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Title: University of Missouri, St. Louis


1

Constant Change The Challenging Context of
The 21st Century
University of Missouri, St. Louis George L.
Mehaffy 13 November 2014
2
In fifty years, if not much sooner, half of the
roughly 4,500 colleges and universities now
operating in the United States will have ceased
to exist. The End of
the University as We Know It. Nathan Harden.
The
American Interest. January/February 2013.
http//www.the-american-interest.c
om/article.cfm?piece1352
3
(No Transcript)
4
Technology Changes Everything
5
Think about the impact of technology On
journalism On photography On the music
business On the book publishing/selling
business The Long Tail. Chris Anderson
(Hyperion, 2006)
6
One of technologys impact on business store
closings Abercrombie and Fitch 180 By
2015 Barnes and Noble 223 Over 9
years Aeropostale 175 Next few years JC
Penney 33 By mid-2014 Radio Shack
1,100 Just announced Staples 225 By
2015 Sears 500 Going Forward Family
Dollar 370 2014 http//247wallst.com/special-rep
ort/2014/03/12/retailers-closing-the-most-stores/

7
  • Robert Darnton
  • Four Great Information Ages
  • Invention of Writing, Mesopotamia, 4,000 BC
  • Moveable type
  • Mass steam-powered presses, Industrial Age
  • Internet, after 1993
  • Now You See It Attention and the Future of
    Learning. Cathy N. Davidson, http//chancellor.u
    cdavis.edu/local_resources/pdfs/colloquium-11-12/c
    cvol2_cathy_davidson.pdf

8
Eight Challenges to Public Higher Education
9
  • State Expenditures for Higher Education
  • (as a percentage of all expenditures local,
    state, federal, personal)
  • 1975 60 2010
    34

But huge variations in states From 1980 to
2011- Colorado 69
decline Minnesota 56 decline North
Dakota 1 increase Wyoming
3 increase
Based on the trends since 1980, average state
fiscal support for higher education will reach
zero by 2059. State Funding A Race to the
Bottom. Thomas G. Mortenson http//www.acenet.edu
/the-presidency/columns-and-features/Pages/state-f
unding-a-race-to-the-bottom.aspx
10
2. Cost Model
11
Sources College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2008 Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009,
www.bls.gov U.S. Census, Current Population
Study-ASEC, 2008. From the Delta Project.
Courtesy Jane Wellman
12
Simple Numbers Median inflation-adjusted
7 household income, 2006
2011 Tuition at public four year
18 Institutions, 2006 2011 http//www.nyt
imes.com/2013/02/01/opinion/my-valuable-cheap-coll
ege-degree.html?_r0
Public higher education an historic threshold
Students about to pay a higher percentage than
the state. 2012 net tuition 47 of public
colleges costs. http//chronicle.com/article/Stud
entsStates-Near-a/137709/
13
3. Business Model Higher education is a set of
cross-subsidies graduate education subsidized
by undergraduate upper division subsidized by
lower division
Jane Wellman, Delta Project

http//www.deltacostproject.org/ We also have
cross-subsidies by disciplines.
14
Credit Hour Distribution and Average Instructional Costs Public-four Year Averages, 4-state cost study (SUNY, Florida, Ohio, Illinois) Credit Hour Distribution and Average Instructional Costs Public-four Year Averages, 4-state cost study (SUNY, Florida, Ohio, Illinois) Credit Hour Distribution and Average Instructional Costs Public-four Year Averages, 4-state cost study (SUNY, Florida, Ohio, Illinois) Credit Hour Distribution and Average Instructional Costs Public-four Year Averages, 4-state cost study (SUNY, Florida, Ohio, Illinois)
of all credits taken of total spending on instruction Avg weighted cost/credit
Lower Division 36 23 1.00
Upper Division 48 44 1.42
Grad 1 12 23 2.88
Grad 2 4 9 4.00
100 100 1.55
SHEEO, 2010 Courtesy Jane Wellman SHEEO, 2010 Courtesy Jane Wellman SHEEO, 2010 Courtesy Jane Wellman SHEEO, 2010 Courtesy Jane Wellman
15
NCES, BPS, undergraduates only Courtesy Jane
Wellman
16
  • Moodys Inventor Services
  • Report January 23, 2012
  • Tuition levels are at a tipping point
  • Higher education must innovate to remain viable
  • Collaborations between colleges
  • More centralized management
  • More efficient use of facilities
  • Reduction in number of tenured faculty
  • Geographic and demographic expansion of
  • course offerings
    http//chronicle.com/article/article-con
    tent/130434/

