Climate%20Working%20Group%20Briefing

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NOAA CLIMATE Understanding climate variability
and change to enhance societys ability to plan
and respond
Climate Working Group Briefing Wednesday 29
March 2006 NOAA Climate Program Office
Chet Koblinsky Director, NOAA Climate Program
Office
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Outline

• Overview of Meeting and Agenda
• Response to March 2005 mtg recommendations
• NOAA Climate program overview
• Congressional and EOP update
• Budget Discussion
• FY05 Highlights
• FY06 Enacted
• FY07 Request
• FY08 Priorities
• FY09 Directions
• NOAA/NASA Research and Operations Transition
• CCSP Update
• NOAA Climate in the community
• Climate Working Group Issues
• 2006 Meeting schedule
• Membership

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Meeting purpose and Agenda

• Purpose Program review and priorities
• Agenda - Wednesday
• 730-800 Continental Breakfast
• 800-10 00 Executive Session (Closed)
• 1000-1030 Break
• 1030-1045 Welcome and Introductions Mark
  Abbott, Otis Brown
• 1045-1200 Overview Chet Koblinsky
• 1200-100 Lunch Carl Burleson, FAA
• Climate Program Status and Review
• 100-300 Observations and Analysis Program
  Tom Karl, lead
• 300-330 Break
• 330-530 Observations and Analysis Program
  (continued)
• 530 Adjourn
• CWG Dinner with Director

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Meeting Agenda (cont.)

• Purpose Program review and priorities
• Agenda - Thursday
• 730-800 Continental Breakfast
• 800- 1000 Climate Forcing Program A.R.
  Ravishankara, lead
• 1000-1030 Break
• 1030-1130 Climate Forcing Program (continued)
• 1130-1230 Climate Predictions and Projections
  Ants Leetmaa, lead
• 1230-130 Lunch
• 130-330 Climate Predictions and Projections
  (continued)330-400 Break
• 400-500 Climate and Ecosystems Kenric Osgood,
  lead 500 Adjourn
• 700 Reception for retiring NOAA Dep. Admin.
  James R. Mahoney
• National Press Club

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Meeting Agenda (cont.)

• Purpose Program review and priorities
• Agenda - Friday
• 730-800 Continental Breakfast
• 800-1000 Regional Decision Support Jim Laver,
  lead
• 1000-1030 Break
• 1030-1130 Regional Decision Support
  (continued)
• Additional Topics and Wrap-up
• 1130-1200 Summary Chet Koblinsky
• 1200-200 Working Lunch Executive Session
  (Closed)
• 200 Adjourn

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Response to March 2005 CWG Recommendations
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Response to Recommendations

• A relevant question was whether or not there
  would be changes at OMB in response to changes in
  Congress? No.
• Those areas that are still in need of further
  attention include
• Decision support water resource and major
  ecosystem restoration. Not a lot of progress,
  California RISA activity is still the main link
  via its CalFed work. Decision support research
  feedback to guide NOAA RD decisions. Will be
  revisited in at Summer Retreat.
• Atmospheric composition Lack of connectivity
  between this element and modeling strategy across
  the whole of the program. Still remains an area
  of concern. Need to evaluate this Session
• NACP Lack of integration in the observing and
  analysis plans remains a concern. Need to
  evaluate this Session

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Response to Recommendations

• The discussion that followed Koblinskys
  presentation focused on the overall strategy for
  the climate program office in the context of the
  overall vision vis a vis implementation.
• The overall strategy for promoting new
  priorities at the expense of established
  successful programs was questioned.
• Is the present approach undermining the base?
  
• This all depends on whether or not the future
  requested increases are actually realized.
• Recent history and the present Federal deficit
  would suggest that the requested increases will
  be hard to come by and that more offsets may be
  anticipated.
• If this comes to pass, the strategy for new
  initiatives needs much more careful attention.
• Otherwise, the implications of this would be
  that growth in decision support would come from
  predictions and projections.
• This led to a discussion as to whether or not
  the way to increase the budget is via better
  links to decision support and better links to
  constituents.

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Climate Program Overview
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NOAA Goals

• Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal
  and ocean resources through an ecosystem approach
  to management
• Understand climate variability and change to
  enhance societys ability to plan and respond
• Serve societys needs for weather and water
  information
• Support the nations commerce with information
  for safe, efficient, and environmentally sound
  transportation
• Provide critical support for NOAAs mission

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NOAA Climate Goal Understand Climate
Variability and Change to Enhance Societys
Ability to Plan and Respond

• OUTCOMES
• A predictive understanding of the global climate
  system on time scales of weeks to decades with
  quantified uncertainties sufficient for making
  informed and reasoned decisions
• Climate-sensitive sectors and the
  climate-literate public effectively incorporating
  NOAAs climate products into their plans and
  decisions

Climate Forcing
Observations Analysis
Regional Decision Support
Predictions Projections
Climate Ecosystems
PROGRAMS
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Program Structure

• Program Charter
• Executive Summary
• Program Requirements
• Requirement Drivers
• Legislation
• Executive/NOAA Directives
• International agreements)
• Mission Requirements
• Links to NOAA Strategic Plan
• Goal outcomes
• Goal performance objectives
• Goal strategies
• Program Outcomes
• Program Roles and Responsibilities
• Participating Line Office, staff office and
  council responsibilities
• External Agency/Organization Responsibilities
  (International Partners)
• End User or Beneficiaries of the Program

