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Europe United we stand, divided we fall

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Title: Europe United we stand, divided we fall


1
Europe United we stand, divided we fall
.. but what are we at present?
2
Racial, religious territorial issues in Europe
ONGOING VIOLENCE Spain Basques
UNEASY TRUCE Balkans Muslims - Serbs
CEASEFIRE - CESSATION Ireland Protestants -
Catholics
DORMANT or EXTINCT France Bretons - French
ECONOMIC /or POLITICAL Belgium Walloons -
Flemish Germany East-west Italy North -
South Greece Macedonia Greece/Turkey
Cyprus Britain/Spain Gibraltar New Europe Olde
Europe
3
The Races of Europe
Immigration Problems Turks - Germany Arabs -
France/Spain Pakistanis - UK Albanians etc - Italy
4
European Languages
5
Religion
Christianity - Protestant -
Catholic Islam Jewish Religion
6
The Iron Curtain
7
THE BALKANS
F.Y.R.O.M.
8
CYPRUS
9
CYPRUS
  • small country, but major problem for Europe
    Turkish entry depends on resolution
  • should Turkey be admitted to EU? Is it
    "European"?
  • strategic geographical position
  • large, but non-extreme Muslim country
  • large number of Turks in Germany (Gastarbeiter)
  • entry contentious within between European
    states
  • human rights problems death penalty etc
  • Turkey's attitude to its past Kurdish problem,
    Armenian massacre - 1915 to 1918

10
TURKEY
11
TURKEY
12
CYPRUS
  • Ottoman Turks ruled Cyprus for over three
    centuries ceded to Britain in 1878
  • Independence from Britain achieved August 1960,
    after four-year military struggle between UK and
    guerrillas of EOKA (National Organization of
    Cypriot Fighters) who sought enosis (union
    with Greece) - which was anathema to Turkish
    community
  • political leader of liberation movement,
    Archbishop Makarios - also head of islands Greek
    Orthodox Church - returned from exile and
    elected President December 1959
  • islands new constitution was elaborate
    compromise between British and rival Greek and
    Turkish communities, between whom considerable
    distrust remained
  • as part of deal, British kept two large tracts of
    land for military purposes, known as Sovereign
    Base Areas and accounting for 5 per cent of
    islands total area
  • deal fell apart in July 1974, when Makarios was
    deposed by military coup (allegedly backed by
    military regime in power in Greece)
  • within days, Turkish troops arrived on northern
    coast of Cyprus, invited by Turkish Cypriot
    leader, Rauf Denktash, to intervene in order to
    protect Turkish community on island
  • Greeks failed to respond effectively, not least
    because of simultaneous collapse of military
    junta in Athens, besides which
    Greek-Cypriot-controlled National Guard was
    insufficiently equipped to combat fully
    mobilized army
  • after Turkish army had taken control of northern
    third of island, ceasefire arranged under UN
    auspices

13
CYPRUS
  • island partitioned ever since and UN peacekeeping
    forces maintain truce
  • in November 1983, Turkish part of island
    proclaimed itself Kuzey Kibris Turk Cumhuriyeti
    (Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, TRNC) -
    however, formal recognition of self-styled
    country only granted by Turkey and a few
    statelets
  • TRNC still run by Rauf Denktash - dominant
    political figure in enclave for almost 30 years -
    at last two presidential elections - April 1995
    and April 2000 - re-elected with comfortable
    majorities
  • for vast majority of international community,
    legitimate government of Republic of Cyprus
    (Kiprikai Demokratika) is Greek-Cypriot
    administration in Nicosia - until February 2003
    led for a decade by President Glafkos Clerides -
    that month, he was deposed at most recent
    presidential election by Tassos Papadopoulos,
    candidate of center-right Komma Dimokratika
    (Democratic Party)
  • present government is coalition of DIKO, AKEL -
    Communist Party which has long been single
    largest force in Greek-Cypriot politics - and
    smaller KISOS party
  • principal issue for Greek-Cypriot government
    remains same how to normalize relations with
    TRNC and reunify island.
  • numerous diplomatic initiatives ended in failure
    - main sticking points are
  • - balance and concentration of power within any
    unified government
  • - Turkish troop concentrations in north
  • - return of property relinquished by Greek
    refugees and since occupied by Turkish settlers

