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IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES : ADAPTABILITY APPROACH

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IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES : ADAPTABILITY APPROACH R K KHANNA Former Chief Engineer (Environment Management) Central Water Commission – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES : ADAPTABILITY APPROACH


1
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES
ADAPTABILITY APPROACH
  • R K KHANNA
  • Former Chief Engineer
  • (Environment Management)
  • Central Water Commission
  • New Delhi

2
  • As for me, all I know is that I know nothing
  • - Socrates

3
Introduction
  • Whether CC occurs or not one believes in it or
    not, it is at our door-steps.
  • Neither get swept off by the on-going shrill
    blitz, nor close ones eyes to it.
  • Urgent need for a cool and reasoned approach to
    face it
  • Considering its advance, proposed international
    measures to curb GHG emissions, and likely
    impacts, WR Sector to gear up
  • Quickly ascertain size and scope of its effects
    in near future and by 2050
  • Assessment under three scenarios, viz. BAU,
    optimistic, and intermediate to enable calculated
    actions.
  • As CC is likely to affect WR Sector most,
    prudence demands that water professionals plan
    necessary adaptive measures

4
A controversial issue
  • somewhat controversial issue
  • not a new phenomenon ?
  • mention of climate change even in Vedas
  • Some Jain scriptures ?in Kaliyuga All rivers
    except Ganga and Indus will dry up and all
    bio-div will be lost.
  • some aspects of the IPCC report challenged
  • an attempt made here to keep clear of all
    controversies and focus on possible impact of
    climate change on WR and adaptive measures,
    including the role of standards

5
Overview
  • Very important in WR
  • Its role assumes greater importance in view of
    the anticipated impact of climate change on WR
  • This presentation ? overview of recent events
    and components of an adaptive strategy from
    policy framework to planning, designing,
    installing, O M and safety for existing and
    proposed utilities/facilities in water sector.
  • All water sectors ? irrigation, drinking water,
    domestic, industrial, hydropower and energy,
    navigation, recreation and water users ?
    Farmers, Women, Religious social aspects . are
    considered

6
ATMOSPHERE AND GHGS
  • huge publicity to the subject
  • a gullible layman walking on roads may relate
    every misfortune in life to earths atmosphere
    warming up due to choking with GHGs
  • Indeed he does not know that the atmosphere
    continues to comprise about 78 of Nitrogen, 21
    of oxygen, about 0.9 Argon as he learnt in his
    school days!
  • Again, he does not know that all GHGs are not
    unfriendly to mankind and life itself.
  • natural GHGs have made the earth liveable by
    keeping its surface temperature at about 14 deg
    C undoubtedly with the climatic variability in
    time and space, instead of probably 19 deg C in
    their absence!

7
CLIMATE CHANGE (CC) AND IPCC
  • Earths atmospheric CO2 accumulation built up in
    last few centuries due to burning of fossil fuels
    for meeting energy needs.
  • Around 1800 AD, French Physicist Fourier, in
    1896 by Swedish scientist Arrhenius indicated
    likelihood of warming of earth temperature due to
    such anthropogenic CO2, which grew rapidly after
    the Industrial Revolution,
  • different from earths normal temperature
    variation which is caused by fluctuation in solar
    radiation, tilt of axis, its wobble, volcanic
    activity, land/oceans earth area proportion etc.

8
CLIMATE CHANGE (CC) AND IPCC (cont)
  • Presently, the increase in CO2 content seems to
    be more than 0.5 percent per year from present
    level of about 350 ppm.
  • Several scientists concluded that such rise
    beyond say 450 ppm unless reversed, could cause
    global warming.
  • Apparently this term being considered a bit
    aggressive was modified a few years ago to a more
    neutral term CC.
  • UNEP and WMO established IPCC in 1988 for
    compiling available knowledge on the subject, to
    enable a global view and development of a
    possible agenda to redress damaging effects.
  • Currently, Dr. R.K.Pachauri of TERI chairs IPCC
    brought four action reports.

