Population and Development in the MDG Context : The Impact of Population Trends and Structures on MDG Progress

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Population and Development in the MDG Context
The Impact of Population Trends and Structures
on MDG Progress

• Jean Louis RALLU
• INED, Paris
• Second Edition of the Interdisciplinary Course
  on the UN Millennium Development Goals
• Rome,October 2, 2009

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Content

• Population and Development, the Demographic
  Window
• Population and Development and international
  organizations (the old and new paradigms)
• The demographic window of opportunity
• The Millennium development Goals (MDG)
• The relationship between population and MDGs
• Population and development, and MDGs
• Relationship between MDG indicators
• Population trends/structures and MDG indicators
• Migration and MDGs

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I. - Population and Development, the Demographic
Window
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Population and Development and international
organizations
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The old and the new paradigms

• The link between population trends and
  development. The former population growth vs
  development debate which is the cause and
  which is the consequence UN International
  Conference on Population, and Population and
  Development, before Cairo 1994.
• The new paradigm interelated economic, social
  and human rights issues in an integrated approach
  to population and development, ICPD Cairo 1994
• - ICPD PoA (Programme of Action) 1994
• - MDGs 2000, adopted by the UN and 200 countries

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PD and the Demographic Window of Opportunity

• The demographic window theory is based on
  analysis of emergent countries in East and
  South-East Asia showing that population structure
  is more important than population growth for
  development.
• Several names
• demographic window of opportunity (preferable)
• demographic window
• demographic dividend

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The Demographic window of opportunity
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The demographic window of opportunity

• With declining fertility, population growth
  declines.
• However, growth remains positive due to
  population momentum.
• BUT, birth cohorts size stabilizes and starts to
  decline (while population is still growing).
• A youth bulge appears.
• Thus, dependency ratios fall progressively,
  reaching below 50 (2 adults for one dependent
  (children lt 15 and elderly gt 65).

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Thailand 1960-2005
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Thailand demographic window
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• We see clearly
• - the stabilizing and shrinking basis of the
  age-pyramid from 1980
• - The youth bulge appearing in 1990
• - The youth bulge moving upwards
• - The beginning of aging
• THEN,
• - Aging

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Thailand 2030-2050
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The two phases of the demographic window

• Recent works (Mason 2006, 2007) shows there are
  two phases in the demographic window
• The youth bulge increased ratio of workers to
  population, increased qualification/productivity
  of work force (young people are usually more
  educated)
• When the youth bulge reaches late adult ages,
  children of youth bulgers have left the family,
  resulting in increased savings that are favorable
  to investments.

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The demographic window of opportunity

• The demographic window can last 2 or 3 decades.
• There is no fixed threshold in dependency rates
  to define the demographix window
• However, its impact is stronger when dependency
  ratio is below 55 or 50.
• Currently China, Thailand have dependency ratios
  around 42 (Singapore 37).

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Demographic window in four S-E Asian countries,
1970-2050
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Dependency ratios in Africa and Asia
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The demographic window in Africa and Asia

• Some countries in East Asia and SE Asia are right
  in the middle of the demographic window with
  dependency ratios in the 40 to 45 range
• Other countries in SE Asia are heading towards
  the low point in dependency ratio (around 2020),
  followed by South and Central Asia (from 2035)
• Northern Africa is close to South Central Asia
  minimum dependency ratio is projected to remain
  higher (around 45) than in East Asia
• Western and Eastern Africa would not show
  dependency ratios below 50 before 2050 in medium
  scenario
• - Southern Africa has lower fertility and
  dependency ratios, but the latter is also
  influenced by the impact of AIDS

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Dependency ratios in a few African countries
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Fertility in Africa and Asia (TFR observed and
projected - medium scenario)
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Dependency ratios (medium and low fertiltiy
scenarios)
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The link between fertility and dependency/demograp
hic window

• The ranking of regions and sub-regions is very
  close for fertility and dependency ratios as
  expected, because the basis of the age-pyramid is
  a direct result of fertility levels and children
  under 15 are the major contributor to dependency
  before aging takes place
• Earlier and stronger fertility declines in low
  scenario are associated with earlier demographic
  window and lower dependency ratios below 50 from
  2045 in Western and Eastern Africa.
• - Reducing aging after the demographic window
  can be done by stabilizing fertity at the
  replacement level (if TFR does not decline under
  2.1)

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Economic aspects
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Macro economic effects of the Demographic Window

• States have to spend less for services in
  child/maternal health and education, due to
  stable and then declinning children cohorts.
• They can invest to improve quality of services,
  train nurses/teachers, shift spendings from 1ary
  to 2ary and 3ary education,
• - They can develop infrastructures that will
  attract foreign as well as domestic private
  investors

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Micro economic effects of the Demographic Window

• - Households spend less on primary needs
  (foodclothing for a large number of children).
• They can spend in durable goods, services,
  health, higher education of smaller number of
  children
• Mothers can work outside.
• - This help develop new sectors of economy.
• - Later, at higher adult ages, they can save
  more.

