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Marijuana

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Marijuana Controlled Substances * – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Marijuana


1
Marijuana
  • Controlled Substances

2
Marijuana in the news
  • The Sinaloa Cartel and the Drug Enforcemnet
    Agency, DEA and Immigration and Customs
    Enforcement, ICE
  • Dispensaries
  • back country plots

3
Policy Issues
  • Are DEA and ICE agents being duped by El Chapo?
  • Enforcement Costs
  • Helicopters
  • Ecological damage to public forest lands
  • Danger to hikers etc. from armed ruthless
    growers
  • Enforcement benefits

4
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6
Canadian Enforcement Costs
7
UK Harm Scale
8
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10
Maricopa Highway, State 33
11
Pine Mountain Ridge Road
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13
Reyes Campground Looking North
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18
Questions About Crime
  • What are the Social Policy Options Towards
    Victimless Crimes?
  • education problem
  • prevention
  • health problem
  • cure for addicts and abusers
  • fiscal problem
  • control use through taxes
  • law enforcement problem
  • focus on demand?
  • users
  • focus on supply?
  • distributors

19
Market Analysis
  • Compare and contrast
  • free market
  • enforcement
  • fiscal policy
  • excise tax as a control device

20
Market Analysis
  • concepts
  • market supply
  • marginal cost of production the additional cost
    of one more unit
  • cost of production equals the sum of marginal
    costs
  • revenue price quantity sold
  • market demand
  • price some consumers are willing to pay
  • expenditure price quantity bought
  • consumer surplus a measure of welfare for those
    consumers willing to pay above the market price

21
Market Analysis
  • Concepts
  • supply and demand
  • determines the market price
  • the marginal cost of production the marginal
    value of consumers
  • the quantity demanded equals the quantity
    supplied
  • profit revenue - cost of production
  • profit, or producers surplus, is a welfare
    measure
  • total welfare benefit consumers surplus
    producers surplus

22
Market Supply
23
Market Demand
24
Market Supply and Demand
25
Enforcement Policy Search, Confiscate, Resale
26
Enforcement Policy Search, Confiscate, Resale
27
Enforcement Policy Search, Confiscate, Burn
28
Enforcement Policy Search, Confiscate, Burn
29
Fiscal Policy 50 Excise Tax, Government Keeps
the Revenue
30
Fiscal Policy 50 Excise Tax, Government Keeps
the Revenue
31
Fiscal Policy 50 ExciseTax, Use Revenue to Buy
Marijuana
32
Fiscal Policy an excise tax is cheaper than
enforcement more effective
33
Questions About Crime
  • What are the Social Policy Options Towards
    Victimless Crimes?
  • education problem
  • prevention
  • health problem
  • cure for addicts and abusers
  • fiscal problem
  • control use through taxes
  • law enforcement problem
  • focus on demand?
  • users
  • focus on supply?
  • distributors

34
Education
  • Let an informed public make a choice
  • An individual would weigh the benefits against
    the costs
  • If the benefit/cost ratio exceeds one
  • smoke
  • drink
  • Could impose costs on others
  • driving under the influence
  • second hand smoke
  • Protection of Minors
  • blandishments of advertising
  • influence of peers

35
Health
  • Treat substance abuse
  • Need to identify the abusers
  • many citizens are not covered under health plans
  • Difficult to cure addicts

36
Fiscal Policy
  • Use excise taxes, a tax per unit, to control
    demand
  • tax per pack of cigarettes
  • tax per bottle of gin
  • Policy moderates rather than eliminates use
  • lacks the moral suasion of a law prohibiting use

37
Law Enforcement
  • Control demand?
  • hard to keep tabs on numerous users
  • loss of respect for the law
  • people like to party
  • Control supply?
  • at home
  • search and destroy policies have a low success
    rate
  • abroad
  • interdiction of supply has low success rate
  • we export our enforcement problem to
  • producing countries, e.g. Bolivia, Peru, Colombia
  • Trans-shipment countries, e.g. Mexico