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Climate Goal
Directives driving the course and priorities of
the NOAA Climate Goal
INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS US EXECUTIVE BRANCH US LEGISLATION INTERAGENCY AGREEMENTS
Bi-lateral agreements Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Montreal Protocol WMO Global Atmospheric Watch UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan (CCSP) 2003 Strategic Plan for the US Integrated Earth Observing System US Ocean Action Plan US Global Change Research Act Magnuson-Stevens Fisheries Act Weather Service Organic Act Coastal Zone Management Act National Climate Program Act of 1978 Clean Air Act of 1990 Global Climate Protection Act Oceans Act 2000 PL (106-256) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) North American Carbon Plan (NACP) Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS)
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NOAA Climate Programs vs. NOAA Line Offices
OAR NESDIS NWS NMFS
Observations and Analysis Ocean observations, reanalysis, dataset improvements Climate Reference Network, Data Management, GCOS
Climate Forcing Greenhouse gas observing system, extramural carbon cycle research, aerosol and ozone process research
Climate Predictions and Projections Intraseasonal forecasting skill, decadal and long-term projections, extramural research on climate variability Seasonal climate outlooks
Climate and Ecosystems North Pacific Climate and Ecosystems
Regional Decision Support Decision Support Research, Transition to Applications Regional Climate Centers Operational Climate Services
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OMB PART

• NOAAs score Moderately effective
• Major findings The Program is relatively strong
  and has undertaken steps to improve program
  management and focus on results.
• NOAA Climate coordinates with other federal
  agencies through the Climate Change Science
  Program
• Deficiencies in the mgmt of NOAA labs activities
  as identified by the NOAA Research Review Team
• Need to better integrate performance into budget
  decisions
• Program has appropriate long-term goals and
  annual measures which demonstrate progress

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Congressional And EOP Update
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Commerce

• Secretary Carlos M. Guitierrez
• Deputy Secretary David A. Sampson
• UnderSecretary for Atmospheres and Oceans
  Conrad Lautenbacher
• Assistant Secretary for Atmospheres and Oceans
  James R. Mahoney (Ret. 3/31/06)
• Deputy UnderSecretary for Atmospheres and Oceans
  Jack Kelly
• AA for Research Richard Spinrad
• AA for Weather Service D.L. Johnson
• AA for Satellite and Data Information Service
  Greg Withee
• AA for Ocean Service Jack Dunnigan
• AA for Fisheries Bill Hogarth
• AA for Planning, Programming and Integration
  Mary Glackin

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OSTP
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OSTP

• DIRECTOR'S OFFICE
• John H. Marburger III, Director OSTP, Science
  Adviser to the President
• Sharon Hays, Chief of Staff
  
• Joan Rolf, Assistant to Director for
  International Affairs
• TECHNOLOGY DIVISION
• Richard Russell, Associate Director for
  Technology
• Stanley Sokul, Deputy Associate Director for
  Technology
• Kevin Hurst, Senior Policy Analyst (covers
  climate change technology)
• SCIENCE DIVISION
• Associate Director for Science - VACANT
• Diane Jones (primary Point of Contact for
  Science) - Deputy Associate Director for Science
• Teresa Fryberger (primary Point of Contact on
  climate) - Assistant Director, Environment
• Rob Dimeo - Assistant Director, Physical Sciences
• Mark Weiss - Assistant Director, Social and
  Behavioral Sciences
• Jon Morse - Senior Policy Analyst
• Kevin Geiss - Senior Policy Analyst
• (OSTP anticipates finding replacement in the next
  few months for David Halpern who covered climate
  and oceans, including GEOSS, for OSTP)