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Demographic window of opportunity

• This works, ON CONDITION young adults of the
  youth bulge can be employed,
• which is dependent on legal and economic
  environment investment policies, freedom of
  trade, quality of infrastructures, qualification
  of work force, social and political stability,
  governance, human rights, gender equality.

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II. - The Millenium Development Goals
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The MDGs

• End Poverty and Hunger
• Universal Education
• Gender Equality
• Child Health
• Maternal Health
• Combat HIV/AIDS
• Environmental Sustainability
• Global Partnership

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The MDG galaxy

• 8 goals 20 targets and 60 indicators
• They are designed to address basic human needs
  and rights as regards nutrition, access to paid
  work, education, health, environment, partnership
  for development,...
• They are based on human rights
• Although there is no goal on governance,
  governance is addressed consistently by various
  UN agencies in the 5th UN Programme 2008-2011

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Types of indicators

• A useful approach is to separate indicators by
  types
• services availability indicators
• Net enrolment ratio in primary education,
• Proportion of births attended by skilled health
  personnel,
• Antenatal care coverage (at least 1 visit and 4
  visits),
• Proportion of population using an improved
  drinking water source
• Outcomes indicators
• Proportion of population below 1 (PPP) per day
• Employment-to-population ratio,
• Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds, women and men,
• Maternal mortality ratio,
• - Under-five mortality rate,
• NB Some indicators are not so clearly service or
  outcome indicators (contraceptive prevalence
  rate), or are not directly population related
  (Proportion of species threatened with
  extinction, debt service as a percentage of
  exports of goods and services)

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Poverty is a corner stone of MDGs

• Analysis of disaggregated MDG indicators has
  shown that the lowest quintile has the poorest
  records in access to services and outcomes
  (lowest skill attended deliveries, highest infant
  and maternal mortality, lowest enrolment,
  completed primary education and literacy)
• Reducing poverty would result in improving most
  of MDG indicators, and
• thus, countries would progress toward MDG
  attainment
• But its not only about economy economic growth
  does not always reduce poverty.
• There is a need of pro-poor policies

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Relationship between poverty and Reproductive
Health MDGs indicators (1)
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Relationship between poverty and Reproductive
Health MDGs indicators (2)
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Population is also at the basis of most MDGs

• Population is present nearly everywhere in the
  MDG process through poverty/hunger, health,
  education, gender, environment indicators, and
  rights based approach,
• And so, many indicators are social and human
  development indicators and MDGs are a extensive
  approach to social, economic and human
  development (well beyond HDI Human Development
  Index that consists of only 3 indicators)
• And technically population is the basis for MDG
  costing and budgeting (UNDP)

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III. - The relationship between Population
Trends/structures and MDGs
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The positive effect of the demographic window on
service indicators

• Services in reproductive health, education are
  linked with the number of births
• As the demographic window reduces the number of
  births, it is easier to increase service
  coverage
• Countries with high growth of birth cohorts face
  three challenges
• - Increase services to cope with increasing
  cohort size
• Increase services to increase coverage
• Improve quality of services

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The link between services and outcome indicators
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Correlations coefficients between MDGs indicators
(IMR and MMR) and various services indicators
(Pacific Island countries)
significant at plt0.05
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Relations between MDGs indicators

• IMR and MMR are closely correlated, when IMR is
  high, MMR is also high.
• Both are strongly negatively correlated with
  access to services skilled birth attendants and
  immunization, as well as improved water and
  sanitation when services are low, IMR and MMR
  are high.
• When progress in services is slow, IMR and MMR
  are high.
• They are also strongly correlated with
  literacy/employment when women education or
  participation in formal sector are low, IMR and
  MMR are high.

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The link between population and MDG indicators
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Relation between MDG attainment and population
and development(Pacific Island countries)
significant at plt0.05 significant at
plt0.10 (a) Proportion of population below
national poverty line
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Correlation coefficients of selected
socio-economic indicators with U5MR, MMR, and
progress to goals of reducing themcountries in
the ESCAP region
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The link between DW and MDG attainment

• In SE Asia, dependency ratio is correlated with
  (among others)
• Infant mortality rate (R20,575)
• Maternal mortality ratio (R20,751),
• Births attended by skilled health personal
  (R20,871),
• Proportion of children immunized against measles
  (R20,691)
• Net enrolment rate in primary education
  (R20,919)
• Contraceptive prevalence rate (R20,833)

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Infant mortality and dependency ratio (Northern
and Western Africa)
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Net enrolment in 1ary education and dependency
ratio (Northern and Western Africa)
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Migration and development, and MDG attainment
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Impact of migration on the demographic window

• Migration takes away young adults and reduces the
  number of births - positive effect,
• Migration increases dependency ratio - negative
  effect,
• Brain drain takes away the most qualified
  (teachers, nurses, doctors) - negative effect.

