PBS Ratings

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PBS Ratings Season-to-Date Overview
John Fuller PBS Research 1 May 2004
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John Fuller
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When an Entire Industry Changes . . .

• Railroads
• Passenger service (died 1971)
• Interurbans--street cars between towns (died
  1930s)
• Railway Express Agency (died 1975)

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Television Is a Changing Industry. How will it
evolve?

• Railroads gave passenger service to Amtrak and
  went all-freight.
• Interurbans were later replaced by commuter
  railroads and regional subway systems.
• Railway Express Agency gave way to Federal
  Express and UPS.

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Agenda

• PTV prime time trend
• Competition
• Genre/Series
• Specific Programs
• Childrens service
• Pledge effects

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Public Television Prime Time Rating Trend
Source NTI Galaxy Explorer (national people
meter service), October-April each season.
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Common Carriage Program Average
s-t-d Season-to-date
Source Overnight ratings for common carriage
programs, 9/16/01-2/28/02, 9/15/02-2/26/03 and
9/14/03-2/29/04.
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Cume and Time Spent Viewing Full Day Trend

Mins.
Time Spent Viewing
Cume
Source Nielsen Television Activity Reports,
full-season averages
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PTV Median Age Trend
Source NTI Galaxy Explorer (national people
meters), Oct-Apr each season
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SUMMARY

• Prime time dropped after 9/11 steady since.
• Common carriage programs are down slightly.
• Were losing light viewers from the weekly cume.
• Were losing younger viewers from the weekly cume.

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Agenda

• PTV prime time trend
• Competition
• Genre/Series
• Specific Programs
• Childrens service
• Pledge effects

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Average Number of Channels Received
Source NTI Television Audience annual reports
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Competing Networks Prime Time Rating Trends
NTI Galaxy Explorer. Oct-Apr each season.
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Competition Women 55 Highest Ratings

• CSI 17.2
• CBS Sunday Movie 15.1
• Everybody Loves Raymond 14.7
• 60 Minutes 14.6
• Judging Amy 13.7
• Cold Case 13.5
• The Guardian 13.0
• 60 Minutes II 12.7
• JAG 12.7

Source NTI NAD report (November 03)
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Competition College 4 Highest Ratings

• CSI 16.9
• E.R. 16.5
• Friends 16.3
• Law Order 13.7
• Will and Grace 13.5
• West Wing 13.1
• CSI Miami 12.4
• 60 Minutes 12.0
• Everybody Loves Raymond 11.6

Source NTI NAD report (November 03)
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Selected Cable Networks Prime-Time Rating Trends
Source NTI Galaxy Explorer. Oct-Apr each season.
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Demographic Ratings for Look-Alike Nets MEN
Source Nielsen Galaxy Explorer, 02-03 season.
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Demographic Ratings for Look-Alike Nets WOMEN
Source Nielsen Galaxy Explorer, 02-03 season.
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PBS and Cable Only-Only-Both, Prime Time Hhlds
watching PBS that also watched
Source NTI custom analysis, Only-Only-Both, 9/30
10/6/02.
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Competitions Ratings, by Night
Source NTI Galaxy Explorer, Oct 03-Apr 04
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SUMMARY

• Channel growth has come to a halt.
• Broadcast nets have steadily lost while cable
  nets have steadily gained.
• Broadcast nets can still punch us hard with
  hugely popular ratings among older, educated
  viewers.
• Some cable nets have been losing audience to the
  growing competition.
• (continued)

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SUMMARY

• Sex/age profile of AE and CNN most closely
  resembles public TVs.
• Special studies found some 75 of our viewers
  also watch ABC, CBS and NBC, but 21 or fewer
  watch each cable net. Our biggest competitors
  remain the major broadcast networks.
• Thursdays and Fridays are PBSs problem
  children.

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Agenda

• PTV prime time trend
• Competition
• Genres
• Specific Programs
• Childrens service
• Pledge effects

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Genre Ratings (03-04)
1.7 Prime Avg
Source NSI Overnight ratings for programs
designated for Common Carriage each season.
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Genre Common Carriage Hours
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Antiques Roadshow Audience Flow After End-Break
BREAK
Ken Burns American Stories
ANTIQUES ROADSHOW
American Experience
History Detectives
Source NSI custom flow orders. For KBAS
9/30-11/4/02, for HIDE 7/21-8/4/03, for AMEX
1/5-1/19/04.
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Antiques Roadshow Audience Flow Destinations
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SUMMARY

• The (ahem) antiques genre is far and away the
  most popular today, followed by science, nature
  and history.
• Efforts to capitalize on flow out of Antiques
  Roadshow have proven unsuccessful so far.
• Genres below the prime average include performing
  arts and public affairs.
• Public affairs occupies one-fourth of the
  common-carriage schedule.