14
The Disunited States of Europe?
BELGIUM
Flemish
Walloons
15
The Disunited States of Europe?
BELGIUM - the Walloons (wolunz'),
  • group of people living in S Belgium who
    traditionally spoke dialect of French called
    Walloon, but who today mostly part speak standard
    French
  • Walloons, numbering some 3.5 million, reside
    mostly in provinces of Hainaut, Liège, Namur,
    Luxembourg, and Walloon Brabant, in contrast to
    Dutch-speaking Flemings of northern provinces
  • movement for reviving Walloon literature centered
    in Liège in the 19th cent. today the language
    is considered moribund
  • since medieval times economic and social
    background of Walloons has differed radically
    from that of Flemings, and cleavage became even
    more pronounced with Industrial Revolution
  • Walloon part of Belgium contains major mining
    areas and heavy industries, while Flemings
    engage mainly in agriculture, manufacturing
    (particularly textiles), and shipping
  • tension between Walloons and Flemings has long
    been critical political issue in 1970 plan was
    approved recognizing cultural autonomy of
    Belgium's three national communities
    Dutch-speaking Flemings of the north, the French
    speaking Walloons of the south, and bilingual
    Brussels

16
The Disunited States of Europe?
GERMANY
  • reunification 1990
  • massive economic gaps
  • OstMark given parity with Dmark
  • billions transferred west to east
  • special tax on "Wessies"
  • not only economic, but cultural gulf
  • bureaucracy
  • high social benefits
  • endemic unemployment
  • public refusal to give up "acquis"
  • socialist/capitalist divide still strong .

17
The Disunited States of Europe?
ITALY
North of Rome
  • industrial - bulk of economy
  • many small/medium business
  • many family-owned business
  • fashion, style, engineering adaptability was
    trump card
  • large black market (27?)
  • serious competitivity problems
  • some call for return of lira

South of Rome
  • agricultural - little industry
  • earthquake-prone
  • Vesuvius!!

18
GIBRALTAR
ceded to Britain in perpetuity by the Treaty of
Utrecht, 13 JULY 1713
19
BASQUE COUNTRY
many Basques want independence long-running
"terrorist" (or "liberation") movement considerab
le autonomy granted by Central government
20
European Languages
21
Religion
22
European Nation States
23
The Iron Curtain
24
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27
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33
The CAP the Budget Money, money, money!!!!
34
The EU BUDGET - CONTRIBUTORS IN 2004
35
The Common Agricultural Policy
A Success?
  • introduced in 1960 - aim to provide a reasonable
    standard of living for farmers and
    reasonably-priced food for all
  • intention also (especially in France) to maintain
    traditional pattern of farming - avoid massive
    drift away from country to cities
  • facilitated free movement of farming products
    within the EU
  • after lean war years, concern to ensure reliable
    food supply and self-sufficiency
  • this aim succeeded in fact, there is now
    oversupply
  • oversupply has led in past to so-called
    "butter-mountains" and food dumping

36
The Common Agricultural Policy
A Failure?
  • medium and larger farms are paid not to produce
    smaller ones rely on subsidies
  • some rich farmers are paid to leave their fields
    fallow (unused)
  • subsidies do not go to all farmers mainly to
    dairy farming
  • the CAP accounts for 42 of the EU budget,
    limiting investment in other areas
  • it distorts world trade in agriculture
    developing countries are particularly penalised
    they can't penetrate the EU
  • cost of subsidizing poor farmers in new EU
    countries will put unbearable strains on budget
    reform is essential
  • reform will be strongly resisted by current
    beneficiaries
  • Britain and France in particular have immovable
    positions

37
The British French positions on agriculture
  • Britain said it will veto any cut in the 4.4bn
    euro (3bn) rebate unless farm subsidies are
    overhauled, a stance which puts it at
    loggerheads with France.
  • French President Jacques Chirac refused to
    discuss any cut in farm subsidies and says the
    rebate should "under no circumstances be linked
    to a reform of farm expenditure."

