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THEORIES OF POPULATION GROWTH

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Title: THEORIES OF POPULATION GROWTH


1
THEORIES OF POPULATION GROWTH
  • Thomas Malthus
  • malthusian checks
  • William Catton
  • carying capacity
  • D.J. Bogue
  • demographic regulation

2
THOMAS MALTHUS
3
Who is Thomas Malthus?
  • English economist - 1766 to 1834
  • Witnessed huge population increases in European
    cities (England) due to Industrial Revolution.
  • Wrote An Essay on the Principle of Population
    (1798) in which he argued that populations grow
    geometrically but food supply only
    arithmetically.
  • Was one of the first to warn against the dangers
    of population growth
  • Population would soon outstrip food supply.
  • Overcrowding led to inadequate housing, lack of
    sanitation, widespread crime and other social
    ailments

4
Malthusian Checks
  • As hunger increased there would be more social
    disorder, riots, wars, plagues - famine.
  • Malthus believed that if left unchecked, the
    rapidly growing population would destroy the
    quality of life
  • Malthus believed that the human population had
    the ability to double ever generation (approx. 25
    yrs)
  • Argued that moral restraint was only hope no
    premarital sex, later marriages.

5
Food supply Population 1 1 2 2 3
4 4 8 5 16 etc.
6
Problems with Malthusian Theory
  • Malthus predictions did not materialize
  • Birth rates declined soon after death rates did.
    Contraception became more widespread.
  • Industrialization and urbanization meant less
    need for family labour.
  • Population did not double every 25 years
  • Cultivation of new territories in the Americas
    and Australia also added to the food supply

7
  • Better health (public and personal hygiene and
    better food) meant lower death rates.
  • More children survived people lived longer.
  • Child labour laws and mandatory schooling laws
    meant child had to be supported far longer.
  • Children became economic liabilities instead of
    assets.
  • Family size shrank.
  • Nonetheless Malthusian theory is still relevant
  • Many economists believe the time will come when
    natural systems will no longer be able to support
    the worlds population

8
Many economists believe the time will come when
natural systems will no longer be able to support
the worlds population
  • Darfur?
  • AIDs?

9
Darfur a Case Study
10
Background
  • The dire situation in Darfur dates back to March
    2003
  • Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) accused President
    Omar Hassan El-Bashir of neglecting the region
    and oppressing black Africans in favour of Arabs
    in the state of Darfur.
  • The two sides met in armed conflicts since this
    time and more than 200,000 people have been
    killed while another200,000 have fled to Chad.
  • Arab militias, with links to the government,
    have destroyed food and water resources in West
    Darfur, Sudan.
  • Governments have warned of possible genocide in
    the region

11
Famine
  • Darfur may well be the first war influenced by
    climate change
  • In recent years, increasing drought cycles and
    the Sahara's southward expansion have created
    conflicts between nomadic and sedentary groups
    over shortages of water and land

12
  • Climate change, population growth, rising
    consumption patterns and globalization are all
    contributing to the phenomenon
  • In places like Africa the infrastructure and the
    government are weak
  • This allows pressures to multiply and creates
    conflicts and schisms
  • These conflicts often occur along religious or
    tribal lines since that is how society is
    organized

13
Population
  • Like most African nations Sudan is experiencing
    high levels of population growth
  • Natural Increase 2.6
  • Population is expected to double by 2050

14
William Catton
  • Catton wrote Overshoot The Ecological Basis of
    Revolutionary Change which examined current
    population trends
  • Catton coined the term carrying capacity
  • People accused him of being a neo-Malthusian
    (attempting to revive Malthus theory)
  • Carrying capacity is defined as the number of
    people a given environment can support
    indefinitely
  • Therefore the needs of the population are
    balanced against the health of the environment

15
Can the world carry an increasingly affluent
Population?
  • Catton believed that European expansion into
    under populated areas of the Western and Southern
    Hemispheres in the sixteenth and seventeenth
    centuries, laid the foundation for todays
    population crisis
  • Once growth and prosperity became common, people
    expected the spiral to continue
  • This led to the drawing down of non-renewable
    resources (stealing of resources from future
    generations)
  • Catton argues that once the earths non-renewable
    resources are gone, the earths carrying capacity
    will drop dramatically

16
D.J. BOGUE
  • Writing in the 1960s, D.J. Bogue described what
    he called the theory of demographic regulation
  • Meaning, over an extended period of time society
    naturally limits its population.
  • Population will only grow if the Earth is able to
    support it.
  • The population explosion of the last 150 years
    may lead people to believe that this theory does
    not work, however supports of demographic
    regulation believe that the industrial revolution
    has dramatically raised Earths carrying
    capacity, and the worlds population has been
    adjusting to this increase.
  • Sweden has completed this process, while for a
    country like Mexico this process continues

17
Examples of Demographic Regulation
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