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Title: FROM ASI


1
FROM ASIS DISTRETTO VIRTUALE (DV) STATISTCAL
PANEL SPACE SECTORS REPORTSYou find here a
collection of progressive reports on the trends
of Italys space sector based on 2.0 data
collected from the DV Panel (see next slide)
firms. A periodical subdivision is necessary to
preserve the Panel consistency vis a vis the
business evolution (firms status changes,
closures, new entries, etc)
  • PART 1 Italys space sector trends
    2013-15General data summary as it simply emerges
    from automatic reporting available for authorized
    portal users workforce, production, RD
  • PART 2 The DV statistical survey
    2010-12General data as above are specifically
    investigated under more complex and varied
    indexes elimination of production double counts,
    RD efficiency indexes, space economy activities
    assessment, structure and evolution of demand and
    market (public, strategic, downstream,
    international competition)

2
PART 1 ITALYS SPACE SECTOR TRENDS 2013-15The
construction and operation of the DV Panel, its
definitions / metrics, its reliability and
meaningfulness have been assessed by a dedicated
ESA WG (Pilot Group of the Space Economy Commttee
in 2016) led by ASIThe Pilot finally and fully
adopted the DV Survey methodology for the online
european test questionnaire on ESAs website
(Space Economy / Industry Survey)
3
The 2013-15 Panel consists of 71 entities with 55
firms (all majors are there and 36 SMEs) /
benchmark ASD
YEAR ASI Distretto Virtuale (DV) - Italy ASI Distretto Virtuale (DV) - Italy ASI Distretto Virtuale (DV) - Italy ASI Distretto Virtuale (DV) - Italy ASD Eurospace Europe (EU and other) ASD Eurospace Europe (EU and other) ASD Eurospace Europe (EU and other) ASD Eurospace Europe (EU and other)
  TURNOVER M Of which SMEs WORKFORCE Of which SMEs TURNOVER M (current) () Of which SMEs WORKFORCE Of which SMEs

2010 1482,5 82,3 5934,2 594,2 6146   34247  
2011 1496,2 77,4 6123,3 582 6375   35144  
2012 1615 73,2 6207 628 6555 152,7 35679 2527
2013 1567 56,2 5840 470 6815 36184
2014 1670 56,2 5847 484 7258 38233
2015 1642 44,2 5691 400 7500 42400
() DV statistical index does not consolidate
values (i.e. subtracts subcos from national
primes activities, chain value double counts,
imports). DV uses Value of Production to measure
turnover, and includes Research Entities and
Services, the latter being Downstream () ASD
Aerospace consolidates values, uses Sales to
estimate turnover, does not consider RI and
Services (Downstream)
4
Despite some differences in metrics from the
european benchmark (absence of space downstream
assessment, consolidation of double counts, etc.)
which makes it more restricted, Italys DV data
indicate a slight growth of turnover, even if
rate appears slowerWorkforce instead shows a
slightly decreasing trend. Therefore the
elementary productivity ratio (turnover /
employees) is constantly up in the last years, to
288,5K in 2015 (ca 30 more than in 2012 see
Part 2)
5
The DV data show a progressive reduction in the
SMEs share (also compare data in Part 2), in
turnover as well as in workforce turnover
decreases from 5,55 of total in 2010 to 2,69 in
2015, workforce from 10 to 7,08. SMEs
productivity comes to 110,4K in 2015, that is
from ca 50 to ca 1/3 of the sectors main.
Anyway italian space SMEs role seems to realign
to EU standardsRegarding the sectors structure
in general, DV data dont show a reduction of
concentration. The inevitable drive toward a
more open competition appears, as for the whole
EU, to proceed slowly
Concentration indexes from DV data Hirschmann Herfindhal and C Concentration indexes from DV data Hirschmann Herfindhal and C Concentration indexes from DV data Hirschmann Herfindhal and C Concentration indexes from DV data Hirschmann Herfindhal and C Concentration indexes from DV data Hirschmann Herfindhal and C Concentration indexes from DV data Hirschmann Herfindhal and C
Benchmark ASD 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015
HHI turnover 2402 2679 2688 2505
HHI workforce 2020 2492 2440 2433
C4 turnover 79 79,48 79,82 78,35
C4 workforce 72 70,11 69,23 72,09
C6 turnover 87,3 87,18 87,81 89,36
C6 workforce 78,3 77,88 77,23 79,89
6
Concerning RD expenditure (which the DV
requires to account in strict compliance with
OECD Frascati Manual), the sector confirms its
high propension with an average ratio
RD/turnover in line with european standards
(10), and constantly higher than the overall
economy and the area of hi tech (1 and 5
respectively according to Eurostat data 2010)As
for the general trends the SMEs show signs of a
decreasing performance, which surely requires
further investigation
RD activities in the italian space sector as by ASI DV data M RD activities in the italian space sector as by ASI DV data M RD activities in the italian space sector as by ASI DV data M RD activities in the italian space sector as by ASI DV data M RD activities in the italian space sector as by ASI DV data M
Benchmark ASD 2012 2013 2014 2015
Overall expenditure RD/Turnover 10 163,44 (10,43) 159,73 (9,56) 153,82 (9,36)
Of which SMEs 8,98 (15,07) 9,014 (16,09) 5.138 (11,62)
7
The previous data, directly available from the
DV, can only offer a partial view of the
effective trends of the sector. We are seeking
collaboration with other public entities
interested in space, to join our statistical
working group and perform as it was partly done
in the previous enquiry 2010-12 additional
measurement and indexing proposed in the ESA
model. See i.e. the following outline
Main additional measurements and indexing to be performed on DV data Main additional measurements and indexing to be performed on DV data Main additional measurements and indexing to be performed on DV data
Measure / index Benchmark Technical notes
Productivity based on Value added (EBDIAT personnel or EBDIAT) / turnover Overall Italys manufacture sector index EBDIAT with workforce is ca. 25 Verify and keep higher sectoral averages (as resulting from samples) and investigate where
Efficiency of RD investiment 1) subsidy coverage and of which public leverage, 2) Space Revealed Technology Advantage RTA or similar (i.e. M/patent ) In Italy subsidy coverage is higher than in Europe as well as public contribution (almost 100 of all contributions). Leverage effect is therefore strong and so potential policies Italy (OECD data) is not among countries with space RTA gt1. If RTA not monitorable at least maintain upper ratio value in terms of a) EPO patents, b) EPO patents TRL or other achievements / publications
Positive growing share of production in Downstream, Space Related, Private demand and competitive (no UE) market Italy is shy of meeting latest european benchmarks of Space Economy evolution, i.e. growing Private demand, Downstream and Space related, non UE mkts Additional recall is necessary to assess and verify precisely shares of the following toward the relative optimal benchmarks (ASD 2012) increase of private and no UE demand to 50 (no UE 20)
8
PART 2 - THE DV STATISTICAL SURVEY 2010-12 The
Distretto Virtuale (D.V.) is a web 2.0 (user
generated content) portal on the Italian Space
Agency website. Among other it is providing, for
several years now, reliable indexes for measuring
the main trends of the sector
9
THE PANEL
  • Speciale care is taken in ensuring consistency
    of the panel through the years . The panel is
    actually composed of 77 firms of which (see
    following table)
  • 43 are SMEs highlighted in green
  • 16 are Research Institutions (RI)/Universities,
    highlighted in purple
  • 18 are Large entreprises. Of which the 6 majors
    only (Thalesaleniaspace, Telespazio, Avio,
    SelexES, ELV and eGeos) account for 86,5 of
    turnover and 72,2 of workforce
  • In case of important changes in the nature of
    the panel subjects (modification of SMEs
    status, new setups, closings, etc.), a panel
    period is closed (see 2010-12) and its data
    frozen to allow detailed comparisons with
    previous or future panel indexes
  • The user generated data are validated through a
    process of recalls and interviews / audits on
    each panel participant. This process is carried
    out jointly by an open inter - institutional
    Working Group which currently includes CNR,
    ENAC, Universities and Industrial Associations.
    An extension of the panel to a larger number of
    research entities is under consideration as well
    to some more satellite terminal manufacturers, in
    order to improve the Downstream (catering to
    terrestrial users market) sector consistency.

