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FUTURE ISSUES

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Title: FUTURE ISSUES


1
FUTURE ISSUES CHALLENGES IN HRM
  • STEPHEN TAYLOR
  • SENIOR LECTURER, UNIVERSITY OF EXETER BUSINESS
    SCHOOL
  • CHIEF EXAMINER, CIPD

2
  • Prediction is difficult. Especially when the
    predictions relate to the future
  • Mark Twain
  • Among all forms of mistake, prophesy is the
    most gratuitous
  • George Eliot

3
MAJOR LONG TERM TRENDS
  • Intensified competition
  • Changes in patterns of demand for / supply of
    skills
  • Fast evolving changing technologies
  • Individualism trade union decline
  • Increased affluence inequality
  • Increased ethical awareness
  • Increased regulation
  • Demographic change

4
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY
  • Major causes
  • GLOBALISATION eg steel cars
  • TECHNOLOGY eg TV retailing
  • GOVERNMENT ACTION eg airlines
  • FINANCIALISATION eg banking
  • CONSUMER INFORMATION eg insurance
  • CONSUMER CHOOSINESS eg hotels restaurants

5
IMPLICATIONS FOR HRM
  • Volatility / unpredictability
  • Capacity for flexibility
  • Responsive to change
  • Limited resources / cost control
  • HR function has to demonstrate its value
  • Increased requirement to recruit, retain, engage
    and motivate good quality people

6
Demand for labour
  • EMPLOYED ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE
  • 1971 24.6 million 25.6 million
  • 1976 24.8 million 26.1 million
  • 1981 24.7 million 27.0 million
  • 1986 24.7 million 27.8 million
  • 1991 26.7 million 28.9 million
  • 1996 26.0 million 28.4 million
  • 2001 27.6 million 29.1 million
  • 2006 28.7 million 30.3 million
  • 2011 29.1 million 30.8 million

7
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8
Demand for labour
  • Occupation in 1951 in 1999
  •  
  • Higher professionals 1.9 6.4
  •  
  • Lower professionals 4.7 14.9
  •  
  • Employers proprietors 5.0 3.4
  •  
  • Managers administrators 5.5 15.7
  •  
  • Clerks 10.7 14.9
  •  
  • Foremen, supervisors inspectors 2.6 3.1
  •  
  • Skilled manual 24.9 12.7
  •  
  • Semi-skilled manual 31.5 23.0
  • Unskilled manual 13.1 5.9

9
Changes in occupations 2000 - 2020 Occupation
2000 2010 2015 2020 Managers senior
officials 8.7 9.9 10.6 11.1 Professional
occupations 16.5 19.2 20.1 21.0 Associate
professional technical occupations 12.2 12.9
13.4 14.0 Administrative secretarial 14.0 1
2.1 11.2 10.3 Skilled trades 12.9 11.6 11.0 1
0.3 Caring, leisure other services 7.3 8.9 9.
1 9.5 Sales customer services 8.5 8.6 8.3 8.2
Process, plant machine operatives 8.0 6.4 5.9
5.4 Elementary occupations 11.8 10.4 10.4 10
.2
10
Leitch Report - 2006
  • By 2020 there will be 2.3 million more jobs
  • All growth will be focused on higher-skilled
    occupational groups
  • Lower skilled jobs will decline in number
  • 2 million new management jobs
  • 1 million new professional jobs
  • 40 of jobs will require a tertiary-level
    education

11
SKILLS AT WORK IN BRITAIN SURVEY (2012)
  • 1986 2006
  • Jobs requiring no qualifications on entry fell
    from 38 to 28 (a decrease of 26)
  • Jobs requiring a degree on entry rose from 10 to
    20 (an increase of 100)
  • 2006 2012
  • Jobs requiring no qualifications on entry fell
    from 28 to 23 (a decrease of 18)
  • Jobs requiring a degree on entry rose from 20 to
    26 (an increase of 30)
  • 2020 on target for 33 graduate employment and
    19
  • no -qualification jobs by 2020

12
Female participation
  • Proportion of UK workforce made up by women
  • 1952 30
  • 2012 46
  • Female economic activity rate
  • 1952 35
  • 2012 71
  • Male economic activity rate is 83