9
Fourth action report of IPCC - 2007
  • Water availability
  • total annual river runoff over the whole land
    surface is projected to increase, even though
    there are regions with significant increase and
    significant decrease in runoff. However,
    increased runoff cannot be fully utilised unless
    there is adequate infrastructure to capture and
    store the extra water.
  • Floods
  • heavy precipitation events are projected to
    become more frequent over most regions throughout
    the 21st century. This would affect the risk of
    flash flooding and urban flooding.
  • Droughts
  • Droughts have become more common, especially in
    the tropics and sub-tropics, since the1970s. it
    is likely that the area affected by drought has
    increased since the 1970s, and it is more likely
    than not that there is a human contribution to
    this trend. Decreased land precipitation and
  • increased temperatures, which enhance
    evapotranspiration and reduce soil moisture, are
    important factors that have contributed to more
    regions experiencing droughts.

10
UNFCCC, MP - APPARENT SUCCESS, KP NON-STARTER
  • UN adopted UNFCCC in 1992 at Rio Earth Summit
  • MP- 1995 aimed at phasing out CFCs, considered a
    cause for ozone hole
  • Global agreement by all countries under MP,
    resulted in some success
  • China has recently succeeded in CFC phase out.
    India hopefully will follow.
  • KP -1997 requiring 38 developed countries to cut
    by 2012, global GHG emissions by 5 below the
    1995 levels, entered into force as late as 2005
    with US, Canada and Australia not on board
    insisting on commitment to cuts by China/India
    too.
  • As such cuts would eat back into their overdue
    economic development agenda, developing countries
    insisted rich countries to agree to cuts.

11
UNFCCC, MP - APP SUCCESS, KP NON-STARTER (cont)
  • economically developed countries had a major
    share in emission level of GHGs.
  • But, China India are included in present top 5
    gross emitters of GHGs, simply because their
    population being about 35 of the world.
  • India for example has 17 of population but
    emits 4 GHGs. Emissions in tones per capita of
    the top 5 countries however are US 24, Russia
    14, Japan 11, China 4, India 2.
  • As China/Indias per capita footprint is lower
    than many developed countries with lower gross
    emissions, they argued that responsibility for
    cutting emissions should lie with main polluters.
    Logic tells that the polluter must pay the cost
    of repair to the present CO2 level.

12
UNFCCC, MP - APP SUCCESS, KP NON-STARTER (cont)
  • difficulties for developed countries in
    implementing massive cuts
  • Little progress is however since achieved.
  • In December 2007, UNs 13th COP at Bali
    (Indonesia) considered IPCCs fourth action
    report and decided (with US on board for the
    first time), to prepare for UN by end 2009 at
    Copenhagen, a KP successor Road Map for cutting
    GHG emissions to a maximum upto 2020 and to 50
    of 2000 level by 2050.

13
CC and Sources of CO2,CH4, N2O
  • IPCCs last two action reports brought out
    several aspects of CC
  • CC ? rise in earth temperature, melting of
    snow-caps, glacier regression, landslides
    possibly due to defreezing, sea level rise,
    increase in variability of weather parameters,
    rise in incidence of extreme events, damage to
    water cycle, fall in crop productivity, increase
    in crop loss, and increase in heat related
    mortality
  • 4th Action Report published in 2007 ?covering
    vulnerability, ways for adaptation, and measures
    for mitigation.
  • Confirmed and quantified earlier findings while
    exhorting urgency in cutting stabilizing
    reduction of GHG emissions in stages by 2050,
    especially in light of evidence of rapidity in
    their increase due to increasing energy needs.

14
CC and Sources of CO2,CH4, N2O(cont)
  • GHG contribution attributed gt about 24 to
    energy sector, 18 to deforestation, 14 each to
    industry, agriculture, and transport sectors
  • Paddy cultivation, agricultural land-use and
    reservoirs are considered main sources for CH4
    and N2O emissions.
  • Scientists however not sure about size of their
    contribution to GHGs.
  • WR sector for example rejected some years ago,
    reservoirs as a source for methane emissions.
  • Source of CO2 and other GHGs lies in energy and
    industry sectors.
  • So effort to increase efficiency in energy
    generation and reduction in its use is important
    part of the strategy.
  • Cutting fossil fuel consumption in transportation
    sector equally important for future.

