition to renewables (ref E)
27
Scenario a portfolio of technologies How to
arrive?
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EU Energy targets

• By 2010
• Raise EU-25 RES Electricity generation from 14
  to 21 (RES-e Directive)
• Double RES from 6 to 12 (Green Paper on
  Security of Supply)
• Reduce GHG by 8 compared to 1990 (Kyoto target
  by 2008-12)
• 3 GW PV installed (White Paper Strategy Action
  Plan)
• Liquid biofuels 5.75 of total fuel consumption
  (Biofuels Directive)
• 22 energy savings in buildings (Energy
  Performance of Buildings Directive)
• 18 of electricity produced by cogeneration
  (Cogeneration Directive)
• Eco-design Directive
• By 2020
• 20 energy efficiency improvement (Green Paper
  "Doing more with less")
• Proposal of a Directive on energy services and
  end-use efficiency
• Vision for the long term (Technology Platforms,
  etc)
• PV 4 of world electricity (2030)
• EU Wind capacity 180 GW, incl 70 GW offshore
  (2020)
• Hydrogen economy established (2030-2050)
• Biomass (CHP) Biofuels (transport) bio-diesel,
  bio-ethanol, BTL (biomass to liquid)
  Bio-refineries

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Oil Gas
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Oil Gas Reserves (ref G)

• 50 years of oil, 70 years of gas (as always)
• Reserves known, economically and technically
  recoverable
• Higher prices
• Enhanced oil recovery (60 is left behind), new
  technologies, new resources, new unconventional
  resources
• Energy efficiency important

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(ref E)
32
(ref E)
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(ref E)
Huge amounts of water and energy needed to
produce oil from tar sands Environmental damage
of strip-mining Alberta boom made possible by
recent rise in oil prices - cost-effective at
about 20 a barrel
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(ref E)
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Gas hydrates methane clathrates (ref G)

• Methane clathrate is ice containing a large
  amount of methane within its crystal structure.
• 10x the size of conventional gas reserves
• Found in polar continental sedimentary rocks
  where surface temperatures are lt 0C in oceanic
  sediment at water depths greater than 300m where
  the temperature is around 2C in tundra in
  Siberia and Alaska at lt 800m depth.
• Majority of sites are likely to be too dispersed
  for economic extraction.
• RD project in Japan is aiming for
  commercial-scale extraction by 2016.

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Renewable energy
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RES IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY (EU-15,2002)
EC White paper RES target 12 by 2010
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Are RETs Competitive ?
Wholesale
Retail
Power
Power
Small Hydro
Solar Photovoltaics
Concentrating Solar
Biomass
Geothermal
Wind
10
20
30
40
50
Power Generation
Costs
in USD
Cents/ kWh
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BIOMASS
Flexi-fuel car
Domestic stove Courtesy RIKA Herz, Austria
Värnamo, Sweden Integrated Gasification Combined
Cycle, 6 MWe, 9MWth. CHRISGAS project
Alholmens Kraft, Finland Combustion power plant,
240 MWe
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BIOMASS

• Versatile energy - used for heat, electricity,
  fuels
• Today covers 4 of the EU energy needs
• EU leading position in combustion and
  gasification
• Technological prospects
• Biofuels for transport
• Biorefinery Sustainable products and energy

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From fossil to renewable transport fuels (ref E)

• 100 renewable fuels
• Fuels from biomass
• Hydrogen from solar, biomass or wind

Eco-ethanol blends (e.g. straw based)
BLENDS
Bio-ethanol blends (e.g. grain/sugar based)
Biomass to Liquid (BTL) blends
Gas to Liquid (GTL) blends
BLENDS
Now Improved conventional gasoline
Fuels must operate in total vehicle fleet and
hence develop in step with engine technology
Bio-diesel blends (e.g. RME based)
Now Improved conventional diesel
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PHOTOVOLTAICS
Wesco Court, UK 41 sheltered houses
Lehrter station, Berlin, 3311 m2
1.2 km sound barrier, A92 motorway, Germany
Stand alone system, Bolivia
Pictures courtesy of EPIA
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Photovoltaics Technology Platform Vision for
2030 beyond