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OMBCommerce Branch Head Randy Lyons NOAA
Climate and CCSP Analyst Andrea Petro
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HR Science
Sen. Rep. Name State (Party District) Sen. Rep. Name State (Party District) Sen. Rep. Name State (Party District)
16 Jo Bonner, Alabama (R-1) 7 Roscoe G. Bartlett, Maryland (R-6) 3 Lamar S. Smith, Texas (R-21)
5 Dana Rohrabacher, California (R-46) 12 Wayne Gilchrest, Maryland (R-1) 22 Michael T. McCaul, Texas (R-10)
6 Ken Calvert, California (R-44) 8 Vernon J. Ehlers, Michigan (R-3 3 Eddie Bernice Johnson, Texas (D-30)
4 Lynn C. Woolsey, California (D-6) 21 Joe Schwarz, Michigan (R-7) 12 Sheila Jackson Lee, Texas (D-18)
8 Michael M. Honda, California (D-15) 9 Gil Gutknecht, Minnesota (R-1) 17 Al Green, Texas (D-9)
13 Brad Sherman, California (D-27) 13 W. Todd Akin, Missouri (R-2) 15 Jim Matheson, Utah (D-2)
16 Jim Costa, California (D-20) 9 Brad Miller, North Carolina (D-13 15 J. Randy Forbes, Virginia (R-4)
6 Mark Udall, Colorado (D-2) 1 Sherwood L. Boehlert, New York, Chairman (R-24) 19 Dave G. Reichert, Washington (R-8)
17 Tom Feeney, Florida (R-24) 10 Frank D. Lucas, Oklahoma (R-3) 14 Brian Baird, Washington (D-3)
11 Judy Biggert, Illinois (R-13 5 Darlene Hooley, Oregon (D-5)
14 Timothy V. Johnson, Illinois (R-15) 7 David Wu, Oregon (D-1)
2 Jerry F. Costello, Illinois (D-12) 4 Curt Weldon, Pennsylvania (R-7)
11 Daniel Lipinski, Illinois (D-3) 18 Bob Inglis, South Carolina (R-4)
20 Michael E. Sodrel, Indiana (R-9) 1 Bart Gordon, Tennessee (D-6)
19 Dennis Moore, Kansas (D-3) 10 Lincoln Davis, Tennessee (D-4)
18 Charlie Melancon, Louisiana (D-3) 2 Ralph M. Hall, Texas (R-4)
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HR Appropriations Committee
Jerry Lewis, CA-41 (R - Chairman) Anne Northup, KY-3 (R) David R. Obey, WI-7 (D - Ranking Democratic Member) Patrick J. Kennedy, RI-1 (D)
Ralph Regula, OH-16 (R) Robert Aderholt, AL-4 (R) John P. Murtha, PA-12 (D) James E. Clyburn, SC-6 (D)
Harold Rogers, KY-5 (R) Jo Ann Emerson, MO-8 (R) Norman D. Dicks, WA-6 (D) Maurice D. Hinchey, NY-22 (D)
Frank R. Wolf, VA-10 (R) Kay Granger, TX-12 (R) Martin Olav Sabo, MN-5 (D) Lucille Roybal-Allard, CA-34 (D)
Tom DeLay, TX-22 (R) John E. Peterson, PA-5 (R) Steny H. Hoyer, MD-5 (D) Sam Farr, CA-17 (D)
Jim Kolbe, AZ-8 (R) Virgil Goode, VA-5 (R) Alan B. Mollohan, WV-1 (D) Jesse L. Jackson, Jr., IL-2 (D)
James Walsh, NY-25 (R) John Doolittle, CA-4 (R) Marcy Kaptur, OH-9 (D) Carolyn C. Kilpatrick, MI-13 (D)
Charles H. Taylor, NC-11 (R) Ray LaHood, IL-18 (R) Peter J. Visclosky, IN-1 (D) Allen Boyd, FL-2 (D)
David L. Hobson, OH-7 (R) John Sweeney, NY-20 (R) Nita M. Lowey, NY-18 (D) Chaka Fattah, PA-2 (D)
Ernest J. Istook, Jr., OK-5 (R) Don Sherwood, PA-24 (R) Jose E. Serrano, NY-16 (D) Steven R. Rothman, NJ-9 (D)
Henry Bonilla, TX-23 (R) Dave Weldon, FL-15 (R) Rosa L. DeLauro, CT-3 (D) Sanford D. Bishop, Jr., GA-2 (D)
Joe Knollenberg, MI-9 (R) Michael K. Simpson, ID-2 (R) James P. Moran, VA-8 (D) Marion Berry, AR-1 (D)
Jack Kingston, GA-1 (R) John Abney Culberson, TX-7 (R) John W. Olver, MA-1 (D)
Rodney P. Frelinghuysen, NJ-11 (R) Mark Steven Kirk, IL-10 (R) Ed Pastor, AZ-4 (D)
Roger F. Wicker, MS-1 (R) Ander Crenshaw, FL-4 (R) David E. Price, NC-4 (D)
Todd Tiahrt, KS-4 (R) Dennis R. Rehberg, MT-At Large (R) Chet Edwards, TX-17 (D)
Zach Wamp, TN-3 (R) John Carter, TX-31 (R) Robert E. Cramer, Jr., AL-5 (D)
Tom Latham, IA-4 (R) Rodney Alexander, LA-5 (R)
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Senate Commerce
Seniority, Name State Party Seniority, Name State Party
1 Ted Stevens - Alaska, Chairman R 9 E. Benjamin Nelson - Nebraska D
10 Mark Pryor - Arkansas D 4 Byron L. Dorgan - North Dakota D
2 John McCain - Arizona R 10 John Sununu - New Hampshire R
5 Barbara Boxer - California D 8 Frank Lautenberg - New Jersey D
6 Bill Nelson - Florida D 8 John Ensign - Nevada R
1 Daniel K. Inouye - Hawaii, Ranking D 7 Gordon Smith - Oregon R
12 David Vitter - Louisiana R 11 Jim DeMint - South Carolina R
3 John F. Kerry - Massachussetts D 5 Kay Bailey Hutchison - Texas R
6 Olympia Snowe - Maine R 9 George Allen - Virginia R
4 Trent Lott - Mississippi R 7 Maria Cantwell - Washington D
3 Conrad Burns - Montana R 2 John D. Rockefeller IV - West Virginia D
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Senate Appropriations

Seniority, Name (Party - State) Seniority, Name (Party - State)
2 Ted STEVENS (R-Alaska) 7 Conrad BURNS (R-Montana)
8 Richard SHELBY (R-Alabama) 9 Byron DORGAN (D-North Dakota)
10 Dianne FEINSTEIN (D-California) 9 Judd GREGG (R-New Hampshire)
15 Wayne ALLARD (R-Colorado) 4 Pete DOMENICI (R-New Mexico)
2 Daniel INOUYE (D-Hawaii) 6 Harry REID (D-Nevada)
4 Tom HARKIN (D-Iowa) 13 Mike DeWINE (R-Ohio)
11 Larry CRAIG (R-Idaho) 3 Arlen SPECTER (R-Pennsylvania)
11 Richard DURBIN (D-Illinois) 12 Tim JOHNSON (D-South Dakota)
14 Sam BROWNBACK (R-Kansas) 12 Kay Bailey HUTCHISON (R-Texas)
6 Mitch McCONNELL (R-Kentucky) 10 Robert BENNETT (R-Utah)
13 Mary LANDRIEU (D-Louisiana) 3 Patrick LEAHY (D-Vermont)
5 Barbara MIKULSKI (D-Maryland) 8 Patty MURRAY (D-Washington)
5 Christopher BOND (R-Missouri) 7 Herb KOHL (D-Wisconsin)
1 Thad COCHRAN (R-Mississippi, Chairman) 1 Robert BYRD (D-West Virginia, Ranking)
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Active Legislation

