MDMP (Introduction)

1
Welcome to Military Decision Making Process
(MDMP)
Steps 5 6 COA Comparison / Approval
2
The Seven Steps of the MDMP
Receipt of Mission
Mission Analysis
Course of Action Development
Course of Action Analysis (War-Game)
Course of Action Comparison
Course of Action Approval
Orders Production
3
Military Decision Making Process
Input
Output
Receipt of Mission

• Commanders initial guidance
• WARNO to staff
• Initial IPB products Cdrs Intent
• Restated mission Initial CCIR
• Updated staff estimates/products
• Preliminary movement
• Cdrs planning guidance Initial ISR plan
• Updated staff estimates
• COA statements and sketches
• Refine Cdrs planning guidance
• Wargame results
• Decisions support templates
• Task Organization
• Mission to subordinate units
• Decision matrix

• Mission received from higher HQ or
• deduced by the Commander and staff
• Higher HQ order/plan/IPB
• Staff estimates
• Facts assumptions
• Restated mission
• Cdrs intent planning guidance
• CCIR
• Staff estimates products
• Enemy COAs
• Refined Cdrs planning guidance
• Enemy COAs
• Friendly COAs
• Staff/BOS COAs
• Wargame results

WARNO 1
Mission Analysis
WARNO 2
Course of Action Development
Course of Action Analysis (War-Game)
Course of Action Comparison
Course of Action Approval
WARNO 3
Orders Production
Note 1 A star ( ) depicts Commander
activities and decisions. Note 2 Rehearsals and
backbriefs occur during preparation and ensure an
orderly transition between planning and execution.
Preparation
Prepare
Plan
Assess
Execution
Execute
4
Step 5 COA Comparison

• Input
• War game results
• Staff estimates

Process Conduct a COA Advantage and
Disadvantage Analysis Compare COAs Develop a
Recommended COA

• Output
• Decision Matrix
• COA Decision Brief

5
Course of Action Comparison

• The staff compares feasible COAs to identify the
  one with the highest
• probability of success against the most likely
  enemy COA and the most
• dangerous enemy COA.
• The selected COA should also
• pose the minimum risk to the force and mission
  accomplishment
• place the force in the best posture for future
  operations
• provide maximum latitude for initiative by
  subordinates
• provide the most flexibility to meet unexpected
  threats and opportunities.

6
Sample Decision Matrix
COA 1
WEIGHT
COA 2
COA 3
CRITERIA
3
2
1
Maneuver (G3/S3)
1
3
2
Simplicity
1
2
3
Fires
3
2
1
The most common method of comparing COAs is the
Decision Matrix.
Intelligence (G2/S2)
1
3
2
ADA
Mobility / Survivability
3
2
1
2
1
3
CSS (G1/4 S1/4)
1
2
3
C2
1
2
3
Residual Risk
1
2
3
IO
TOTAL
19

19
22
LESS IS BEST COA 1 and 2 are the Same
7
Sample Decision Matrix
COA 1
WEIGHT
COA 2
COA 3
CRITERIA
3 (9)
2 (6)
1 (3)
3
Maneuver (G3/S3)
1 (3)
3 (9)
2 (6)
Simplicity
3
1 (4)
2 (8)
3 (12)
4
Fires
3 (3)
2 (2)
1 (1)
The most common method of comparing COAs is the
Decision Matrix.
Intelligence (G2/S2)
1
1 (1)
3 (3)
2 (2)
1
ADA
Mobility / Survivability
3 (3)
2 (2)
1 (1)
1
2 (2)
1 (1)
3 (3)
CSS (G1/4 S1/4)
1
1 (1)
2 (2)
3 (3)
C2
1
1 (2)
2 (4)
3 (6)
Residual Risk
2
1 (1)
2 (2)
3 (3)
IO
1
TOTAL / (Weighted TOTAL)
19 (35)
19 (33)
22 (40)
LESS IS BEST COA 1 RECOMMENDED
8

BOS (S1) Justification Matrix
Course of Action Advantages Disadvantages
COA 1 Decisive operation avoids major terrain obstacles. Adequate maneuver room for decisive operation and reserve. Decisive operation faces stronger resistance at beginning
COA 2 Decisive operation gains good observation early. Shaping operation provides flank protection to the decisive operation. Initially, reserve may have to be employed in AO of shaping operation. Needs detailed and rehearsed procedural and positive controls.
COA 3 Decisive operation lacks good observation early. Shaping operation provides poor flank protection to the decisive operation. Needs detailed and rehearsed procedural and positive controls.
Sample Decision Matrix - Subjective Analysis
Factors Course of Action Course of Action Course of Action
1 2 3
Casualty Estimate -
Medical Evacuation Routes - -
Suitable Location for Medical Facilities - -
Available EPW Facilities - -
Suitable Command Post Locations - -
Courier and Distribution Routes - -
Effects of Attachments and Detachments on Force Cohesion and Replacement Operations -
Residual Risk - -
Sample Decision Matrix - Broad Categories.
9
Step 6 COA Approval

