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Title: Social Work Distance Education Conference


1

Universities in the 21st Century Peril and
Promise in a New Age
  • Social Work Distance Education Conference
  • April 15-17, 2015
  • George L. Mehaffy

2
In fifty years, if not much sooner, half of the
roughly 4,500 colleges and universities now
operating in the United States will have ceased
to exist. The End of
the University as We Know It. Nathan Harden.
The
American Interest. January/February 2013.
http//www.the-american-interest.c
om/article.cfm?piece1352
3
(No Transcript)
4
Great reputation, loyal alumni,
beautiful campus,
84
million endowment
5
  • What Happened?
  • Location Rural
  • Type of School Womens College
  • Students Competition for Shrinking Base of
    Students
  • Costs Rising Costs

6
Technology Changes Everything
7
Think about the impact of technology On
journalism On photography On the music
business On the book publishing/selling
business The Long Tail. Chris Anderson
(Hyperion, 2006)
8
One of technologys impact on business store
closings Abercrombie and Fitch 180 By
2015 Barnes and Noble 223 Over 9
years Aeropostale 175 Next few years JC
Penney 33 By mid-2014 Radio Shack
1,100 Just announced Staples 225 By
2015 Sears 500 Going Forward Family
Dollar 370 2014 http//247wallst.com/special-rep
ort/2014/03/12/retailers-closing-the-most-stores/

9
  • Robert Darnton
  • Four Great Information Ages
  • Invention of Writing, Mesopotamia, 4,000 BC
  • Moveable type
  • Mass steam-powered presses, Industrial Age
  • Internet, after 1993
  • Now You See It Attention and the Future of
    Learning. Cathy N. Davidson, http//chancellor.u
    cdavis.edu/local_resources/pdfs/colloquium-11-12/c
    cvol2_cathy_davidson.pdf

10
Nine (9) Challenges to Public Higher
Education The Meta-Problems
11
  • State Expenditures for Higher Education
  • (as a percentage of all expenditures local,
    state, federal, personal)
  • 1975 60 2010
    34

But huge variations in states From 1980 to
2011- Colorado 69
decline Minnesota 56 decline North
Dakota 1 increase Wyoming
3 increase
Based on the trends since 1980, average state
fiscal support for higher education will reach
zero by 2059. State Funding A Race to the
Bottom. Thomas G. Mortenson http//www.acenet.edu
/the-presidency/columns-and-features/Pages/state-f
unding-a-race-to-the-bottom.aspx
12
2. Cost Model
13
Sources College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2008 Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009,
www.bls.gov U.S. Census, Current Population
Study-ASEC, 2008. From the Delta Project.
Courtesy Jane Wellman
14
Simple Numbers Median inflation-adjusted
7 household income, 2006
2011 Tuition at public four year
18 Institutions, 2006 2011 http//www.nyt
imes.com/2013/02/01/opinion/my-valuable-cheap-coll
ege-degree.html?_r0
Public higher education an historic threshold
Students about to pay a higher percentage than
the state. 2012 net tuition 47 of public
colleges costs. http//chronicle.com/article/Stud
entsStates-Near-a/137709/
15
3. Business Model Higher education is a set of
cross-subsidies graduate education subsidized
by undergraduate upper division subsidized by
lower division
Jane Wellman, Delta Project

http//www.deltacostproject.org/ We also have
cross-subsidies by disciplines.
16
Credit Hour Distribution and Average Instructional Costs Public-four Year Averages, 4-state cost study (SUNY, Florida, Ohio, Illinois) Credit Hour Distribution and Average Instructional Costs Public-four Year Averages, 4-state cost study (SUNY, Florida, Ohio, Illinois) Credit Hour Distribution and Average Instructional Costs Public-four Year Averages, 4-state cost study (SUNY, Florida, Ohio, Illinois) Credit Hour Distribution and Average Instructional Costs Public-four Year Averages, 4-state cost study (SUNY, Florida, Ohio, Illinois)
of all credits taken of total spending on instruction Avg weighted cost/credit
Lower Division 36 23 1.00
Upper Division 48 44 1.42
Grad 1 12 23 2.88
Grad 2 4 9 4.00
100 100 1.55
SHEEO, 2010 Courtesy Jane Wellman SHEEO, 2010 Courtesy Jane Wellman SHEEO, 2010 Courtesy Jane Wellman SHEEO, 2010 Courtesy Jane Wellman
17
NCES, BPS, undergraduates only Courtesy Jane
Wellman
18
  • Moodys Inventor Services
  • Report January 23, 2012
  • Tuition levels are at a tipping point
  • Higher education must innovate to remain viable
  • Collaborations between colleges
  • More centralized management
  • More efficient use of facilities
  • Reduction in number of tenured faculty
  • Geographic and demographic expansion of
  • course offerings
    http//chronicle.com/article/article-con
    tent/130434/