• NOAA CLIMATE RELATED LEGISLATION UNDER
  CONSIDERATION OR PASSED (February 2006) (bill
  reference/title/sponsor/date of last action)
• HR 50 NOAA Organic Act (Ehlers), May 2005
• HR 1386 National Drought Preparedness Act of
  2005 (Hastings), March 2005 Establishes the
  National Drought Council to develop an action
  plan
• HR 1489 Coastal Ocean Observation System
  Integration Implementation Act (Gilchrest), May
  2005 establish a coastal ocean observation
  system
• HR 1584/S 361 Ocean and Coastal Observation Act
  (Weldon, Allen, Snowe), July 2005 The Committee
  on Ocean Policy shall establish and maintain an
  integrated coastal and ocean observing system.
  NOAA shall be the lead federal agency in
  maintaining and operating the system
• HR 2995/S 517 Weather Modification Research and
  Technology Transfer Authorization Act (M. Udall,
  Hutchinson), June 2005 Establishes in Commerce
  the Weather Modification Advisory and Research
  Board including representatives from the American
  Meteorological Society and American Society of
  Civil Engineers
• S 245 Abrupt Climate Change Research Act of 2005
  (Collins), February 2005 NOAA ordered to set up
  an abrupt climate change research program within
  OAR
• S 342 Climate Stewardship Act of 2005 (McCain),
  February 2005
• S 786 National Weather Services Duties Act
  (Santorum), November 2005 Prohibits the
  National Weather Service from providing a product
  or service (except for severe weather forecasts
  and warnings) that is or could be provided by the
  private sector
• S 1281 NASA Authorization Act of 2005
  (Hutchinson), SIGNED INTO LAW Section 306 of S
  1281 limits the NASA Administrators flexibility
  to transfer any NASA earth science mission or
  Earth observing system to NOAA until funds to
  support such a transfer are in the Presidents
  budget request for NOAA. It also specifies that
  Administrators of both agencies must approve such
  a transfer.
• S 1932 Work, Marriage, and Family Promotion
  Reconciliation Act of 2005 (Gregg), SIGNED INTO
  LAW The Report provides 156 million to
  provide for a modern all hazards alert and
  warning program to provide alerts in response to
  natural disasters, man-made accidents, and
  terrorist incidents. The Republican Policy
  Committee summary of the Conference Report said
  that the Commerce Department would administer the
  program.
• National Integrated Drought Information system
  (NIDIS) Authorization Act, not yet introduced

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Budget
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Where we are Now
Planning
Programming
Execution
Congress
FY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Annual Operating Plan
NOAA FY08 Budget Development
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FY05 Highlights

• Congress maintained a steady budget level for
  Climate and Global Change research
• Congress increased the Climate Observations
  Services budget by a net 5.4M over FY 2004
• Congress increased the CCRI Budget by 17.1M for
  ocean observations, carbon cycle, aerosols, and
  climate modeling efforts
• However, Congress decreased all other activities
  by 11.7M for NOAAs Climate Reference Network
  Network, Baseline Observations, and other climate
  research such as NWS climate services, RISA,
  Weather/Climate Research
• Climate Program redirected CCRI funding to
  maintain critical long-term monitoring
  capabilities.

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FY06 Enacted

• Congress maintained a steady budget level for
  Climate and Global Change research and a small
  increase for ARGO
• This core capability allows for the infusion of
  cutting edge
• climate and global change research from
  academic and
• other renowned scientific institutions into
  NOAA.
• After setting aside funding for Climate and
  Global Change research and ARGO, the remaining
  funds are 14.0M below the FY 2005 appropriation.
• This reduction deeply undercuts the gains made
  from the
• Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI)
  started in FY
• 2003.
• Congress consolidated budget lines, allowing for
  more
• flexibility in determining funding
  allocations for priority areas.

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SUMMARY FY 2004 - FY 2006 ENACTED CLIMATE BUDGET
BUDGET CATEGORY Enacted Budget Enacted Budget Enacted Budget Difference
  FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 2006-2004
NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE 1,433 1,478 1,478 45
NOAA Research 171,210 173,828 166,098 -5,112
Climate and Global Change 69,659 67,517 67,490 -2,169
Climate Observations and Services 25,393 13,707 12,419 -12,974
Climate Change Research Initiative 22,356 39,427 27,524 5,168
Laboratories and Joint Institutes 47,246 42,860 42,842 -4,404
Arctic Research (less earmarks) 3,637 2,933 2,987 -650
Earmarks (OAR) 2,953 7,384 12,836 9,883
NESDIS 51,651 60,512 59,882 8,231
NESDIS Data Centers Info. Mgt. 29,897 35,908 31,781 1,884
Earmarks 21,754 24,604 28,101 6,347
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 17,258 17,634 19,699 2,441
Program Support - Facilities 3,464 3,465 3,479
TOTAL CLIMATE 241,552 256,669 234,908 -11,624
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FY06 Earmarks
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Grants Distribution

• NOAA has maintained a steady proportion of our
  appropriation for the external
• community through the Climate Program Office
  (formerly Office of Global Programs)
• NOAA has kept its promise to put more money into
  the external community
• through the Climate Observations Services
  Program (COSP) as a result of the CCRI
• initiative since FY 2003. However, because
  the appropriation for CCRI and COSP has
• been significantly decreased, we expect this
  portion to go down in COSP

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FY07 Expanding Priorities OSTP Environment
Research Initiatives
Global Earth Observations Pilot integrated
observing systems, such as those that contribute
to natural hazard assessment and disaster
warnings. Ensure continued coordination and
implementation of the US Strategic Plan (for
IEOS) and continued strong US leadership in the
international community. Global Climate
Change Implement the 2003 Strategic Plan for
the US Climate Change Science Program and focus
on the topics described in the 2003 US Climate
Change technology Program Research and Current
Activities. Ocean Observations and
Research Implement activities outlined in the
Administration's 2004 US Ocean Action Plan.
Fresh Water Supplies, US and Global Improve
research to understand the processes that control
water availability and quality collect and
make available the data needed to ensure an
adequate water supply for the future. FY2007
Administration Research and Development Budget
Priorities Release 8th July 2005
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FY07 Request