17
  • Moodys Report, August 2013
  • In 2012
  • enrollment at public colleges was essentially
    flat
  • revenues grew less than 2 percent
  • expenses increased more than 3 percent

political pressure to limit tuition increases
and little expectation for big improvements in
state spending mean that public colleges will
have to continue to cut costs for the foreseeable
future. http//chronicle.com/blogs/bottomline/mo
odys-report-forecasts-a-gloomy-future-for-public-u
niversities/
18
4. Evidence of Success 2006 American
Institutes for Research (AIR) 20 of U.S.
college graduates only have basic quantitative
literacy skills unable to estimate if their car
has enough gasoline to get to the next gas
station. More than 50 of students at 4-yr
colleges lack the skills to perform complex
literacy tasks, such as comparing credit card
offers or summarizing the arguments of newspaper
editorials. http//www.air.org/news/index.cfm?fa
viewContentcontent_id445
19
Academically Adrift R. Arum J. Roksa
Study has indicated that 36 of students did not
show any significant improvement in Collegiate
Learning Assessment (CLA) performance over four
years.
20
Graduation Rate, 2010 Study 63.2 of 2003
students who began at a 4 -year college earned
bachelors degree by 2009. Beginning
Postsecondary Survey, National Center for
Education Statistics, U.S. Department of
Education. http//www.quickanded.com/2010/12/u-s-c
ollege-graduation-rate-stays-pretty-much-exactly-t
he-same.html
New Study 2012 Full time students 75 in 6
years Part time students 32 in 6 years New
National Tally of College Completion Tries to
Count All Students. http//chronicle.com/article
/New-National-Tally-of-College/135792/
21
5. Public Opinion 60 (six out of ten) of
Americans in 2010 said that colleges today
focused more on the bottom line than on the
educational experience of students.
http//www.highereducation.org/reports/squeeze_pl
ay_10/squeeze_play_10.pdf
In a recent survey, 80 said that at many
colleges, education received is not worth the
cost. Time Magazine, October 29, 2012, p. 37
Lumina survey in November/December 2012,
three quarters (3/4) of respondents said that
college is unaffordable. http//chronicle.com/arti
cle/Americans-Value-Higher/137023/
22
6. The Role of Venture Capitalists
New Start-Ups Udacity Udemy University
Now Coursebook Coursekit Courseload CourseRank
http//chronicle.com/article/A-Boom-Time-for-Educa
tion/131229/
23
7. Debt Debt Student loan debt outpaced credit
card debt for the first time last year.
More than one trillion dollars this
year Seven in 10 college seniors (71) who
graduated last year had student loan debt, with
an average of 29,400 per borrower.
http//projectonstudentdebt
.org/state_by_state-data.php
24
8. Inequality 1996 - 2012, public colleges and
universities gave a declining portion of
grantsas measured by both the number of grants
and the dollar amountsto students in the lowest
quartile of family income. The task of educating
low-income students has increasingly fallen to
community colleges and for-profit
colleges. http//chronicle.com/article/Public-Coll
eges-Quest-for/141541/
25
Who Receives Merit Aid? 1 in 5 students from
families with income over
250,000 1 in 10 students from families
with income under 30,000
Percentage of 24 Year Olds with College Degrees