38
What are the Tradeoffs Among Policy Options?
39
Review
  • INTRODUCTION (facts or trends, graphics, themes)
  • Current policy issues. What did we discuss?
  • History of California Prisons. Have they always
    been overcrowded?
  • History of California Offense Rates. Have they
    always been high?
  • The Economic Approach to Crime Control (graphics)

40
Outline for Today 01/10/2012
  • Syllabus course details
  • Syllabus Assignments by Lecture Number
  • Current Criminal Justice Policy Issues
  • Trends in California imprisonment and crime
    levels
  • Questions about crime trends and imprisonment
    trends
  • The Economics of Crime Control

40
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The Economics of Crime Control
  • Objective minimize the sum of damages to victims
    and expenditures on the criminal justice system
  • Damages to victims loss rate offenses, or in
    symbols rof
  • Expenditures on the criminal justice system,
    abbreviated CJS, for law enforcement, trials
    (district attorneys, public defenders, judges)
    and operating jails and prisons

43
The Graphics of Total Cost, TC TC rOF E
Total Cost (E)
  • Economic Paradigm
  • Choose objective
  • e. g. minimize sum of
  • damages to victims plus
  • expenditures, E, on CJS
  • 2. Describe states of the world
  • (options for choice)
  • Total cost curve (E)
  • 3. Choose the best option

Minimum Cost
E on CJS
Optimal Expenditure
44
What Have We Learned
  • Even if crime is controllable, the optimal level
    of crime ( and damages to victims) is not zero
  • There comes a point where spending more on crime
    control, i.e. the CJS, costs more than is saved
    by reducing damages to victims, and this is where
    total costs start to rise above their minimum

45
What If Crime, Or Some Types of Crime, are Not
Controllable
46
The Graphics of Total Cost, TC TC rOF E
Total Cost (E)

Minimum Total Cost is no Expenditure on CJS, E0
rOF(E)
45 degrees
optimum
E on CJS
0
47
The Graphics of Total Cost, TC TC rOF E

Total Cost (E)
Minimum Total Cost is no Expenditure on CJS, E0
rOF(E)
45 degrees
optimum
E on CJS
0
48
What Did We Learn From Prohibition, 1919-1933?
  • The argument was misuse or abuse of alcohol can
    have bad effects
  • Drunken husbands beat their wives
  • Drunken mothers mistreat their children
  • But the majority of people did not want to give
    up alcohol
  • Following the passage of the Volstead Act in
    1919, we witnessed rum-runners, speakeasies,
    people making beer and bathtub gin

49
Review
  • THE IMPACT OF CRIME ON SOCIETY
  • How much FBI Index Crime is There?
  • What are the Four Index Crimes Against Property?
  • What are the two main effects of crime on social
    welfare? (graphics)

50
Outline and Issues 01/12/2012
  • Course logistics gauchospace
  • Criminal Justice System (CJS) economic
    paradigm where do the values (prices) come from
    to evaluate the states (outcomes) of the CJS?
  • How much crime is there? How do we know?
  • Crime has two effects
  • Redistribution of welfare from the victim to the
    perpetrator
  • Opportunity cost or waste of resources for
    defense

51
How is Crime Measured
  • Victimization Surveys of Households
  • U S Dept of Justice, Bureau of Justice
    Statistics, Criminal Victimization
  • Citizen (Victim) Reports to Police
  • U S Dept of Justice, FBI, Uniform Crime Reports

52
A Theme for this Course
  • Criminal Justice System is in crisis.
  • Courts told former Governor Schwarzenegger to
    find housing for prisoners or release them early
  • City and County jails are overflowing and a
    revolving door policy is in effect. Repeat
    offenders clog the system
  • Not enough judges and prosecutors

53
It Has Not Always Been This Way
  • The Criminal Justice System had been relatively
    stable in the decade after World War II
  • What happened? That is the story of this course.
  • We will review the history of criminal justice in
    the 60-plus years since WW II.
  • We will suggest policies that will help turn
    things around now. In brief, what is needed is
    triage, i.e. to use scarce resources that will
    improve public safety the most.

