1 Global Perspective

1
Intensity of Energy Use
Topics 1 Global Perspective 2 China Situation 3
United States 4 California 5 Conclusions
Mark D. Levine MDLevine_at_lbl.gov For Energy
Climate Mini-Workshop Monday, 3 November 2008
2
Intensity of Energy Use

• Definition
• Reducing intensity of energy use includes
• energy efficiency
• structural change in economy
• (producing and consuming
• less energy-intensive products)
• energy conservation

3

1 Global Perspective
4
Annual Global CO2 Emissions??????????
???????
billion tonnes carbon dioxide
Other Global Emissions ???????
China ??
US ??
Source Historical 1950-2003 US and global
emissions data from Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis
Center 2004-2006 US data from BP via Global
Carbon Project. China 1950-2006 emissions data
are derived from revised total energy consumption
data published in the 2007 China Statistical
Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon
coefficients by LBNL ???? 1950-2003??????????????
??????????????????2004-2006?????????BP???????????
1950-2006?????????????-??????????????2007????????
?????????1996 IPCC????????.
5

• Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas
  emissions increased by 70.

Total GHG emissions
WEO 07 base casefor 2030has 55increase
from 2005(increase of25 Gt CO2 eq/yr)
60
55
Gt CO2eq/yr
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2004
6
IPCC (WGIII) Estimates of Economically Feasible
CO2eq/yr Reductions in 2030 by Sector
Total reductions Low 13Gt/yr High
24Gt/y Constant emissions 25Gt/yr
in 2030
6
4
4
3
3
3
2
From Design to Win (2007), a project of
several foundations led by the Hewlett Foundation
7
Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the World
IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) and EIA
(Energy/Market Exchange Rate)
2
- 1.3
- 1.3
Average - 0.7
1
0
-1
-2
-3
IEA data
EIA data
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
-4
note Russia not included until 1992 in IEA data
and 1993 in EIA data
8
Strategic Considerations

• Two crucial immediate actions needed
• (1) energy efficiency, (2) land use, and (3)
  cost-effective low carbon (electricity) supply
• Very aggressive RDD, especially on zero-carbon
  electricity (including electricity storage)
• Much stronger government policies needed
• Carbon tax (or cap and trade)
• Rigorous policies are needed for all end-use
  sectors
• Efficiency and fuel economy standards, building
  codes and retrofit requirements, and expanded
  demand-side management (DSM)
• Few countries address industrial sector
• Beyond energy efficiency conservation and
  structural change
• Change production processes (e.g., cement)
• Change industrial output and consumption patterns
• Lifestyle change

9

2 United States
10
(No Transcript)
11
1973
2005
12
Source David Goldstein
13
United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) and
Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time
2000
Estimated Standby
1800
Power (per house)
1600
1400
Refrigerator Use per
1978 Cal Standard
Unit
1200
1987 Cal Standard
Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year)
1000
1980 Cal Standard
800
1990 Federal
600
Standard
400
1993 Federal
Standard
2001 Federal
200
Standard
0
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
14
High is worst
15
High is worst
16
High is worst
17

3 China
18
Energy GDP Growth in China??????????????(GDP)?
??????
??????(?????)
????????????????????(1950-2002)
Estimated energy use at 1980 GDP energy
intensity ??1980????????????????????
152 EJ (official GDP) 152????? (???????????)
103 EJ (revised GDP) 103????? (?????????)
Primary Energy Use (EJ)
Actual energy use ??????
58 EJ (actual) 58?????(??)
Source China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory ???????-????????,??????????
19
Energy-conservation policies measures in Phase
II

• Energy Management
• factory energy consumption quotas
• factory energy conservation monitoring
• efficient technology promotion
• close inefficient facilities
• controls on oil use
• Financial Incentives
• low interest rates for efficiency project loans
• reduced taxes on efficient product purchases
• incentives to develop new efficient products
• monetary awards to efficient enterprises

• R D D
• funded strategic technology development
• funded demonstration projects
• Information Services
• national information network
• national, local, and sectoral efficiency
  technical service centers
• Education Training
• national, local, and sectoral efficiency training
  centers
• Energy Conservation Week
• school curricula

