Update of Stats SA Building Statistics

1
MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING ASSOCIATES Building
Economists Tel [phone] PO Box
7119 Fax [phone] STELLENBOSCH, 7599
E-mail mfa_at_iafrica.com
Update of Stats SA Building Statistics March
2012 Data Dr Johan Snyman Medium-Term
Forecasting Associates STELLENBOSCH 17 May 2012
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Vehicle sales show a V-shaped recovery, with a
U-shaped revival in the case of residential
buildings. In the case of BPP, Mar 2012 data
were somewhat lower than Feb 2012 figures.
3
The trend in the cyclical movements correspond
closely vehicle sales in April 2012 were 9.2
higher than a year ago, with residential BPP 9
higher y-o-y in Mar 2012 .
4
The year-on-year improvement in the annual
percentage change of the number of houses
(left-hand scale) is currently 19, pointing to a
revival, with interest rates still at low levels
(right-hand scale inverted). Comparative base
effects can explain the improvement in the BPP
indicator
5
The mortgage rate is an important factor
influencing the demand for housing. In the past,
lower interest rates have boosted housing demand
levels. During the current cycle, lower interest
rates had little positive effect, because
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the availability of housing finance was
curtailed by the National Credit Act that was
implemented in July 2007, and because
7
the banks applied stricter credit lending
criteria during the recession. They currently
view their lending criteria as neutral or
normal given the prevailing monetary
environment
8
In terms of (smoothed) numbers, private house
plans in Mar 2012 were about 19 better than in
Mar 2011
9
In terms of square metres, dwelling houses plans
are still moving sideways
10
Data of townhouses and flats also show signs of a
lacklustre performance, more than two years into
the recovery phase in the overall economy
11
Average sizes are rising from 86 to 99 square
metres
12
The building cost of townhouses and flats has
risen rapidly in recent months to R526 500 per
unit
13
Moving sideways
14
It seems as if the lower turning point in offices
has been recorded, but Mar 2012 data were lower
than Feb 2012 figures
15
Office vacancy levels (vacancies line inverted)
remain high at about 10.5 of available space
16
Since the low point recorded in April 2011, only
a marginal improvement is evident, but Mar 2012
figures were lower than Feb 2012 data
17
The smoothed data for industrial buildings in Mar
2012 were just a little better than Feb 2012
figures
18
Industrial vacancies remain relatively high
(vacancies line inverted, right-hand scale)
19
This unstable time series is still dropping
20
Total Building Plans Passed are still moving
sideways with real levels more or less on a par
with those recorded a year ago
21
This comparison shows the relative performance of
the various market segments since 1987.
Long-term trends indicate a bottoming out of the
downward movements (except in the case of shops)
22
This comparison of long term trends shows the
lagged pattern. The residential sector is
moving sideways, whilst the non-residential
sector is still drifting downward, with the next
upswing, long in coming
23
BC is showing the normal lagged pattern
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The BPP indicator showing the long-term trend has
come out of a trough, but has since dropped
sharply, with the lagging BC series approaching a
trough
25
Both indicators are still reflecting a poor
performance
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Total BPP seems to be forming a trough, i.e. the
movement is sideways, but for BC there is more
downside potential
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Thank you for your attention Johan
Snyman mfa_at_iafrica.com