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Developing Leader for Change

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Title: Developing Leader for Change


1
Developing Leader for Change Innovation in
Tourism
  • 28th June 2010

2
Future Industry Trends, Creative Thinking and
Innovation
  • Tom Baum PhD
  • University of Strathclyde, Glasgow

3
INTRODUCTIONS
4
Youse (as we say in Glasgow) are .
5
. and me
  • 30 years in tourism as practitioner, academic,
    researcher and teacher
  • Currently Professor in the Strathclyde Business
    School, top-rated in Scotland and top 10 in the
    UK
  • On-site experience in over 30 countries
  • Special research and development interest in HR/
    work in tourism and in..

6
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7
Greatly influenced by.
8
Tourism and small island communities
  • Particular dynamics of tourism in an island
    context
  • The appeal of islands
  • Issues of access and supply psychological,
    economic, logistical
  • Competitive barriers
  • Cultural distinctiveness
  • Jurisdictional independence

9
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10
  • Key Concepts and Learning in this Module
  • Understanding future trends and developments in
    international tourism
  • Harnessing strategic planning tools as a means of
    maximising the benefits of this understanding
  • Planning and implementing creative/ innovative
    strategies and solutions in order to enhance
    business competitiveness

10
11
  • Programme Overview
  • SESSION 1
  • Tourism a future scan utilizing the tools
  • SESSION 2
  • Finding and applying creative/ innovative
    solutions

11
12
  • Thinking about the future.. And learning from
    the past

13
The Future
  • The future is inherently unpredictable
  • The purpose of planning is not to predict the
    future but to increase the possibility space for
    the organisation
  • The future is co-created
  • We are neither passive victims of forces beyond
    our control nor masters of our destiny

14
Wind the clock back 10, even 20, years ..What
we DID NOT know
  • List a few ideas/ things/ ways of doing things
    that have entered our lives over the last 10
    years.
  • IF you are old enough, do the same for 20 years
    ago.

15
Maybe..
16
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17
Annual reportTEN IMPORTANT WORLD TOURISM ISSUES
2011
  • David L. Edgell Sr., PhD
  • Professor of Tourism, East Carolina University
  • Ex-US Department of Commerce responsible for
    Travel and Tourism

18
  • Repercussions from the global economic slowdown
    on tourism
  •  Continuous concern for safety and security with
    respect to tourism
  •  Significance of sustainability in the
    development and management of tourism
  •  Effect on tourism from natural and manmade
    disasters
  •  Growth in the use of electronic and other
    technologies in tourism

19
  • Impact on tourism with the introduction of new
    destinations
  • Importance of fuel costs on tourism
  • Influence of mega events on tourism
  • Using strategic tourism policy and planning tools
    for communities and nations
  • Recognition of increased tourism activity in the
    East Asia and Pacific Region

20
  • Interpreting these in the Maltese context?
  • Your main themes
  • Access routes and options, all year round
  • Fuel price impacting on access
  • Market dependence on UK need to develop new
    markets (Far East)
  • Develop internal, domestic markets
  • Need to develop higher spend niches

21
  • Creation of a year round destination address
    seasonality
  • Need to upgrade product and focus on quality
  • Dealing with change and new challenges
  • Maximizing Impact
  • Monitoring performance
  • Managing Information
  • Utilise social networks to best effect

22
  • Climate change impacts source markets and at
    home
  • Rising sea levels
  • Worldwide recession and lower spending visitors
  • Understanding the tourists of 2015 and 2020 Gen
    Y
  • New competing markets Libya
  • Increasingly demanding customers

23
  • Development of ecotourism options issue of
    awareness?
  • Future of traditional distribution models
    travel agents/ tour operators who will we be
    dealing with?
  • Growth in demand for marine tourism

24
  • What is required is a strategic approach to the
    identification and analysis of future trends

25
The GoalTo increase awareness about the
organisation, its environment and the future.
The future
Scenarios (Imagining the future)
Strategic options (Exploring our future
possibilities)
Increasing awareness
The business ecosystem
The organisation
Co-evolution (Discovering our place
relationships)
26
Maltas tourism
  • Culture
  • What are the patterns of thinking behaviour
    which characterise tourism in Malta?
  • Is change needed?
  • Competencies
  • What is tourism in Malta distinctively good at?
  • Do these give competitive advantage?
  • What needs to be developed?

27
Your organisation or area of responsibility
  • Culture
  • What are the patterns of thinking behaviour
    which characterise your organisation or area of
    responsibility?
  • Is change needed?
  • Competencies
  • What is your organisation or area of
    responsibility distinctively good at?
  • Do these give competitive advantage?
  • What needs to be developed?

