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Climate%20Change

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Title: Climate%20Change


1
Climate Change
Michael Gluck, Regional Analyst OMNR
2
Presentation Outline
  • The Problem
  • The Reaction
  • Climate Change Convention
  • Kyoto Protocol
  • Canada
  • Ontario
  • MNR

3
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4
The Greenhouse
  • Increased "greenhouse gases" are carbon dioxide
    (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O)
  • naturally occurring gases make up less than one
    tenth of one per cent of the total atmosphere
  • acts like a blanket around the earth

5
The Problem
6
A Unique Problem
  • Climate Change is
  • global long-term
  • complex interactions
  • climate
  • environment
  • economic
  • political
  • institutional
  • social
  • technological

7
The Global Carbon Cycle
8
Impacts?
  • Increases floods droughts
  • Irreversible damage to human natural systems
  • hydrological
  • agriculture food security
  • terrestrial, aquatic marine ecosystems
  • human health communities
  • insurance financial institutions

9
So What?
  • Wind and rainfall patterns may change.
  • Sea-levels may rise and threaten islands and
    low-lying coastal areas
  • Climate and agricultural zones may shift towards
    the poles
  • More famines and other catastrophes
  • Environmental Refugees

10
Changes in Surface Run-Off from 1961-1990 to 2050
11
CAN WE HANDLE IT?
  • Scientists see a real risk that the climate will
    change rapidly and dramatically over the coming
    decades and centuries.
  • Likely to be a "global warming" of 1.5 to 4.5 C
    over the next 100 years
  • Greatest Challenge facing the world at the
    beginning of the century

12
Problems?
  • If the consequences of a problem are uncertain,
    do you ignore the problem or do you do something
    about it anyway?
  • Response is expensive, complicated politcal
  • Disagreement if problem exists

13
Not Another Problem!!
  • War, famine, AIDS, the ozone "hole", acid rain,
    loss of ecosystems and species ...
  • See the problem as an opportunity
  • new technologies infrastructure
  • more efficient production
  • become healthier
  • The atmosphere is a shared resource, part of the
    "global commons".

14
Its Not Fair
  • rich and poor nations of the world
  • equality a cornerstone of sustainability

15
The Convention (1992) United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
  • Recognises that there is a problem
  • negotiated and signed by 165 states in a little
    over two years
  • roles for developed developing countries
  • stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the
    atmosphere
  • Sustainable development

16
Living the good life
  • Somehow, mankind must learn how to alleviate
    poverty for huge and growing numbers of people
    without destroying the natural environment
  • Developing and sharing environmentally sound
    technologies and know-how
  • What is sustainable development?

17
The Kyoto Protocol (1997)
  • Strengthens the UNFCCC
  • 6 reduction of 1990 levels for developed
    countries by 2008-2012
  • roles for developed developing countries
  • And at the last minute
  • forests?

18
Achievement
  • Reductions should be achieved within a time-frame
    sufficient to allow
  • ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change
  • to ensure that food production is not threatened
    and,
  • to enable economic development to proceed in a
    sustainable manner.

19
Kyoto Mechanisms
  • Clean Development Mechanisms
  • sustainable development
  • Joint Implementation
  • of energy efficient technologies
  • Emissions Trading
  • between developed countries

20
MITIGATION
  • Forests agriculture offer significant carbon
    mitigation potential
  • conservation of existing C pools
  • sequestration by increasing C pools
  • product substitution
  • There is no single path!

21
Soil Trees?
22
More Carbon in Forests?
  • Management practices that could reduce or reverse
    the current emissions of carbon from forests
    include
  • halt deforestation
  • expand the area of forests,
  • maintain or increase C stocks in existing forests
  • more efficient harvest greater use of wood in
    long-lasting products
  • substitute wood fuels for fossil fuels

23
What good is the sink?
  • Transfer carbon between the atmosphere and the
    biosphere as an offset to industrial greenhouse
    gas emission reduction commitments
  • Uncertainty of sink potential
  • Compliance
  • Longevity
  • Seen as an easy way out for Canada, US Japan

24
Canada the World
  • Worst energy efficiency in developed world
  • Lack of political willingness to change
  • Uninformed public
  • A leader??

25
Canada
  • 4th largest emitters per capita in the world
  • Why?
  • Inefficient transportation
  • Consumption
  • Poor infrastructure
  • Subsidized gasoline

26
Canadas Emissions
14 increase since 1990
Source National Climate Change Process Analysis
Modelling Group
27
People
  • 31 of Canada's GHG emissions produced by
    individuals and families,
  • 45 from transportation
  • 33 from space heating
  • 7 from water heating
  • 9 from appliances and lighting
  • 6 from waste

28
HOW MUCH WILL CHANGE COST?
  • Social learning innovation
  • institutional change
  • No-regret policies
  • phase out market imperfections
  • subsidies green accounting
  • achieve ancillary benefits
  • reduce pollutants improve health
  • provide double dividend
  • green taxes

29
Canadas National Climate Change Process
  • 1990 commitment to stabilize emissions
  • 1993-94 National Consultation
  • partially implemented weak measures
  • 2000 Action Plan
  • promoting fuel effiency
  • possible underground storage of carbon dioxide
  • reduce greenhouse gas emissions
  • enhance carbon sinks in agriculture and forestry.

30
Canadas National Climate Change Process
  • Nationally
  • Voluntary Challenge and Registry
  • Internationally
  • Clean Development Mechanisms (with CANDU
    reactors)
  • Joint Implementation using Canadian Technology
  • Emissions Trading a cornerstone of reductions
    strategy

31
Ontario
  • Disagreement with Ottawa over Climate Change
    Action
  • Smog kills 1,900 people per year in Ontario.
  • ECO says we must do more

32
Ontarios Strategy
  • Clean air actions
  • Clean drive program
  • Clean energy
  • hydroelectric energy
  • Enforcement
  • Open electricity markets
  • Focus on peoples responsibility
  • Poor urban planning
  • 100 cuts to public transportation
  • Conflicting government priorities
  • Focus on voluntary measures

33
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34
MNR Action Plan
  • Communications
  • Tree Planting for Private Lands
  • Improving Carbon Sinks in Forest Ecosystems
  • Protect our Forest Ecosystems
  • Balancing the Carbon Books
  • Co-generation Potential
  • Wetland Conservation
  • Fisheries Research

35
Afforestation Opportunities
  • Planting trees on marginal agricultural land may
    provide te best bet for carbon sequestration

36
What could happen?
Species Loss
Sinks
Uncertainty
Water Quality
Warmer
Sources
Confused Ecosystems
37
What happened in COP-6?
  • Canada/US Japan vs. Europe
  • inclusion of sinks
  • risky clean development mechanisms
  • emission increases
  • developing world left out
  • COP 6 part II next year

38
Last words...
  • Climate change wont go away
  • Partial inclusion of biosphere NOT a solution
  • Learn more about Canadas Policies
  • A TEST OF SOCIETYS COMMITMENT TO SUSTAINABILITY

39
Ways Means for Mitigation
40
Suggestions
  • Education
  • Financial Incentives - Motivation Funds
  • Ecological tax reform
  • Better Buildings
  • Green Transportation Plans
  • Renewable Energy Program
  • Better landfills

41
Thanks
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