1970 2011 Top-income quartile
40 70 Bottom-income quartile
6 10 http//www.nytimes.com/2013/09
/29/magazine/freebies-for-the-rich.html?_r0
26
The higher education system is more and more
complicit as a passive agent in the systematic
reproduction of white racial privilege across
generations.   Since 1995, 82 percent of new
white enrollments have gone to the 468 most
selective colleges, while 72 percent of new
Hispanic enrollment and 68 percent of new
African-American enrollment have gone to the
two-year open-access schools. http//cew.georgeto
wn.edu/separateandunequal/
27
Are we vulnerable to disruption? Christensen
and Eyring argue that disruption comes from
cheaper and simpler technologies that are
initially of lower quality. Over time, the
simpler and cheaper technology improves to a
point that it displaces the incumbent. The
Innovative University. Clayton Christensen and
Henry J. Eyring. 2011
28
The challenge is enormous. We have a confusion
of purposes, distorted reward structures,
limited success, high costs, massive
inefficiencies, and profound resistance to
change.
29
Clay Shirky --- The biggest threat those of us
working in colleges and universities face isnt
video lectures or online tests. Its the fact
that we live in institutions perfectly adapted
to an environment that no longer
exists. http//www.shirky.com/weblog/2014/01/
30
The greatest challenge to our survival and
success is our inability and/or unwillingness to
change.
31
Churchill House of Commons
32
The Chamber should be oblong and not
semi-circular there should not be room for all
its Members it should be designed to preserve
that intimacy of debate and discussion, freedom
and sense of urgency and excitement

http//hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1945/ja
n/25/house-of-commons-rebuilding
"We shape our buildings, and afterwards our
buildings shape us. House of Commons (meeting
in the House of Lords), 28 October 1943.
33
Dungeons and Dragons Prisoners of Our Own
Beliefs Tyrannized by Mythical Beasts
34
The Key Issue How do we educate more students,
with greater learning outcomes, at lower costs?
35
What should a 21st century university look
like? (were only slightly more than 1/8 of
the way into this new century, so let me
describe some emerging characteristics of
21st century universities not the final
product)
36
Core Commitments
37
Commitment to Access
Mission Statement Arizona State
University measured not by who we exclude, but
rather by who we include and how they succeed
I dont think the taxpayers of Florida voted to
tax themselves to build a university that their
children could not attend. John Hitt, President
The University of Central Florida (UCF)
38
  • A commitment to ACCESS Multiple entry points
  • Make every effort to get students into the
    university
  • early college programs in high school
  • summer preparatory academies
  • testing in 11th grade and using 12th grade for
    remediation, etc.
  • community college pathways
  • And then make sure they succeed!

39
And challenge old assumptions whos college
ready? A simple example college
mathematics Are students not prepared? Or are
we the ones who are not ready? Carnegie
Foundation for the Advancement of
Teaching Statways and Quantways
40
Success for At-Risk Students
University of Texas Chemistry 301 David
Laude Took 50 students with risk indicators
Low SAT, low income, first generation (200
points lower on SAT) Separate class, special
interventions Extra class hours, mentorsand
high expectations. Outcome Same grades as
large section Higher overall graduation rate 3
years later http//www.nytimes.com/
2014/05/18/magazine/who-gets-to-graduate.html
41
Two key ideas Belonging and Ability One 45
minute intervention for first year students
resulted in an 86 completion rate (completing 12
hours of credit in first semester) for
disadvantaged students (black, Latino, first
generation) cutting in half the gap between
advantaged students (90) and disadvantaged
students (82)
42
Commitment to Student Success
A set of studies by AASCU, Ed Trust, and the
National Association of System Heads (NASH)
43
Commitment to Learning Outcomes
  • New Tools (CLA, CAAP, and MAPP)
  • New Organizations (NILOA, New
  • Leadership Alliance,
    etc.)
  • New Initiatives (Degree Qualifications
  • Profile DQP)
  • New Pressures (Academically Adrift)
  • New Expectations (business, parents and
  • students, government,
    accreditors)

44
What Learning Outcomes?
What are the key work attributes of the 21st
century? --- Solving unstructured problems ---
Working with new information --- Carrying out
non-routine tasks--- Complex communication ---
Expert thinking The New Division of Labor How
Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market.
Frank Levy Richard J. Murnane. 2005
45
Teaching As Valued As Research
  • Comparing Teaching Effectiveness
  • Tenure and Non-Tenure Faculty
  • Academic performance, 8 cohorts of
    freshmen 15,662 students, from fall 2001 to fall
    2008.
  • Taking a course from non-tenure track faculty
    members
  • Increases the likelihood that a student will
    take another class in the subject
  • Increases the grade earned in that subsequent
    class
  • Produces the greatest gains for weakest students