28
An Ecosystem for Malta or your organisation
29
Mapping the ecosystem
  • PEST (Political, Economic, Socio-cultural.
    Technological) plus E - Environmental
  • Customers
  • Markets
  • Competitors who are your main competitors?
  • Business or Destination analysis? Competition or
    coopetition?
  • Porters Five Forces

30
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31
Strategic optionsOur future possibilities
  • Key strategic issues
  • What are the real areas which affect our
    business?
  • (E.g. service, channel, market)
  • Formulate key decision areas
  • Where do decisions need to be made?
  • Create clusters of options
  • Discover coherent strategies
  • Check against distinctive competencies

32
Scenario PLANNINGImagining the future
  • Identify key driving forces
  • Choose most uncertain/most significant
  • Develop alternatives
  • Flesh out with narrative

33
Planning is not about
  • Planning is not about predicting the future
  • Planning is not about writing a detailed road map
    into the future
  • Planning is not about a few people writing a
    vision statement then getting buy-in from
    everyone else

34
EU Project
  • Comprehensive sectoral analysis of
  • emerging competencies and economic
  • activities in the European Union

35
Potential of drivers of change
  • New lifestyles and consumer trends (eg. concerns
    about health, climate, environment, convenience
    etc.)
  • Food prices
  • Economic development and globalisation
  • ICT and digitalisation
  • Strengthened legislation on food safety
  • Food technologies Preparation, cooling and
    storing
  • The ageing population
  • Climate changes

36
Classification of drivers
IMPORTANT
  • Economic development and globalisation
  • The ageing population
  • New lifestyles and consumer trends (eg. concerns
    about health and environment, convenience etc.)
  • ICT and digitalisation

CERTAIN
UNCERTAIN
  • Food prices
  • Strengthened legislation on food safety
  • Climate changes (actual climate changes will not
    influence the sector much until 2020. In the long
    run climate changes might result in dramatic
    changes in the sector)
  • Food technologies Preparation, cooling and
    storing

LESS IMPORTANT
37
Main drivers of change
  • Main/most important drivers of change
  • The ageing population of Europe
  • New lifestyles and consumer demands
  • Increased use of ICT and the Internet
  • General economic development and
    Internationalisation

38
Driver an ageing population
  • Consumers will be older in the future and older
    tourists require more specialised services, among
    others due to disabilities.
  • An ageing population means an ageing workforce.
    This is important in the sector, since its
    workforce today consists mostly of young workers.
  • When it comes to catering and canteens the ageing
    population will mean a potential growth in their
    integrated services, which increasingly include
    elderly care.

39
Driver new lifestyles
Customers are becoming more and more enlightened
and demanding when it comes to health, climate,
environment and politics
  • For restaurants, cafés and bars healthy menus and
    traceability of foodstuff as an example -
    becomes more important and require staff to be
    knowledgeable in that aspect
  • For hotels it means giving its customers a
    full-time experience including for example spas
    and professional health-guiding
  • Within catering, snacking increases while
    simultaneously diminishing the demand for
    traditional heavy lunches

40
Driver Increased use of ICT
The increased use of ICT and the internet has
had, and still has, a great impact on the Hotels
and restaurants sector.
  • For the companies it means greater possibilities
    to market themselves and to receive customers
    from areas far beyond the neighbourhood.
  • In the coming years, supply chains and
    administration will increasingly be handled
    online.
  • For the customers it means greater possibilities
    in finding Hotels and restaurants and catering
    establishments online, and the ability to be
    pickier.

41
Driver general economic development
The general economic situation is of utmost
importance for the Hotels and restaurants sector,
which is often highly dependent on the tourism
economy.
  • Economic development
  • When people have more money they tend to spend
    more on travelling and dining out. Also, their
    demands for quality and uniqueness rise.
  • An economic recession, on the other hand, will
    result in decreased demand and a higher focus on
    price and value for money.
  • Internationalisation
  • Internationalisation means increased
    opportunities for attracting new customers from
    outside Europe but also growing competition.
  • Internationalisation means a growing dominance of
    big cooperations and international brands and
    chains in the sector.

42
SWOT analysis
Strengths Non-substitutable People will never stop travel or eat. An open sector The sector creates job opportunities for young people and for women. Also, people with limited education can get the opportunity to a career. It is a global industry with highly international markets Due to its labour intensive and customer close nature it cannot be exported or outsourced It is a flexible industry which relatively easy handles changes. Opportunities The ageing population could be a boost for the catering sub-sector. Changes in the gender structures, more women entering the labour market means less time to cook at home. The trend of higher demands on quality could add value to the sector. Concerns for climate and health are also trends potentially adding value to products and services. Increased globalisation leading to more international travellers and tourists especially from emerging economies. Being increasingly on the move we need more snacking and take away
Weaknesses High dependency on tourists, which are highly sensitive to political events. High seasonal dependency for most parts of the sector. Tend to be reactive instead of proactive Low productivity Low profit margins and low added value Low levels of skills and educations among employees Reluctance to invest in its employees e.g. training, education, working conditions etc Perceived to be a low status employment sector Low barrier sector- many star ups and failures pressing profit margins (50-60 of all start ups ends as failures after 3 years) Threats The black market is a threat to working conditions, and to the sectors competitiveness when it comes to recruiting skilled staff. The lack of sufficiently skilled personnel jeopardises the quality of the sector. With the climate threat, long distance travelling might decrease. An ageing population makes it even harder to recruit labour The educational system is ageing and might risk the quality of the sector. There is a trend to invest less in food for employees. Terrorism and political unrest
43
Questions for discussions
  • General comments Do you agree on the drivers
    identified as being the main drivers of change?
  • What is the major threat as well as the major
    opportunity for the main sub-sectors of tourism
    in Malta (hotels, travel services, attractions)
    in the coming years?
  • What is the major threat as well as the major
    opportunity for YOUR BUSINESS in the coming
    years?

