NATO

1
NATO

• Reiter, Dan. 2001. Why NATO Enlargement Does Not
  Spread Democracy. International Security 2541-67.

2
Plan

1. Quick NATO background
2. Why enlarge NATO?
3. Membership
4. Spreading Democracy?
5. Credibility Problem
6. Alienating Russia
7. Security Organizations Part 2 The Arab League
   CENTO
8. The Utility of Joining an Alliance
9. The production of knowledge

3
North Atlantic Treaty Organization

• THE Cold War alliance of the West
• Established 1949 just a political organization
• Then a war galvanized the member states
• Which war?
• KOREAN WAR 1950-1953
• The first NATO Secretary General, Lord Ismay
  (UK), famously stated the organization's goal
  was
• to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and
  the Germans down.

4
Article 5?

• an armed attack against one shall be considered
  an attack against them all
• The principle of collective defense
• Invoked once
• 9/12/2001
• http//www.nato.int/terrorism/five.htm

5
Important aside

• What was the rival alliance of the East?
• The Warsaw Pact
• Dissolved with the end of the Cold War

6
With the end of the Cold War, what good is NATO
why enlarge it?

• Spread democracy?

7
Why not enlarge NATO?

1. Credibility problem
2. Alienating Russia

8
North Atlantic Treaty Organization

• HQ located where?
• Brussels, Belgium
• April 4,1949 12 countries signed the North
  Atlantic Treaty
• Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy,
  Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal
  (dictatorship until 1975!), the United Kingdom,
  and the United States
• 3 components of the treaty relevant to
  enlargement and democratization are notable
• Article 5 is the most binding aspect of the
  treaty an armed attack against one or more of
  the parties in Europe or North America shall be
  considered an attack against them all.
• The treaty in two places (Articles 2 and 10)
  states its commitment to democratic principles
• Article 10 allows for the inclusion of new
  members by unanimous vote
• Four nations joined as new members during the
  Cold War
• 1952 Greece (Dict 1967-73) Turkey
  (Authoritarian until 1960, with military
  interventions in 1971 1980. 1980-1982 military
  rule!!!)
• 1955 West Germany in 1955 (Dem)
• 1982 Spain (Dem 1977-)

9
Take-aways from previous slide

• Membership has grown
• 2 joined as dictatorships (Portugal, Turkey)
• 2 experienced democratic breakdowns (Greece,
  Turkey)
• Article 5 Common defense
• Articles 2 10 Democratic principles

10

• 1994 Secretary of State Warren Christopher
• pushes for NATO enlargement
• Christopher come from the institutionalist
  school of thought believes international
  institutions promote democracy, trade, peace
• March 1999 Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland
• (Bush... Neo-con?...)
• March 2004 Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
  Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
• April 2009 Albania, Croatia
• Wiki timeline http//upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped
  ia/commons/c/c3/Map_of_NATO_chronological.gif h

11
How might NATO spread democracy?

• Carrot
• Since 1995, NATO only admits democracies
• Thus governments that want to join NATO have an
  incentive to bring about democracy
• Problem?
• This is a new rule. Historically there have been
  non-democratic members

12
How might NATO spread democracy?

• Stick
• Ejection NATO might eject countries if
  democracy breaks down
• Thus member governments have an incentive to
  continue to play by democratic rules
• Problem?
• There is no legal basis for this!
• At best this might be possible through a
  unanimous vote, but there are so many members,
  unanimity on ejection is unlikely
• Organization of American States and European
  Union do have explicit ejection procedures

13
How might NATO spread democracy?

• Socialization effect
• Teach military leaders the importance of civilian
  supremacy over the military
• NATO provides an institutionalized environment
• transgovernmental contacts between militaries,
  spread norms of civilian control of the military
• Problem?
• The major determinant of the survival of
  democracy is per capita income (Przeworski)
• However we will discuss the work of Pevehouse
  (class 24)

14
Risks for NATO from enlargement

1. Credibility problem
2. Alienating Russia

15
Risks for NATO (1) Credibility problem

• an armed attack against oneshall be considered
  an attack against them all.
• Poland 31 of the American public agrees that
  the US has a vital interest
• Japan 87 of the American public agrees that the
  US has a vital interest
• If we are unwilling to come to the defense of
  NATO members, the organization is weakened

16
Risks for NATO (2) Alienating Russia

• Russian point of view
• With the end of the Cold War came the end of the
  Warsaw Pact
• So, why is there still a NATO?
• And why is it growing?
• And why is it growing right up to our borders??

17
The Risk Waking the Sleeping Bear
?
18
The 2008 South Ossetia War a.k.a. the
RussiaGeorgia War

• Georgia enter NATO?
• Putin warns Bush
• Georgia continues quest to join NATO

19
Conclusion

• The continued usefulness of NATO depends on it
  being credible (defending ALL members)
• The point is to bring about peace not alienate
  rivals (Russia)
• Enlargement may promote peace by promoting
  democracy
• But it is not obvious that NATO membership can
  indeed promote democracy

20
Security Organizations Part 2 The Arab League
CENTO

• Gilligan, Michael and W. Ben Hunt. 1998. The
  Domestic and International Sources of Foreign
  Policy Alliance formation in the Middle East
  1946-78. In Strategic Politicians, Institutions
  and Foreign Policy, edited by Randolph Siverson,
  pp. 143-68. Ann Arbor University of Michigan
  Press.

21
Most threats are domestic
22
The Utility of Joining an Alliance
Realism
Domestic Politics
23

• Military expenditure
• The military expenditure of the country in
  question as a share of the total military
  expenditures of the other countries in the region
  plus the global powers (UNSC P5)
• Alliance military expenditure
• Similarly defined as share of the countrys
  allies expenditures
• External threat Alliance external threat
• Sum of threatening events directed against the
  country

24

• Expected probability of a government change
  (internal threat)
• Authors estimate the probability of a government
  change

25
What the heck?
26
The production of knowledge

• When published?
• Where published?
• Cited?
• http//scholar.google.com/

27
Take home point

• Look for domestic sources of foreign policy

28
Thank youWE ARE GLOBAL GEORGETOWN!