• Output
• Selected COA
• Final Planning
• Guidance
• WARNO 3

• Input
• Decision Matrix
• Recommended COA

• Process
• COA Decision Brief

• COA approval has 3 components
• Staff recommends a COA, usually in a decision
  briefing
• Commander decides which COA to approve
• The Commander issues final planning guidance

10
DECISION BRIEFING CONTENTS

• Intent of higher headquarters
• Restated mission
• Status of own forces
• Current IPB
• COAs considered, including-
• Assumptions
• Results
• Summary of wargame for each COA.
• Advantages and Disadvantages
• Recommended COA

Identify Advantages and Disadvantages (including
risk) of each COA.
11
Sample Decision Matrix
COA 1
WEIGHT
COA 2
COA 3
CRITERIA
3 (9)
2 (6)
1 (3)
3
Maneuver (G3/S3)
1 (3)
3 (9)
2 (6)
Simplicity
3
1 (4)
2 (8)
3 (12)
4
Fires
3 (3)
2 (2)
1 (1)
The most common method of comparing COAs is the
Decision Matrix.
Intelligence (G2/S2)
1
1 (1)
3 (3)
2 (2)
1
ADA
Mobility / Survivability
3 (3)
2 (2)
1 (1)
1
2 (2)
1 (1)
3 (3)
CSS (G1/4 S1/4)
1
1 (1)
2 (2)
3 (3)
C2
1
1 (2)
2 (4)
3 (6)
Residual Risk
2
1 (1)
2 (2)
3 (3)
IO
1
TOTAL / (Weighted TOTAL)
19 (35)
19 (33)
22 (40)
LESS IS BEST COA 1 RECOMMENDED
12
Warning Order 3
Copy __ of __ Copies Issuing
headquarters WARNING ORDER __ Place of
issue References Date/time group of
signature 1. SITUATION Message reference
no. a. Enemy forces. b. Friendly
forces. (1) Mission (2)
Commanders Intent c. Attachments and
detachments. 2. MISSION 3. EXECUTION Intent
(when available). a. Concept of operation
(when available). Assembly area locations (If
applicable, when available). b. Tasks to
maneuver units (when available). (1)
Reconnaissance. (2) Surveillance
(3) Security c. Tasks to combat support
units (when available). d. Coordinating
instructions. (1) Earliest movement
time and degree of notice. (2) Orders
group meeting (attendees, location, and time)
(when applicable). 4. SERVICE SUPPORT a. Special
equipment. b. Transportation. 5. COMMAND AND
SIGNAL ACKNOWLEDGE NAME (Commanders
last name) OFFICIAL RANK (Commanders
rank) ANNEXES DISTRIBUTION

• WARNO 3 includes, as a minimum
• The mission statement.
• The commanders intent.
• The CCIR and EEFI.
• Concept of operations.
• Area of Operation.
• Principle tasks assigned to subordinate units.
• Preparation and Rehearsal instructions not
  included in
• SOPs.
• The final timeline for the operation.

SMFM 101-5-2
13
Military Decision Making Process
Input
Output
Receipt of Mission

• Commanders initial guidance
• WARNO to staff
• Initial IPB products Cdrs Intent
• Restated mission Initial CCIR
• Updated staff estimates/products
• Preliminary movement
• Cdrs planning guidance Initial ISR plan
• Updated staff estimates
• COA statements and sketches
• Refine Cdrs planning guidance
• Wargame results
• Decisions support templates
• Task Organization
• Mission to subordinate units
• Decision matrix

• Mission received from higher HQ or
• deduced by the Commander and staff
• Higher HQ order/plan/IPB
• Staff estimates
• Facts assumptions
• Restated mission
• Cdrs intent planning guidance
• CCIR
• Staff estimates products
• Enemy COAs
• Refined Cdrs planning guidance
• Enemy COAs
• Friendly COAs
• Staff/BOS COAs
• Wargame results

WARNO 1
Mission Analysis
WARNO 2
Course of Action Development
Course of Action Analysis (War-Game)
Course of Action Comparison
Course of Action Approval
WARNO 3
Orders Production
Note 1 A star ( ) depicts Commander
activities and decisions. Note 2 Rehearsals and
backbriefs occur during preparation and ensure an
orderly transition between planning and execution.
Preparation
Prepare
Plan
Assess
Execution
Execute
14
Questions