10
List of firms registered in the D.V. statistical
panel
11
D.V. METRICS AND DEFINITIONS
Definitions Description Details and examples Notes
Perimeter of space sector Activities for the production of whatever good or service is intrinsically and physically conneted to the space environment, and their accessory activities (launch and flight operations, design, testing, consultancy, sw,etc.), including Ground user segm. Satellite based services of communication, data distribution and treatment. No sat TV channels providers. No generic services (finance, insurance, event organisation, etc.). Consumer goods included. Most european sources (ESA, ASD Eurospace, ecc.) use an industry oriented definition excluding services (and generally also consumer goods). Anyway services strictly accessory to production (see 2nd column beside) are included
Panel composition Stable, in principle, but data are periodically closed and panel reviewed to reflect meaningful changes in the structure of the sector. Panel data over 2010-12 are frozen and collection over 2013-15 is ongoing Permanent establishments in Italy of foreign firms can be included as they contribute to the national production. In case of a firms termination its data are kept in the past years series. Mergers and acquisitions dealt with case by case. Panel includes main Research Institutions (RI) Changes occurr in years in the panel structure (transitions from SME status to Large Entreprise, retrospective data trimming) and may cause slight differences in the figures of past years on each new release. Other sources instead, generally do not cover Research Institutions (except in recent ESA evolutions)
Turnover, double counts and consolidation Turnover definition as by Title A of standard EU Profit and Loss Account i.e. Value of Production (comprehensive of evalutation of works in progress, contributions, non operational revenue, etc.) Elimination of double counts on a case by case basis (i.e. data from consortia of registered firms, their mother companies, etc.). Turnover optionally available net of subcontracts from italian primes (national consolidation) Most european sources refer to sales,with trimmings on double counts. Turnover may be showed with / without subcontracts from EU primes, and defined, respectively, unconsolidated / total sales and consolidated / final sales
12
Definitions Description Details and examples Notes
Downstream sector Specific turnover categories covering plants, goods and services directly produced for the terrestrian users Supply of satellite band for TLC PRS, distribution and interpretation of space data (Earth Observation) and navigation services. User segment and consumer terminals (navigator units, sat phones, etc.). Mission control activities are excluded Other sources in the EU (i.e. UK) include low space content services (lt20 of turnover) like Satellite TV, as well as finance and insurance and mission control activities. The Downstream size may therefore appear much bigger ()
RD activities RD activities as a measure of potential for innovation is calculated as by the OECD Frascati Manual, that is only counting RD performed formally at the firms own expenses (inclusive of possible external contributions). The evaluation of independent RD is based on capital (i.e. for prototypes, patent rights) and current (i.e. RD personnel, related management) expenditure. Capital exp. is yearly flat (no amortment) Similar definition by other sources in Europe, that is contracted and inhouse activities for products in pre-operational, pre-competitive phase (up to TRL 6-7). ()
SMEs Status self certification by the firms according to the EU current standards SMEs status verified periodically Other sources in Europe firms size status mostly verified with external audits
Deflators Not applied in principle Other sources in Europe make use of deflators (i.e. OECD standards) for better measurement of long term series
These aspects are topics of discussion with
ESAs relevant offices with an aim of
integrating and coordinating these definitions
in the OECD Handbook on Measuring the Space
Economy
13
THE FIGURES
  • The D.V. generates an automatic data output
    organised in two areas with their relative
    indexes and european benchmarks. Every output
    contains a separate SMEs evalutation
  • Each area also offers a store of verified data
    for detailed outsourced specific surveys on .i.e.
    productive organisation and productivity, export
    propension, effectiveness of RD effort, impact
    of public expenditure for space, spillovers and
    extended impact vis a vis different sectors.
  • General trends of turnover and employees yearly
    series, sectors organisation (concentration and
    standard productivity), levels of RD investment
  • Structure of turnover public strategical (ASI,
    ESA), EU private, extra EU. Downstream share,
    share of other sub-sectors

