NESDEC K-12 Enrollment Projections 2014-15 through 2018-19 November 12, 2013

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NESDEC K-12 Enrollment Projections2014-15
through 2018-19November 12, 2013
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NESDEC Enrollment Assumptions

• The rate of housing growth.
• The number of homes sold.
• From 2015-2020, home sales will gradually
  increase.
• The Meadowood Development will be completed by
  the end of the decade.
• The final Powder Forest units will be
  constructed.
• Residential permitting has increased.
• Sales, thus far, appear to be stronger.

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Table I October 1 Enrollment History 2009-10
through 2013-14

• K-12 5-year decline of 508 students.
• K-6 5-year decline of 362 students.
• 7-8 5-year decline of 100 students.
• 9-12 5-year decline of 46 students.
• 5-year staffing reduction of 40.7 FTE.

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Comments Grade Configurations
Comments K-12 K-12 Enrollment projected to decrease by 77 students for 2014-15 Projected to decline by 415 students by 2018-19 or 9.6 Comments Grades 7-8 7-8 Enrollment projected to remain stable for 2014-15 Projected to decline by 139 students by 2018-19 or 19.1
Comments K-6 K-6 Enrollment projected to decrease by 26 students for 2014-15 Projected to decline 95 students by 2018-19 or 4.5 Comments Grades 9-12 9-12 Enrollment projected to decline by 51 students for 2014-15 Projected to decline by 181 students by 2018-19 or 11.8
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Central School Projections

• Central School is projected to decrease by 5
  students or 1.4 in 2014. Five-year projections
  indicate a decrease of 16 students or 4.3.

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Latimer Lane Projections

• Latimer Lane School is projected to decrease by 8
  students or 1.9 in 2014. Five-year projections
  indicate a decrease of 24 students or 5.7.

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Squadron Line Projections

• Squadron Line School is projected to increase by
  3 students or less than 1 in 2014. Five-year
  projections indicate a decrease of 53 students or
  8.7.

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Tariffville Projections

• Tariffville School is projected to increase by 10
  students or 3.6 in 2014. Five-year projections
  indicate an increase of 16 students or 5.8.

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Tootin Projections

• Tootin Hills School is projected to decrease by
  26 students or 6.5 in 2014. Five-year
  projections indicate a decrease of 17 students or
  4.3.

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Henry James Memorial Projections

• Henry James Memorial School is projected to
  maintain the same enrollment for 2014. Five-year
  projections indicate a decrease of 139 students
  or 19.1.

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Simsbury High Projections

• Simsbury High School is projected to decrease by
  51 students or 3.3 in 2014. Five-year
  projections indicate a decrease of 181 students
  or 11.8.

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Births/Enrollment ComparisonKindergarten
Enrollment 2009-10 through 2018-19 compared to
Birth Year 2004 - 2013

• Over past 7 years, 125 kindergarteners for every
  100 births have registered.
• In the fall of 2013, 138 kindergarteners for
  every 100 births registered representing the 3rd
  highest ratio in over a decade.

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Conclusions

• 2013 NESDEC projections suggest that K-12 student
  enrollment will decrease an average of 83
  students per year for the next 5 years.
• October 1, 2013 enrollment of 4330 is expected to
  decrease to 3915 students in 2018-19.
• As the economy and real estate situations
  improve, we can anticipate stronger in-migration
  that may affect current patterns indicating
  decline in enrollment over 10 years.
• A 13.6 K-1 in-migration ratio appears to be
  accurate for the foreseeable future.
• Facilities Enrollment Study Task Force will
  revisit the continuation of modular removal plan
  and any different/additional action necessary in
  response to the projected decrease in enrollment.

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NESDEC K-12 Enrollment Projections2014-15
through 2018-19November 12, 2013