54
Questions about crime
  • Is crime a real problem or a media induced
    problem?
  • Is crime an economic problem?
  • Are we getting our moneys worth for the dollars
    we spend on police, jails, and prisons?

55
Taking Crimes
  • Robbery
  • Burglary
  • Auto Theft
  • Larceny

56
Two Perspectives On Crime
  • No Problem
  • Its Bad

57
Thiefs Income
Total or Social Income Line Thiefs Victims
Income
12,000
11,000
Income Redistribution
9,000
Income Distribution
6,000
1,000 social cost of defense
12,000
11,000
6,000
3,000
Victims Income
58
Defense
Politicians
Private
Public
Offense Rate, Damages to Victims
Crime Generation
Fear
We over-react to crime and we do not triage
Media
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61
Questions about the Operation of CJS
  • If crime is going down, why are we devoting more
    resources to its control?
  • If drug offenders are mostly non-violent, why do
    we send them to state prison instead of
    rehabilitation?

62
Bad effects from taking crimes
  • Victim has less incentive to be productive
  • Victim has more incentive to spend time and money
    on defense
  • Analogous to war guns vs. butter
  • What is society going to produce?
  • defense against crime?
  • or goods and services?

63
Review
  • JOBS AND CRIME
  • Policy issue Arizona gun laws
  • Question What did we learn from the seriousness
    survey?
  • Question What is the most important economic
    perspective about economic conditions and crime?
  • Long run investment in human capital ( education
    job experience)
  • Tradeoff between leisure income (graphics) ,
    i.e TIME IS MONEY

64
Today 02/19/2012
  • Policy Issue Gun Laws (Arizona)
  • Seriousness ratings for ten behaviors
  • How much would you pay to prevent your bike being
    stolen?
  • Experimental issue Do economic conditions cause
    crime?

65
How to study for this course!
  • Lecture course go to lectures
  • No section and no TA
  • Look at outline slide at the beginning of each
    lecture with the major points and a summary slide
    at the end of each PowerPoint with the major
    points
  • Be familiar with the graphical analysis in the
    class notes the PowerPoints
  • Look at last Falls (2011) midterm for clues
  • Read (listen, look, Google) the news and keep up
    with criminal justice system stories

66
The Economy and Crime
  • Is crime affected by the business cycle?
  • Do economic factors cause crime?

67
Outline
  • Seriousness Survey
  • What can we learn from the survey?
  • Crime File
  • Victims
  • Jobs and Crime
  • Jobs and Crime
  • Why do some people get involved with crime?

68
SERIOUSNESS SURVEY RATE THE SERIOUSNESS
OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE
FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST
SERIOUS) MEDIAN F11 W12 1.
HOMICIDE _10 10__ 2. MASS POISONING (
e.g. TYLENOL) _ 9 10__ 3.
FORCIBLE RAPE _ 10 _9_ 4. ARSON SET
FIRE TO A GARAGE _ 7 __7 5. SELLING
HEROIN _ 7 _6_ 6. AUTO THEFT _ 6
_6_ 7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF 1,000 _ 5
__5 8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION
_ 3 __3 9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _ 1
__1 10. SNIFFING GLUE _ 1 __1
69
Consistency from year to year
70
Conclusions
  • Consistency from year to year
  • Triage is possible we can separate the more
    serious behaviors from the less serious behaviors

71
Distribution of Homicide Scores in F 2011
72
Three ? Views on Pot, Fall 2011
Score 0-2, 35 Score 3-5, 11 Score 67, 2 24, a
score of 1, would carry a majority vote, 32, a
score of 2, would carry a 2/3 vote
73
The more serious the behavior, the less
disagreement about policy. Fall 2011
74
Months Served in CA Prison Vs. F 11 Seriousness
Scores
75
Questions About Crime
  • Does the Business Cycle Affect Crime Rates?
  • Does an Individuals Life Cycle Affect Crime
    Rates?
  • Why do some people live socially unproductive
    lives?