Among the main detailed outsourced studies
consider IAC Naples 2012 paper Private and
social returns to space investments are we able
to measure them ? (G.Graziola, G.P.
Sciortino),, The italian space industry in
2010. A preliminary report using data from the
italian Space Agency Distretto Virtuale DB
2013 (same authors). Respectively an analysis of
the Downstream activities and of the sectors
organisation (governance, integration,
concentration) and productivity.
14
General trends of turnover and employees yearly
series appear as follows
Year ASI Distretto Virtuale (DV) - Italy ASI Distretto Virtuale (DV) - Italy ASI Distretto Virtuale (DV) - Italy ASI Distretto Virtuale (DV) - Italy ASD Eurospace Europe (EU and other) ASD Eurospace Europe (EU and other) ASD Eurospace Europe (EU and other) ASD Eurospace Europe (EU and other)
  TURNOVER M Of which SMEs WORKFORCE Of which SMEs TURNOVER M (current) () Of which SMEs WORKFORCE Of which SMEs
2000 860 ()   5770 ()   5561   33207  
                                                                                                           
2008 799 ()   3985 ()          
2009 1420,4 99 5614 849        
2010 1482,5 1410,4 () 82,3 5934,2 594,2 6146   34247  
2011 1496,2 1418,9 () 77,4 6123,3 582 6375   35144  
2012 1615 1558,6 () 73,2 6207 628 6555 152,7 35679 2527
() DV statistical index not operational data
imported from ASD Eurospace (turnover by constant
values 2008) () Consolidated values (final
sales) turnover (minus) value of subcontracts
from european primes industrial perimeter (no
services, no Research Inst.).() Consolidated
value turnover (minus) value of subcontracts
from italian primes
15
Turnover series
ASD Eurospace - Europe (EU and other)
ASI (DV) - Italy
DV data are not consolidated and include
services (2009 is not part of the current panel)
Data dont include services, are consolidated,
and dont include RI
16
Workforce series
ASI (DV) - Italy
ASD Eurospace - Europe (EU and other)
See notes for figure above
17
  • Turnover appears stable over the 2010-12 period
    and in line with the authoritative european
    benchmark offered by ASD Eurospace series . As
    regards SMEs the turnover trend is instead
    negative.
  • As to productive organisation, concentration
    index C6 is very high (see slide 3) and slightly
    on the increase over the 2010-12 period . From
    84,8 to 86,5 and from 70,7 to 72,2 respectively
    on turnover and workforce. A more suitable C6
    index excluding research entities shows even
    higher values in 2012 87,3 and 78,3
    respectively.
  • The standard sector productivity rate (Turnover /
    Employees), calculated net of the research
    entities where it is obviously unsuitable,
    increases from 268,5k in 2010, to 259,4k in
    2011, to 279,6k in 2012 as a result of an
    increase in turnover slightly higher than in the
    worforce. These values are relatively higher than
    the average values reported by ESA and ASD
    Eurospace and appear more or less in line with
    other hi-tech sectors in Italy.
  • A further benchmarking, although not recent,
    comes from the ESA 2008-10 survey which in turn
    confirmed a slight increase in the trends
    (unconsolidated turnover inclusive of Research
    Institutions) showing an average figure of
    11692M for the whole european sector (inclusive
    of non european member countries like Canada)
    where Italy was ranking in third place with 14
    of the total after France and Germany
  • See again the ESA 2008 10 Survey Italy
    Report