From the EU summit meeting in June, 2005
Where the money goes ---gt
38
The Subsidization of Farming in the World
limits this places on African exports to rich
countries now a hot, political topic
39
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40
Symptomatic of EU budgetary problems The
British rebate
French President Jacques Chirac defends French EU
farming subsidies against the British, wielding
their famous rebate
"The problem is the imbalance of the budget 40
of the budget goes to meet the needs of 5 of the
population and 2 of European jobs." Tony Blair,
July 2005
41
SPAIN PORTUGAL EU cash business rapid
development South American leanings
SCANDINAVIA detached,calm uncorruptible business-
oriented high taxation common market
The EuroTango
UK common market close to USA "liberal"
economy anti-regulation anti-Brussels lower
taxation
EAST EUROPE fears Russia pro-USA -
anglophile low taxation lots to catch
up business EU money development
IRELAND incoming investment favourable
business climate grab the money while it lasts
GERMANY industrial powerhouse major
exporter unemployment East-West divide political
turmoil over-regulated high tax less anti-US
"Olde Europe"
FRANCE anti-USA, statist powerful
lobbies (farmers, civil servants) high
taxation cultural fears "social model" France's
place in world insular tendancy
ITALY style, chic small businesses big
North/South divide struggling to compete call for
lira return dodgy politics
HOLLAND usually the good guys business-oriented f
ed up immigration paying too much taken for
granted
BALTICS dynamic, go-ahead ambitious anti-regulati
on high potential fear Russia
42
A View from the USA Robert J Samuelson,
"Washington Post" - June 15th, 2005
  • Europe is slowly going bust - not just because
    it's overshadowed by Asia and USA
  • Europe's birthrates have dropped well below the
    replacement rate of 2.1 children for each woman
    of childbearing age
  • for Western Europe as a whole, rate is 1.5 - it's
    1.4 in Germany and 1.3 in Italy
  • already about 17 of the population is 65 and
    older
  • by 2030 that would be 25, and by 2050 almost 33
  • How can European economies support so many old
    people?

43
The European Economy .
  • Europe's economy already weakening - in 1970s
    annual growth for the Euroland countries
    averaged almost 3 from 2001 to 2004 the annual
    average was 1.2 percent
  • in 1974 those countries had unemployment of 2.4
    percent in 2004 the rate was 8.9
  • Western Europeans feel their way of life
    threatened.
  • one solution to low birthrates is higher
    immigration
  • but many Europeans don't like the immigrants they
    have and don't want more
  • one way to revive growth would be to reduce
    social benefits, taxes and regulations
  • but that would imperil Europe's "social model,"
    which supposedly blends capitalism's efficiency
    and socialism's compassion

44
What about the USA, as reported by OECD?
  • unemployment with high unemployment benefits,
    almost half of Western Europe's jobless out of
    work a year or more U.S. figure about 12
    percent
  • early retirement in 2003 about 60 percent of
    Americans aged 55 to 64 had jobs. comparable
    figures for France, Italy and Germany were 37,
    30 and 39
  • Europeans like early retirement, high jobless
    benefits and long vacations
  • sources of this benevolence (high taxes, stiff
    regulations) weaken economy - with ageing
    populations, contradictions will only grow
  • some research suggests that high old-age benefits
    partly explain low birthrates - with the state
    paying for old age, who needs children as
    caregivers?
  • high taxes may also deter couples from assuming
    added costs of children
  • other countries are also aging and face problems
    similar to Europe's, but the ageing is more
    pronounced in Europe and a few other nations
    (e.g. Japan), precisely because birthrates are
    so low
  • U.S. birthrate, for example, is 2.1 even
    removing births to Hispanic Americans, it's
    about 1.9

45
What about the USA, as reported by OECD?
  • Europeans could do something about their
    predicament - but mostly they're not
  • some countries (Britain, Ireland, the
    Netherlands) have acted, and there are
    differences between East and West Europe
  • But in general Europe is immobilized by its
    problems
  • classic dilemma of democracy - too many people
    benefit from status quo to change it but status
    quo isn't sustainable
  • status quo in France called "les acquis" (e.g.
    train drivers, school university teachers)
  • even modest efforts in France and Germany to curb
    social benefits have triggered backlashes and
    government cave-ins
  • many Europeans - maybe most - live in a state of
    delusion believing things should continue as
    before they see almost any change as menacing
  • All this bad for Europe - and the United States
  • a weak European economy is one reason the world
  • economy is shaky and so dependent on American
    growth

46
  • Europe is preoccupied with divisions at home, but
    is looking to the past
  • Europe not strong American ally, not only because
    it disagrees with some U.S. policies but also
    because it doesn't want to make the commitments
    required
  • unwilling to address their genuine problems,
    Europeans become more reflexively critical of
    America
  • this gives the impression that they're active on
    the world stage, even as they're quietly
    acquiescing in their own decline
  • French fear of cultural swamping adds to the
    mixture as does "Olde Europe's" search for a
    role on world stage
  • France traditionally anti-American (Anglo-Saxon)
    de Gaulle prevented UK entry into EU and once
    withdrew from NATO and find alternative to it
  • France's schizophrenia towards UK and USA .
  • Iraq ..
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