• National Integrated Drought Information System
  4M
• Coping with Drought Impacts Research
• Improved Climate Predictions 2M
• Explain Climate Conditions to Improve
  Predictions (Reanalysis)
• Integrated Ocean Observation System 6.1M
• Climate Reference Network (CRN) 1.2M (restores
  to FY04 level)
• Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) 2.7M
  (restores to FY04 level)

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Comparison of NOAA Climate Budget Structure
NOAA has been working with OMB and Congressional
staff to improve its budget structure and enable
NOAA to have more flexibility when executing its
budget
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NOAA CLIMATE PROGRAM

  Operations, Research and Facilities FY 2004 FY2005 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2006 FY 2007
 Procurement, Acquisition, Construction Enacted President Enacted President's Enacted President's
NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE 1,433 2,000 1,478 2,000 1,478 1,984
Climate Regimes Ecosystem Productivity 1,433 2,000 1,478 2,000 1,478 1,984
NOAA RESEARCH 171,210 181,204 173,828 174,276 166,098 177,832
Laboratories Cooperative Institutions 44,163 46,005 42,860 44,627 45,843 44,968
Climate Data Information 3,049 0 0 0 2,401 6,266
Competitive Research Program 0 0 0 0 110,587 125,712
Climate Operations 0 0 0 0 363 886
Climate Global Change Program 69,659 59,325 67,517 57,405 0 0
Climate Observations Services 47,749 72,820 53,134 69,227 0 0
Arctic Research Program 3,637 3,054 4,928 3,017 0 0
Other Partnership Programs 2,953 0 5,389 0 6,904 0
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 17,258 18,060 17,634 21,635 19,699 9,612
NESDIS 51,651 38,192 60,512 38,511 59,882 37,157
PROGRAM SUPPORT 3,514 3,464 3,514 3,465 3,479
Facilities 0 3,514 3,464 3,514 3,465 3,479
TOTAL NOAA CLIMATE PROGRAM 241,552 242,970 256,916 239,936 250,622 230,064
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Climate Goal BudgetBy Climate Program
Climate Programs FY 2004 Enacted FY 2005 Enacted FY 2006 Enacted Difference 2006-2004 FY 2007 Pres.Bud.
COA 127,685 138,446 133,969 6,284 114,300
CF 33,712 42,887 37,748 4,036 39,200
CPP 61,785 59,358 59,576 -2,209 57,400
CE 1,433 1,478 4,437 3,004 1,764
RDS 16,937 14,747 14,892 -2,045 17,400
Total 241,552 256,916 250,622 9,070 230,064
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Proposed FY08 Priorities

• National Integrated Drought Information System
• Drought Internet Portal
• Improved Observations
• System monitoring
• Improved Climate Predictions
• Climate Test Bed
• Weather Climate Connection
• Integrated Ocean Observation System
• Climate Forcing
• Aerosol Forcing
• Carbon Monitoring
• Water Vapor Processes

39
Proposed FY09 Themes
40
Trends
Bleak Fiscal Climate Growing Commitments Increasin
g External Demands Expanding Priorities The Risks
of Drift
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NOAA/NASA Research and Operations Transitions
42
Background

• A Joint Working Group was (JWG) established
  December 2005 by Interagency Agreement on Terms
  of Reference (ToR)
• ToR states that JWG will report on progress of
  the following activities by January 31, 2006
• Organizational and performance framework for RO
  activity
• Process for transitioning the use of NASA
  research capabilities to NOAA and to facilitate
  use of NOAA operational capabilities in support
  of NASA
• Near-term opportunities for transitioning
  capabilities
• NASA FY2005 Authorization Act directs the
  establishment of JWG, with status report to
  Congress by February 15, 2007

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Approach to Process

• Approach to Process
• Identify Opportunities
• Form Transition Teams to
• Evaluate the ability to achieve the transition
• Assess what would be required to effect a
  successful transition
• Connect with NOAA and/or NASA budget planning
• Report to JWG
• Opportunity Categories
• Observing Capability Transition (implementing
  operational satellite observations to continue
  measurement streams begun in research programs)
• Mission Extension (extending research missions
  beyond their prime missions when those missions
  have both research and operational uses)
• Data Record Development and Stewardship (creation
  of long-term data records that extend the
  research data records)
• Data utilization (acceleration of the operational
  use of data from research programs)
• Tools and Standards Transition (development of
  tools and standards that can be used for both
  research and operations)

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Opportunity Categories
Near Term Mid Term Long Term
NASA funded and deployed effort, demonstrated operational benefits, NOAA currently expending funds to support transition Under development and/or deployed by NASA, NOAA evaluating potential operational benefit Under study or concept development by NASA, NOAA anticipates potential future operational benefit
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Links to Ongoing NOAA Budget Execution

• FY2006 Execution
• Sea Surface Height, Surface Vector Winds, Ocean
  Color
• Develop and execute plan for 4M earmark NOAA
  teams for each effort are in place, NASA has
  been encouraged to participate
• FY2007 Budgeting
• Ocean Surface Topography Mission
• Program funds for ground station development and
  pre-launch calibration/validation work are in
  place