18
  • As to SMEs, the negative turnover trend, brings
    their share below the 5 mark productivity rate
    falls from 138,5k to 116,6k over the same
    period, that is much lower than the 50 of the
    sectors average kept in the last years
  • Nevertheless, italian SMEs still seem to have a
    bigger role in the sector, compared with the
    european standards reported by ESA and ASD
    Eurospace, that is ca. 2 of turnover, 7 of
    workforce and lower levels of productivity
  • The monitoring of turnover is now integrated with
    the monitoring of RD activities, as defined in
    the Metrics and definitions section before.
    This specific survey, agreed within the panels
    Working Group (see slide 3 on the Panel), has
    been introduced to measure, complying with the
    latest international guidelines, the potential
    for innovation deployed by the country. The
    extension of the panel to Research Entities
    follows the same logic. The relevant index is the
    RD / Turnover ratio

19
  • The RD / Turnover ratio has been over the period
    2010-12 as high as 0,20 in 2010 and 2011 but
    declining to 0,14 in 2012. The SMEs relative
    index is 0,21 in 2010, 0,20 in 2011 and 0,24 in
    2012.
  • The benchmark offered by ESA is of 0,10 yearly
    average for the whole sector and 0,20 for the
    SMEs alone, in that making the space sector a
    record setter in the field.
  • It is therefore clear that Italy shows an even
    stronger innovation propension, with SMEs playing
    an important stimulating role.
  • ESA Survey 2008-10

20
  • The data area of General trends of turnover and
    employees could be better integrated with
    outsourced elaborations of more sophisticated
    indexes (see for instance those applied in the
    study on the year 2010 footnote slide 7)
  • A more accurate concentration and productive
    integration analysis, applying HHI and other
    similar indexes, with the relative benchmarks
  • A more detailed productivity analysis applying VA
    and EBITDA / Workforce ratios, instead of simple
    Turnover, and the relative benchmarks
  • A new approach in determining the actual value of
    productions, applying not only the deductions of
    subco activities (consolidation) but also other
    macroscopic factors such as the value of
    subcontracts carried out by foreign firms, which
    exit from the GNP count. This would in fact lead
    to substantially lower values, although not very
    meaningful without a common european benchmark
    see following table
  • Hirschmann Herfindal Index is calculated by
    squaring the market share of each firm competing
    in the market and then summing the resulting
    numbers. If HHI 10.000 (the maximum possible
    value) there is no concentration in the market
    and the firm is a monopolist if HHI 0, it
    indicates perfect competition.

21
Minus subcontracts from italian primes and
subcontracts given to foreign firms
22
  • An analysis of the actual effects of the RD
    activities (the potential for innovation) which
    are now quantitatively monitored on a regular
    basis.
  • To do so it will be probably necessary to keep
    track separately from the total of the Research
    Entities activities, and also treat separately,
    among the entreprises, the contracted (somewhat
    captive) RD, in order to evaluate the actual
    self-generated drives to innovation at all
    levels, public and private
  • On the outcome side the indicators which could
    be taken into consideration are various a) ratio
    between Number of patented space EPO (European
    Patent Office) space technologies per year / 1M
    expenditure in RD , b) the RTA (Revealed
    Technology Advantage) index , c) D.V. based
    indexes from the tech db
  • Previous studies based on EPO (European
    Patent Office) registered patents revealed that
    the european space sector had a very low
    efficiency of expenditure (0,5) compared to other
    sectors. Studies based on the RTA index showed
    on the other hand a good performance of the space
    sector in terms of absolute innovation
    production, especially in countries like France
    (value 3) lower value for Italy

23
  • One last elaboration, triggered within the panel
    and the Working Group, and dealt with in the
    second part of this presentation, has not been
    outsourced but carried out by the WG in the form
    of a test model, open for further improvements
  • It is an attempt to monitor and measure the
    selective extended impacts of space activities in
    terms of production, employment, etc. both inside
    and outside the sector (in different productive
    fields), with a special focus on the role of
    public strategic expenditure and its multiplier
    results on space and non space markets
  • This elaboration, starting from the general data
    and benchmark of the D.V. panel, was accomplished
    with specific interviews by the WG of the
    Distretto Virtuale panel to all of the panel
    subjects, within the routine yearly recall for
    data trimming and validation
  • Go to slide n.26 for the presentation of the
    results.
  • A special thank from the authors goes to all
    the other Working Group participants who
    contributed to the data collection and
    organisation for the accomplishment of the
    study Elisabetta Bergamini (ENAC) whos also
    co-author of this presentation, Prof. G.Graziola
    and C.Diena (Univ. of Bergamo), G.P. Colonna (CNR
    Italy), Yulianna Losyeva (ASI)

24
Structure of turnover EU public / strategic, EU
private, extra EU yearly series appear as follows
ASD Eurospace (consolidated, current,
industrial / no services, no RI) data as by slide
n.8 Includes all turnover originated by ASI or
ESA, both in the form of direct contracts and as
subcontracts from primes engaged by the said
Agencies. In the case of ASD Eurospace data the
public demand covers all contracts and not only
those related to the Agencies Remaining
turnover from EU public and private employers,
other than public strategic share as above. A
different definition for ASD Eurospace data,
according to the above note
25
(No Transcript)
26
  • As appears clearly from the data and graphs the
    structure of turnover reveals a certain unbalance
    toward public / strategic demand (ASI, ESA). ASI
    and ESA sources are largely prevailing within the
    general public expenditure (the rest is
    represented by a minor share of other space
    institutions, the military market, the italian
    Regions, the tendered RD public financing).
  • This unbalance is anyway decreasing and bringing
    this share of the market closer to the european
    average. ASIs decreasing budget is one of the
    reasons
  • The ongoing market reallocation brings to a
    higher than average share of the remaining EU
    orders (private / non strategic), while the share
    of extra EU markets keeps declining, in that
    revealing maybe a weal competivity, in those
    non captive areas rich in opportunities