15
GCMS, HDR AND UNCERTAINTY
  • IPCC categorical about climate change (CC)
  • but significant uncertainty about size of impact,
    particularly on Water Sector persists due to
    inbuilt deficiencies in GCMs.
  • These models yet not quite adequate to simulate
    monsoons and thermo-dynamic laws correctly.
  • Impacts of CC on availability, variability,
    extreme events-from skies to seas- in planning
    defensive measures for existing water utilities
    in all sectors of water use to be assessed and
    quantified.
  • Similarly- planning of future IWRDM
  • climax ? 2007 with Nobel Peace Prize going to
    IPCC.

16
GCMS, HDR AND UNCERTAINTY (cont)
  • On heels of Nobel Peace Prize ? UN Human
    Development Report (2006) in December 2007
  • focusssed on capacity of each country to
    Fighting Climate Change by cutting gross
    emissions based on each nations HD Index (which
    had been contested by many from the developing
    world ).
  • India was quick in rejecting the hypothesis
    saying that emissions per capita has to be the
    basis and not the gross emissions.
  • latter puts a ceiling on their already unmet and
    fast expanding energy needs for poverty reduction
    and picking up faster economic development.

17
AVOIDABLE EXAGGERATION, HYPE, SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
  • CC soon became a buzz word.
  • Usual hype generation in minds of masses started
    without making any effort at real assessments.
  • Any extreme climatic event ?CC, though it may be
    a characteristic of local variability.
  • As if epidemic struck the society
  • building public awareness , roping in
    academicians, politicians and governments alike
    to fight this giant wolf looming large
  • instead of tackling more mundane but neglected
    duties related to sanitation, roads, traffic ,
    even water and power

18
AVOIDABLE EXAGGERATION, HYPE, SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT (cont)
  • No doubt, the projected parameters of CC
    intimately cover water related socio-economic
    uses.
  • But without assessments, exaggerated dooms-day
    views were projected.
  • Some samples ?About 400 M population in Ganga
    basin likely to be affected Decimation of 20 to
    70 of world species Likely doom for Yangtse,
    Ganga, Indus, Mekong, Rio-Grande, Murray-Darling
    Decline in surface and ground-water
    availability Inundation of south Asian cities
    including Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Dhaka,
    Karachi due to snow-melt Floods in Ganga basin
    Devastation of societies.

19
AVOIDABLE EXAGGERATION, HYPE, SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT (cont)
  • All this hype , in spite of distinct possibility
    of reversal of CC if concerned nations make
    honest efforts.
  • indeed necessary to rationally consider
    different scenarios of success of reversal
    strategy that may be worked out by various
    conferences/meetings
  • But in meanwhile, one must first assess likely
    impacts for 3 scenarios in WR Sector Business As
    Usual (BAU), the most optimistic, and the most
    probable, rather than crying wolf.

20
ADAPTIVE STRATEGY FOR WR SECTOR ( VARIOUS SECTORS
)
  • Water Policy
  • Effects of CC, viz. increase in surface
    temperatures, increase in climatic extreme
    events, increase in variability of rainfall, its
    intensity and frequency, changes in active and
    break periods in monsoon, increased snow and
    glacier-melt, more floods and droughts, increase
    in desertification processes, rise in sea level
    etc. have to be examined and quantified.
  • necessary to introduce counter-measures for such
    effects in the National Water Policy (NWP 2002-
    and subsequent revisions) State Policies
    including the Action Plans wherever called for.

21
Water Policy (cont)
  • Alongside, modify where necessary IWRDM plan
    proposed by the National Commission in 1999
  • Policy change including enhancement of
    Inter-Basin Water transfer (IBWT) to use likely
    increase in water availability.
  • WR plans in past have always addressed
    optimization of output with sustainability and
    productivity as corner stones process needs to
    be modified, improved, strengthened measures
    already identified need to be implemented in
    mission mode.
  • ASSOCHAM, though not presently connected with
    policy formulation, should now associate itself
    with such activities and try to expand its
    horizons.