19
4. Evidence of Success 2006 American
Institutes for Research (AIR) 20 of U.S.
college graduates only have basic quantitative
literacy skills unable to estimate if their car
has enough gasoline to get to the next gas
station. More than 50 of students at 4-yr
colleges lack the skills to perform complex
literacy tasks, such as comparing credit card
offers or summarizing the arguments of newspaper
editorials. http//www.air.org/news/index.cfm?fa
viewContentcontent_id445
20
Academically Adrift R. Arum J. Roksa
Study has indicated that 36 of students did not
show any significant improvement in Collegiate
Learning Assessment (CLA) performance over four
years.
21
Graduation Rate, 2010 Study 63.2 of 2003
students who began at a 4 -year college earned
bachelors degree by 2009. Beginning
Postsecondary Survey, National Center for
Education Statistics, U.S. Department of
Education. http//www.quickanded.com/2010/12/u-s-c
ollege-graduation-rate-stays-pretty-much-exactly-t
he-same.html
New Study 2012 Full time students 75 in 6
years Part time students 32 in 6 years New
National Tally of College Completion Tries to
Count All Students. http//chronicle.com/article
/New-National-Tally-of-College/135792/
22
5. Public Opinion 60 (six out of ten) of
Americans in 2010 said that colleges today
focused more on the bottom line than on the
educational experience of students.
http//www.highereducation.org/reports/squeeze_pl
ay_10/squeeze_play_10.pdf
In a recent survey, 80 said that at many
colleges, education received is not worth the
cost. Time Magazine, October 29, 2012, p. 37
Lumina survey in November/December 2012,
three quarters (3/4) of respondents said that
college is unaffordable. http//chronicle.com/arti
cle/Americans-Value-Higher/137023/
23
6. The Role of Venture Capitalists
New Start-Ups Udacity Udemy University
Now Coursebook Coursekit Courseload CourseRank
http//chronicle.com/article/A-Boom-Time-for-Educa
tion/131229/
24
7. Debt Debt Student loan debt exceeded credit
card debt for the first time last year. More
than one trillion dollars Seven in 10 college
seniors (71) who graduated last year had student
loan debt, with an average of 29,400 per
borrower.
http//projectonstudentdebt.org/state_by_state-dat
a.php
25
8. Inequality 1996 - 2012, public colleges and
universities gave a declining portion of
grantsas measured by both the number of grants
and the dollar amountsto students in the lowest
quartile of family income. The task of educating
low-income students has increasingly fallen to
community colleges and for-profit
colleges. http//chronicle.com/article/Public-Coll
eges-Quest-for/141541/
26
Who Receives Merit Aid? 1 in 5 students from
families with income over
250,000 1 in 10 students from families
with income under 30,000
Percentage of 24 Year Olds with College Degrees

