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Sustainable forest management in a changing climate

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Title: Slide 1 Author: Jay Malcolm Last modified by: The Senate of Canada Created Date: 3/30/2003 1:43:02 AM Document presentation format: On-screen Show – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Sustainable forest management in a changing climate


1
Sustainable forest management in a changing
climate
  • Jay R. Malcolm
  • Faculty of Forestry
  • University of Toronto
  • April 2003

2
Background
  • causal connection between increasing greenhouse
    gas concentrations and recent warming
  • magnitude of potential warming in the coming
    century is enormous from an ecological viewpoint
  • hundreds of species are showing responses
    already
  • very high confidence that anthropogenic
    climate change is already affecting living
    systems

3
Using coupled GCMs and GVMs to investigate
potential ecological changes
4
Current Climate (GVM MAPSS)
Doubled-CO2 Climate (Hadley Centre, with
sulphate aerosol cooling) (GVM MAPSS)
5
Biome change for
14 combinations of GCMs and GVMs
Percent of Models
6
Ecosystem change, but also the outright loss of
certain ecosystem types
7
Implications of habitat loss for species
diversity
Current area (ab) vs. future area (bc)
8
Global estimate of species loss based on 14
CGMs/GVMs
Area Percent area under 2xCO2 Percent species loss
Tundra 8.5 50.0 -9.9
Taiga/Tundra 7.0 43.9 -11.6
Boreal Conifer Forest 12.9 102.8
Temperate Evergreen Forest 7.8 106.6
Temperate Mixed Forest 9.3 147.9
Tropical Broadleaf Forest 14.8 120.8
Savanna/Woodland 28.2 103.6
Shrub/Woodland 7.4 78.3 -3.6
Grassland 22.7 114.4
Arid Lands 14.2 80.3 -3.2
9
  • Implications for forested ecosystems
  • Regional disappearances of certain forest
    types/working groups (e.g., Spruce-fir forests
    disappeared and maple-beech-birch forests showed
    near extirpation in eastern U.S. under doubled
    CO2 Iverson Prasad 1998, 2001, 2002)
  • Shifts of species ranges by 100-500 km,
    including commercially important species

    (e.g., Sugar maple, balsam fir,
    trembling aspen, and red pine reduced by more
    than 90 in eastern U.S. under doubled CO2
    Iverson Prasad 1998, 2001, 2002)
  • Increasing stress as climate conditions change,
    with increased vulnerability to diseases and
    pests
  • Increased probability of fire
  • Potential for increased growth provided that
    enough water is available

    (if insufficient water is
    available, potential to exacerbate drought
    conditions)
  • Increased emphasis on forests as carbon sinks
    (increase sequestration and decrease losses from
    soil)

10
  • Economic implications
  • little or net positive impacts on timber markets
    in the United States (e.g., between -1 and 11
    Perez-Garcia et al. 1997, Sohngen Mendelsohn
    1998).
  • however, assumed appropriate adaptive responses
  • -e.g., Sohngen Mendelsohn (1998) practices on
    intensive lands would rapidly establishing
    appropriate species lags on low-intensity lands
    only 10-30 years.
  • -understanding of likely tree responses is key
    because changes in forest growth and productivity
    will constrain the choices of adaptation
    strategies
  • -promotion of appropriate regeneration through
    planting (shortens period of stand establishment
    when C accumulation is low and soil C losses are
    relatively high)
  • -planting of genetically modified species or
    specific ecotypes
  • -development of silvicultural systems that
    maintain forest vigour
  • -important among these strategies are those that
    facilitate species migration, either through
    artificial or natural means