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Links to NOAA Process

• FY2008 Budgeting
• Respond to FY2008 Program Decision Memorandum
• Weather and Water Goal to assess feasibility of
  Solar Wind BAA proposals
• NOAA Observing System Council to analyze impact
  of loss of NASA research capabilities on NOAA
  operational products and services recommend
  research capabilities that require transition to
  operations
• Satellite sub-goal to consider additional
  inter-satellite calibration of instruments and
  development of improved product suites. Develop
  recommendation for inclusion in FY08 budget
  formulation (e.g., NOAA/NIST Initiative)
• JWG provide input to NOAA Transition Board on
  JWG-identified transitions

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Links to NOAA Process

• FY2009 Planning
• Identify transition opportunities in April
  Workshop
• Provide input to Mission Goals by June 1 for
  preparation of POPs
• Provide Transition Plans to Goals by August 31,
  for preparation of Program Plans

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Working Schedule
7/06
11/06
4/06
5/06
2/07
1/06
9/06
NASA NOAA JWG Formed
FY-09 Opportunities Selected
Transition Teams Formed
Transition Teams Develop Plans
Transition Plans Completed (Defining steps
necessary for successful transitions)
Draft Report to Congress (about FY08
opportunities)
Final Report to Congress
Cross-NOAA Team Re-constituted (for 4M)
NOAA FY09 POP Input Submitted
JWG First Report
JWG Second Report
49
NOAA Climate Program And the US Climate Change
Science Program Update
50
CCSP Retreat

• Interagency Working Groups
• Decision Support
• Program Integration
• Metrics
• Leadership

51
NOAA Climate ActivitiesFY06 Enacted Budget
Program Support 1 (Boulder Facilities)
Other Partnerships 3
CCSP 63
Operations 32 Data Centers, Predictions, Delivery
Directly Related 1 Arctic, Fisheries
52
NOAA Climate Program alignment with CCSP Goals
FY04 Actual 116.4M
FY05 Actual 119.9M
FY06 Enacted 150.5M
FY06 Our Changing Planet
53
Selected CCSP Agencies(from Our Changing Planet
FY06)
AGENCY FY 05 Estimate ( M) FY 06 Pres.Bud. ( M) FOCUS
NOAA/1 123.7 180.9 Sustained observations and extended climate records, applied research, projections and decision support
NSF 198.0 197.0 Basic research
NASA (research) 292.1 280.9 Remote sensing
DOE 128.6 132.1 Climate modeling/scenarios
USDA 72.7 88.5 Land-use, terrestrial ecosystems
EPA 20.0 20.5 Risk Assessments
/1 Starting in FY06, funding to NOAAs
Laboratories is included as part of the NOAAs
activities. This is a result of the
evolution of NOAAs role in CCSP.
54
CCSP Near-Term Deliverables

• To comply with the terms of Section 106 of GCR
  Act, the CCSP will produce assessments that focus
  on a variety of science and policy issues
  important for public discussion and
  decision-making.
• The assessments will be composed of syntheses,
  reports, and integrated analyses that the CCSP
  will complete over the next 4 years.
• This approach takes account of the need for
  assessments on the full range of issues spanning
  all CCSP objectives and will provide a "snapshot"
  of knowledge of the environmental and
  socioeconomic aspects of climate variability and
  change.

55
CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products
(SA) Status of NOAA IQA-Led CCSP SA Products
56
Climate Working Group
57
Next Meetings July 31 - Aug 3 Summer
Retreat Topic NOAA and the Drought
Challenge Place Lodge at Santa Fe, New
Mexico See Handout for Proposal Need to Approve
by March 31. October 10 -11 Priorities Topic
Review of NOAA FY09-13 Priorities Place TBD
58
CWG Membership Get updated nominee list and needs
59
CWG Membership Rotation
2006 2007 2008
Abbott Curry Wood
Brown Prather Weller
Busalacchi Broad Shea
Penner Overpeck Pietrafesa
Trenberth Stephens Carbone
TBD TBD TBD
60
BACKUP
61
Potential CWG Member Nominees

• 1. Regional Services
• Kelly Redmond (Western RCC, DRC)
• D. Robinson (Rutgers, State Cli.)
• Ken Kunkel (Ill. State Water Survey)
• 2. Operations
• Tony Hollingsworth (ECMWF)
• Alan Betts (ECMWF)
• Vanessa L. Griffin (NASA Goddard Space Flight
  Center)
• 3. Industry
• Heidi Cullen (The Weather Channel)
• Raymond J. Ban (The Weather Channel)
• Bob Ryan (WRC-4)
• Kristie L. Ebi (Electric Power Research
  Institute)
• Frank Nutter (ReInsurance Assoc)
• George Frederick (Vaisala)
• Mack McFarland (DuPont) (Emissions and Atm.
  Comp.)
• Ken Haas (Ford Motor)
• Brian P. Flannery (Exxon Mobil Corporation)
  (Emissions, tech)
• T. Stephen Wittrig (BP) (Emissions, Tech.)

62
Potential CWG Member Nominees

• 4. Carbon
• Mike Bender (Princeton)
• Steve Pacala (Princeton)
• Steven C. Wofsy (Harvard University)
• Cindy Lee (SUNY-Stonybrook)
• Bob Anderson (LDEO/Columbia)
• Dave Karl (Univ. of Hawaii)
• A. Scott Denning (Colorado State University)
• Chris Field (Carnegie/Stanford)
• Alan Lucier (National Council for Air and Stream
  Improvement)
• 5. Decision Support
• Roger Pulwarty (Univ. of Colorado/CIRES)
• Katharine L. Jacobs (Arizona State Department of
  Water Resources)
• William Pizer or Molly Macauley (RFF)
• David Cash (Mass State Env. Affairs) Air Policy
  (former Harvard U Clark group, evaluated dec.
  supp. activities)

