Arms conversion for a low carbon economy

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Arms conversion for a low carbon economy

• Dr Stuart Parkinson

http//www.sgr.org.uk/
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Introduction

• There has long been pressure for UK to adopt less
  aggressive foreign/ military policies and cut
  back on military industry
• 1970s/80s arms conversion initiatives not very
  successful
• e.g. proposals to convert Lucas Aerospace and
  Barrow shipyards to renewable and other civilian
  technologies
• End of Cold War led to some shift in 1990s

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UK remains major military spender/ exporter

• UK military budget is worlds 4th largest
• Up 21 since 1999
• UK is home to 2nd largest arms company
• UK is 5th largest arms exporter
• UK spending per person is 2.5 times that of
  Russia and 17 times that of China
• UK spending per person/ per unit GDP is much
  larger than EU average

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Military v climate spending

• Some example figures from UK (2008)
• Sector
• Military equipment budget 13.4bn
• Renewable energy subsidies lt1.0bn
• Research development (publicly funded)
• Military 2,220m
• Renewable energy 66m
• Technology
• One eurofighter typhoon costs 90m
• For this cost, a 90 MW wind farm could be built

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Current major UK military procurement
Number Estimated procurement cost
Typhoon fighter aircraft 232 21 bn
Trident replacement (including submarines, nuclear warheads infrastructure) - 15-20 bn
Aircraft supercarriers (including aircraft) 2 12-14 bn
FSTA tanker aircraft 14 13 bn
FRES armoured vehicles 3,500 6 bn
Type-45 destroyers 6 3.6 bn
Astute submarines 3 3.5 bn
Total at least 74 billion
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But...

• How can it be that it takes 20 years to buy a
  ship, or aircraft, or tank? Why does it always
  seem to cost at least twice what was thought?
  Even worse, at the end of the wait, why does it
  never quite seem to do what it was supposed to?
• Ministry of Defence report
• (leaked to The Times, 24 August 2009)

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Lifetime cost estimates

• Trident replacement
• Including 3-4 submarines, missiles, warheads,
  infrastructure, operation (30y)
• About 97 bn
• Aircraft supercarriers
• Including 2 carriers, fighter aircraft,
  surveillance aircraft, operation (50y)
• At least 31 bn

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Military v civilian job creation

• Military industry is capital-intensive
• Expensive
• Low job creation for investment
• Highly specialised jobs
• High use of materials and energy
• Civilian sectors
• Generally more labour-intensive, including
  renewable energy, energy efficiency and public
  transport sectors

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Job creation potential
Overall Employment Effects of Spending 1 Billion
for Alternative Spending Targets in U.S. Economy,
2005
Sector Number of jobs created Number of jobs relative to defence/ military spending
Defence/ Military 8,555 -
Tax cuts 10,779 26
Health care 12,883 50
Education 17,687 107
Public transport 19,795 131
House construction efficiency improvements 12,804 50
Source University of Massachusetts (2007)
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Resistance to change

• Highly specialised industrial workforce
• Committed to standards and procedures required by
  Ministry of Defence
• Working to specific technical requirements which
  are not generally applicable to other industrial
  areas of work
• Jobs directly and indirectly dependent on
  government policy

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Job dependency

• Jobs directly dependent on MoD equipment spending
• Only approx. 2 of manufacturing sector 0.3 of
  total UK employment
• Most jobs in regions of high employment (e.g.
  South East England)
• Regional development assistance can be directed
  to areas which are more vulnerable to job losses,
  e.g. Barrow (Cumbria)

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Past shifts from military to civilian industry
in UK

• Post-conflict demobilisation
• e.g. After World Wars
• Closure of (US) military bases
• As Cold War drew to a close
• Jobs in military/defence sector fell from 625,000
  in 1985/86 to 410,000 in 1995/96
• Similar shift could take place now, with
  decommissioning (e.g. Trident) providing some
  jobs during the transition period

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Potential job creation in UK from arms conversion
Study Policy change Initial job loss Eventual job creation
York University (2001) Cut arms exports by 50 49,000 67,000
BASIC (2007) scenario 1 Cancel aircraft super-carriers 20,000 30,000
BASIC (2007) scenario 2 Cancel Trident replacement 65,000 105,000
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Conclusions

• Spending on military sector is considerably
  higher than climate sector
• Climate (and other civilian) sectors have much
  greater job creation potential than military
• With political will and careful planning, a major
  shift could be achieved which would inject tens
  of billions into the low carbon economy