27
  • Some might question the reliability of these
    terms of comparison, as the various differences
    in metrics and definitions used by our benchmark,
    are at the same time overestimating (inclusion of
    all public orders in the strategic demand) and
    partly restricting the strategic demand
    (consolidation of subcontracts which are often
    originated by it, exclusion of RI and tendered
    subsidies sales approach)
  • Another more compatible elaboration, from ESA
    Survey 2008-10, reporting the yearly european
    average turnover (unconsolidated, wider sector
    perimeter, inclusive of Research Institutions) on
    constant 2010 values (see footnote at slide 11),
    worth 11692,2M leads to the following breakdown,
    and therefore back to the same conclusions
  • Public european demand (all public contracts)
    5.758,1 M (49,3)
  • Private european demand (all private contracts)
    4.100,4 M (35,1)
  • Turnover from Rest of World
    1.833,55 M (15,6)

28
  • As to SMEs, for which a likewise european
    benchmark was not found, the unbalance toward
    public / strategic demand is again as clear, and
    even increasing, with a shrinking non strategic
    public market and a very little share of
    international operations.
  • The following table reports the figures of SMEs
    taken from the D.V. panel over the 2010-12 period

M 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012
Total turnover 82,3 100 77,4 100 73,2 100
EU Public strategic 41,07 49,9 42,4 54,8 41,4 56,6
EU non strategic 39,5 48,1 33,1 42,6 29,3 40
RoW 1,63 2 1,9 2,6 2,5 3,4
29
Structure of turnover - Downstream (DS) share,
other subsectors yearly series appear as follows
() ASD Eurospace (industrial, consolidated,
current, no RI, no services, sales based) data as
by slide n.8 and 18
30
  • The above breakdown represents a clear
    orientation towards the UpStream section of
    production, that is toward the flight and mission
    system (note for instance the relevance of the
    space transportation share), rather than to the
    use of space for terrestrian services, commonly
    defined as the Downstream section (DS).
  • The latter section (see the definitions at slide
    5 in the D.V.Metrics part) has anyway become all
    the more important as it shows, so to say, what
    comes back as a benefit (for the economy and for
    society), from the investment in a space system
    capable of producing services on Earth, therefore
    legitimating the relative effort and public
    expenditure
  • The D.V. is therefore monitoring the trends of
    the DS share of turnover in the last years,
    which appears alarmingly decreasing, from 20,5
    in 2010, to 17 in 2012. As to SMEs the same
    index is much more positive in 2010-12 (47, 43,
    42 respectively) even if slightly declining

31
  • Coming to further possible elaboration of the
    structure of turnover, the benchmarking is the
    major problem here as the DS definitions can be
    very diverse and hamper comparisons.
  • The D.V. conservative definition, includes
    production for terrestrian usage (ground data as
    well as user segment mainly resulting from
    satellite infrastructure), in terms of services,
    plant and hardware, on condition the space
    content is above a minimum (ca.20) , it is less
    strictly applied by other countries the case of
    satellite TV is well known
  • At the opposite end there are the main
    institutional sources (see ESA) who do not
    include services in their metrics, thus
    excluding the biggest part of the Downstream
    turnover
  • This is the case also with ASD Eurospace, and
    therefore even the benchmark offered in the table
    above for Europe, is scarcely meaningful
  • Moreover, these comparisons should be made
    between space faring countries because,
    obviously, some countries dont have at all, or
    to a limited extent, an UpStream space sector

32
  • MEASURING TWO-WAY IMPACTS OF SPACE / NON SPACE
    OPERATIONS IN THE PERFORMANCE OF SPACE FIRMS A
    TEST MODEL BASED ON D.V. PANEL DATA AND
    INTERVIEWS
  • We finally come to the presentation of a first
    attempt made, using the D.V. panel, to derive
    indexes of impact as above, with the aim of
    improving the monitoring of the important
    influences and effects of non space
    space economy and viceversa space non
    space economy)
  • The idea of the D.V. Working Group was to
    contribute an anticipation to a possible more
    detailed survey (like the various other proposed
    to integrate the General trends of turnover and
    employees , data area), in the form of a model
    that would make the best possible use of D.V.
    panel data (turnover, workforce, productivity,
    RD, efficiency of public expenditure) as well as
    of the auditing procedure of the same
    (interviews)



33
  • The first step, to reduce the field of
    investigation for the test, was to determine a
    specific turnover and RD technical domain that
    could present sizeable connections related with
    non space economies and business
  • Although the D.V. panel itself offered a choice
    of customised areas like space transportation,
    propulsion, the DS section itself, where a stock
    of data were already available and categorised
    (turnover, RD activity), the choice fell on the
    cross cutting sectors of software production
    (including embedded sw) and hybrid space
    aeronautics / aviation production
  • This choice was made on account of the better
    chances for positive results, in investigating,
    on one side, an area (sw) where, by definition,
    the propension to openness and technological
    transfer is highest, and, on the other side, an
    area which is by far the closest and elective
    neighbor in physical and technical terms. As for
    methodology and complexity, this choice was also
    more appealing and challenging

