1. China

1
Originality of Wang and Lees argument on
population and economic in early modern China.

• 1. Chinas population grew faster than world
  average, 500 1750 (and scarcely fell behind
  1750-2000), but slower than Western Europe
• 2. At the same time, China avoided a Malthusian
  crisisavailability of food and standards of
  living rose
• 3. Chinas strange preventive checks (which
  Malthus others have failed to appreciate) made
  the difference
• A. Early female marriage, but little remarriage
• B. Male celibacy minor marriage
• C. Birth control within marriage
• D. Female infanticide
• E. Fictive kinship
• Is the argument convincing? (more on next slide)

2
Chinas demographic transitionwas it from
controlled fertility/early marriage to
uncontrolled and then to controlled/late marriage
(Lee/Wang, Fig. 7.4) or was it rarely controlled
until the 1950s
Lee Wangs Chinese demographic transition
Western Europes demographic transition
3
Is their argument (3previous slide) of Chinas
preventive check convincing?
Demographic dynamics of early modern China were
strikingly different from Western Europe

• A. Early female marriage, but little remarriage
• B. Male celibacy minor marriage
• C. Birth control within marriage
• Weakest evidence was lower fertility real or
  can it be explained by omission of births,
  particularly of females?
• D. Female infanticide
• E. Fictive kinship (adoption)
• Is the unique Chinese pattern a confirmation of
  Malthuss positive check? or the preventive check
  (as Lee and Wang argue)?

4
MalthusSixth Chapter XII in paragraph I.XII.12
The extraordinary encouragements that have been
given to marriage, which have caused the immense
produce of the country to be divided into very
small shares, and have consequently rendered
China more populous, in proportion to its means
of subsistence, than perhaps any other country in
the world.
5
China has many regionsand diverse growth
rates (1776-1990), p. 117.
6
The 4 distinctive aspects of the Chinese
(historical) demographic system (p. 7-9)

• 1. Mortality female infanticide was an
  important regulatornot famine (nor is
  infanticide a Malthusian positive checkaccording
  to Lee Wang).
• 2. A gender imbalanced marriage market (a
  marriage squeeze) too many males, too few
  females. Females married early and universally
  males late and some not at all
• 3. Low level of fertility within marriage (much
  lower than in Western Europe). Chinese TMFR (6
  children) was lower than Western Europe (7.5-9)
  but TFRs were about the same.
• 4. Fictive kinship (adoption)a socially
  constructed means of winning the demographic
  lottery (lack of heir)

7
Chinese pop. explosion is recent, 1950-2000
(Lee Wang, p. 28)
8
1930-1990 per capita grain production grew
faster than population, p. 30
9
Chinese demographic system was far more
calculating than Malthus ( others) have thought

• Roots stretch back 1,000 or more years
• Multiple conscious checks
• Typically, avoided the Malthusian positive
  check through endogenous restraints (p. 106)
• Early female marriage, hi male celibacy, minor
  marriage, little-daughter-in-law marriage,
  polygyny as serial monogamy
• Little remarriage
• Birth control within marriage delayed 1st
  birth, stopped bearing sooner, abstained from
  procreation
• Female infanticide was widely used when passion
  between the sexes got out of controlreduced
  family size, controlled gender
• Fictive kinshipinsurance for lack of male heir

10
Famine and Chinese population growth the
positive check

• Peasant rebellions, 1625-1650 It is
  impossible to estimate even approximately the
  number of people who perished directly in the two
  decades of peasant wars and indirectly from
  famine, pestilence, and economic dislocation.
• Real peace did not return until the 1680s.

11
Taiping Rebellion, 1851-1865.

• The World's most devastating civil war.
  Devastated the most densely populated areas of
  China. Population pressure was one of the basic
  causes of the rebellion. Perhaps 50 million
  people died.

12
Taiping Rebellion, 1851-1865.

• Wang Shih-to, a Taiping captive, innocent victim,
  observed in his diary The harm of
  over-population is that people are forced to
  plant cereals on mountain tops and to reclaim
  sandbanks and islets. All the ancient forestry
  of Szechwan has been cut down and the virgin
  timberland of the aboriginal regions turned into
  farmland. Yet there is still not enough for
  everybody. This proves that the resources of
  Heaven and Earth are exhausted.

13
Now, lets examine arguments A (prudential
marriage), C (fertility limitation), and D
(female infanticide).But notB (male marriage)
or E (adoption)--which are not demographically
significant
14
A. Marriage restraint 1Female age at marriage
age was below 20 until the 1980s(p. 67)
15
Bride being transported to wedding ceremony

• Contracting parties were the fathers (or
  patriarchical stand-ins match-makers were
  female)consulting couples wishes was not
  required.
• Private marriage rites transporting bride to
  her new husbands home, where the couple would
  bow silently before his familys ancestral altar.
  