13
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15
Supply of labour
Total births Average per year 1945 -
1964 17.6 m 880,000 1965 - 1984 16.1
m 803,000 1985 2004 14.8 m 738,000
16
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17
Source Office for National Statistics (2013)
Table 1 Estimated and projected population of the United Kingdom and constituent countries, mid-2012 to mid-2037 Estimated and projected population of the United Kingdom and constituent countries, mid-2012 to mid-2037 Estimated and projected population of the United Kingdom and constituent countries, mid-2012 to mid-2037 Estimated and projected population of the United Kingdom and constituent countries, mid-2012 to mid-2037 Estimated and projected population of the United Kingdom and constituent countries, mid-2012 to mid-2037 Estimated and projected population of the United Kingdom and constituent countries, mid-2012 to mid-2037 Estimated and projected population of the United Kingdom and constituent countries, mid-2012 to mid-2037
              millions

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

United Kingdom United Kingdom 63.7 65.8 68.0 70.0 71.7 73.3
England 53.5 55.4 57.3 59.1 60.7 62.2
Wales 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3
Scotland 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8
Northern Ireland Northern Ireland 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
               
18
Supply of labour
  • Fertility Rates (UN figures 2008)
  • Macau 0.91 UK 1.82
  • Hong Kong 0.97 Thailand 1.85
  • South Korea 1.21 France 1.89
  • Ukraine 1.22 Iran 2.04
  • Poland 1.23 USA 2.05
  • Singapore 1.26
  • Japan 1.27
  • Greece 1.33 Europe 1.40
  • Russia 1.34 North America 1.99
  • Germany 1.36 Australasia 2.32
  • Italy 1.38 Asia 2.47
  • Spain 1.41 Latin America 2.55
  • Canada 1.53 Africa 4.97
  • China 1.73
  • Australia 1.79

19
Leitch Report
20
Leitch Report
  • 5 million people in the UK lack level 1 literacy
    skills (16)
  • 15 million people lack level 1 numeracy skills
    (48)
  • 6.6 million lack basic numeracy skills (21)

21
SKILLS IMPROVEMENTS
  • 2006 -2012
  • The number of UK adults with degrees increased
    by 2.2 million
  • The proportion of graduates in graduate jobs
    increased from 69 to 74
  • The proportion of UK adults with no
    qualifications fell from 29 to 21

22
OECD SKILLS OUTLOOK 2013
  • 166,000 adults in 24 countries
  • Problem solving in technology-rich environments
    (UK is 9th and above average)
  • Literacy (UK is 14th and below average)
  • Numeracy (UK is 16th and below average)

23
OECD SKILLS OUTLOOK 2013
  • 16-24 year-olds
  • Problem solving (UK is 15th and below average)
  • Literacy (UK is 21st and well below average)
  • Numeracy (UK is 19th and well below average)
  • The UK is the only OECD country with 16-24 year
    olds who score less well on literacy than 55-65
    year olds

24
CONCLUSIONS
25
CONCLUSIONS
  • Key labour markets are likely to tighten
    considerably over the next ten to twenty years
  • Serious skills shortages are likely to develop
    and remain for some time
  • As far as HRM is concerned, this will push
    recruitment and retention issues back to the top
    of the organisational agenda

26
CONCLUSIONS
  • A Perfect Storm?
  • Key issues for HR managers over the coming two
    decades
  • 1) How do we recruit and retain the people we
    need in an increasingly resource-constrained
    environment?
  • 2) How do we maintain a capacity for flexibility
    while also maintaining high levels of motivation
    among the workforce?

27
FUTURE ISSUES AND CHALLENGES FOR HRM
  • STEPHEN TAYLOR
  • SENIOR LECTURER, UNIVERSITY OF EXETER BUSINESS
    SCHOOL
  • CHIEF EXAMINER, CIPD

28
Rebooting the Psychological ContractA2020Visio
n
  • Peter Monaghan
  • Acas Area Director, North West
  • 29th June 2015

29
A child of the 60s
30
Revivals
31
Today
32
Definition
  • ..the perception of the two parties, employer
    and employee, of what their mutual obligations
    are towards each other.
  • CIPD 2014

33
The psychological contractThe employee promises
to-
  • Work Hard
  • Uphold the company reputation
  • Maintain high levels of attendance and
    punctuality
  • Show loyalty to the organisation
  • Work extra hours when required
  • Develop new skills and update old ones
  • Be flexible, for example, by taking on a
    colleagues work
  • Be courteous to clients and colleagues
  • Be honest
  • Come up with new ideas

34
The psychological contractThe employer promises
to provide-
  • Pay commensurate with performance
  • Opportunities for training and development
  • Opportunities for promotion
  • Recognition for innovation or new ideas
  • Feedback on performance
  • Interesting tasks
  • An attractive benefits package
  • Respectful treatment
  • Reasonable job security
  • A pleasant and safe working environment

35
World of work stuff
  • UK Plc productivity low
  • Engagement levels need improvement
  • Trust levels need improvement
  • Pay levels too low
  • A trend towards individualisation and away from
    collectivism
  • A long trend of scientific, command and control,
    management practices
  • Diminished importance of employee relations
  • Skills shortages and/or lack of investment in
    training
  • Levels of happiness / fairness / balance?