  • Northwestern
    University Study

  • http//chronicle.com/article/Ad-juncts-Are-
    Bet-ter/141523/

46
Commitment to be Stewards of Place For the 21st
century university, a focus on citizenship
preparation, P-12 education, health care,
economic and community development, and
internationalization. AASCU
published a second and third volume
in the Stewards of Place series in August 2014
47
  • Commitment to Reducing Costs
  • Time to Completion
  • 120 hours for all majors
  • Reducing bottlenecks in completion
  • Charging out-of-state for 30 credits beyond
    graduation requirements
  • Intrusive advising and early remediation
  • Flat rate for summer courses

48
Commitment to the Right Incentives
What counts in the new university? What really
matters? What are the metrics of success? Who
gets rewarded / recognized?
49
Perverse Incentives Cardiac surgeons turned away
the sickest and most severely ill patients after
adopting performance-based health report
cards. Health disparities widened among White,
Black, and Hispanic patients after introducing
physician report cards. http//www.learningoutcom
esassessment.org/documents/HillmanViewpoint.pdf
50
Commitment to Rethinking Status and Prestige
Our institutions were created as teaching
institutions, instead of learning institutions.
From Teaching to Learning - A New Paradigm for
Undergraduate Education. Robert B. Barr and John
Tagg. Change Magazine. Nov./.Dec., 1995.
51
Key Changes
52
  • Changes in Academic Structures
  • Multiple-institutional Courses
  • Course (set of competencies)
  • Credit Hour (based on seat time)
  • Semester (unlike Facebook)
  • Curriculum (interdisciplinary, community-
    linked)
  • Degree (competency, certificates, etc.)
  • Capstone Courses/Experiences

53
  • Changing Administrative Practices
  • Outsourcing
  • Campus Consolidation and Expansion
  • Strategic and Corporate Partnerships
  • Contingent and Flexible Workforce
  • Alterations in Benefits

54
  • Changing Administrative Structures
  • Organization design for optimal student outcomes
  • Multidisciplinary units
  • Units organized around problems, not disciplines

55
  • Changes in Physical Space
  • Classrooms
  • Library
  • Bookstore
  • Office Space
  • Campus

56
Changes in Student Services One example
Coaching
Percent First-Year Student Retention (2006 - 2011)
Increase 2006 - 2011 Increase 2006 - 2011
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Points Percent
Latino 65 70 72 78 84 81 16 25
First Generation 52 69 72 75 79 81 29 56
Low Income 69 70 74 75 79 83 14 20
Overall 65 67 71 76 78 79 14 22
Source CSUMB University Factbook, CSUMB Office
of Institutional Assessment and Research
57
Changing Faculty Work and Culture Faculty will
work in a networked world --- in a collaboration
of faculty, other experts, and students across
time and space.
As individuals we will have to abandon that
sense of ourselves as independent actors and
agents. Checklist for Change. Robert
Zemsky. http//chronicle.com/article/How-to-Build-
a-Faculty-Culture/141887
58
The comparison of the work of physicians and
university faculty members is striking Big
Med. Atul Gawande. The New Yorker.
http//www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/08/13/120
813fa_fact_gawande?currentPageall
59
In medical education, Darrell Kirch describes An
Emerging Culture for Health Care 1.     
Hierarchal to Collaborative 2.      Autonomous to
Team-Based 3.      Competitive to
Service-Based 4.      Individualistic to Mutually
Accountable 5.      Expert-centered to
Patient-centered Higher Education and the
Future of American Health Care by Darrell G.
Kirch, M.D., President and CEO, Association of
American Medical Colleges (Washington, D.C.,
November 2, 2010). 
60
Focus on Innovative Teaching
61
Flipped Courses The flipped course. You do
homework by watching lectures. You go to class
to work on problems together. Khan Academy
2,400 videos covering everything from arithmetic
to physics, finance, and history. Khan lessons
viewed by more than 4 million people a month.
http//www.khanacademy.org/
62
Open Learning Initiative (OLI)
Carnegie Mellon University