20
Energy and GDP, Path to 2020??????????????(?2020?
)
????(??????)
36
2.7
??????(??2000?????)
energy target ????
32
2.4
Actual energy ??????
28
2.1
24
1.8
Energy Consumed (billion tce)
GDP target ????????
20
1.5
GDP (trillion 2000 RMB)
16
1.2
Actual GDP ????????
12
0.9
8
0.6
4
0.3
0
0
Source NBS, China Statistical Yearbook, various
years China Statistical Abstract 2005 growth
estimates extrapolated from mid-year production
data for 2005 targets announced by
NDRC ???????????,??????(??)??????(2005)2005????
????2005???????????????????????????????????
21
Annual CO2 Emissions US China?????????????
???????
US ??
million tons carbon dioxide
China ??
Source US annual emissions amounts reported by
US EIA in the 2006 Annual Energy Review and 2007
Flash Estimate China emissions are derived from
revised total energy consumption data published
in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using
revised 1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by
LBNL ???? ??????????????????2006??????2007??????
??????????????????????????2007?????????????????199
6 IPCC????????.
22
Global, Chinese U.S. Per-Capita Energy-Related
CO2 Emissions 1950-20041950-2004???????????????
????????
?????/?
US ??
tons CO2/person
Global Average ????
China ??
Source China emissions are derived from revised
total energy consumption data published in the
2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised
1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by LBNL
China population data from NBS and US Census (for
1950-51) global and American emissions data from
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide
Information Analysis Center global and American
population data from US Census ??????????????????
????????????2007?????????????????1996
IPCC????????.????????????????(??1950-51??????????)
????????????????????????????????????????????????
23
Chinas Cement Production 1990 2007
Chinas Steel Production 1990 2007
Coal Use Energy-Related CO2 ???????????????
????????(1990-2007?)
????????(1990-2007?)
Million Metric Tons
???
Source China Iron and Steel Association
Institute of Technical Information for the
Building Materials Industry U.S. Geological
Survey ????????????????????????????????
24
Rest of World 26
Cement Production Worldwide 2007 ???????2007
????
Mexico 2
???
Italy 2
???
Turkey 2
???
Spain 2
???
Russia 2
Rep of Korea 2
???
United States 4 (includes
Puerto Rico)
Japan 3
??
??
??
India 6
China 50
??(??????)
??
Source U.S. Geological Survey 2008. Mineral
Commodity Summaries Cement China National
Bureau of Statistics, 2008 ???????????2008??
??????????????2008????
25
Industrial Energy Intensities are
Declining?????????
2.0
?????/2000?????
Smelting rolling of ferrous metals ?????????
1.8
Petroleum, coke nuclear ??,?????
1.6
Non-metal mineral products ???????
1.4
1.2
Chemicals ??
kgce/RMB (2000)
1.0
0.8
Non-ferrous metals ????
Coal ?
Paper ??
0.6
0.4
Electricity ??
0.2
Textiles ??
0
Source China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory ???????-????????, ??????????
26

• China has mounted an aggressive set of programs
  to reduce energy intensity by 20 from 2005 to
  2010
• It is likely to achieve a 15 reduction in energy
  intensity
• Because of large future CO2 emissions of China,
  there is a strong case to be made for
  international support for China to reduce growth
  of emissions

27

4 California
28
California
29
Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including
self-generation)
30
Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs
and Standards
CEC (2005)
31
Annual Usage of Air Conditioning in New Homes in
California
Annual drop averages 4 per year
3,000
Initial California Title 24
2,500
Building Standards
100
California Title 20
2,000
Appliance Standards
Estimated Impact of
1976-1982
2006 SEER 12
kWh/YEAR
Standards
1,500
1,000
33
1992 Federal Appliance
500
Standard
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source CEC Demand Analysis Office
32
Annual Spending on Electricity Energy Efficiency
(1976-2002)
CEC Staff Report Proposed Energy Savings Goals
for Energy Efficiency Programs in California
(2003)
33
Dramatic Increase in CA Utility DSM Program
(2006-2008)
Projected Spending on Electrical Energy
Efficiency (2006-2008)
Historical Spending on Electrical Energy
Efficiency (1976-2002)
CEC Staff Report Proposed Energy Savings Goals
for Energy Efficiency Programs in California
(2003)
34
Projected Impact of EE programs in reducing
utility load growth (2004-2013)

• Utilities forecasted load growth without energy
  efficiency ranges from 1.1 to 2.4 annually
• The three CA utilities expect to reduce
  electricity growth to lt0.5/year (by gt75 from
  base case expectations) over coming 10 years!

35

5 Observations and Conclusions
36
Greatest Needs to Reduce Energy Intensity

• What we cant do well enough need for RDD
• Near zero-energy commercial buildings
• Electricity storage, especially batteries for
  vehicles
• Industrial process and product substitution
  (including dematerialization)
• Changes in behavior and lifestyle
• U.S. Policy
• More rigorous standards and codes for buildings,
  industry, and automobiles
• Transfer DSM capabilities among utilities
• Open discussion of cap and trade vs. carbon tax
• International, especially China and India
• Phase out CDM too expensive and not effective
• Programs to support policies to reduce GHG
  emissions