11
Potential importance of migration
  • planting has not been successful in many cases
    even in the absence of climate change
  • if migration fails to make up for
    warming-induced local losses of species, a net
    decline in forest biomass and local diversity can
    be expected (e.g., 7-11 increase in global
    forest carbon under perfect migration 3-4
    decline under zero migration Solomon Kirilenko
    1997)
  • natural migration is especially important in
    situations where natural regeneration is used as
    a management tool
  • artificial migration (e.g., planting) not useful
    for great majority of forest species (In this
    sense, the conservation of biological diversity
    as a goal in sustainable forest management could
    be threatened by climate change)

12
Implications of habitat loss for species
diversity no migration scenario
Current area (ab) vs. future area (b only)
13
Implications of habitat loss for species
diversity no migration scenario
Area Percent area under 2xCO2 Percent species loss
Tundra 8.5 45.0 -11.3
Taiga/Tundra 7.0 14.7 -25.0
Boreal Conifer Forest 12.9 54.1 -8.8
Temperate Evergreen Forest 7.8 47.8 -10.5
Temperate Mixed Forest 9.3 73.4 -4.5
Tropical Broadleaf Forest 14.8 92.0 -1.2
Savanna/Woodland 28.2 74.2 -4.4
Shrub/Woodland 7.4 51.2 -9.6
Grassland 22.7 79.1 -3.4
Arid Lands 14.2 69.7 -5.3
14
How do future rates compare with past rates?
Migration rate distance time period
15
How do future rates compare with past rates?
16
Percent of 14 models showing high rates
(gt1,000 m/yr)
Finland (1st place) 59.9 Canada (8th)
33.1 U.K. (13th) 29.8
17
Future rates compared with Spruce post-glacial
rates
18
Making future rates agree with post-glacial rates
19
Making future rates agree with post-glacial rates
20
Barriers to migration
21
Barriers to migration
22
Barriers to migration
23
Southern Red Oak
Current range (black line) and potential future
range (CCC)
Colonized future range assuming post-glacial
capabilities
Iverson, Schwartz, and Prasad (in prep.)
24
Percentage of new suitable habitat colonized in
100 yrs assuming postglacial migration rates
Climate Scenario Prob. Coloniz. S. Red Oak Sourwood Sweetgum Persimmon Loblolly
CCC gt2 7.6 12.7 11.6 2.7 8.4
CCC gt20 2.0 2.4 2.2 0.8 1.5
CCC gt50 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.6
HAD gt2 11.5 8.2 14.7 3.8 9.9
HAD gt20 4.1 2.2 5.1 1.3 3.2
HAD gt50 2.5 0.9 3.0 0.9 1.6
25
  • Conclusions
  • Potential migration rates appear to be
    unprecedented by historical standards
  • Less vigorous, lower biomass weedy forests,
    with lower diversity
  • Most important strategy is to reduce emissions
    not clear that adaptation per se is viable
    (clearly not in the arctic)
  • Potentially greater economic impacts where
    reliance on natural regeneration is higher and
    adaptive responses are more limited (e.g., Canada
    vs. United States)
  • Focus on facilitating migration (which is
    intrinsically limited) by maintaining and
    restoring functional connectivity in landscapes

26
Central Labrador
27
Sugar Maple facilitating natural migration
Potential migration contribution of current
populations to new distribution (average distance
to new distribution)
Current (1961-1990) and future (2040-2069)
28
i j SS pij
29
  • Conclusions
  • Potential migration rates appear to be
    unprecedented by historical standards
  • Less vigorous, lower biomass weedy forests,
    with lower diversity
  • Most important strategy is to reduce emissions
    not clear that adaptation per se is viable
    (clearly not in the arctic)
  • Potentially greater economic impacts where
    reliance on natural regeneration is higher and
    adaptive responses are more limited (e.g., Canada
    vs. United States)
  • Focus on facilitating migration (which is
    intrinsically limited) by maintaining and
    restoring functional connectivity in landscapes
  • Research focus on more than just carbon
    (regional climate models, comprehensive
    information on tree and other species
    distributions, correlative and process-based
    approaches)
  • Wake-up call for the forest industry, which is
    geared towards harvesting of primary forests
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