Working groups

1
Working groups
Group Activities Research activities Facilitator/ Group custodian
I 1-3 Demographic changes, poverty and livelihood security Dr. Kanchana Chopra/ Mr. ShilpVerma
II 4-6 Economic growth, Agriculture growth national food security, Dr. T.Shah/ Dr. Mark Giordano
III 7-10 Water accounting, productivity Environmental water demand Mr. A.D.Mohile/ Dr. V. Smakhtin
2
Points for discussion - Drivers

• Global partnerships in decentralized small scale
  projects
• Nature of trade
• Perception of scarcity
• Occupational diversification agriculture
  population
• Diversification of agriculture
• Political stability, legal drivers , financing
• Agriculture water use 80 to 60
• Water saving technology
• Water productivity
• High yielding varieties
• Groundwater irrigation
• International labor mobility
• Hydropower revival
• Water pricing
• Health and life styles (food consumption
  patterns)
• Regional economic structure and growth
• Waste lands and NSA growth
• Valuing Environmental services

3
Points for discussion

• Terms of Reference (TOR) is available for each
  activity
• Introduction, Overall goal, Objectives, Scope,
  Milestone reporting
• Assess the adequacy of the scope, milestone
  reporting of the activity in relation to the
  scenarios and drivers developed in the previous
  session
• Gaps in the TOR in terms of scope and milestones
• Issues that needs to be assessed with respect to
  drivers in different regions
• Data required for the analysis and data sources
• Previous and on going studies conducted in
  relation to drivers and their references
• resources persons (Indian/International
  scientists, NGOs) as knowledge banks or as
  partners for studies

4
Reporting back sessions- Format
Activity 4 Assessing national food security scenarios to 2025/2050, and issues and implications of world food trade, biotech, and modernization
1. Gaps Definition of food security likely too narrow, internal agricultural policy lacking
2. Scope of the activity-Revised version Change definition of food security, add agricultural policy as a driver
Prioritizing the drivers and issues (nationally, regionally) to be studied and putting qualitative and quantitative (if known) for scenarios Prioritizing the drivers and issues (nationally, regionally) to be studied and putting qualitative and quantitative (if known) for scenarios
3. Drivers Description
3.1. Trade environment Towards global free trade (reduction in tariffs, subsidies, is market development allowed) or the other direction
3.2. Technology What is the scope for reducing water use, access to technology-who develops (cgiar?), who gets
3.3 Ag policy What is it/will it be in terms of its impact on the type of agricultural output and the location
3.4 Diversification More or less water needed.
5
Reporting back sessions- Format
Activity - 4
4. Data
5. Data sources
6. Previous studies
7. On going studies (if any)
8. Resource persons
9. Partners (national, International) research institutions, NGOS
10. Milestone report Revised version
6
Reporting back sessions- Format
Activity 5 Assessing future scenarios of rural livlihood and occupational patterns
1. Gaps
2. Scope of the activity-Revised version
Prioritizing the drivers and issues (nationally, regionally) to be studied and putting qualitative and quantitative (if known) for scenarios Prioritizing the drivers and issues (nationally, regionally) to be studied and putting qualitative and quantitative (if known) for scenarios
3. Drivers Description
3.1. Regional differentiation Golden corridors versus hinterlands (Collect data at regional or sub-regional level to analyze)
3.2. Profitability of farming and capital formation Profitability has declined in recent years, what would change that? Capital formation range from 8 to 12 of ag gdp. Incremental capital output ratio of 2 or 3
3.3 Change in rural structure If growth continues at 5, then the population in farming will be less than 10 and rural poverty will no longer be a driver. Possible change in political economy of agricultural support/taxation.

7
Reporting back sessions- Format
Activity - 5
4. Data
5. Data sources
6. Previous studies Dani and Subramaniam Delong
7. On going studies (if any)
8. Resource persons
9. Partners (national, International) research institutions, NGOS
10. Milestone report Revised version
8
Reporting back sessions- Format
Activity 6 Future sources of growth of agriculture in general
1. Gaps
2. Scope of the activity-Revised version Move in front of, or combine with, activity 4
Prioritizing the drivers and issues (nationally, regionally) to be studied and putting qualitative and quantitative (if known) for scenarios Prioritizing the drivers and issues (nationally, regionally) to be studied and putting qualitative and quantitative (if known) for scenarios
3. Drivers Description
3.1. Water/land intensity relationship Will the past relation continue (Elas of gross cropped area goes up from .2 or .6 or down to .1), will groundwater boom continue
3.2. Funding for irrigation Share of public versus private, 50 to 70 Does the micro-irrigation plan work canal renovation, tank renovation
3.3 Institutional change Efficiency (cover designed area or not), intensity
3.4 Power supply 3.5 Technology Is it sufficient for agriculture or not Hybrids/GM go up to 50 Water saving varieties developed
9
Reporting back sessions- Format
Activity - 6
4. Data
5. Data sources
6. Previous studies
7. On going studies (if any)
8. Resource persons
9. Partners (national, International) research institutions, NGOS
10. Milestone report Revised version