63
Potential CWG Member Nominees

• 6. Socio-Economic Impacts
• Diana M. Liverman (Oxford)
• Bill Easterling (Pennsylvania State University)
• Diane McKnight (Ucolorado)
• Cynthia Rosenzweig (NASA GISS)
• 7. Water Resources/Land Processes
• Jim Shuttleworth (Univ. of Arizona)
• Dennis Lettenmaier (Univ. of Washington)
• John R. Townshend (University of Maryland)
• Douglas McChesney (Washington State Department of
  Ecology) or somebody from a State Water Resources
  Board
• Peter Gleick (Pacific Institute)
• David Matthews (Bureau of Reclamation)
• Daniel Lashof (Natural Resources Defense Council)
• Roni Avissar (Duke University)
• Jayant Sathaye (Lawrence Berkeley National
  Laboratory)
• Anthony C. Janetos (H. John Heinz, III Center)
• Steven W. Running (University of Montana)
• David Skole (Michigan State University)

64
Potential CWG Member Nominees

• 8. Oceans
• Paul Bissett (Florida Env. Res. Inst.)
• Rita Colwell (Univ. of Maryland, Canon)
• 9. Atmospheric Dynamics, Chemistry/Composition
• James Anderson (Harvard University)
• Daniel J. Jacob (Harvard University)
• William H. Brune (Pennsylvania State University)
• James Hurrell (NCAR)
• 10. Ecosystem
• Richard A. Houghton (Woods Hole Research Center)
• 11. Polar
• John Walsh (Univ. of Alaska)
• Lawson W. Brigham (U.S. Arctic Research
  Commission)
• 12. Socio-Economic
• James A. Edmonds (PNNL)
• Andrew Solow (Woods Hole Oceanographic
  Institution)

65
Potential CWG Member Nominees

• 13. Climate Change and Modeling
• Max J. Suarez (NASA)
• Philip B. Duffy (Lawrence Livermore National
  Laboratory)
• 14. Observations and Data Systems
• Thomas A. Boden (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)
• Bruce Wielicki (NASA Langley)
• Roberta Balstad Miller (Columbia
  University)(Social Sciences and data issues, not
  services)
• 15. Integrated Assessments
• Gerald M. Stokes (Joint Global Change Research
  Institute)

66
NOAA Climate Program In the Community
67
(No Transcript)
68
NOAA Climate

• What makes NOAAs role in Climate Science unique?
  

• NOAA has many leadership roles
• Only agency that provides operational climate
  forecasts and information services (nationally
  and internationally)
• Only agency that provides daily information
  about climate to all sectors
• Recognized as a leader in climate change science
  both nationally and internationally
• Provides scientific leadership for the
  Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC)
  Working Group I
• Leader for the US Climate Change Science Program
  (CCSP)
• Leader for 7 of the 21 CCSP Synthesis and
  Assessment products
• Leader in the implementation of the Global Ocean
  Observing System (NOAA contributes 51 of in situ
  observations, other US agencies 3)

Examples of interagency coordination Interagency
Working Group on Earth Observations, North
American Carbon Program, CCSP Interagency Working
Groups
69
Emerging Delivery of Climate Services
Current Products Future Products
Type of Service Sample Products Frequency of Issuance Example Users
Data and Monitoring Products Observed Data Sets, Climatologies, Climate Normals, Indices, Drought Monitor Weekly, Annually, Decadally Construction, Heating, Fire management,
Assessments IPCC, Ozone layer, Fisheries stocks North American Carbon Budget, Sea level rise impacts 5 years, Biannually National/ International energy and land use, Agriculture, Insurance
Outlooks Week Two to Interannual, Drought outlook Air Quality, chemistry, and ecosystem outlooks, Weather risks. Weekly, Monthly Public health, Energy, Agriculture, Water, resource managers, policy makers, public
Projections (if, then) Scenario model runs Ecosystem outlooks, Net oceanic and terrestrial primary productivity, Coastal ecosystem response Annually, 5 year, 10 year Energy, Coastal and Marine Ecosystems managers, Policy makers
Regional Decision Support Streamflow information, Fine scale climate mapping, Local ENSO impacts Wildfire outlooks, Coastal inundation mapping, Regional carbon maps On demand, Monthly, Seasonally-Annually Agriculture, Fire and water resource mgmt., Coastal and fisheries mgmt., Energy/emissions mgmt.
NOAAs climate services provide data,
operational, and information products.
Climate Services are the timely production and
delivery of useful climate data, information, and
knowledge to users, including decision makers.
Product is a general term for tangible results,
technology, or information that have potential
value in one or more uses.
70
CLIMATE PROGRAM PERFORMANCE MEASURES
Performance measures to assess achievement of
goal outcomes
PROGRAM PERFORMANCE MEASURE PERFORMANCE OBJECTIVE DESIRED END STATE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS Increased percentage of ocean, atmospheric, and select terrestrial climate state variables with quantitative analysis reports in NOAAs Annual State of the Climate reports Describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observation, analysis, and data stewardship Integrated and complete ocean and surface, upper air and space observing systems in support of the mission outcome
CLIMATE FORCING Improved estimates of the magnitude, associated error, and sources of variability in atmospheric forcing agents Reduce uncertainty in climate projections through timely information on the forcing and feedbacks contributing to change in the Earths climate Sufficient information and understanding necessary to link specific emissions to the radiative forcing of climate change, leading to useful products and services for science-based decisions at global, regional, and local levels
CLIMATE PREDICTIONS AND PROJECTIONS Increased climate predictive skill over a range of time scales Improve climate predictive capability from weeks to decades, with an increased range of a applicability for management and policy decisions A seamless suite of forecasts on intraseasonal, interannual, and multi-decadal timescales and applications using ensembles of multiple climate models in support of the mission outcome
CLIMATE AND ECOSYSTEMS Increased number of ecological forecasts and living marine resource assessments used by managers that incorporate indices of climate variability and change Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems An ability to predict probable consequences of global climate change on ecological systems and living resources in support of the mission outcome
REGIONAL DECISION SUPPORT Improved ability of society to plan and respond to climate variability and climate change using NOAA climate products and information Increase availability of climate products and services to enhance public and private-sector decision-making A mature and efficient system for understanding and responding to stakeholder needs for products and services in support of the mission outcome to incorporate NOAA products into plans and decisions
71