• Marriages rites symbolized not free will, but
  rather submission of maturing children to family
  roles and filial duty.

16
Rush to marry females, while males had to wait
(p. 73)
17
-1900 96 of females married by age 30 after
1900 98-99 married by 30 (p. 68)
18
Is the evidence for A (prudential marriage)
persuasive?Or is early marriage the classic
pattern described by Hajnal for non-Western
populations?
19
C. Marital restraint 3 East Asian fertility
was scarcely half that of Europeans, 1600-1800
(p. 87)
Western Europe
East Asia
East Asian pattern late starting (3 yrs),early
stopping (lt35), long birth intervals (gt3 yrs)
20
Chinese total marital fertility was 2 kids below
the norm (8)--lower yet given early marriage (p.
85)
Fertility declined here
21
Is the evidence for C (fertility limitation)
persuasive?Lower fertility is not in doubt.The
question is whether lower fertility is due to
control or to biological factors (such as
sub-fecundity resulting from malnutrition and
early marriage) and/or errors in the data?
22
D. Female infanticide in early modern China
three points

• 1. Widespread in late 18th century rose as high
  as 1/10 of daughters born to imperial lineage.
• 2. The higher the birth order the less likely
  the daughter would live
• 3. Girls born to heads of households (and their
  sons) were also less likely to live

23
Female Infanticide in Chinese population history

• 17th c a magistrate proposed that any
  well-to-do family that had reared two daughters
  was to be awarded a wooden table on which the
  virtue of the family would be extolled.

24
Female Infanticide in Chinese population history

• 1847 ...The first female birth may sometimes
  be salvaged with effort, but the subsequent
  births are usually drowned. There are even those
  who drown every female baby without keeping
  any...This is because the poor worry about daily
  sustenance...and the rich are concerned over
  future dowries.

25
Father and mother cared for by faithful son and
daughter-in-law
26
Infant mortality of girls was 2-3X as great as
boys in late 18th century (Beijing, p. 46)
Did smallpox inoculation reduce child mortality
after 1740?
27
1/10 of daughters born into imperial lineage were
victims of infanticide, 1760-1820 (p. 50)
28
At higher birth orders for every female baby,
there were 3-4 males (p. 59)
29
Female Infanticide

• 1864 The rustic people of Hupei and parts of
  Hunan customarily rear two sons and one daughter
  at the most. Any further birth is often disposed
  of. The custom is particularly against female
  infants. This is why in this area women are
  proportionately scarce and single unmarried men
  abound. When a baby girl is born, she is usually
  killed by drowning. Her parents, of course,
  cannot bear this, but none the less they close
  their eyes and turn their backs, while continuing
  to immerse her in the water tub until she ceases
  to utter her feeble cries and dies.

30
Is the evidence for D (female infanticide)
persuasive?Yes, but Malthuss moralism would
have considered infanticide an abhorrent
practice, a positive, not a prudential check.
31
Is the argument convincing?Demographic dynamics
of early modern China were strikingly different
from Western Europe

• A. Early female marriage, but little remarriage
• B. Male celibacy minor marriage
• C. Birth control within marriage
• Weakest evidence can lower fertility be
  explained by omission of births, particularly of
  females?
• D. Female infanticide
• E. Fictive kinship
• Is the unique Chinese pattern a confirmation of
  Malthuss positive check? or the preventive check
  (as Lee and Wang argue)?

32
Conclusion positive checks are widely
mentioned in contemporary texts.Consider 2
testimonies 1748, 1820
33
Yang Hsi-fu, governor of rice-rich Hunan
province, 1748

• I was born and brought up in the countryside and
  my family had been for generations engaged in
  farming. I can recall from personal memory that
  many decades ago prices of one shih of rice
  ranged between two-tenths and three-tenths of a
  tael. A few decades later, such low prices were
  no longer possible and they rose to four-tenths
  or five-tenths. Nowadays the prices can never be
  lower than five or six-tenths.

34
Yang Hsi-fu, governor of rice-rich Hunan
province, 1748

• This is because a large population consumes
  large quantities of rice. Despite the
  considerable cultivated area that has been
  developed during the past few decades, in many
  regions there is no more room for agricultural
  expansion. It is inevitable that a rapidly
  increasing population should have caused a steady
  rise in the price of rice.

35
1820 Kung Tzu-chen, a gifted scholar, foretold
social dissolution.

• For some decades now the officials and commoners
  have been distressed and slipping fast. Those
  who are neither scholars and farmers nor artisans
  and traders constitute nearly one-half of the
  population. ... In general the rich households
  have become poor and the poor hungry. The
  educated rush here and there but are of no avail,
  for all are impoverished. The provinces are at
  the threshold of a convulsion....

36
End