Minority Report PreCog View of Research by Paul Kirch

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Minority ReportPre-Cog View of Researchby Paul
Kirch
Park City, UT August 1, 2008
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Minority Report

• 2002 Sci-Fi Film by Spielberg
• Based on short story by Philip K. Dick
• 2054 set in Washington DC
• Pre-Crime Unit
• Pre-Cogs
• Time/Date of Murder
• Murderers Name
• Victims Name
• Produce Minority Report
• Theme
• Foreknowledge Free Will vs. Determinism

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Todays Influence on Tomorrow

• Some Influences Impacting Us
• Falling Response and Cooperation Rates
• Price Pressure
• Quality Initiatives
• Regulation
• Consolidation and Mergers
• Commoditization Argument?

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Todays Influence on Tomorrow

• Technology Influences Impacting Our Industry
• Mobile
• SMS
• Web-enabled
• IVR
• Instant Messaging
• Cell Only and Cell Dominate Households
• GPS
• Web 2.0
• Communities
• Social Networking

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Web 3.0

• Future of The Internet
• Ubiquitous Connectivity broadband adoption,
  mobile Internet access and mobile devices
• Software-as-a-service Business Models
• Open Technologies and Open Identity
• Intelligent Applications Machine Learning,
  Machine Reasoning, Natural Language Processing
• Distributed Databases
• The Intelligent Web Semantic Web Technologies

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Web 3.0
I have a dream for the Web in which computers
become capable of analyzing all the data on the
Web the content, links, and transactions
between people and computers. A Semantic Web,
which should make this possible, has yet to
emerge, but when it does, the day-to-day
mechanisms of trade, bureaucracy and our daily
lives will be handled by machines talking to
machines. The intelligent agents people have
touted for ages will finally materialize. Tim
Berners-Lee W3C (World Wide Web Consortium)
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Our Industry Is Evolving
70s DirectMailSurveys
80s Mall Based Surveys
90s Automated Phone Interviews
50s PersonalInterviews
60s Telephone Interviews
2000s Internet Surveys
Tomorrow
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50s View of The Future
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Wheres My Flying Car?

• Miracles Youll See in The Next Fifty Years
• Written by Waldemar Kaepffert, the science editor
  of the New York Times
• Published in February 1950 Popular Mechanics
• Introduces an Average Family in 2000

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Wheres My Flying Car?

• The Dobsons eight-room home is structurally made
  out of four-inch thick light metal walls, which
  consist of a sheet of insulating material
  sandwiched between two pieces of sheet metal and
  the floors are made of poured plastic.
• The majority of the items in the home are made of
  various types of plastic used for everything from
  dishware to upholstery to furniture.
• In order for Mrs. Dobson to clean the home all
  she must do is turn on the hose, since the house
  is virtually waterproof. Essentially all the dirt
  is washed away down a drain in the center of the
  room and the house is left sparkling clean.

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Wheres My Flying Car?

• Once its time for Mrs. Dobson to prepare dinner
  all she has to do is remove the frozen partially
  cooked meal from the freezer and toss it is the
  electric oven. Two minutes later the meal is hot
  and delicious.
• There is no need to worry about using up all the
  countrys food resources because in 2000 sawdust
  and wood pulp are converted into sugary foods.
• Discarded paper table linens and rayon
  underwear are bought by chemical companies to be
  converted into candy

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Wheres My Flying Car?

• Transportation
• The highways of 2000 will be very similar to
  those of the 1950s, the only difference being
  that they will be broader with no sharp turns.
• The older highways are converted into
  double-decked roads which will consist of a deck
  for fast moving vehicles, a lower deck lined with
  storefronts and a level underneath for commercial
  vehicles only.
• Although the highway system has been
  streamlined, very few people drive their cars
  anywhere further than twenty miles away. For the
  longer trips everyone takes their helicopter.
• There is no need to worry about parking your car
  on a busy city street while at work anymore the
  company employees will simply park their
  helicopters on top of their office buildings.

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Wheres My Flying Car?

• The Jetsons
• 1962 Hannah-Barbara Cartoon
• Concept Influenced from 1950s Science-Fiction
  Articles
• Popular Mechanics, Modern Mechanix and Popular
  Science
• Written by Futurists Looking To Describe the
  Future

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Reaching The Mobile Audience

• ARBITRON survey of cell-only households
• Manually-dialed
• Cell-only sample performance similar to landline
  sample
• Cell-only respondents more likely to be in to
  lowest-responding categories
• Men age 18-34, and women age 18-24

Pilot in 2002, continuing in waves into 2005
(Fleeman 2005). Respondents were randomly called
from a pool of 7,500 phone numbers (to comply
with FCC regulations, numbers were hand-dialed).
Administered a standard ARBITRON survey dealing
with Radio Ratings.
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Pre-Cog View
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Determinism

• Events Driving Determinism View
• Technology Firms Influence on MR
• Response Rate Decline
• Over Burdening Respondent Pool
• Scrutinizing Business Practices
• Industry Organizations Driving Standard
  Discussions
• Merging and Consolidation of Top Tier Firms
• Private Equity Firms
• Publicly Traded Organizations
• Impact of DNC

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Free Will

• Free Will Influence on Tomorrow
• Volunteers Involved in Driving Direction
• Lobbying Efforts Influencing Decision Makers
• Finding New Ways To Engage And Inspire
  Respondents
• Company Leaders Direction For Their Firm
• End Users Voice
• Belief That You Can Make a Difference

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A Look at Tomorrow

• Foreknowledge
• GPS Will Allow Tracking of Future Cell
  Respondents
• Proximity Research
• RFID
• Web 2.0 is Creating An Engaging Platform for
  Respondents
• Mobile Interviewing Will Be A Reality
• Respondent Engagement Will Be A Priority
• Survey Length
• Engaging Tools

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A Look at Tomorrow

• Invitations and Recruitment
• Permission Based Cell Calling
• SMS to Inbound (Voice and IVR)
• Other Forms of Invitations Used In The Future
• Digital TV Random Sampling
• Outbound IVR Notice Of A Call
• Interactive Web Invites (Web 2.0)
• Panellized Respondents Telephone, Web, Qual,
  etc
• Credit Card Usage
• Pushed Invites Software
• Mobile
• Desktop

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A Look at Tomorrow

• Other Possibilities (Mobile Influence)
• In-Store Purchase Decisions
• Barcode Scanning
• Coupons and Promotions
• Pricing and Brand-Trade Off Decisions
• Diary Research
• Mobile Device
• Web
• Face-To-Face
• Mobile Device More Viable

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A Look at Tomorrow

• Ethnography (Mobile Device)
• Camera phones provide ability to combine
  qualitative and quantitative data collection
  modes in a single device
• Inexpensive Option
• Video, Digital Images, Audio Clips and Other
  Information
• Data Tied To Individual or Specific Survey
  Responses
• SMS messages or emails for the field to describe
  their day or experiences.

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A Look at Tomorrow

• Sponsorship
• More Entrusted Sources
• Name Recognition More Important
• Fewer Blind Studies

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A Look at Tomorrow

• SHOW ME THE MONEY

• Increased Use Of Incentives
• Will Be Necessary To Engage Respondents

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Minority Report - Conclusion

• Determinism Does Not Control Our Fate
• Free Will Allows Us To Control The Future
• IF You Care About The Future Of MR?
• Exercise Free Will and Get Involved!!