36
Young Workers
  • Twice as likely to be on Zero Hours contracts
  • More likely to be working in fragmented
    workplaces
  • 25 have a degree, also joining the labour market
    later.
  • Low pay
  • Unable to afford property, buy or rent
  • Living with parents
  • Difficult to get an employed job
  • Lack of a career
  • Importance of career capital and social
    networking
  • Aspirational impact

37
Older workers
  • Working longer
  • Work plus pension flexibility required
  • No default retirement age
  • HWWB issues
  • Performance management issues
  • Culturally stuck?
  • Labour market reentry training issues

38
The middle
  • Likely to need to care for elderly relatives so
    will need flexibility
  • Childcare, both parents working and/or needing to
    work
  • Maternity/Paternity a non gender specific issue?
  • Recently redundant
  • Reentry to labour market possibly as Self
    Employed via Consultancy
  • Career stuck
  • End of work further away
  • Morale issues

39
The rebooted psychological contract?
  • The employee promises-
  • To work productively (inc to turn up!)
  • To reciprocate flexibility afforded to them
  • To reciprocate loyalty shown to them
  • To provide great customer service
  • To come up with new ideas
  • To collaborate positively with colleagues
  • To commit to their own learning and development
  • Be honest
  • Not to do daft things on Social Media channels

40
The rebooted psychological contract?
  • The employer promises to-
  • Provide a pleasant, interesting (and safe) place
    to work
  • Listen and act upon employee ideas and feedback
  • (eg Voice Listening Action Engagement)
  • Provide opportunities for employees to
    collaborate with each other, particularly on an
    autonomous basis
  • Provide opportunities for flexible working where
    possible
  • Provide the space and support necessary for the
    employee to learn and develop
  • Recognise great work (say thanks at least!)
  • Honestly provide their best in terms of their
    pay and job security offer

41
Thoughts and further reading
  • Acas call to arms on Productivity and People
    Management, see our Website.
  • Google When the French clock off at 6pm, they
    really mean it.
  • Google Report from the Commission on Management
    and Leadership short term, myopic
  • Get this stuff on the strategic business
    agenda, it impacts on the bottom line.
  • Google Why we hate work New York Times
  • Look at Netflix or Zappos
  • Key words Variety, flexibility, collaboration,
    innovation, autonomy, sense of purpose,
    challenging, new, freshless command and control.
  • What does an employer of choice look like?

42
Connect and Contact
  • Contact
  • 0161 833 8559
  • 07979 704498
  • pmonaghan_at_acas.org.uk
  • Helpline 0300 123 1100
  • Customer Service Team 0300 123 1150
  • Connect on LinkedIn
  • Peter Monaghan
  • Acas Employment Relations and Advice discussion
    group
  • Follow us onTwitter
  • _at_monaghanpj
  • _at_acasorguk
  • _at_Acas_NW

43
2020 Vision the Future of People Management
  • What do we know about wellbeing?
  • Professor Carol Atkinson

MMU Business School, Centre for People and
Performance
44
What is wellbeing?
Many HW initiatives treat the symptoms not the
cause
MMU Business School, Centre for People and
Performance
45
  • What HR professionals need to decide is whether
    health and wellbeing is about providing lettuce
    for lunch or about far less obvious but
    potentially more effective things, says David
    Batman, group medical officer, Nestlé UK. Simply
    giving staff more autonomy in their jobs will
    reduce the level of stress they suffer. This
    impacts blood pressure and heart conditions. To
    me, just giving people the opportunity to do
    their job will have a far more significant impact
    on the health of a companys employees than
    persuading them to give up smoking and eating
    more healthily in the staff canteen.
  • Old-style wellbeing is like walking downstream
    of a river, rescuing employees who are flailing
    around in the water, needing saving, says
    Margaret Samuel, chief medical officer at EDF
    Energy. What we need to do is turn around and
    walk upstream to find out why so many of these
    employees are ending up in the water in the first
    place we need to find the source of the
    emergency.

