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## WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management

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### WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management Lecture-3: Module- 3 Climate Change Modeling -GCM Akm Saiful Islam Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management

1
WFM 6311 Climate Change Risk Management
Lecture-3 Module- 3 Climate Change Modeling -gtGCM
• Akm Saiful Islam

Institute of Water and Flood Management
(IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineering and
Technology (BUET)
December, 2012
2
Module-3
• Prediction of climate change
• Global and regional climate change predictions
• Dynamic and static downscaling for impact study.
• Uncertainty of predictions

3
Climate Change Modeling
4
Climate Models
• Climate models are computer-based simulations
that use mathematical formulas to re-create the
chemical and physical processes that drive
Earths climate. To run a model, scientists
divide the planet into a 3-dimensional grid,
apply the basic equations, and evaluate the
results.
• Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat
surface hydrology within each grid and evaluate
interactions with neighboring points. Climate
models use quantitative methods to simulate the
interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land
surface, and ice.

5
General Circulation Model (GCM)
• General Circulation Models (GCMs) are a class of
computer-driven models for weather forecasting,
understanding climate and projecting climate
change, where they are commonly called Global
Climate Models.
• Three dimensional GCM's discretise the equations
for fluid motion and energy transfer and
integrate these forward in time. They also
contain parameterizations for processes - such as
convection - that occur on scales too small to be
resolved directly.
• Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model the atmosphere and
impose sea surface temperatures. Coupled
EdGCM, GFDL CM2.X, ARPEGE-Climate) combine the
two models.

6
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7
GCM typical horizontal resolution of between 250
and 600 km, 10 to 20 vertical layers in the
atmosphere and sometimes as many as 30 layers in
the oceans.
8
Heart of Climate Model
Conservation of momentum
Conservation of mass
Conservation of energy
9
Complexity of GCM
10
Hardware Behind the Climate Model
• Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

11
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
• The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
was a report prepared by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Third
Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001, on future
emission scenarios to be used for driving global
circulation models to develop climate change
scenarios.
• It was used to replace the IS92 scenarios used
for the IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995.
The SRES Scenarios were also used for the Fourth
Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007.

12
http//www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_sr/?sr
c/climate/ipcc/emission/
13
SERS Emission Scenarios
• A1 - a future world of very rapid economic
growth, global population that peaks in
mid-century and declines thereafter, and the
rapid introduction of new and more efficient
technologies. Three sub groups fossil intensive
(A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a
balance across all sources (A1B).
• A2 - A very heterogeneous world. The underlying
theme is that of strengthening regional cultural
identities, with an emphasis on family values and
local traditions, high population growth, and
less concern for rapid economic development.
• B1 - a convergent world with the same global
population, that peaks in mid-century and
declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline.
• B2 - a world in which the emphasis is on local
solutions to economic, social and environmental
sustainability.

14
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15
A1
• The A1 scenarios are of a more integrated world.
The A1 family of scenarios is characterized by
• Rapid economic growth.
• A global population that reaches 9 billion in
• The quick spread of new and efficient
technologies.
• A convergent world - income and way of life
converge between regions. Extensive social and
cultural interactions worldwide.
• There are subsets to the A1 family based on their
technological emphasis
• A1FI - An emphasis on fossil-fuels.
• A1B - A balanced emphasis on all energy sources.
• A1T - Emphasis on non-fossil energy sources.

16
A2
• The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. The
A2 family of scenarios is characterized by
• A world of independently operating, self-reliant
nations.
• Continuously increasing population.
• Regionally oriented economic development.
• Slower and more fragmented technological changes
and improvements to per capita income.

17
B1
• The B1 scenarios are of a world more integrated,
and more ecologically friendly. The B1 scenarios
are characterized by
• Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid
changes towards a service and information
economy.
• Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then
declining as in A1.
• Reductions in material intensity and the
introduction of clean and resource efficient
technologies.
• An emphasis on global solutions to economic,
social and environmental stability.

18
B2
• The B2 scenarios are of a world more divided, but
more ecologically friendly. The B2 scenarios are
characterized by
• Continuously increasing population, but at a
slower rate than in A2.
• Emphasis on local rather than global solutions to
economic, social and environmental stability.
• Intermediate levels of economic development.
• Less rapid and more fragmented technological
change than in A1 and B1

19
SRES A1B Scenarios
• Special Report on Emissions Scenarios  (SRES) A1B
scenario assumes a balanced mix of technologies
and supply sources, with technology improvements
and resource assumptions such that no single
source of energy is overly dominant.
• The implications of these alternative development
paths for future GHG emissions are challenging
the emissions vary from the carbon-intensive to
decarbonization paths by at least as much as the
variation of all the other driving forces across
the other SRES scenarios.

20
GCM output described in the 2007 IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report (SRES scenarios), multilayer
mean
Models Scenarios Variables
BCCCM1BCCRBCM2CCCMACGCM3_1-T47CCCMACGCM3_1-T63CNRMCM3CONSECHO-GCSIROMK3GFDLCM2GFDLCM2_1INMCM3IPSLCM4LASGFGOALS-G1_0MPIMECHAM5MRICGCM2_3_2NASAGISS-AOMNASAGISS-EHNASAGISS-ERNCARCCSM3NCARPCMNIESMIROC3_2-HINIESMIROC3_2-MEDUKMOHADCM3UKMOHADGEM1 1PTO2X1PTO4X20C3MCOMMITPICTLSRA1BSRA2SRB1 specific humidity precipitation flux air pressure at sea level net upward shortwave flux in air air temperature air temperature daily max air temperature daily min eastward wind northward wind
21
List of GCM Page 1
• BCC-CM1
• AgencyBeijing Climate Center, National Climate
No.46, S.Road, Zhongguancun Str., Beijing 100081,
China
• BCCR
• Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR),
Univ. of Bergen, Norway
• CGCM3
• Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and
Analysis (CCCma)
• CNRM-CM3
• Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques,
Meteo France, France

22
List of GCM Page 2
• CONS-ECHO-G
• Meteorological Institute of the University of
Bonn (Germany), Institute of KMA (Korea), and
Model and Data Group.
• CSIRO, Australia
• INMCM3.0
• Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian
• GFDL
• Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA
• NASA-GISS-AOM
• NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
(NASA/GISS), USA

23
List of GCM Page 3
• MRI-CGCM2_3_2
• Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
Meteorological Agency, Japan
• NCAR-PCM
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR),
NASA, and NOAA
• Model NIES-MIROC3_2-MED
• CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan
• Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
Research, Met Office, United Kingdom

24
Arctic Sea Ice Prediction using community climate
system model
Arctic Sea Ice in 2040
Arctic Sea Ice in 2000
25
Thank about what will happen to Artic Polar Bears
who lives in Artic
26
Antarctic Penguins
27
Prediction of Global Warming
• Figure shows the distribution of warming during
the late 21st century predicted by the HadCM3
climate model. The average warming predicted by
this model is 3.0 C.

28
Prediction of Temperature increase
29
Prediction of Sea level rise