76
Two Points About Economic Conditions and Crime
  • Relationship of Crime to the Business Cycle
  • Short Run Business Cycle
  • Is Phil Cook wrong?
  • California the misery index and crime
  • misery index unemployment rate inflation rate
  • Relationship of Crime to the Life Cycle
  • Long Run
  • Investment in Education
  • Role of the Family

77
Earnings
low value
high
480
slope of the iso-preference curve through the
24 hour endowment is the lowest wage
at which you are willing to work
96
0
Leisure (learning)
24 hours
0 hours
dropout is unwilling to work for 4/hr
78
REVIEW
  • DETERRENCE AND THE DEATH PENALTY
  • Policy issue The Death of the Death Penalty
    Newsweek, CA
  • The Arguments Pro Vs. Anti, NIJ video
  • Debate Is the death penalty a deterrent?
  • Homicide and executions, CA compared to other
    statespp

79
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80
Outline 01/28/2012
  • The Death Penalty
  • Arguments
  • Philosophical and moral (lexicographic ordering)
  • Practical Is it a deterrent?
  • Impact on the criminal justice system Detention
    (prison building era) dominates
  • Operation of the Death Penalty
  • Homicide and Executions

81
Schematic of the Criminal Justice System
Causes ?
Weak Link
Offense Rate Per Capita
Crime Generation
Expected Cost of Punishment
(detention, deterrence)
Expenditures
Crime Control
82
Questions About Crime
  • Does the Expected Severity of Punishment Deter
    Crime?
  • expected severity probability of punishment
    severity of punishment
  • e.g. in LA County 0.005death penalty
  • Why Do We Keep Building Prisons at Great Expense
    to Warehouse Convicts?
  • Doesnt deterrence work?
  • Do we have to rely on detention?

83
Controversy About the Death Penalty
  • Death penalty is the most severe sentence.
  • Does it deter crime?
  • Opponents of the death penalty say no.
  • Their evidence? Critiques of studies that
    indicate the death penalty is a deterrent.
  • Why are so few murderers who receive the death
    sentence executed in California?
  • Death sentence appeases the proponents.
  • Few executions appeases the opponents.

84
Executions in the US 1930-2007
http//www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs
Peak to Peak About 65 years
85
Bureau of Justice Statistics
Peak to Peak 50 years
86
Policy Impact of Opponents to the Death Penalty
  • As an instrument for crime control, deterrence
    has been a casualty of the argument about the
    death penalty.
  • The argument if the death penalty does not deter
    murderers, then deterrence must not work as a
    control.
  • As a consequence, society relies more and more on
    detention for crime control.
  • Society builds more and more prisons.

87
U.S.
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Questions About Statistical Studies of Deterrence
  • Do we know enough about the factors that cause
    crime?
  • Can we find variables that will control for
    variation in crime generation?
  • We have better measures for the factors that
    control crime than for the factors that cause
    crime.
  • Unknown variation in crime generation may mask
    the effects of crime control.

90
Get
Expect
Source Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice
91
REVIEW
  • STRATEGIES TO ESTIMATE DETERRENCE
  • What is the critique of econometric studies of
    deterrence?
  • What is the evidence for deterrence?

92
Schematic Model
Suicide
Causes
Controls Imprisonment rate Clearance ratio
Homicide
93
Empirical Study of Certainty, Severity,
Causality
94
Evidence Against the Death Penalty Being a
Deterrent
  • Contiguous States
  • Maine no death penalty
  • Vermont death penalty
  • New Hampshire death penalty
  • Little Variation in the Homicide Rate
  • Source Study by Thorsten Sellin in Hugo Bedau,
    The Death Penalty in America

95
Isaac Ehrlich Study of the Death Penalty
1933-1969
  • Homicide Rate Per Capita
  • Control Variables
  • probability of arrest
  • probability of conviction given charged
  • Probability of execution given conviction
  • Causal Variables
  • labor force participation rate
  • unemployment rate
  • percent population aged 14-24 years
  • permanent income
  • trend

96
911 call (characteristics of household
Participants unknown)
Random Assignment
code blue
code gold
patrol responds
patrol responds
settles the household
settles the household
verbally warn the husband
take the husband to jail for the night
97
Thats all folks!
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