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Migration, Development and MDGs

• Migration increases dependency and reduces
  working ages, but workers are abroad sending
  remittances.
• The demographic window (demographic bonus)
  seems not to be an issue for mass migration
  countries.
• But do remittances reach such level and stability
  to make a sustainable economic system? Is the
  MIRAB (MIgration, Remittances, Aid and
  Bureaucracy) sustainable?
• Still, the question is whether economic growth
  can be based on low qualified migration. Asian
  (Philippines, Pakistan) and Polynesian
  emigration countries have low economic growth

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Health and education indicators

• Quality is essential to achieve low levels of
  infant (IMR) and maternal (MMR) mortality, and
  transitions from class 1 to 6 and 1ary to 2ary
  education.
• Brain drain affects sustainability and quality of
  services staff shortages, low qualified staff.
• This results in stagnating IMR and MMR - with
  IMR levels between 12 per 1,000 and 20 per 1,000
  in Polynesia, Palau and Fiji, while MDG target
  for these countries is 10 per 1,000 or below.
• In education, 1ary completion is low and children
  end 1ary after several repetitions and are 2 or
  more years late when entering 2ary many drop out
  after class 6 or form 3.

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The use of remittances and MDGs

• Remittances can help reduce poverty
• They are mostly used for basic needs (food,
  clothing, housing,)
• But they are also used for education, health,
• They can be used for investment in smaller or
  larger businesses, creating jobs
• However, at the macro level, they may also
  increase inflation, cost of living and raise
  poverty lines

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The various uses of remittances and MDGs

• The many uses of remittances can improve various
  MDG indicators of migration countries.
• - personal consumption of durable goods or
  in-kinds remittances, like telephones, cell
  phones, computers and internet connection, -
  Pacific countries with the largest expatriate
  communities are also those with the highest use
  of internet.
• - payment of education/health of children left
  behind or of relatives
• - payment of health expenditures for parents
• - use of remittances for collective purposes
  infrastructures (wells, improved toilets, sewage,
  generator/solar panels), school books, medicine,
  disaster relief after hurricanes, flooding,
  earthquakes,
• Support to social life church/cultural/sports/you
  th associations, can have social impact and
  effects on gender issues.
• - Remittances used for investment or savings
  contribute to employment generation and economic
  growth.

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Migration and poverty

• MDG1 is directly related to the impact of
  remittances on income distribution/poverty
  reduction.
• In the 1st phase of migration when mostly people
  from richer households can migrate (individual
  migration schemes), remittances tend to increase
  income inequalities
• However, there is poverty reduction if poor
  households receive enough to be lifted out of
  poverty.
• In later phases, people from poorer households
  also migrate (individual) and unqualified work
  contracts (Asia) enable poorer maybe not the
  poorest - people to migrate
• - But, large inflow of remittances can raise
  poverty lines by increasing the cost of
  living/inflation (Pacific).
• - Sending remittances can also increase poverty
  among migrants households in host countries.

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Migration, remittances and MDG 6 and 7

• Migration results in labour shortages in
  agriculture in origin countries, and remittances
  lead to new consumption patterns.
• Changes in diets and life styles have resulted in
  epidemic level NCDs (diabetes, cardio-vascular
  diseases, cancers) and NCDs in Polynesia and have
  been included in MDG 6 by some countries.
• Cars (not regularly serviced), chemicals,
  electronics and other non recycled waste result
  in more pollution of air, sea and fresh water
  resources, impacting on MDG 7.

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Conclusion
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Population and Development and MDGs

• A healthy and educated population is a condition
  of development.
• This can be achieved through quality health and
  education services for all.
• This implies
• Maintain and increase coverage of services i.e.
  coping with population growth and beyond, or
  reducing population growth rate and fertility
  rate to advance the demographic window.
• Improve quality of services (infrastructures and
  qualification of staff).

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Conditions to reap the benefits of the
demographic window

• GOOD GOVERNANCE
• Economic and investment friendly policies,
• Endorsement of international conventions,
• Rule of law and human rights,
• Growing and job creating economy,
• Reducing poverty through pro-poor policies
  (economic growth does not necessarily mean
  poverty reduction case of growth based on
  export of raw materials)

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Thank you