THE IMMIGRATION DEBATE

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THE IMMIGRATION DEBATE
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REVISED CLASS SCHEDULE

• May 28 The Immigration Debate
• May 30 The Ebullience of Brazil
• June 04 The Latino Experience in America
• June 06 Review and Study Guide

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GUEST SPEAKER MAY 30

• The Ebullience of Brazil
• Simeon Nichter (UCSD Political Science)
• Ph.D. UC Berkeley
• Fellowships at Stanford, Harvard, and Center for
  Global Development (Washington DC)
• Research political voice of the poor, especially
  in Latin America (and Brazil)

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The Immigration Debate Patterns and Policies

• THE NUMBERS GAME(S)
• Flows
• Stocks
• Proportions
• Costs and benefits
• Rates of assimilation

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Emotional Issues and Political Debates

• Multiculturalism vs. melting pots
• Diversity vs. tradition
• Fairness vs. efficiency

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Numerical Dimensions

• 11 million illegal immigrants in U.S.
• 55-60 from Mexico
• 25 of Mexicos able-bodied male workforce now in
  U.S.
• U.S.-Mexican wage ratio 81 or 101

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Undocumented Immigrants in the United States
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Mexican-Origin Population in United States,
1900-2003
Mx-born (9.9)
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Regional Origin of Mexican Migrants
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Geographical Concentration of Mexican Migrants
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Remittances to Mexico, 1990-2003
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Border Patrol Agents
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Effects of Border Enforcement

• 1. Shifting routes (toward Arizona)
• 2. Increased use of coyotes (smugglers)
• 3. Reduced circularity (more permanent stays)
• 4. More women and families
• 5. Increased loss of life

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• Deaths at the Border
• 2001 528
• 2002 470
• 2003 478
• 2004 460
• 2005 gt 500

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Migration and the Global Economic Crisis

• Context joblessness everywhere
• New entries down (not due to border enforcement,
  since 95 of migrants without papers get through)
• Return migration growing (despite concern in
  Mexico about major increase)
• Net migration from Mexico zero
• Within USA, unemployment among Latino men gt Anglo
  men

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The Range of Policy Choice Legal Migration

• Revise legal quotas
• Revise criteria for entry

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The Range of Policy Choice Illegal Migration

• Strategies for restriction
• Building fences
• Blocking corridors (e.g., Operation Gatekeeper)
• Withdrawing incentives and benefits (e.g., Prop
  187)
• Punishing employers
• Strategies for opening
• Augmenting quotas
• Guest-worker programs
• Eliminating barriers
• Strategies for reduction
• Targeting economic development
• Circulating information
• Additional steps?

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Initiatives on Migration

• Phase 1 The Whole Enchilada (January-September
  11, 2001)
• Phase 2 Focus on Security and Border
  Fortification
• Phase 3 The Second Bush Term
• Temporary amnesty for those here and employed
• Guest-worker program
• Eventual path to citizenship

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OBAMA AND THE GANG OF EIGHT

• Path to citizenship Apply for green card in 10
  years, citizenship 3 years after that pay 1,000
  fine plus back taxes stay employed and learn
  English (faster track for Dream Act youth)
• Border patrol DHS to receive 3 billion for
  improved border security, including use of
  surveillance drones and 3,500 additional agents,
  plus 1.5 billion for fencing. Within 5 years DHS
  must achieve 100 surveillance of border and
  apprehend 90 of illegal crossers in high-risk
  (densely populated) areas
• Skilled workers visas for skilled engineers and
  computer programmers to increase from 65,000 per
  year to 110,00, with an eventual cap as high as
  180,000
• Guest workers new program of 20,000 for
  low-skilled workers, rising to 75,000 by 2019
  limitation on farm workers
• Family visas tighter restrictions on family
  unification point system based on family ties
  and work skills by 2015

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A HIGHLY EDUCATED GUESS

• CIR will pass in Senate with as many as 70 votes
• It will fail in the House by about 7 votes
• Question What might change the odds in the House?

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What Would You Do?