34
  • So, 45 out of the 77 firms making up the original
    panel were qualified for a dedicated sub-panel,
    as they satisfied the relevant condition of being
    oriented to one or both of these areas, that is
    having 20 or more activity on space turnover,
    incorporated in the same, at least in the two
    final years.
  • Alternatively, the same percentage could be
    verified on the space RD activities, as an
    evidence of the firms attitude to actually enter
    into the above operations
  • The impact sub-panel is composed of 45 firms,
    of which 25 are SMEs, 10 are Large entreprises
    (only 2 from the top 6 and 1 of them is in the
    top 4), and 10 are Research Institutions. 30
    qualified on sw, 8 on hybrid space / aerospace, 7
    on both fields
  • Data treatment and integration through audits
    began in the expectation that the given
    characteristics of these firms, and their
    presumed better two-ways interconnection with
    the non space context, could result in more
    positive (above average) indicators and trends

35
Non space toward space activities effects on
the impact subpanel firms performance
  • The first stage of the survey was hence dedicated
    to non space space aspects and effects.
    The second stage attempts to examine in the
    opposite sense.
  • As to the trend of production the sub-panel
    showed a substantial standstill against the
    slight increase of the main panel and as to the
    trend of workforce the same slight increase of
    the main panel. This probably happened because,
    as it has been said, the sub-panel shaped up with
    some bias toward the SMEs and their trends.
    Nevertheless, the positive SMEs attitude toward
    RD is much enhanced. Productivity index is in
    turn kept fairly high thanks to the counterstream
    downward trend of SMEs workforce

36
Results of the impact sub-panel parameters
2010-12
Sub panel Main panel Notes
Variation of Value of space production from 2010 0,99 1,04 Average of values 2011/10 and 2012/2011
Variation of RD activities 0,96 0,89 See above
Variation of Workforce 1,02 1,02 See above
Level of productivity 198 269 3 yearly current average of turnover / workforce. In k
  • N.B. The standard deviation on the sub-panel
    population of the above values is as follows and
    suggests a rather strong sway of the values
    around their averages
  • VoP variation 0,47 moderate
  • RD activities variation 0,53 moderate
  • Workforce variation 1,13 strong
  • Productivity level 187,6 strong

37
Specific SMEs parameters from the previous table
Sub panel (SMEs) Main panel (SMEs) Notes
Variation of Value of space production from 2010 0,93 0,94 Average values of 2011/10 and 2012/2011
Variation of RD activities 1,08 1,02 See above
Variation of Workforce 0,97 1,03 See above
Level of productivity 127,8 129 3 yearly current average of turnover / workforce. In k
Beside the SMEs the sub-panel applied a specific
focus to differentiate possible trends of the
software oriented firms, from those oriented to
hybrid space aeronautics productions. It
clearly appears that the latter sample is
performing much better, reporting a positive
production trend almost equal to the main panel,
and a stable RD activity level through the
period, employment under control and a higher
productvity rate
38
Subpanel focus on section of firms reporting (not
exclusively) software production (including
embedded sw)
Subpanel (sw focus) Sub panel Main panel Notes
Variation of Value of space production from 2010 0,96 0,99 1,04 Average values of 2011/10 and 2012/2011
Variation of RD activities 0,97 0,96 0,89 See above
Variation of Workforce 1,03 1,02 1,02 See above
Level of productivity 175,6 198 269 3 yearly current average of turnover / workforce. In k
39
Subpanel focus on section of firms reporting (not
exclusively) hybrid space aeronautics production
Subpanel (hyb focus) Sub panel Main panel Notes
Variation of Value of space production from 2010 1,03 0,99 1,04 Average values of 2011/10 and 2012/2011
Variation of RD activities 0,99 0,96 0,89 See above
Variation of Workforce 1,01 1,02 1,02 See above
Level of productivity 176 198 269 3 yearly current average of turnover / workforce. In k
40
Space toward non space activities effects on
the impact subpanel firms performance
  • The second phase of the test survey explores some
    aspects of space non space interactions
    and particularly the drive toward the non space
    market and ground users which seems to be now of
    utmost concern for the State space Agencies
  • The parameters into consideration are verified on
    the last year only (2012) as follows
  • A) the presence of non space sample productions -
    we will refer to these as pivot productions
    inasmuch as they serve as starting point to
    connect and measure all other non space
    activities and business of each firm - that can
    best represent effective transfers of space
    knowledge, skills, innovation and system
    organisation, crucial for the output of goods,
    plants or services and the related non space
    turnover (in that meaning it incorporates a space
    component not higher than 20 of the supply
    value). The assessment of conservative constant
    turnover and related employment connected to
    these pivots likely to generate income dating
    at the latest from 2013 on the mid term

41
  • B) the measurement of enlarged non space
    production and employment in the same firms where
    the pivots are located, that, regardless of the
    relative domain, have the same general
    characteristics of the pivot areas that is being
    intimately and crucially connected to the space
    technology, skills, system organisation,
    innovation. The measurent of public strategic
    spending injected in favour of each firm in the
    test year (direct and indirect ASI and ESA
    spending - funding), and the complementing space
    turnover outside of this area. All this, in order
    to derive for each firm a multiplier of the
    abovesaid strategic spending and the space and
    non space connected turnover (the aforementioned
    enalarged evaluation of aforementioned non space
    - but space derived - business
  • C) ancillary indicators applied to the responding
    firms to reasses the indexes developed in the
    first part to the smaller scale and peculiarity
    of this sample