44
Crossing drivers of change
Economic growth and globalisation The ongoing
economic crisis is just a minor and short
economic slow down. With such a positive economic
development increased globalisation will follow.
Escapism Consumption is typically driven by the
faster, better, bigger ideology. Climate
problems for example are not seen as a personal
responsibility. The escapists are concerned
about health and the fairness of the world but
tend to escape via wellness and traditional
luxury.
Puritanism Consumers will develop a more puritan
and spiritual approach to consumption. The
personal responsibility concerning for example
health, environment, climate and fair trade is
taken very serious. Saving before spending
becomes more important.
Economic recession and nationalism A recession
will influence the society for the next 10-12
years. It will result in increased nationalism
and regionalism where regions and nations turn
their back to global cooperation concentrating on
their own lack of resources.
45
The four scenarios
Continued economic growth and globalisation
Scenario 1 The Marco Polo Scenario
Scenario 3 The Body Shop Scenario
Puritanism
Escapism
Scenario 2 The Sunny Beach Scenario
Scenario 4 The Asceticism Scenario
Economic recession and nationalism
46
Characteristics of the four
Continued economic growth and globalisation
  • The Marco Polo Scenario
  • High individualisation
  • Some specialisation possibilities
  • Polarisation of the market
  • High growth in inbound tourism
  • Wellness and traditional luxury
  • The Body Shop Scenario
  • High individualisation
  • Many specialisation possibilities
  • Segmentation of the market
  • Healthy lifestyle and holidays
  • Goodness volunteering, fair trade, organic
    food, etc.

Escapism
Puritanism
  • The Sunny Beach Scenario
  • Mass produce, economies of scale
  • Highly price driven market
  • Conformity
  • Comfort but no luxury
  • Regionalisation of travelling
  • The Ascetism Scenario
  • Basic living simple holidaying
  • Close-to-home tourism
  • Experiences healthy, sustainable and cheap
  • Food vegetarian, organic, local produce,
    simple

Economic recession and nationalism
47
The Marco Polo Scenario
48
The Body Shop Scenario
49
The Sunny Beach Scenario
50
The Ascetism Scenario
51
  • The Marco Polo Scenario The Body Shop Scenario
  • The Sunny Beach Scenario The Ascetism Scenario
  • Maltas future?
  • What needs to be done?
  • How would you and your business cope with each of
    these?

52
  • Strategic tools to enable us to more effective
    analyse and respond to external change in
    hospitality and tourism here weve used
  • A. PEST
  • B. SWOT

53
What is PEST Analysis?
  • This analysis is essential for an organization
    before beginning its marketing process
  • Consists of internal environment and external
    environment

54
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55
SUMMARY
Political/ Legal Economic Socio-cultural Technological
Environmental regulations and protection Economic growth Income distribution Government research spending
Tax policies Interest rates monetary policies Demographics, Population growth rates, Age distribution Industry focus on technological effort
International trade regulations and restrictions Government spending Labor / social mobility New inventions and development
Contract enforcement law Consumer protection Unemployment policy Lifestyle changes Rate of technology transfer
Employment laws Taxation Work/career and leisure attitudes Entrepreneurial spirit Life cycle and speed of technological obsolescence
Government organization / attitude Exchange rates Education Energy use and costs
Competition regulation Inflation rates Fashion, hypes (Changes in) Information Technology
Political Stability Stage of the business cycle Health consciousness welfare, feelings on safety (Changes in) Internet
Safety regulations Consumer confidence Living conditions (Changes in) Mobile Technology
56
Role of PEST
  • Helps assess the market including competitors
    from the stand point of a particular business or
    from a destination perspective.
  • PEST is relevant for any type of business or
    destination whether large, small medium.

57
S.W.O.T. Analysis
Factors Internal to Organization
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
Threats
Factors External to Organization
58
SWOT
  • A SWOT analysis generates information that is
    helpful in matching an organization or groups
    goals, programs, and capacities to the social
    environment in which it operates.
  • Factors internal to the firm usually can be
    classified as strengths (S) or weaknesses (W),
    and those external to the firm can be classified
    as opportunities (O) or threats (T).
  • It is an instrument within strategic planning.
  • When combined with dialogue it is a participatory
    process

59
Simple Rules for SWOT Analysis
  • Be realistic about the strengths and weaknesses
    of your organization or group.
  • Distinguish between where your organization is
    today, and where it could be in the future
  • Be specific Avoid gray areas.
  • Always analyze in relation to your core mission.
  • Keep your SWOT short and simple. Avoid complexity
    and over analysis
  • Empower SWOT with a logical conceptual framework.

60
Future of Travel Dr Patrick Dixon
  • http//www.youtube.com/watch?vL1C1chw1I4U

61
Applying Dixon to Malta
  • To the destination?
  • To your business?

62
  • Thank You!
  • Discussion
  • .
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