OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS IN HURRICANES ISIDORE AND LILI (2002)

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OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS IN
HURRICANES ISIDORE AND LILI (2002)

• MPO, RSMAS, Univ. of Miami
• NSF ATM-01-08218,
• NOAA JHT

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Acknowledgments

• Capt. Bob Maxson and Dr. Jim McFadden (AOC) and
  the entire staff (pilots, engineers,
  technicians).
• Dr. Frank Marks (NOAA-HRD) for his continued
  support and HRD staff.
• Dr. Steve Nelson (NSF-Dynamic Mesoscale
  Meteorology Program) for his continued support.
• Dr. Russell Elsberry and the USWRP for
  recognizing the importance of the upper ocean on
  TC intensity issues.
• Mr. Tom Cook and Dr. S. Daniel Jacob (UMBC)
• Mr. Eric Uhlhorn, Cmdr. Sean White, Mr. Scott
  Guhin, Mr. Mike McGauley, Mr. Mike Black, and Mr.
  Robbie Berg.

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Introduction

• Long-term goal of the research is to understand
  the role of the upper ocean on hurricane
  intensity changes.
• Oceanic Heat Content (based on seasonal
  climatology and radar altimetry) improves
  predictive intensity models (i.e. SHIPS)-now part
  of the operational data stream (DeMaria et al.
  2002, 2004 Mainelli et al. 2002 Mainelli and
  Shay 2004).
• Not the full story-OHC is modulated by vertical
  mixing processes through vertical current shear.
  Since 84, Only 6 Storms where Vertical Current
  Shear has been measured from AXCPs.
• Overview of Isidore and Lili data set acquired
  from AXCPs and AXCTDs and the GPS sondes prior,
  during and subsequent to their passage in the
  Gulf of Mexico.
• Relevant to modeling here at NCEP.

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Challenge Getting the current and shear
correct in models for mixing.
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Conceptual Model GOM
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SST Response
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Oceanic Heat Content Relative to 26C
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2002 Summary Isidore and Lili
GPS/AXBT/AXCP/AXCTDs From 42/43
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Hurricane Isidore Pre-Storm, Storm,
Post-StormAXCP/AXCTD/AXBTs
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Hurricane Isidore Radar and Scatterometer
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SST (left panels) and OHC (right panels) for
Pre-Isidore (upper) and Post-Isiidore
(lower) Relative to Storm Intensity. (SSTs
processed by RSMAS Remote Sensing Laboratory).
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Pre-Post Isidore SST and OHC
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Hurricane Lili Pre-Storm, Storm,
Post-StormAXCP/AXCTD/AXBTs
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Hurricane Lili Radar and Scatterometer
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43 Lili In Storm Gulf of MexicoRapid Deepening
Cycle!
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SST (left panels) and OHC (right panels) for
Pre-Lili (upper) and Post-Lili (lower) Relative
to Storm Intensity. (SSTs processed by RSMAS
Remote Sensing Laboratory).
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Buoy 42001 Measurements(from White and Shay 2004)
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GPS sondes During the Lilis Relative to
Intensity and Track. G-IV (Left panel), P-3
(Right panels)
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Theta_e/Wind Variability at 24N
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Pre-Post Lili SST and OHC
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Hurricane Lili Post-Storm AXCP Transect at 2Rmax
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Lilis Wind Field from HWIND Relative To
Gridded Domain
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Pre-Storm OHC and Depth of 26oC Isotherm
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Pre- and Post OML Temperatures
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Post-Storm OML and Thermocline Currents
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Normalized OHC Change Versus Shear2 Production
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Hurricane Lili 2 Oct 02
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Hurricane Lili 2 Oct 02 Fluxes
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Pre-Storm OHC Satellite and In Situ Measurements
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Ocean Profiles From EPAC, GOM, and LC based on
AXCTDs.
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Challenge Fully Coupled Ocean Atmosphere
Model
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Comparison of Mixing Schemes in HYCOM During
the Passage of Gilbert.
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HYCOM

• North Atlantic HYCOM at 0.08 resolution
  extending from 28 S to 70 N. 26 levels/ layers
  in the vertical.
• High resolution surface forcing from FNMOC with
  Salinity relaxation at the surface.
• 3 buffer zones in the north and south relaxed
  to climatology.
• Satellite altimeter surface height anomalies from
  the MODAS operational system at NAVOCEANO
  (Initial Fields Are Important!).
• Mean Sea Surface Height from the 0.08 Atlantic
  MICOM.
• Vertical projection of surface height signature
  using the Cooper-Haines (1996) technique.
• Sea Surface Temperature not assimilated at
  present.

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Summary

• Best Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set Ever Acquired
  During TC Passage!
• Successful set of experiments due to the teamwork
  between NSF and NOAA-unique opportunity during a
  rapid deepening cycle.
• Vertical current shear modulates SST/OHC
  variability and heat fluxes, and must be measured
  more frequently (T(z) is NOT enough).
• Improve satellite algorithms for OHC/SHIPS
  Forecasting of TC and Oceanic component of models
  at Operational Centers (NCEP).
• Data set will contribute to several MS/PhD
  studies (Uhlhorn, White, Guhin, McGauley).