Neil Harrison, David James and Kathryn Last

1
The impact of a skills-led qualification on GCSE
attainment the case of ASDAN's Certificate of
Personal Effectiveness Education and Employers
Taskforce 16th October 2012

• Neil Harrison, David James and Kathryn Last

2
Background to CoPE (1)

• Skills-led qualification offered by ASDAN
• Based around modules that promote learning
  through undertaking challenges, Plan-Do-Review
  process and portfolio-building (c.f. Watkins
  2010)
• Modules include Work-Based Learning and
  Enterprise and Vocational Preparation - wider key
  skills run through all modules
• Learner-centred, drawing on personal interests,
  innovative curriculum and mainstream school work

3
Background to CoPE (2)

• Available at Levels 1, 2 and 3
• This study focused on Level 2 usually taken at
  KS4 and currently equivalent to B at GCSE
• Offered across around 1,000 schools, with around
  10,000 young people completing each year
• A wide range of young people take CoPE, though
  pupils with lower measured ability, FSM and
  special educational needs are over-represented

4
Use of CoPE in schools

• We identified two main uses of CoPE
• Thin where used mainly as supplement for
  small minority of young people with disrupted
  education between KS3 and KS4 (e.g. illness,
  absenteeism, disengagement, behavioural issues)
• Wide where used as a more mainstream tool
  either to enhance the curriculum, increase
  motivation or broaden opportunities for
  achievement
• This distinction is based on data, with the
  boundary set at 25 of cohort

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Research method

• Three strand approach
• Analysis of National Pupil Database (NPD)
  statistical analysis of around 500,000 entries
  for cohort completing KS4 in 2010
• Matched pairs quasi-experimental study using
  pairs of learners either taking or not taking
  CoPE, but otherwise similar across eight
  variables
• Case studies research visits to four schools
  (three thin and one wide), with interviews
  with learners, teachers and school managers

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National Pupil Database analysis

• Multilevel binary logistic regression
• Dependent variable is outcome in four variations
• GCSE English pass at grades A to G
• GCSE English pass at grades A to C
• GCSE English pass at grades A or A
• Achieving five GCSEs passes at A to C (inc.
  Eng/Maths)
• Identifies the unique impact of each variable
  while holding others constant
• Accounts for clustering of learners within
  schools and both individual and school level
  variables

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Variables investigated
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NPD findings (1)

• GCSE English pass at A to G
• In both thin and wide schools, taking CoPE is
  associated with a significantly higher likelihood
• Other significant predictors
• Positive KS3 English outcome (L6/7), gender
  (female), ethnicity (BME), ESL (yes), high
  school English and Maths pass rate
• Negative KS3 English outcome (L2/3/4), FSM
  (yes), SEN (yes), KS3 absentee (yes), high
  school deprivation

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NPD findings (2)

• GCSE English pass at A to C
• In wide schools, taking CoPE is associated with
  a significantly higher likelihood
• In thin schools, taking CoPE is associated with
  a significantly lower likelihood
• Other significant predictors
• Positive KS3 English outcome (L6/7), gender
  (female), ethnicity (BME), ESL (yes), high
  school English and Maths pass rate, high school
  deprivation
• Negative KS3 English outcome (L2/3/4), FSM
  (yes), SEN (yes), KS3 absentee (yes)

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GCSE English A to C
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NPD findings (3)

• GCSE English pass at A or A
• In wide schools, taking CoPE has a
  non-significant relationship with the likelihood
  of achieving pass
• In thin schools, taking CoPE is associated with
  a significantly lower likelihood of achieving
  pass
• Other significant predictors
• Positive KS3 English outcome (L6/7), gender
  (female), ethnicity (BME), ESL (yes), high
  school English and Maths pass rate
• Negative KS3 English outcome (L2/3/4), FSM
  (yes), SEN (yes), KS3 absentee (yes)

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NPD findings (4)

• Five GCSE passes at A to C inc Eng/Maths
• In wide schools, taking CoPE is associated with
  a significantly higher likelihood
• In thin schools, taking CoPE is associated with
  a significantly lower likelihood
• Other significant predictors
• Positive KS3 English outcome (L6/7), ethnicity
  (BME), ESL (yes), high school English and Maths
  pass rate, high school deprivation
• Negative KS3 English outcome (L2/3/4), gender
  (female), FSM (yes), SEN (yes), KS3 absentee
  (yes)

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Five GCSEs at A to C (inc. EM)
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Paired sample analysis (1)

• 200 young people completing CoPE in a wide
  school chosen at random from NPD data
• Matched with 200 young people in schools not
  offering CoPE across eight variables
• KS3 outcomes and regular absenteeism during KS3
• Gender, ethnicity, special educational needs and
  English as additional language
• Free school meals and neighbourhood deprivation
• Creates two identical schools for comparison

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Paired sample analysis (2)
GCSE English pass at A to C
132
150
No CoPE
CoPE in wide school
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Paired sample analysis (3)

• Robust quasi-experimental study
• The CoPE school outperformed the non CoPE
  school across all measures
• Mix of significant and non-significant effects
• Average uplift of one-fifth of a grade, but much
  higher for some

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Interpretation of findings

• In thin schools
• CoPE is directed towards learners expected to
  severely underperform relative to KS3 outcomes
• Learners do still underperform in relation to
  achieving A to C grades, but more likely to take
  exams and achieve D or E grades (not F, G or U)
• CoPE perceived to mitigate underperformance
• In wide schools
• CoPE is associated with better A to C pass
  rates, but not achievement of top grades (A to
  A) where subject knowledge vital alongside skills

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Does CoPE work better for some?

• Positive relationship of CoPE stronger for
• Those with special educational needs
• Those receiving free school meals
• Those from minority ethnic communities, including
  those with English as a second/subsidiary
  language
• Suggests specific role for challenging
  educational disadvantage
• No coherent relationship between CoPE and gender

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Why does CoPE work?

• Not possible to examine statistically
• Rich qualitative data from case study schools
• Three possible mechanisms identified
• Transferability of skills from CoPE to GCSEs
  especially written communication
• Increased motivation learners actively enjoy
  CoPE and this engages them with other learning
• Use of wider knowledge and activity base
  increases confidence and self-esteem connects
  school to lived lives

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Why does it matter?

• CoPE is caught up in the current bonfire of the
  vocationals. The loss of official equivalence
  with GCSE will mean schools are much less likely
  to offer CoPE. Thus
• Loss of a learning process that appears to help a
  large number of pupils to gain better GCSEs
  (regarded by some as a prime indicator of labour
  supply skills)
• Loss of explicit work-related opportunities for
  many pupils at the same time as the removal of
  the statutory requirement for WRL