22
Co-ordinated Effort
  • Policy Research RD Investigations
  • Set up Standing Water Policy Research Groups in
    Centre and States, e.g. in CWC, NIH, CWPRS
    State CDOs/Hydrology cells to undertake these
    activities
  • WR sector should join Joint Research Programmes
    initiated by MoEF, IITM, IMD and related
    departments on CC.
  • Organisations such as ASSOCHAM can play an
    important role

23
Hydrologic Parameters
  • South West/NorthEast monsoon, snowfall due to
    westerlies emanating from Mediterranean, and
    contribution of Bay of Bengal depressions to
    runoff from Central Indian Rivers
  • These three inter-active climate systems yield
    Indias WR including inflows from neighbouring
    countries.
  • What is the degree of inter-dependence? For
    instance Is there an inverse relationship
    between SW monsoon and snowfall? What is the
    contribution of BoB depressions to Indias
    Hydrology? Precipitation, snow/glacier melt,
    rivers and runoff, SW/GW availability are the
    parameters to be quantified. What is the snowmelt
    contribution to run-off in Himalayan rivers ?

24
Hydrologic Parameters (cont)
  • WR must join multi-disciplinary Joint Research
    Teams of user departments, like agriculture,
    health, drinking water, sanitation, industry,
    environment, forestry, meteorology, oceans, and
    energy
  • Assess scientifically likely impacts of CC by
    2015, 2025, 2050 for different scenarios,
    Quantify precipitation (snow and ice) and its
    distribution.
  • Will CC affect active or gap phases of SW
    monsoon? How much? Will they be shorter or
    longer? Will higher intensity of rainfall affect
    hydrology
  • Overall, runoff of rivers might marginally
    increase changing the dependable runoff. Success
    rate for meeting project objectives might
    improve. But, Probable Maximum Precipitation
    curves might need modifications causing a need
    for review of design floods for major utilities.
    Take up such studies and ensure safety of major
    structures.

25
Snow/Glacier Melt Effect on Runoff
  • Likely change in their occurrence being predicted
    but basin-wise assessments of trends initiated by
    IITM/IMD need inputs from CWC/NIH/State Hydrology
    Cells.
  • Identify contribution of Nepal/Bhutan/Chinas
    snow/ice cover at Indias borders separately.
  • Initially, these rivers might carry more runoff
    in summer months recharging GW increasing
    availability. If and when snowcaps shrink, runoff
    may decrease, reversing the summer run-off and
    recharge to GW. Identify these watershed years.
    Study how CC affects Himalayan river basins
    snowfall and hence sustenance of run-off?

26
Snow/Glacier Melt Effect on Runoff (cont)
  • Cell constituted in CWC to assess contribution of
    snowmelt and Glaciers to Himalayan River systems,
    under Chief Engineer (Planning Development).

27
Storage and Supply System
  • Storage, carryover, canals
  • With increase in spatial and temporal
    variability, more storage in existing reservoirs
    needed
  • Frame proposals to increase height of some sample
    dams.
  • For new schemes also, plan for more storage
    space. As a starter, move from 75 ? 50
    dependability in planning utilization for
    irrigation purposes and modify accordingly for
    Hydro-power and drinking water
  • Undertake Inter Basin Water Transfer (IBWT)
    through prioritized links.
  • Plan for enhanced yearly availability with more
    variability but increased Evapotranspiration
    (ET).
  • Undertake CAT to enhance reservoir life. Provide
    sediment traps on tributaries. Introduce sluice
    spillways in old dams, for flushing sediment and
    create larger live storage.

28
Deltas, Estuaries, River Mouths
  • Deltas, estuaries, coastland, salinity ingress,
    inundation
  • Undertake studies for critical installations/termi
    nal infrastructure on coastline and near river
    mouths for likely inundation and plan for
    defensive measures against sea level rise.
  • Review distributory network from heads of all
    deltas for optimization of water deployment.
  • Plan for regulation of GW abstraction to counter
    possible salinity ingress.