http//oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/index.php Tea
m content specialist cognitive
scientist instructional designer
graphic designer OLI-Statistics
students learned a full semesters worth of
material in half as much time and performed as
well or better than students learning from
traditional instruction over a full
semester. http//oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/pub
lications/71-effectiveness-statistics0
63
Science Classes The Carl Wieman Science
Education Initiative Three strategies 1.
Reducing cognitive load 2. Addressing beliefs 3.
Stimulating and guiding thinking

http//www.cwsei.ubc.ca/
Experiment produced two times the learning
outcomes Deslauriers, Schelew, and Wieman.
Science. 13 May 2011, pp. 862 864.
64
  • Math Emporiums
  • Higher Educations Silver Bullet Carol Twigg
    http//www.changemag.org/Archives/Back20Issues/20
    11/May-June202011/math-emporium-full.html
  • 3 Keys To Success
  • Interactive computer software
  • Personalized on-demand assistance
  • Mandatory Student Participation

65
Blended Courses Blended (hybrid) courses combine
fact-to-face classroom instruction with online
learning and reduced classroom contact hours
(reduced seat time) Charles Dziuban, Joel
Hartman, Patsy Moskal. Blended Learning.
EDUCAUSE. 2004 http//net.educause.edu/ir/library
/pdf/ERB0407.pdf
SRI Study http//www2.ed.gov/rschstat/eval/tech/ev
idence-based-practices/finalreport.pdf
Ithaka Study http//www.sr.ithaka.org/research-pub
lications/interactive-learning-online-public-unive
rsities-evidence-randomized-trials
66
  • Broad Course Re-Design
  • George Kuh High Impact Practices
  • First-year seminars and experiences
  • Common intellectual experiences
  • Learning communities
  • Writing-intensive courses
  • Collaborative assignments and projects
  • Undergraduate research
  • Diversity/global learning
  • Service learning, community-based learning
  • Internships
  • Capstone courses and projects
  • George Kuh. High-Impact Educational Practices
  • What They Are, Who Has Access to Them, and Why
    They Matter.
  • AACU, 2008.
  • Ensuring Quality Taking High Impact Practices
    to Scale.

67
Prior Learning and Competencies Prior Learning
Assessments Council on Adult and Experiential
Learning (CAEL) New Competency-based
Degrees Southern New Hampshire
University Northern Arizona University Western
Governors University Competency-based Hybrid
Degrees Badges Khan Academy
Certifications Cisco Mozilla
CLA Pearson
68
Personalization
  • The capacity of software and systems to tailor
    course materials, learning processes, and
    approaches to the unique circumstances of
    individual learners.
  • Individual characteristics
  • Learning style
  • Memory decay
  • Pacing
  • Obstacles or misunderstandings

69
  • 70 New Personalization Providers
  • Some Examples
  • Adapt Courseware
  • A New Spring
  • Cerego Global
  • Cogbooks
  • Jones and Bartlett Learning
  • Knewton
  • Loudcloud Systems
  • McGraw-Hill Learnsmart Advantage Suite
  • Open Learning Initiative
  • Quantum Simulations
  • Smart Sparrow

  • Learning to Adapt. 2013
  • http//edgrowthadvis
    ors.com/research/

70
So what are the take-aways from this set of
ideas? What are some lessons for UMSL?
71
  • In a world of constant change, it seems to me
    that you must
  • Embrace change
  • Challenge every practice
  • Provide a safe environment for experimentation
    and failure

72
This is not simply a difficult moment for higher
education it is the dawn of a very different
era. The institutions that will succeedindeed,
thrivein this era will be those that constantly
innovate.
73
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74
Further Readings Dungeons and Dragons
Prisoners of Our Own Beliefs Tyrannized by
Mythical Beasts. Gardner Institute Academic
Affairs/Student Affairs Conference. Orlando,
Florida. January 17, 2014. Challenge and
Change. EDUCAUSE Review. (vol. 47, no. 5.
September/ October 2012). http//www.educause.edu/
ero/article/challenge-and-change. Medieval
Models, Agrarian Calendars, and 21st Century
Imperatives. Teacher Scholar. Volume 2 Number 1
(Fall 2010).
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