Water Futures

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Water Futures Frank Rijsberman
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Why Scenarios?

• Futurists think out of the box
• Models extrapolate the current structure
• Over 25 years the structure is likely to change
  (e.g. think telephones or air travel)
• Scenarios start qualitatively, with drivers and a
  (consistent) storyline then can be explored
  with models

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Focus Surprises

• For which India are we designing water futures?
• The India of the 1970s?
• The India of today?
• Or the India of our children?

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Climate Change

• Scientific debate started in 70s
• AGGG 1984-1987
• IPCC started1989 produced 3 assessments
• UNFCCC 1992 (Johannesburg) JI, CDM
• Kyoto Protocol entered into force early 05
• Lesson issue with major scientific uncertainty
  led to massive action due to careful combination
  of scenario analysis, modeling, impact assessment
  and political lobbying

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Lessons

• Shared datasets agreeing on basic water
  availability numbers
• Widely accepted definitions blue / green water
  water productivity withdrawal / consumption
• Range of models from field to global scales
• Exploring uncertainty / change through scenarios
  exposing and analysing different points of view
  / values

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Context today

• IAASTD intergovernmental assessment on
  agriculture ST for development
• CA global assessment water, food, environment
• WaterSim global model on water, food and
  environment
• PodiumSim for India analysis of water demand
  and availability for Indian river basins
• Datasets such a irrigated area maps for India

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RiverLinking project drivers

• Exogenous drivers
• Exogenous to India
• Exogenous to the water sector
• Endogenous drivers
• Where are the surprises of tomorrow??

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Exogenous drivers

• World trade (in food)
• Relations with neighbours (Pakistan, Nepal,
  Bangladesh on water issues China on economic
  interaction / regional power)
• Migration within India
• Relationships among states collaboration or not
• Shifts in the economy to sectors/states
• Diet (meat consumption)
• Private sector / NGOsvs. government roles

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Endogenous drivers

• Desalination pricing
• Biotechnology
• Community action led by NGOs
• Valuation of environmental water services
• Ecological sanitation and re-use of waste water
• Deficit irrigation
• Rainfed-irrigation continuum

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Recommendations

• Develop agreed, publicly available basic
  datasets rainfall, streamflow, landuse, major
  diversions, demographics,
• Have range of models that agree to use shared
  datasets
• Explore definitions of water use/consumption
• Explore scenario drivers economic growth,
  dietary changes, urbanization, WTO
• Develop and analyse transparent scenarios