• 4 of worldwide electricity from PV by 2030
• 1000 GW installed
• steady growth beyond
• Electricity on a large scale at a competitive
  cost
• System cost (/kW) 3 in 2010, 2 in 2020, 1 in
  2030
• Generation cost (c/kWh) 25-65c in 2005, halved
  by 2015, 5-12c by 2030
• European leadership in a competitive PV market
• Economic growth, employment and exports
• In industrialised markets and off-grid in
  developing countries
• Research priorities
• Lower costs
• higher efficiency modules, cells and systems
• longer lifetimes and improved reliability
• new materials
• manufacturing technologies

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PHOTOVOLTAICS

• 35 annual growth during the last 10 years
• Turnover close to 2 billion Euro in Europe and
  5.2 worldwide in 2004
• One out of every four cells produced worldwide is
  manufactured in the EU. Japan is the world leader
• The price of PV modules has decreased by a factor
  of 3 since 1990
• Technological prospects
• Crystalline silicon
• Thin film materials
• New cell concepts

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WIND
Oberzeiring, Austria, 20MW
Horn rev, Denmark, 160 MW
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WIND

• EU wind industry has 90 of the world equipment
  market
• EU wind industry employs 72.000 people up from
  25.000 in 1998
• Cost per kWh have fallen by 50 over the last 15
  years
• Technological prospects
• Offshore wind
• Up-scale turbines
• Grid integration is becoming a challenge

Ø Rotor diameter
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Tower 100 m for 126 dia 5 MW, tower 120-140 m for
160 dia 10 MW Intermittency can be overcome by
wide geographical spread, grid development.
Approx 3x needed. Otherwise need reliable
spinning reserve. Power density 5MW nacelle
blades weight 400 tonnes Jumbo Jet Gas turbine
0.3 0.4 MWe / tonne 5MW for 12 tonnes Blade
swept area two football pitches
48
GEOTHERMAL
Rig installation in Soultz, France Hot Dry Rock
project
Geller Hotel, Budapest
Nesjavellir, Iceland CHP plant 90 MWe, 500-800
l/s heating water.
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GEOTHERMAL

• Independent of weather and climatic conditions,
  it delivers heat and power 24 hours a day
  throughout the year.
• In EU 95 000 dwellings are heated by geothermal
  energy
• More 5 TWh of electricity were produced in 2002
• Technological prospects
• Heat pumps
• Hot dry rock

EurObservEr 2004
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OCEAN

• Many technologies are at prototype testing stage
• The EU Wave Dragon project is the worlds first
  off-shore wave energy converter producing power
  for public use.

Tidal current turbine, 300 kW prototype SEAFLOW
project
Wave energy converter, 20 kW prototype WAVE
DRAGON project
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SOLAR THERMAL

• 1.45 million m2 of solar thermal collectors were
  installed in 2003
• Solar thermal covers 65 of the warm water needs
  in Greek
• households, in Cyprus up to 90.
• Concentrated solar thermal yields temperatures of
  400-1000?C (electricity).

Central tower test facility, Almeria, Spain
Solar thermal collector, Greece
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Key priorities

• Effort towards cost effectiveness (through
  development of innovative materials, improvement
  of system efficiency, improvement of reliability,
  etc). basis for further market penetration..
• Increase manufacturing infrastructure and improve
  their production process
• Grid integration and management of intermittent
  technologies necessary for increasing market
  share.
• Environmental and social acceptance issues
  mitigations measures, planning permitting,
  capacity building
• Long term and stable policy and measures to be
  developed further
• Extend and increase research and demonstration
  of new products, new applications, innovative
  technologies, innovative system management

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Hydrogen Fuel Cells
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Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Platform Vision 2030
Fossil fuels still main primary energy Fuel cells
use fossil fuel at high efficiency and
significantly reduce CO2 emissions. Fuel cell
systems commercially available at 1,000 to 1,500
/kW (larger systems). 2050 Decentralised
electricity generation powered by portfolio of
renewables and clean technologies with a strong
fuel cell component.
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Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technology Platform

• 2010 Early markets - specialist vehicles (e.g.
  forklifts), portables
• 2015 Stationary - e.g. CHP in buildings,
  distributed generation
• 2020 Transport introduction of road vehicles
• 2050 Vision Established and competitive in
  transport, industry, buildings

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Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technology Platform

• 10-year RD and Demonstration Programme
• H2 production technologies
• steam reforming combined with C2 capture
  storage
• from renewables
• Lower cost production distribution by gt3
• H2 storage
• Gas, liquid, solid
• Energy storage density, cycle cost, energy
  efficiency, safety
• Critical for transport applications
• Fuel cells
• Improved durability, performance, cost reduced by
  gt10
• Mass production technology
• Policy frameworks financing infrastructure,
  standards