1970 2011 Top-income quartile
40 70 Bottom-income quartile
6 10 http//www.nytimes.com/2013/09
/29/magazine/freebies-for-the-rich.html?_r0
27
The higher education system is more and more
complicit as a passive agent in the systematic
reproduction of white racial privilege across
generations.   Since 1995, 82 percent of new
white enrollments have gone to the 468 most
selective colleges, while 72 percent of new
Hispanic enrollment and 68 percent of new
African-American enrollment have gone to the
two-year open-access schools. http//cew.georgeto
wn.edu/separateandunequal/
28
9. Career Preparation Career Readiness
Colleges are doing a good job of preparing
graduates. Agree Provosts 96 Business
Leaders 11 https//www.insidehighered
.com/news/2014/02/26/provosts-business-leaders-dis
agree-graduates-career-readiness
29
Employers are in broad agreement on college
learning outcomes for all students, regardless of
their chosen field of study.
Students/total agree 94 85 86 83 87
All college students should have educational
experiences that teach them how to solve problems
with people whose views are different from their
own
96
All college students should gain an understanding
of democratic institutions and values
87
Every college student should take courses that
build the civic knowledge, skills, and judgment
essential for contributing to our democratic
society
86
Every college student should acquire broad
knowledge in the liberal arts and sciences
78
All college students should gain intercultural
skills and an understanding of societies and
countries outside the United States
78
Falling Short? College Learning and Career
Success. AACU study and presentation. Hart
Research Associates. November/December 2014.
Used with permission.
30
Employers give college graduates lower scores for
preparedness across learning outcomes than
current students give themselves.
Proportions who believe they/recent college
graduates are well prepared in each area
Working effectively with others in teams Staying
current on technologies Ethical judgment and
decisionmaking Locating, organizing, evaluating
information Oral communication Working with
numbers/ statistics Written communication Critical
/analytical thinking Being innovative/creative
31
Are we vulnerable to disruption? Christensen
and Eyring argue that disruption comes from
cheaper and simpler technologies that are
initially of lower quality. Over time, the
simpler and cheaper technology improves to a
point that it displaces the incumbent. The
Innovative University. Clayton Christensen and
Henry J. Eyring. 2011
32
Our Critical Vulnerability The College
Degree The college degree is a proxy for
student ability Digital badges, e-portfolios,
and competency credentials Watch LinkedIn in
the years ahead
33
Clay Shirky --- The biggest threat those of us
working in colleges and universities face isnt
video lectures or online tests. Its the fact
that we live in institutions perfectly adapted
to an environment that no longer
exists. http//www.shirky.com/weblog/2014/01/
34
The greatest challenge to our survival and
success is our inability and/or unwillingness to
change.
35
What might a 21st century university look
like?
36
Core Commitments
37
Commitment to Access
Mission Statement Arizona State
University measured not by who we exclude, but
rather by who we include and how they succeed
I dont think the taxpayers of Florida voted to
tax themselves to build a university that their
children could not attend. John Hitt, President
The University of Central Florida (UCF)
38
  • A commitment to ACCESS Multiple entry points
  • Make every effort to get students into the
    university
  • early college programs in high school
  • summer preparatory academies
  • testing in 11th grade and using 12th grade for
    remediation, etc.
  • community college pathways
  • And then make sure they succeed!

39
Commitment to Student Success
A set of studies by AASCU, Ed Trust, and the
National Association of System Heads (NASH)
40
  • Commitment to Reducing Costs
  • Time to Completion
  • 120 hours for all majors
  • Reducing bottlenecks in completion
  • Charging out-of-state for 30 credits beyond
    graduation requirements
  • Intrusive advising and early remediation
  • Flat rate for summer courses

41
Commitment to the Right Incentives
What counts in the new university? What really
matters? What are the metrics of success? Who
gets rewarded / recognized?
42
Perverse Incentives Cardiac surgeons turned away
the sickest and most severely ill patients after
adopting performance-based health report
cards. Health disparities widened among White,
Black, and Hispanic patients after introducing
physician report cards. http//www.learningoutcom
esassessment.org/documents/HillmanViewpoint.pdf
43
Commitment to Rethinking Status and Prestige
The winners will be those institutions that can
define themselves and find the unique value that
they provide.   Most universities are organized
around envy models.in order to pursue
higher-ranked institutions, a university has to
become more selective, more elite, and more
disconnected from its community.  
44
  • Rules for the 21st Century
  •  
  • Define your value
  • Forget about who is above you
  • Focus on what differentiates you
  • Establish your own brand
  • Dont romanticize your weaknesses
  • Be open
  •  
  • Abelard to Apple The Fate of American Colleges
    and Universities. Richard A. DeMillo

45
Internal Vulnerabilities
46
  • Internal Vulnerabilities
  • Teaching Not Learning
  • Honoring Research Over Teaching
  • Changing Faculty Work/Culture
  • Bifurcated Model of Instruction
  • Faculty-Centric Model

47
1. Teaching Not Learning Our institutions were
created as teaching institutions, instead of
learning institutions. From Teaching to
Learning - A New Paradigm for Undergraduate
Education. Robert B. Barr and John Tagg. Change
Magazine. Nov./.Dec., 1995.
48
What Are the Key Learning Outcomes?
What are the key work and citizenship
requirements of the 21st century? --- Solving
unstructured problems --- Working with new
information --- Carrying out non-routine
tasks--- Complex communication --- Expert
thinking The New Division of Labor How
Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market.
Frank Levy Richard J. Murnane. 2005
49
2. Honoring Research Over Teaching
  • Comparing Teaching Effectiveness
  • Tenure and Non-Tenure Faculty
  • Academic performance, 8 cohorts of
    freshmen 15,662 students, from fall 2001 to fall
    2008.
  • Taking a course from non-tenure track faculty
    members
  • Increases the likelihood that a student will
    take another class in the subject
  • Increases the grade earned in that subsequent
    class
  • Produces the greatest gains for weakest students

