Public Opinion in Ghana: What Ghanaians Think About the Elections, the Economy and Politics

1
Public Opinion in Ghana What Ghanaians Think
About the Elections, the Economy and Politics

• Chris McCarty
• PHC6716
• July 20,2011

2
Introduction

• The Republic of Ghana experienced a series of
  coups since its independence in 1957
• The last was in 1981 by led by Flight Lieutenant
  Jerry Rawlings
• On December 7, 1996 the Republic of Ghana held
  Presidential and Parliamentary elections
• Jerry Rawlings was a candidate
• (Maps courtesy of CIA World Factbook)

3
IFES and survey

• Several donor groups (e.g. USAID) contracted with
  the International Foundation for Election Systems
  (IFES) to
• Create a system for holding an election
• Advertise the election
• Monitor the elections
• Conduct a post-election survey
• The survey population were all Ghanaians 18 or
  older who were eligible to vote
• IFES did not require respondents to be registered
  to vote

4
Main Questions

• Did Ghanaians think the elections were honest?
• What proportion of Ghanaians observed
  irregularities at the polling station?
• Did Ghanaians have faith in their government and
  its various branches?

5
Regions of Ghana

• 10 regions (roughly based on tribal lines)
• One main ethnic group (Ashanti) and several
  smaller groups
• Two main religious groups (69 Christian, 16
  Muslim)
• 10 language groups (excluding English)
• In 1997 many Ghanaians were mono-lingual
  non-English
• Jerry Rawlings was from Volta Region

6
Political issues to consider

• Several political parties, but two main parties
• NPP The party of the Ashanti ethnic group
• Opposition party
• Party of Dr. Kwame Nkrumah, the first president
  and leader of uprising against British in 1957
• NDC The party of Jerry Rawlings, the sitting
  president
• This party was made up largely of people in rural
  non-Ashanto areas
• There were allegations that President Rawlings
  used his office to send resources to non-Ashanti
  areas
• NPP support was strong in Ashanti Region and
  Greater Accra

7
Overview of Sample Design

• Initial target margin of error
• 2 percent for all of Ghana
• 7 percent for each region
• This required about 220 surveys for each region
• Ultimately we decided we could afford 2,300
  interviews for all of Ghana

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Sample Design Census versus Polling Stations

• There had been a recent Census, but most
  Ghanaians did not trust it
• IFES had to build an election system from scratch
• They divided the country into polling regions
  based on their own assessments of population
  concentrations
• They made a concerted effort to register voters
• Ghanaians trusted the voter registration system
  more than the Census
• The decision was to use polling stations as the
  cluster to sample
• Interviewers would conduct 10 interviews per
  polling station
• Since there were no physical descriptions for
  polling areas we used unit committee areas which
  did have a physical description

9
Sample Distribution

• Started with 1,500 respondents
• Randomly selected 150 across all of Ghana
• This was done to ensure a defensible national
  sample
• This is not conventional
• It was decided that over-sampling and weighting
  would be difficult to defend to a country not
  accustomed to surveys
• The number of voters in each polling station
  varied from 50-500
• Polling stations with more voters were given a
  higher probability of selection
• Ashanti and Greater Accra regions had, by far,
  the largest population and therefore received an
  over-sample
• Those regions that did not receive at least 220
  interviews were raised to 220
• This required adding 22 more polling stations

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Sample Design Table
Region Frequency Percent of Sample Percent of registered voters Weight
Ashanti 270 11.7 17.2 1.47
Brong Ahafo 220 9.6 9.8 1.02
Central 220 9.6 8.3 0.86
Eastern 220 9.6 11.4 1.19
Greater Accra 270 11.7 16.9 1.44
Northern 220 9.6 8.7 0.91
Upper East 220 9.6 4.7 0.49
Upper West 220 9.6 2.9 0.30
Western 220 9.6 10.4 1.08
Volta 220 9.6 9.7 1.01
Ghana 2300 100 100 NA

• Ashanti and Greater Accra were (and still are)
  the population centers
• They received an over-sample

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Household and respondent selection

• Sub-contracted with an international survey
  research firm Research International
• They had a local office
• They had been used on other research by staff
  members
• Field supervisors took team to polling station
• The first day they mapped the area indicating all
  households
• If a household was a compound this was broken
  into a set of houses
• A fixed random number sheet told them the order
  they would select the 10 households
• The maps were on the back of the questionairre
  indicating the household
• These had to be turned in
• A set of three interviews per region were
  verified by IFES and the Electoral Commission
  staff
• Within the household all members 18 were
  enumerated and a second list of random numbers
  picked the respondent

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Representation of tribes in sample

• Survey translated into
• English
• Akan (Ashanti)
• Ga
• Ewe
• Dagbani
• Fanti
• Brong

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Comparison of sex distribution between sample and
Voter Registration by region
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Comparison of age distribution between sample and
Voter Registration by region
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Frequency (and percent) of those who observed
dishonest practices
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Conclusion

• Following survey we did a presentation in each of
  the 10 regions
• Overall attendees felt the survey was legitimate
• Most thought the actual vote was honestly
  conducted and honestly counted
• Many did not consider the elections fair because
  they thought Jerry Rawlings misused his position
  to get votes
• Rawlings largely ignored Ashanti region but did
  development projects in rural Ghanaian regions
• This might be considered normal in other
  countries