CLIMATE PROGRAM PERFORMANCE MEASURES
72
Senate language in the NOAA FY05 budget for NOAA

• Provide NOAA the capability to transition NASA
  remote sensed ocean measurements into operational
  products for the user community
• Observations explicitly mentioned ocean winds
  from scatterometers,sea levelfrom altimeters,
  andocean color
• Initially a one-year 4M level of effort, with no
  assurance for continuation, it was continued in
  the FY06 budget
• Continued as Research to Operations/NASA-NOAA
  Partnerships

73
NASA FY2005 Authorization Act

• SEC. 306. COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL OCEANIC
  AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
• (a) JOINT WORKING GROUP.The Administrator and
  the Administrator of NOAA shall appoint a Joint
  Working Group, which shall review and monitor
  missions of the two agencies to ensure maximum
  coordination in the design, operation, and
  transition of missions where appropriate. The
  Joint Working Group shall also prepare the plans
  required by subsection (c).
• (b) COORDINATION REPORT.Not later than February
  15 of each year, beginning with the first fiscal
  year after the date of enactment of this Act, the
  Administrator and the Administrator of NOAA shall
  jointly transmit a report to the Committee on
  Science of the House of Representatives and the
  Committee on Commerce, Science, and
  Transportation of the Senate on how the earth
  science programs of NOAA and NASA will be
  coordinated during the fiscal year following the
  fiscal year in which the report is transmitted.
• (c) COORDINATION OF TRANSITION PLANNING AND
  REPORTING. The Administrator, in conjunction
  with the Administrator of NOAA and in
  consultation with other relevant agencies, shall
  evaluate relevant NASA science missions for their
  potential operational capabilities and shall
  prepare transition plans for the existing and
  future Earth observing systems found to have
  potential operational capabilities.
• (d) LIMITATION.The Administrator shall not
  transfer any NASA earth science mission or Earth
  observing system to the NOAA until the plan
  required under subsection (c) has been approved
  by the Administrator and the Administrator NOAA
  and until financial resources have been
  identified to support the transition or transfer
  in the Presidents budget request for NOAA

74
Sea Surface Height Transition

• NOAA Lead Ants Leetma (OAR/GFDL)
• Near Term Objectives
• Sign the MOU for OSTM/Jason-2
• Complete ground system with EUMETSAT for OSTM
• Confirm requirements for Jason-3
• How many altimeters? What kind? (frequencies,
  orbits, etc.)
• Build case for Jason-3 in FY2009 budget

75
Surface Vector Winds Transition

• NOAA Lead Bob Atlas (OAR/AOML)
• Near Term Objectives
• Confirm requirements for Surface Vector Winds
  (SVW)
• Hold workshop 1st week of June at Tropical
  Prediction Center to lay out plan for evaluating
  the similarities, differences, and synergies for
  all sources of SVW observations
• Examples are Windsat, CMIS, ASCAT, QuikSCAT,
  Dual-frequency MEOSCAT
• Assess options to meet those requirements

76
Ocean Color Transition

• Lead Rick Stumpf (NOS/NCCOS)
• Near Term Objectives
• Include MOBY in Climate/NIST initiative
• Clarify requirements (M. Abbott 2nd workshop at
  NOAA Cooperative Institute for Oceanographic
  Satellite Studies)
• Insert Ocean Color requirements in the FY2009
  PPBES Planning Phase

77
A Research-to-Operations Transition ProcessHow
it has been done - sequential

• NASA
• Justify a research mission on whatever basis
• Implement the research mission
• Demonstrate the technology show that it works
• Retrieve geophysical products show that they
  make sense
• Demonstrate scientific utility show that the
  products are useful
• NOAA NASA
• Conduct demonstrations in a setting to entrain
  operational users
• Supply access timely down-linking and product
  generation
• Provide knowledge of, and tools for, using those
  products
• Demonstrate real/potential benefits satisfy
  operational user needs show value
• NOAA
• Justify an operational mission based on cost and
  benefit
• Implement the new/modified systems with a means
  to ensure continuity
• Optimize the performance of the operational
  system
• Maintain scientific involvement to validate
  operational products
• NASA NOAA
• Encourage access to data for research use in
  order to facilitate the development of improved
  operational products

78
A Research-to-Operations Transition Process How
it could be done in parallel

• NASA at the same time, NOAA enters a
  complementary wedge in PPBES process
• Justify a research mission on whatever basis
• Implement the research mission
• Demonstrate the technology show that it works
• Retrieve geophysical products show that they
  make sense
• Demonstrate scientific utility show that the
  products are useful
• NOAA NASA
• Conduct demonstrations in a setting to entrain
  operational users
• Supply access timely down-linking and product
  generation
• Provide knowledge of, and tools for, using those
  products
• Demonstrate real/potential benefits satisfy
  operational user needs show value
• NOAA
• Justify an operational mission based on cost and
  benefit
• Implement the new/modified systems with a means
  to ensure continuity
• Optimize the performance of the operational
  system
• Maintain scientific involvement to validate
  operational products
• NASA NOAA
• Encourage access to data for research use in
  order to facilitate the development of improved
  operational products