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Scenarios on the impact of pandemic influenza: preparedness planning

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Scenarios on the impact of pandemic influenza: preparedness planning Marianne van Genugten, Marie-Louise Heijnen, Hans Jager Pandemic influenza? – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Scenarios on the impact of pandemic influenza: preparedness planning


1
Scenarios on the impact of pandemic influenza
preparedness planning
  • Marianne van Genugten, Marie-Louise Heijnen, Hans
    Jager

2
Pandemic influenza?
  • Influenza viruses changes slightly and frequently
    over time (antigenic drift)
  • In some years the virus changes dramatically
    (antigenic shift)
  • Earlier pandemics

3
Pandemic plan
  • Another influenza pandemic is inevitable
  • High morbidity and mortality
  • ? Influenza pandemic plan
  • The Dutch Ministry on Health, Welfare and sports
    has designed a national plan in order to minimise
    the effects of pandemic influenza

4
Question
  • What is the expected number of of
    hospitalisations and deaths during an influenza
    pandemic?
  • 1) What are options for intervention? ?
    Building-up of stocks (national level)
  • 2) Number of hospital beds needed versus
    available. ? Contingency planning (local level)

5
Method
  • Many uncertainties ? Scenario-analysis
  • model and data
  • expert consultation
  • assumptions
  • scenarios

6
Model
7
Data need
  • Population by risk
  • Age-specific attack, hospitalisation and death
    rates
  • including excess
  • Efficacy

8
Main assumptions
  • pandemic influenza ? usual epidemic influenza
  • age-specific hospitalisation, death and attack
    rates as in earlier epidemics
  • basic care
  • (sensitivity analysis on age-specific rates)

9
Scenarios
  • Non intervention
  • No influenza vaccine available and pneumococcal
    vaccination of risk groups
  • No influenza vaccine available and therapeutic
    use of antivirals for each person with influenza
    like illness
  • Influenza vaccine available

10
Number of hospitalisations and deaths
11
Result 1 Avoided number of hospitalisations /
required doses
12
Result 2 Hospital beds needed/available
  • Non intervention scenario
  • duration 6 weeks
  • length of hospital stay 8-14 days
  • ? 6.000-8.500 beds needed
  • Total number of beds 55.000
  • Beds available depends on occupancy rate and
    nursing staff available

13
Preparedness planning
  • RIVM ? policy makers
  • Message policy makers ? flu can be serious
  • minister of Health (national level)
  • contingency planners (local level)

14
Conclusions
  • Scenario-analysis supports decision makers and
    contingency planners on national and local level
  • Insight in
  • the number of hospitalisations and deaths
  • comparison of intervention options
  • the crucial model parameters
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