29
Accentuation of Disasters
  • Desertification, Droughts, Floods
  • Review structural/nonstructural measures for
    improved management of these natural disasters
  • Design structures for a 150 yr flood instead of
    100 yr flood for better safety
  • Prepare an atlas showing Drought Prone Areas (
    DPA) /Deserts treated with WR facilities during
    the last 50 years. Keeping in mind the
    ameliorative effect of WR infrastructure on these
    natural disasters, promote stalled structural
    measures.
  • Review rule curves for spillway
    operation/strategy for filling reservoirs for
    major reservoirs every 3-5 years. Strengthen
    non-structural measures such as flood forecasting.

30
Irrigation
  • Better co-ordination with Agriculture
    Departments
  • Reduce wastage of applied irrigation water.
  • Treat drained water and reuse. Save available
    water from losses. Increase irrigation efficiency
    through proven farming techniques, micro
    precision irrigation technologies (sprinkler/drip
    )
  • Water Shed Development (WSD)/Rain Water
    Harvesting (RWH).
  • Modernise Water Management procedures for
    increasing productivity. ( more crop per drop )
  • WUAs with volumetric supplies only, resulting
    into Irrigation Management Transfer (IMT),
    promote participatory processes.
  • Wherever possible go for corporate (rather than
    co-operative) farming.
  • changes in crop calendar to suit shorter growing
    season, new crop-patterns, irrigation schedules,
    inter-cropping, integrated farming systems

31
Hydropower
  • Expedite remaining identified HP projects
  • claim carbon credits from on-going and proposed
    HP stations for undertaking new stations.
  • Build HP stations at all canal outlets and at dam
    foot where not undertaken.
  • Add hydropower capacity in existing stations
    where feasible.
  • Regulate releases from HP facilities rejuvenate
    drying rivers
  • Convert existing HP units into Pump Turbines to
    allow reuse of waters during the next make-over
    of old units.
  • Identify upper reservoir sites for pumped
    storages based on existing reservoirs. Use all
    falls for adding mini and micro facilities.
  • Studies can be taken up by ASSOCHAM, under an RD
    programme, regarding reduced flows in the rivers
    due to glacier melt and subsequent impact on
    hydro power generation.

32
Drinking, domestic, industrial use
  • Provide more dedicated storages for these uses.
  • As more river stretches might dry up, provide
    piped water supply to direct river-water users
    like rural areas
  • Stop river use for washing and bathing. Provide
    instead river-side facilities.
  • Go for zero-effluent approach for industrial use.
    Collect, Treat and Reuse all waste-water. Provide
    incentives.
  • BIS can formulate standards in these areas

33
Fishery
  • Use all reservoirs for co-operative or commercial
    fishery. Use canal lengths for fishery leasing to
    en-route villages.
  • A BIS standard has already been prepared
    regarding fishery which would need modification.

34
Navigation
  • Review established links for draft availability.
    Plan new ones for reduced draft in summer.
    Promote navigation in reservoirs.

35
Leisure and recreation
  • Develop each WR project for installing
    appropriate facilities in mission mode. Setup
    museums, exhibitions and mobile displays for
    publicity of achievements of water sector.
  • BIS can formulate standards for eco-friendly
    tourism ?unregulated tourism development should
    not lead to environmental degradation land and
    water.

36
ADAPTIVE STRATEGY FOR WR SECTOR ( VARIOUS USERS
)
  • - Farmers
  • - Women
  • - Religious social aspects

37
Farmers
  • Total annual river runoff over the whole land
    surface is projected to increase, even though
    there are regions with significant increase and
    significant decrease in runoff.
  • Eighty percent ( 83 ) of water in India is used
    for irrigation i.e. irrigated agriculture.
  • So farmers are likely to face problems in the
    regions with significant decrease in runoff
  • One way to meet this situation is to create more
    storages, that is, increase water availability

38
Farmers ( cont )
  • Const of storages ( dams ) ?a huge/gigantic task
    no of constraints viz technical, financial,
    environmental and social , even inter-state
  • Other way ?conservation.
  • Needs awareness generation in various water
    user groups viz farmers, industries, women,
    domestic users, even domestic helps.
  • Even school children need to be trained in this
    regard as they are the future water users, may be
    water managers.