  • Northwestern
    University Study

  • http//chronicle.com/article/Ad-juncts-Are-
    Bet-ter/141523/

50
3. Changing Faculty Work/Culture Faculty will
work in a networked world --- in a collaboration
of faculty, other experts, and students across
time and space.
As individuals we will have to abandon that
sense of ourselves as independent actors and
agents. Checklist for Change. Robert
Zemsky. http//chronicle.com/article/How-to-Build-
a-Faculty-Culture/141887
51
The comparison of the work of physicians and
university faculty members is striking Big
Med. Atul Gawande. The New Yorker.
http//www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/08/13/120
813fa_fact_gawande?currentPageall
52
In medical education, Darrell Kirch describes An
Emerging Culture for Health Care 1.     
Hierarchal to Collaborative 2.      Autonomous to
Team-Based 3.      Competitive to
Service-Based 4.      Individualistic to Mutually
Accountable 5.      Expert-centered to
Patient-centered Higher Education and the
Future of American Health Care by Darrell G.
Kirch, M.D., President and CEO, Association of
American Medical Colleges (Washington, D.C.,
November 2, 2010). 
53
  • 4. Bifurcated Model of Instruction
  • Split Cognitive and Affective Learning Outcomes
  • Divided Academic Affairs and Student Affairs

54
  • 5. Faculty-Centric Model
  • Faculty-Centric Model of Instruction
  • The Rainbow Loom Story
  • The Future Role of Faculty
  • Creating Environments
  • Working with Others
  • Conducting Research on
  • Learning Outcomes

55
The Key Issue How do we educate more students,
with greater learning outcomes, at lower costs?
56
Focus on Innovative Teaching (and learning)
57
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58
Science Classes The Carl Wieman Science
Education Initiative Three strategies 1.
Reducing cognitive load 2. Addressing beliefs 3.
Stimulating and guiding thinking

http//www.cwsei.ubc.ca/
Experiment produced two times the learning
outcomes Deslauriers, Schelew, and Wieman.
Science. 13 May 2011, pp. 862 864.
59
Flipped Courses The flipped course. You do
homework by watching lectures. You go to class
to work on problems together. Khan Academy
2,400 videos covering everything from arithmetic
to physics, finance, and history. Khan lessons
viewed by more than 4 million people a month.
http//www.khanacademy.org/
60
Open Learning Initiative (OLI)
Carnegie Mellon University

http//oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/index.php Tea
m content specialist cognitive
scientist instructional designer
graphic designer OLI-Statistics
students learned a full semesters worth of
material in half as much time and performed as
well or better than students learning from
traditional instruction over a full
semester. http//oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/pub
lications/71-effectiveness-statistics0
61
  • Math Emporiums
  • Higher Educations Silver Bullet Carol Twigg
    http//www.changemag.org/Archives/Back20Issues/20
    11/May-June202011/math-emporium-full.html
  • 3 Keys To Success
  • Interactive computer software
  • Personalized on-demand assistance
  • Mandatory Student Participation

62
What About Online v. Face-To-Face?
A very old, very tired
debate.. Only evidence will end this argument
(or maybe not)
63
No Significant Difference 355 research reports,
summaries and papers that document no significant
differences (NSD) in student outcomes between
alternate modes of education delivery. http//www.
nosignificantdifference.org/
SRI Study http//www2.ed.gov/rschstat/eval/tech/ev
idence-based-practices/finalreport.pdf
Ithaka Study http//www.sr.ithaka.org/research-pub
lications/interactive-learning-online-public-unive
rsities-evidence-randomized-trials
64
March 13, 2015 The most methodologically rigorous
studies in this review join a growing list of
similarly rigorous research finding that students
in online and hybrid formats perform about as
well as their counterparts in face-to-face
sections. Online Learning in Postsecondary
Education. A Review of the Empirical Literature
(2013-2014). See more at http//sr.ithaka.org/r
esearch-publications/online-learning-postsecondary
-educationsthash.9gkkpcF0.dpuf
65
Massive Study University of Central Florida
type n Fall 09 Spring 10 Summer 10 Fall 10 Spring11 Summer 11
Blended 56,316 91 91 91 90 90 94
Online 150,834 87 88 88 88 88 89
Face to face 665,209 87 88 88 87 87 91
Lecture Capture 12,050 87 83 86 84 84 79
Student Success by Modality in percentage of
grade C or higher
only in very rare cases is the modality of a
course the primary reason for success.
Analytics That Inform the University Using Data
You Already Have. Charles Dziuban, Patsy Moskal,
Thomas Cavanagh, Andre Watts Journal of
Asynchronous Learning Networks, v16 n3 p21-38 Jun
2012
66
However, what has been shown is that mode is not
an effective predictor of success or withdrawal
in courses. The strongest predictor of success is
previous academic performance (Dziuban, 2011).
Historically, students who have done well in
courses do well in any mode a course is a course.
Charles Dziuban. Teaching and Learning in an
Evolving Educational Environment Emory
University. www.youtube.com/watch?vJwratsdxrH8
67
January 2015 Study presented at the American
Economic Association. Finds that increases in
online class size have no impact on student
grades, student persistence in the course or the
likelihood of students enrolling in future
courses. https//www.insidehighered.com/news/201
5/01/05/study-finds-no-impact-increasing-class-siz
e-student-outcomes.
68
Blended Courses Blended (hybrid) courses combine
fact-to-face classroom instruction with online
learning and reduced classroom contact hours
(reduced seat time) Charles Dziuban, Joel
Hartman, Patsy Moskal. Blended Learning.
EDUCAUSE. 2004 http//net.educause.edu/ir/library
/pdf/ERB0407.pdf
69
  • Broad Course Re-Design
  • George Kuh High Impact Practices
  • First-year seminars and experiences
  • Common intellectual experiences
  • Learning communities
  • Writing-intensive courses
  • Collaborative assignments and projects
  • Undergraduate research
  • Diversity/global learning
  • Service learning, community-based learning
  • Internships
  • Capstone courses and projects
  • George Kuh. High-Impact Educational Practices
  • What They Are, Who Has Access to Them, and Why
    They Matter.
  • AACU, 2008.
  • Ensuring Quality Taking High Impact Practices
    to Scale.