MMU Business School, Centre for People and
Performance
Torrington et al. (2014)
46
A more holistic understanding of wellbeing
  • Happiness, relationships and health (Van de
    Voorde et al., 2012)
  • Creating an environment to promote a state of
    contentment which allows an employee to flourish
    and achieve their full potential for the benefit
    of themselves and their organization (CIPD, 2007
    4)
  • Altruistic or business case? HRM, wellbeing and
    performance links (Peccei et al., 2012)

MMU Business School, Centre for People and
Performance
47
Subjective wellbeing happiness
  • CEO raises minimum wage to 70k after reading
    study on workplace happiness emotional
    well-being rises with income, but only to a
    point. And that point turns out to be about
    75,000 a year. (see also Kahneman and Deighton,
    2010)
  • So pay only takes us so far
  • Job design is also important
  • And flexible working (Atkinson and Hall, 2011)

MMU Business School, Centre for People and
Performance
48
Relationships authenticity
  • Authenticity being true to yourself
  • Are you yourself at work?
  • Are you different at work and home?
  • How comfortable are you about this?
  • Being true to yourself is (probably) more
    important than behaving differently across roles

MMU Business School, Centre for People and
Performance
49
Impact of authenticity
  • Being more authentic is related to greater
    well-being and higher levels of engagement
  • Greater well-being is related to higher levels of
    engagement
  • Personality plays a role, but most of the
    relationships hold for people with different
    personalities

Dr Anna Sutton, Dr Ben Lupton, Prof Carol Atkinson
MMU Business School, Centre for People and
Performance
50
Implications for organisations
  • What can organisations do to increase the
    feelings of authenticity amongst their employees?
  • Empowerment, autonomy
  • Values-based recruitment, management
  • Important role of supporting effective
    relationships

MMU Business School, Centre for People and
Performance
51
Health ageing workforce
  • Women battling menopause 'are forced out of
    jobsmenopause is taboo some women struggling
    with the symptoms are perceived to be
    under-performing (Macrae, 2015)
  • Individual but for some a substantial health
    impact surrounded by stigma and taboo
  • Informal support (particularly in gendered
    professions/work places) but no formal space for
    discussion or seeking support

MMU Business School, Centre for People and
Performance
Profs Carol Atkinson, Jackie Ford, Nancy Harding
52
Implications for organisations
  • Retention (and recruitment) of skilled workers
  • Mitigation of potential impact on performance
  • Line manager training have to be brave to
    call for training on how to manage women going
    through the menopause because nobody ever wants
    to talk about that (Ros Altmann)
  • In common with many other issues arising from
    demographic change, little awareness or planning

MMU Business School, Centre for People and
Performance
53
Sources
  • Atkinson, C., Ford, J. and Harding, N.
    (forthcoming) The aspirations and expectations of
    a late-career professional woman, Work,
    Employment and Society
  • Atkinson, C and Hall, L. (2011) Flexible Working
    and Happiness in the NHS, Employee Relations
    Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 88-105
  • http//www.executive-grapevine.com/board-leadershi
    p/article/2015-04-15-ceo-raises-minimum-wage-to-70
    k-after-reading-workplace-happiness-study?utm_sour
    ceeshotutm_mediumemailutm_campaignBL20-2015
    /04/2015
  • Kahneman, D. and Deaton, A. (2010) High income
    improves evaluation of life but not
  • emotional well-being http//www.pnas.org/content/1
    07/38/16489.full
  • Macrae, F. (2015) http//www.dailymail.co.uk/news/
    article-2974904/Women-battling-menopause-forced-jo
    bs-Campaigner-says-companies-ignoring-impact-emplo
    yees.html
  • Peccei, R., De Voorde, K. Van Veldhoven, M.
    2012. HRM, Well-being and Performance. In
    Paauwe, J., Guest, D. Wright, P. (eds.) HRM and
    Performance. Chichester Wiley.
  • Torrington, D., Hall, L., Taylor, S. and
    Atkinson, C. (2014) HRM, 9th Ed. Pearson
  • Van De Voorde, K., Paauwe, J. Van Veldhoven, M.
    2012. Employee Wellbeing and the
    HRM-Organizational Performance Relationship a
    Review of Quantitative Studies. International
    Journal of Management Reviews, 14, 391-407.

MMU Business School, Centre for People and
Performance
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