39
Dedicated to women
  • A poem from the Therigatha, spoken by the slave
    woman Punnika and translated in The First
    Buddhist Women begins "I am a water carrier.
    Even in the cold I have always gone down to the
    water." Punnika lived 2500 years ago, but her
    water-carrying descendants are seen wherever one
    travels in Asia. Women are the carriers of water,
    as well as the caretakers of water they perform
    the most basic tasks. In this sense, women are
    the caretakers of life.

40
Introduction
  • Women as Goddesses Laxmi(Wealth),Saraswati
    (Knowledge), Kali( Destroyer of evil)
  • Water as God (Jal or Varun)
  • Woman- mother of mankind
  • Water- harbinger of prosperity
  • Women- a living being
  • Water a life giver
  • Women-custodians of environment (i/c water)

41
Role of women in water sector Global
  • Role of women universally recognised
  • International Conference on Water Env
    (Dublin-Jan 92) one of four principles
  • - Women play a central part in provision,
    management, safeguarding of water
  • Agenda 21 (Rio Conf - June 92) Enhancement of
    role of women in WR planning mgt ( to achieve
    integrated WR dev mgt )

42
Other international conf
  • UN International Conference on Population and
    Development (Cairo, 1994),
  • Fourth World Conference on Women (Beijing, China)
    1995
  • International Conference on Freshwater held in
    Bonn, Germany (December 2001)
  • Johannesburg Summit (28 August-04 September 2002

43
Role of women in water sector India
  • Crucial role water mainly womens business
  • Half of agr labour force provided by women
  • 30 poor households (rural) headed by women
  • Workload influenced by water availability ( irr
    or domestic) increased by dev of irr agr
    increased by non-availability of domestic w/s
  • Womens rep in WUAs , NGOs important
  • Irr or w/s projects soc-eco surveys should
    cover womens needs

44
Women ( cont )
  • As mentioned earlier, eighty percent ( 83 ) of
    water in India is used for irrigation i.e.
    irrigated agriculture in which women play a major
    role.
  • Like farmers, women are also likely to face
    problems in the regions with significant decrease
    in runoff.
  • The adaptability approach to meet this situation
    is to create more storages, that is, increase
    water availability and, also, water conservation
    by various water user groups.

45
Religious and social aspects
  • In stream uses of water, specific to India
    ?religious mass bathing ( for instance, Kumbh
    mela at Prayagraj in Allahabad )
  • Regular bathing and washing also need adequate
    flow to be maintained to contain river pollution
  • This needs, on one hand, construction of new
    storages and, on other hand, proper operation of
    upstream reservoirs to maintain adequate flows at
    the appropriate/required places.

46
NWM UNDER NATIONAL ACTION PLAN ON CLIMATE CHANGE
  • National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)
    describes the features of National Water Mission
    as under
  • A National Water Mission will be mounted to
    ensure IWRM helping to conserve water, minimize
    wastage and ensure more equitable distribution
    both across and within states.
  • Mission will take into account provisions of NWP
    and develop a framework to optimize water use by
    increasing water use efficiency by 20 through
    regulatory mechanisms with differential
    entitlements and pricing.
  • Mission will seek to develop new regulatory
    structures, combined with appropriate
    entitlements and pricing.
  • This comprehensive mission document of National
    Water Mission identifies the strategies and
    methodologies in respect of Assessment of Impact
    of Climate Change Changes in Policy, Practices
    and Institutional Framework Measures for
    Mitigation as well as Measures for Adaptations.

47
EPILOGUE
  • Demand for water growing rapidly? rise in
    population, industrialization, urbanization and
    change in lifestyles.
  • Concern earlier for water quantity only, now
    equal concern for water quality.
  • Growing concern about the impact of CC on WR has
    thrown a new challenge.
  • Urgent adaptive measures are required to meet all
    eventualities.

48
Let us work for improving maintaining health of
our rivers
  • THANKS
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