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Agenda

• PTV prime time trend
• Competition
• Genres
• Specific Programs
• Childrens service
• Pledge effects

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Series Ratings (Overnights)

• 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 Chg
• Wall St. Wk 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.8 -43
• Frontline 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 -26
• Amer Exper 2.6 2.3 2.8 1.8 2.2 1.7 -35
• Great Perf 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 -19
• Washington Wk 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 -20
• Nature 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.9 -24
• Antiques RS 4.3 4.2 3.7 3.1 3.4 3.5 -19
• NOVA 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 -26
• Scientific Am 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 -14
• NewsHour 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 -8
• Amer Mast 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 -6
• Masterpiece 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.8 -5
• Mystery! 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.4 --

Source NSI Overnight ratings, 44 stations
continuously metered from fall 98. 03-04 is
through April 25.
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Ratings for Selected CC Specials Stunts
Rtg
Rtg
02-03
03-04
1940s House
Source Overnight ratings for common carriage
programs, 9/15/02-4/18/03 and 9/14/03-4/16/04.
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This Old House

• 00-01 01-02 02-03
  03-04 Change
• Rating 2.7 2.4 1.6
  1.5 - 44
• Stations 322 326 265 263
  - 18
• Telecasts 562 546 445 431
  - 23

Source NTI (national people meter service).
03-04 is season-to-date.
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SUMMARY

• All prime-time programs have lost at least some
  audience but especially Wall St Wk, Frontline,
  and American Experience.
• Antiques Roadshow and Mystery have revived a bit,
  however.
• NewsHour, American Masters and Masterpiece
  Theatre are basically flat.
• Top 03-04 specials averaged only a 3.0.
• National ratings for This Old House dropped as
  stations and telecasts dropped.

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Agenda

• PTV prime time trend
• Competition
• Genres
• Specific Programs
• Childrens service
• Pledge effects

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Daytime Kids 2-5, S-T-D
Source NTI Galaxy Explorer, M-F 7am-6pm,
9/30/02-4/24/03 and 9/29/03-4/22/04.
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Daytime Kids 6-8, S-T-D
Source Nielsen Galaxy Explorer, M-F 7am-6pm,
9/30/02-4/24/03 and 9/29/03-4/22/04.
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Programs Sorted by C 2-5 Differences
02-03 vs. 01-02
Source NTI PBS Pocketpiece reports.
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Programs (continued)
02-03 vs. 01-02
Source NTI PBS Pocketpiece reports.
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(No Transcript)
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SUMMARY

• Our daytime rating among kids 2-5 has dropped
  sharply as Disney and Cartoon Nets have posted
  steep gains. Nick lost some, too.
• Our kids 6-8 rating is also down for the same
  reason.
• PUT (usage) levels have remained steady.

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Agenda

• PTV prime time trend
• Competition
• Genres
• Specific Programs
• Childrens service
• Pledge effects

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Pledge Rating in Prime Time (March 04)
Source NSI overnights
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Pledge Median Age in Prime Time (March 04)
Source NTI Galaxy Explorer
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Trend in Number of Contributors, Weekly Cume
Households (000)
Contributors
Cume HHs
Sources NTI NTAR (cumes) CPB (contributors)
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SIP Programs (March 04)Overnight Ratings
Carried by 20 stations.
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SIP Programs (March 04)No. of Prime-Time
Telecasts
In overnight markets. Carried by 20 stations.
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SIP Programs (March 04)Prime-Time Telecasts per
Station
In overnight markets. Carried by 20 stations.
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SIP Programs (March 04)Dr. Wayne Dyers Avg
Ratings

• Prime time, 1st telecast 0.6
• Prime time, all telecasts 0.4
• Anytime, 1st telecast 0.6
• Anytime, all telecasts 0.3

Conclusion Audience size did not make this
program a pledge blockbuster! More data ()
needed . . .
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SUMMARY

• Our prime-time rating dropped one-fourth during
  March pledge.
• At the same time, our median age went up (to
  62.0) during pledge.
• Contributors are declining as the cume declines.
• Blockbuster Dr. Wayne Dyer had the lowest SIP
  rating, but near blockbuster Funny Ladies of
  British Comedy had a high rating.

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All done!(Thanks to Beth Walsh and Cory Allen
for preparing many of the tables and charts)QA
Time