42
  • The first step, performed within this sub-panel,
    was to obtain responses from the firms that could
    present a valid pivot case, as described above
    (see a). 14 firms replied successfully. 15
    examples of pivot where retained, because one
    firm presented 2 cases.
  • 10 pivot cases where collected in the software
    production field, 5 in the hybrid space
    aeronautics domain. See the following tables for
    details

Pivot case Lines of business - hyb Notes
Form memory actuated inflatable emergency devices for light aviation. Space tech replaces successfully firework likewise devices Specific promising line of business (domestic, EU) within the firm. Space production organisation, skills, innovation supports much wider non space production (defense) and relative employment. Staff over 60 units SME with minor share of turnover in space
Specialised optronics sw and integration system for surveillance drones Small line of business within multisector SME. Other non space / space derived turnover (see SW). Small dedicated staff SME with partial turnover in space (advanced sw designer and integrator)
Restricted technology for aviation and defence deriving from payload expertise Small line of business (helicopters). No enlarged non space / space derived VoP. Small dedicated staff SME fully oriented to space. First experience outside this sector
Space microwave radar technology transfered into AESA radar supply for defence aviation Small line of business of SME strongly oriented to space SME univ. spinoff.
Supply of hyperspectral optics for surveillance avionics. Pivot extends into wider and stable supply of surveillance systems (UAV) with satellite inspired guidance navigation unit in the range of 20M. Dedicated staff of over 60 units Large entreprise, multisectoral. Space is partial branch activity
43
Pivot case Lines of business - software Notes
Patented sw and kit hosting service for skin cancer scanning derived from hi-resolution satellite image treatment. Supply to pharmacies networks. Specific promising line of business (mainly domestic) partly within the firm and partly by a trader (agent, specialists, staff) summing up to ca. 1M year . Total employement involved (inhouse and outside) 5.Market forecast to multiply by 5 clients in the short term. SME with almost all production for space
Space derived (multisource satelite imagery treatment) sw for dermatologists Smallest line of business within SME dedicated Unit which plans to extend similar services to smartphone applications, such as spot sun radiation measures and relative sunshield dosing. But main non space / space derived production is in optronics and integrated systems for drones (see Hyb) SME with partial turnover in space (advanced sw designer and integrator)
Sw and integrated multisource radar console systems for ATM (both civil and military) derived from space MCC communication expertise, skills and quality organisation (payload). Minor positioning component included Sizeable line of business expands into other similar inhouse lines for ATM (again) and naval monitoring, integrating 3d imagery. Everything becomes one main share of prevailing non space productions of this firm (ca. 10M). Staff involved over 50 Large entreprise now mostly oriented to non space productions for civil and military uses
Software in situ (vehicle) terminal sensor central service, for the monitoring / remote conditioning (road truck positioning) of valuable or fragile goods. It evolves from expertise, skills and organisation in mission control center payload dialogue, as well as in ground and user segment space services supply (positioning, satellite imagery, etc.), i.e. in healthcare, emergency response, archaeology Smallest line of business of SME strongly oriented to ground services and technologies from space. These services and goods have favorable outlooks in terms of likewise non space market opportunities with institutions i.s. light aviation traffic management system / server on laptop SME dedicated to ground services and technologies from space
Sw and integrated systems for sea and land fleet monitoring. Evolves from likewise space sw and systems based on satellite imagery and positioning Line of non space business has certain share of overall turnover, which is mainly space ground data segment, user software and service systems (satellite image fusion and treatment, etc.) SME with largely prevailing turnover in space TO BE CONTINUED NEXT SLIDE
44
Pivot case Lines of business - software Notes
Navigation software unit for reconnaissance military UAV. Originates from software and integrated systems supply for onboard and ground satellite guidance systems Promising and growing line of business (domestic client within holding group) connected to the increasing production of the UAV. More sw for non space applications is produced for emergency multisensor site monitoring (environment, ground deformation, crisis) deriving from space competencies in positioning and imagery treatment software. Staff involved 15 Large entreprise with 25-30 turnover in space
Car sharing system software and server service supply for large corporate fleets. Originates from onboard (with hw units on aircraft) and ground competencies in satellite ATM systems, with addition of mapping route meterings, inertial positioning. Limited value of space (GPS positioning) in supply Small but growing line of business with possible extensions in the railway and light aviation fields. Dedicated staff of 5 SME with partial turnover in space (satellite ATM onboard and ground software, recently also observation satellite signal integrity verification)
Sw and integrated systems (in situ, onboard and ground) for fleet management, security and defence. Originates from expertise, skills, quality on ground and onboard satellite guidance and data treatment system. Minor positioning component included as well as mobile terminals and sensors Sizeable line of business involving staff of 6. Orders coming mainly from one group SME operating mainly for one group and oriented 50 to space productions for civil and military uses (satellite guidance and data treatment software systems)
Telemetry sw systems for F1 car racing federation approved. Comes with firmware and vehicle sensors. Connected to expertise, skills, organisation and technologies applied to space telemetry for separation systems, antenna deployment, etc. Small but steady line of business with 3 dedicated staff SME dedicated to ground and onboard telemetry systems (see i.e. Kourou). Space turnover is over 50
Sw and dashboard for invessel viewing system relative to a big physics new infrastructure. Derives from space competencies in ground separation systems (see Vega Kourou) with relative technologies and skills Extended lines of likewise non space business cover not neglectable share of overall turnover (almost 10) and include various airport services and aircraft supplies. Dedicated staff of 44 Large entreprise. 15 ca of turnover in space ground logistical support
45
  • As for the steps (B) measurement of the non
    space activities connected to public spending
    impact in space (ESA, ASI generated as by
    definitions in slide 18) the result is positive,
    as high as 52,4 on the said expenditure
  • It must be otherwise noticed that the space
    turnover of these firms reports only a very small
    share outside the public strategic orders, or
    16,2 of the latter, while the standards for
    Italy DV and Europe (see slide 18 and also
    consider the fact that public market for Europe
    includes non strategic expenditure) are
    respectively above 70 and almost 100,
    regardless of the size of firms
  • The overall multiplier of public strategic
    spending comes to 68,7 and therefore cannot be
    considered fully satisfactory. Consider
  • - it would be below average by european
    standards even if it were perfunctorily applied
    as within space sector only multiplier effect
  • - if applied correctly it entails a very
    limited effect on space business as if the panel
    firms were here mostly processing public
    strategic expenditure rather than pursuing new
    business in space

