McCainLieberman and Climate Change

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(No Transcript)
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McCain-Lieberman and Climate Change
Dr. Patrick J. Michaels Cato Institute Washington
DC Department of Environmental
Sciences University of Virginia September 12,
2003
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McCain/Lieberman S. 139
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Requirements
2000 levels by 2010 1990
levels by 2016 Establish a Carbon Bureaucracy
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McCain/Lieberman S. 139
What are the climate benefits? Depends
upon forecasts of future emissions Range is
narrower than generally thought
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The response to greenhouse gas increases is
LOGARITHMIC
Temperature Change
Carbon Dioxide Concentration
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The increase in greenhouse gases is A LOW ORDER
EXPONENT (or is it???)
Carbon Dioxide Concentration
Time
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The combination of the two results in A
STRAIGHT LINE
Temperature Change
Time
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IPCC Northern Hemisphere Temperature History
.
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Cold Season Temperature Trends (1946-1995)
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Warm Season Temperature Trends (1946-1995)
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Projections of Future Temperature in the IPCC
Third Assessment Report (TAR)
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GCM-Predicted Global Temperature Change
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Temperature Projections
6
5
IPCC Mid-Range Storyline
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3.6C
GCM mean (1/yr)
Temperature Change (C)
3
2.3C
2
1
0
Year
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Kyoto Protocol Temperature Savings
0.16
0.15C
Original Kyoto Protocol (5.2 below 1990 levels)
0.14
0.12
0.10
Temperature Savings (C)
Bonn-Kyoto (2.0 below 1990 levels)
0.08
0.06C
0.06
0.04C
0.04
Marrakech-Kyoto (1.5 below 1990 levels)
0.02
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
Year
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McCain/Lieberman S. 139
Effect on Global Temperature
IS92a
S. 139
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.
Linear and Exponential Extrapolations of the
Observed Carbon Dioxide History
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Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions
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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Growth Rate
3
2.5
2
1.54 ppm/yr
Growth Rate (ppm/yr)
1.5
1
.5
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
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Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions
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Temperature Projections Adjusted for Linear
Carbon Dioxide Increase
5
4
.
5
A
1
F
I
A
2
4
A
1
B
3
.
5
B
2
TAR Range
A
1
T
3
2.6C
Temperature Change (C)
I
S
9
2
a
2
.
5
B
1
2
T
A
R

R
a
n
g
e
1.5C
1
.
5
1
.
5
0
1
9
9
0
2
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
2
0
5
0
2
0
7
0
2
0
9
0
Year
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Temperature Projections
6
5
IPCC Mid-Range Storyline
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3.6C
GCM mean (1/yr)
Temperature Change (C)
3
GCM mean (.4/yr)
2.3C
2
1.7C
1
0
Year
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Post IPCC TAR Adjustments to the Projections of
Global Temperatures
Since the publication of IPCC Third Assessment
Report (TAR) in February 2001, there have been
several major scientific findings that have a
direct impact of future projections of global
temperature increases. 1) The direct radiative
forcing of black carbon (soot) aerosols was found
to be greater than that used in IPCC TAR
(Jacobson, 2001) 2) Research indicated that the
climate sensitivity to changes in the
concentration of greenhouse gases was possibly
much lower than that used in IPCC TAR (Lindzen et
al., 2001) 3) The positive feedback between
global temperatures and the biospheric emissions
of carbon dioxide was found to be much weaker
than assumed by IPCC TAR (Luo et al., 2001)
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Temperature Projections Adjusted for Soot, Iris
Effect, and Carbon Cycle

5
4.5
A1FI
A2
4
A1B
3.5
B2
TAR Range
2.8C
3
A1T
Temperature change (C)
IS92a
2.5
B1
2
TAR Range
1.5
1.1C
1
.5
0
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
Year
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Temperature Projections Adjusted for Soot, Iris
Effect, Carbon Cycle, And Linear Carbon Dioxide
Increase
5
4
.
5
A
1
F
I
A
2
4
A
1
B
3
.
5
B
2
3
A
1
T
TAR Range
I
S
9
2
a
2
.
5
B
1
Temperature Change (C)
2
T
A
R

R
a
n
g
e
1.6C
1
.
5
1.0C
1
.
5
0
1
9
9
0
2
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
2
0
5
0
2
0
7
0
2
0
9
0
Year
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Temperature Projections
6
5
IPCC Mid-Range Storyline
4
3.6C
GCM mean (1/yr)
Temperature Change (C)
3
2.3C
GCM mean (.4/yr)
2
1.7C
Reality Check
1.4C
1
0
Year
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Reality-Based Predicted Global Temperature Change
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McCain/Lieberman S. 139
Effect on Future Global Temperature
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Sound and Fury Michaels, 1992
The warming that will have occurred between 1900
and the time CO2 effectively doubles in the next
century will be on the order of 1.0ºC to 1.5ºC
(1.8ºF to 2.7ºF). In other words, temperatures
will be a little less than one degree warmer than
they are today.
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The Satanic Gases Michaels and Balling, May 2000
The earths average surface temperature will
warm 0.650.75C (1.171.35F) by 2050.
The distribution should be 0.750.85C
(1.351.52F) in the winter half-year and
0.600.65C (1.081.17F) in summer
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Congressional Testimony James E. Hansen, June
23rd, 1988
Global warming is now sufficiently large that we
can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a
cause and effect relationship to the greenhouse
effect.
There is a strong cause and effect relationship
between the current climate...and human
alteration of the atmosphere.
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Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences Hansen and Sato, December 2001
We predict additional warming in the next 50
years of 3/4 /- 1/4C, a warming rate of 0.15
/- 0.05C per decade. A slower warming rate
will occur in the second half of the century,
assuming that the climate forcing growth rate
begins to trend downward before 2050.
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Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions
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Journal of Climate Sun and Hansen, September 2003
Based upon the results from different ocean
models, we estimate that the global warming in
the next 50 yr with the alternative scenario of
climate forcings will be only 0.5º 0.2ºC.
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Conclusions
McCain/Lieberman (S. 139) will have no
measurable effect on climate BUT, it will
empower an entire new bureaucracy