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Should drilling be permitted in the Alaska
National Wildlife Refuge?

• Identify the important elements
• Evaluate facts about each
• See how they connect and interact

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Systems analysis starts with a concept map

• Compartments
• Where you find elements that can be counted
  (water, land, trees or people, money)
• Flows (exchanges)
• Movements of things you can count between
  compartments
• Influences
• Factors that influence flows (temperature,
  regulations, amount of sunlight)

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ANWR System Diagram

• Outline the major components of this system
• What is included in the system? What does that
  mean?
• ID Stocks, Flows, Influences
• Where do your questions fit into this system?
• Which component is the focus of your question?
• What other components will influence the answer?
• Do other questions arise as you build the system?

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How is the concept evaluated?

• Have important elements been left out?
• Are premises correct?
• Accuracy of data
• Accuracy of dynamic connections
• Are conclusions or predictions correct?
• What form of extrapolation is used?
• Do predictions allow for the unexpected?
• What values inform the response to predicted
  change?

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What will change under different scenarios of
development or protection?
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Fig. 1.9
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