46
  • The table hereunder summarises the main figures
    regarding these aspects (task B)

Effects of public strategic spending (ESA, ASI)
on space and non space business (enlarged non
space production assimilated to pivot cases)
Pivot cases sub panel focus
Public strategic expenditure k - A Other space market B of B/A Extended non space Production connected to Pivot cases C of C/A Overall strategic exp. multiplier (BC) / A
135.812 22.103 16,2 71.205 52,4 68,7
Notes
N.B. Please notice that the standard deviation on the pivot sub-panel shows the following sizeable levels from relevant value strings (14 data) Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of other space business non space pivot connected 286 strong Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of non space pivot connected only 272 strong N.B. Please notice that the standard deviation on the pivot sub-panel shows the following sizeable levels from relevant value strings (14 data) Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of other space business non space pivot connected 286 strong Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of non space pivot connected only 272 strong N.B. Please notice that the standard deviation on the pivot sub-panel shows the following sizeable levels from relevant value strings (14 data) Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of other space business non space pivot connected 286 strong Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of non space pivot connected only 272 strong N.B. Please notice that the standard deviation on the pivot sub-panel shows the following sizeable levels from relevant value strings (14 data) Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of other space business non space pivot connected 286 strong Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of non space pivot connected only 272 strong N.B. Please notice that the standard deviation on the pivot sub-panel shows the following sizeable levels from relevant value strings (14 data) Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of other space business non space pivot connected 286 strong Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of non space pivot connected only 272 strong N.B. Please notice that the standard deviation on the pivot sub-panel shows the following sizeable levels from relevant value strings (14 data) Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of other space business non space pivot connected 286 strong Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of non space pivot connected only 272 strong
Comparative standards Italy Europe 70 ca 100 ca Unavailable Unavailable
47
  • As for the ancillary indicators (C) emerging for
    this specific sub panel focus, they do not
    differentiate much from the sub panel averages in
    terms of production, while employment trends are
    definitely weaker
  • What seem instead positive are the trends of RD
    activity and the level of productivity, the
    highest among the various sub panel focuses. See
    the synoptical table hereunder

Subpanel focuses indexes synopsis
Subpanel focus pivot Subpanel focus sw Subpanel focus hyb Sub panel Main panel Notes
Variation of Value of space production from 2010 1 0,96 1,03 0,99 1,04 Average values of 2011/10 and 2012/2011
Variation of RD activities 1,04 0,97 0,99 0,96 0,89 See above
Variation of Workforce 0,99 1,03 1,01 1,02 1,02 See above
Level of productivity 209 175,6 176 198 269 3 yearly current average of turnover / workforce. In k
  • N.B. Please note that the standard deviation on
    the pivot sub-panel shows the following sizeable
    values from relevant value strings
  • Multiplier return from public strategic
    expenditure in terms of other space business
    non space pivot connected 286 strong
  • Multiplier return from public strategic
    expenditure in terms of non space pivot
    connected only 272 strong
  • Productivity level 122 rather high

48
  • In conclusion, the responsive firms that
    participate in the subpanel focus based on pivot
    cases of non space production seem to derive a
    not neglectable non space production and market
    from their space activities, almost entirely
    originated by public strategic expenditure of the
    Agencies
  • This subpanel focus also shows interesting rates
    of innovation propension and productivity
  • Yet, all this seems to take place at high costs
    in terms of public strategic expenditure (their
    main an captive space turnover) and measures
    should be taken to amplify the multilpliers
    effects
  • To pursue the above goal, this model survey could
    be applied to a wider range of pivot areas and
    a higher number of firms, to make it more
    meaningful and maybe obtain more positive
    feedbacks. The survey should also be extended,
    with ad hoc parameters, to investigate the area
    of Research Institutions and their often
    unexploited innovation potential
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