Socio Economic Impact of AIDS in Asia

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Socio Economic Impact of AIDS in Asia
presented by
Jacques Jeugmans Asian Development Bank

• XVII International AIDS Conference
• Mexico City, Mexico
• August 5, 2008

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Socio Economic Impact of AIDS in Asia
Authors Swarup Sarkar, Ross
McLeod, Jacques Jeugmans ADB Nalyn Siripong
UNAIDS Tim Brown East West Center and Member of
the Commission on AIDS in Asia
Opinions are of individual authors
and do not necessarily reflect the view point of
the organization
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ObjectivesReview and Assess Socio-Economic
Impacts Data

• ADB Evidence-based advocacy Poverty
  Reduction
• ADB-UNAIDS
• Commission on AIDS in Asia

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Methodology

• Mortality - DALY
• WHO data Projected Burden of Diseases
• For HIV and AIDS Asian Epidemic Model (AEM)
• Economic impact Effect on Poverty
• Macroeconomic impact (not discussed here)
• Household level
• Financial burden (illness death)
• Risk of falling into poverty
• Mitigation Programs
• Standard elements Women centered unit cost

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• Mortality
• Burden of Disease

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Largest disease-related killer
for 15-44 year-old age group of population
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With Traffic Accidents
for 15-44 year-old age group of population
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Remarks

• 15-44 year-old age group
• Disease-related deaths(not traffic accidents or
  other injuries)
• Assuming current low prevention effort and ART
  coverage

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• Impacts on Households

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Impacts on households is primarily due to loss of
income

• Household financial burden
• USD 2 billion by 2020
• Financial cost of mortality
• USD 5,000 per household

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Richer Household can cope with loss of income,
poorer household fall below poverty line
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Additional AIDS Poverty in Asia

• Based on 5 countries (80 population)
• Not more than 5 million new poor by 2015 for Asia
  (range 1- 4 million in studied countries)
• Based on simulation
• 50 reduction of income in each quintile
• Estimation of new poverty due to AIDS
• Reduction of poverty due to economic growth

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Womenbear the burden

• Most disease burden on male clients and wives
  quite early in epidemic
• Women as main care givers, denied property after
  their husbands death due to AIDS in as high as
  80 cases

Men who visit female sex workers are the bulk of
HIV infections
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Impact Mitigation Programs

• What interventions?
• Livelihood support to affected households (women
  centered)
• Orphans
• ART

• 2. How much will it cost?

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Livelihood support to affected women

• Positive Partnership micro-financing for
  affected households
• (USD 600 loans)
• 70 repayment rate
• Lifetime cost of USD 1000/affected household

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Livelihood support to affected households
Unit cost based on Positive Partnership
program USD 1000/affected household lifetime
Affected women enrolled as soon husbands develop
illness
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AIDS Orphans care and support

• Estimated at 100 USD per child per year
• 1 million children in Asia lost at least one
  parent to HIV
• Total cost 100 M USD/yr

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Treatment Universal Access is feasible in Asia
10 other Asian countries (121,010 people or 11)
China, India, Myanmar, and Thailand (946,000
people or 89)
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Further studies

• Socio-economic impact
• More representative data needed
• income profile of positive people
• Income/ expenditure effect
• Time period for normalization
• Simulation do not change conclusions

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Conclusions

• Low prevalence big numbers
• 15-44 year-old big(gest) disease-related killer
  gt economic impact on households
• Socio-economic impact
• at household level
• due to loss of income
• on women and children

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Recommendations

• Impact mitigation
• Feasible and affordable
• cost 0.02 of GDP
• 4 of regional expenditure
• Household focused - women centered
• Thank you, Gracias!.