70
And challenge old assumptions whos college
ready? A simple example college algebra Are
students not prepared? Or are we the ones who
are not ready? Carnegie Foundation for the
Advancement of Teaching Statways and Quantways
71
Success for At-Risk Students
University of Texas Chemistry 301 David
Laude Took 50 students with risk indicators
Low SAT, low income, first generation (200
points lower on SAT) Separate class, special
interventions Extra class hours, mentorsand
high expectations. Outcome Same grades as
large section Higher overall graduation rate 3
years later http//www.nytimes.com/
2014/05/18/magazine/who-gets-to-graduate.html
72
  • Then UT did a major intervention. All entering
    first year students did a 45 minute online
    activity, divided into four groups
  • Belonging
  • Mind-Set
  • Belonging and Mind-Set
  • Bland
  • After one semester
  • Advantaged students no difference
  • Disadvantaged students Moved from 81 on track
    to 86 on track
  • Who Gets to Graduate? Paul Tough. The New York
    Times Magazine.
  • May 15, 2014.

73
Prior Learning and Competencies Prior Learning
Assessments Council on Adult and Experiential
Learning (CAEL) New Competency-based
Degrees Southern New Hampshire
University Northern Arizona University Western
Governors University Competency-based Hybrid
Degrees Badges Khan Academy
Certifications Cisco Mozilla
CLA Pearson
74
Personalization
  • The capacity of software and systems to tailor
    course materials, learning processes, and
    approaches to the unique circumstances of
    individual learners.
  • Individual characteristics
  • Learning style
  • Memory decay
  • Pacing
  • Obstacles or misunderstandings

75
So what are the take-aways from this set of
ideas? What are some lessons?
76
  • In a world of constant change, it seems to me
    that you must
  • Embrace change
  • Challenge every practice
  • Provide a safe environment for experimentation
    and failure

77
Focus laser-like attention on learning outcomes
78
The challenge is enormous. We have a confusion
of purposes, distorted reward structures, limited
success, high costs, massive inefficiencies, and
profound resistance to change.
79
This is not simply a difficult moment for higher
education it is the dawn of a very different
era. The institutions that will succeedindeed,
thrivein this era will be those that constantly
innovate.
80
Cautionary Tale The Eastman Kodak
Company Eastman Kodak invented the digital
camera, held much of the intellectual capital
(patents) for photography, and at one point owned
95 of the photography business in the world.
Ultimately, Eastman Kodak ceased to be a
photography business, and failed, because it
could not adapt to a new world. Is This
Something George Eastman Would Have Done? The
Decline and Fall of Eastman Kodak Company. Paul
Snyder. 2013.
81
Edward Deming, the great management guru, said
It is not necessary to change.
Survival is optional.




82
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83
Further Readings Dungeons and Dragons
Prisoners of Our Own Beliefs Tyrannized by
Mythical Beasts. Gardner Institute Academic
Affairs/Student Affairs Conference. Orlando,
Florida. January 17, 2014. Challenge and
Change. EDUCAUSE Review. (vol. 47, no. 5.
September/ October 2012). http//www.educause.edu/
ero/article/challenge-and-change. Medieval
Models, Agrarian Calendars, and 21st Century
Imperatives. Teacher Scholar. Volume 2 Number 1
(Fall 2010).
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