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CO2 Capture Storage (CCS)
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CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)

• Still at RD stage
• Geological storage in aquifers or depleted oil
  and gas reservoirs theoretical capacity of
  hundreds of years, but in reality?
• Or chemical binding as carbonates using silicates
  such as olivine
• Statoil Sleipner oil platform has been
  demonstrating feasibility of CCS since 1996 in
  the Utsira aquifer
• Norway has committed to install CCS on all new
  gas power stations, using the CO2 for Enhanced
  Oil Recovery if feasible
• But it uses energy and reduces efficiency
  currently doubles the cost of electricity
  production
• (CO2 tax/permits would encourage not ony CCS, but
  also make RES more cost-competitive)

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Fusion energy
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ITER
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Fusion long term planning
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ITER

• Hydrogen plasma torus at over 100 M C, to
  produce 500 MW of fusion power
• International project China, EU, CH, Japan,
  Korea, Russia, USA
• Technically ready to start construction
• First plasma operation expected in 2016
• ITER site at Cadarache, France
• Construction and running costs about 12 Billion

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European Union Energy
65
EU Energy targets

• By 2010
• Raise EU-25 RES Electricity generation from 14
  to 21 (RES-e Directive)
• Double RES from 6 to 12 (Green Paper on
  Security of Supply)
• Reduce GHG by 8 compared to 1990 (Kyoto target
  by 2008-12)
• 3 GW PV installed (White Paper Strategy Action
  Plan)
• Liquid biofuels 5.75 of total fuel consumption
  (Biofuels Directive)
• 22 energy savings in buildings (Energy
  Performance of Buildings Directive)
• 18 of electricity produced by cogeneration
  (Cogeneration Directive)
• Eco-design Directive
• By 2020
• 20 energy efficiency improvement (Green Paper
  "Doing more with less")
• Proposal of a Directive on energy services and
  end-use efficiency
• Vision for the long term (Technology Platforms,
  etc)
• PV 4 of world electricity (2030)
• EU Wind capacity 180 GW, incl 70 GW offshore
  (2020)
• Hydrogen economy established (2030-2050)
• Biomass (CHP) Biofuels (transport) bio-diesel,
  bio-ethanol, BTL (biomass to liquid)
  Bio-refineries

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Towards the Seventh Framework Programme2007-2013
EU Research
Building a Europe of Knowledge
European Commission Research DG
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5. Energy
OBJECTIVES Transforming the energy system more
sustainable diverse energy portfolio enhanced
energy efficiency security of supply climate
change competitiveness
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5. Energy
Energy savings and energy efficiency
Hydrogen and fuel cells
Renewable electricity generation
CO2 capture and storage technologies for zero
emission power generation
Renewable fuel production
Clean coal technologies
Smart energy networks
Renewables for heating and cooling
Knowledge for energy policy making
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FP7 Timetable
70
Research filling the gapTotal expenditure on
RD, of GDPBarcelona Summit, 2001
Japan 3.0
USA 2.7
EU-15 1.9
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Whats new in Proposal for FP7?

• Main new elements compared to FP6
• Duration increased from 4 to 7 years
• Annual budget doubled (5 billion ? 10 billion)
• Basic research ( 1.5 billion per year)
• New structure cooperation, ideas, people,
  capacities
• Joint Technology Initiatives

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Specific Programmes
Cooperation Collaborative research
Ideas Frontier Research
People Marie Curie Actions
Capacities Research Capacity

JRC (non-nuclear)
JRC (nuclear)
Euratom
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FP7 budget( billion, current prices)
74
FP7 2007-2013Cooperation budget
75
Financial Perspectives 2007-2013

• Duration 7 years
• 2004 prices 2 predicted inflation current
  prices
• Ramped annual funding gradual increase from FP6

million
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European Technology Platforms

• Bottom-Up Approach with Industry in Lead
• Wide Stakeholder Involvement
• EU Role Facilitating and Guiding but not Leading
  or Owning
• Platforms develop Strategic Research Agendas
  taken into Account in Thematic Priorities of FP7
• Some Potential Joint Technology Initiatives

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Joint Technology Initiatives

• Six Fields Envisaged at this Stage
• innovative medicines
• nanoelectronics
• embedded systems
• aeronautics and air traffic management
• hydrogen and fuel cells
• global monitoring for environment and security
• Other Fields Possible Subsequently
• renewable energy specifically mentioned

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Conclusion