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Real-time WRF EnKF

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Real-time WRF EnKF 36km outer domain/4km nested domain D2 (4km) D1 (36km) Real-time WRF EnKF 3-hr update cycle for both domains (runs 8 times daily) Digital filter ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Real-time WRF EnKF


1
Real-time WRF EnKF
  • 36km outer domain/4km nested domain

D2 (4km)
D1 (36km)
2
Real-time WRF EnKF
  • 3-hr update cycle for both domains (runs 8 times
    daily)
  • Digital filter initialization performed on both
    domains (reduces noise)
  • Bias removal on 4km domain
  • Analysis and hourly forecast output saved on both
    domains (analysis,1,2,3-hr forecast)
  • 80 members on 36km, 42 members on 4km

3
Real-time WRF EnKF
  • 3000 surface observations available for
    assimilation on 4-km domain (75 of all
    observations after terrain check)
  • 1500 observations assimilated, 1500 for
    verification
  • Assimilation of radiosonde, cloud-track wind, and
    ACARS data still occurs on both domains

Terrain Height (m)
36-km
4-km
4
Real-time WRF EnKF
  • Runtime for full 36km/4km 3-hr cycle 258
  • Improvements in near future (month)
  • 1) Surface background variance inflation
  • 2) Faster processors
  • 3) Reduced latency
  • 3) Real-time graphics on web
  • Analysis and forecast verification with GFS, NAM,
    RUC, 4km GFS-WRF coming soon!

5
Real-time WRF EnKF
  • Very early results (before bias removal)
  • Analysis RMS errors against unassimilated
    observations
  • 4km GFS-WRF 4km WRF
    EnKF
  • Sfc Temperature 2.84 K
    2.34 K
  • Sfc Wind 2.03 m/s
    2.02 m/s
  • As was the case with the 12km runs, bias
    removal and variance inflation is expected to
    further improve analyses

6
Real-time WRF EnKF
36km Mean
4km Mean
Near-surface Windspeed, MSLP
ANALYSIS
7
Real-time WRF EnKF
36km Mean
4km Mean
Near-surface Windspeed, MSLP
01-HR
8
Real-time WRF EnKF
36km Mean
4km Mean
Near-surface Windspeed, MSLP
02-HR
9
Real-time WRF EnKF
36km Mean
4km Mean
Near-surface Windspeed, MSLP
03-HR
10
Real-time WRF EnKF
36km Mean
4km Mean
850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds
ANALYSIS
11
Real-time WRF EnKF
36km Mean
4km Mean
850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds
01-HR
12
Real-time WRF EnKF
36km Mean
4km Mean
850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds
02-HR
13
Real-time WRF EnKF
36km Mean
4km Mean
850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds
03-HR
14
Real-time WRF EnKF
36km Spread
4km Spread
850-hPa Temperature
ANALYSIS
15
Real-time WRF EnKF
36km Spread
4km Spread
850-hPa Temperature
01-HR
16
Real-time WRF EnKF
36km Spread
4km Spread
850-hPa Temperature
02-HR
17
Real-time WRF EnKF
36km Spread
4km Spread
850-hPa Temperature
03-HR
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