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Peak Oil

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Title: Peak Oil


1
Peak Oil
1
Transition Training 2008
2
1
Peak Oil- What is it?
  • Peak oil is the point at which we can no longer
    increase the rate at which we extract crude oil
    and globally, annual petroleum production goes
    into irreversible decline.
  • This typically happens when an oil province has
    extracted roughly ½ of all the oil that is ever
    going to be extracted from that province - it is
    not when the oil runs out.
  • This slide illustrates why the sum total of a
    collection of oil fields in a region when added
    together creates a peak at about the half way
    point in production

3
Typical Oil Well
2
Transition Training 2008
4
Peak Oil- What is it? How an Oil Well works
2
  • Initially the oil is under pressure and when you
    drill into the oil bearing rock, the pressure
    drives the oil out of the stone and upwards to
    the surface.
  • You can drill several wells into the same field,
    increasing output from that field.
  • After a time the pressure begins to fall so
    production falls. To get the last recoverable oil
    out water or gas is pumped into the field.

5
3
Two Typical Oil Fields
Forties Field UK Sector North Sea
Prudhoe Bay, Alaska
Transition Training 2008
6
Peak Oil- What is it? Oil Field Production
3
  • These two large oil fields illustrate the basic
    dynamics of oil production
  • A steep initial increase, a production plateau
    and then a slow but irreversible decline.
  • Once the peak is past there are many techniques
    and technologies that can brought to maximise the
    declining output, but it is a losing battle and
    production will never return to it former levels.

7
Peak Production Follows Peak Discovery
4
USA
Russia
Egypt
Indonesia
Transition Training 2008
8
Peak Oil - What Is It? Peak Production Follows
Peak Discovery
4
  • Oil production peak follows oil discovery peak,
    usually 25-40 years later.
  • This is the time it takes to get production going
    after the initial finding.
  • In country after country and oil province after
    oil province the pattern is broadly the same
    four examples are shown of countries that have
    peaked.
  • Globally we are now discovering 1 barrel of oil
    for every 5 or 6 that we use.

9
5
UK Production Profile
Transition Training 2008
10
When Will It Happen? UK Oil Production Profile
5
  • This is the pattern in the UK, showing oil
    production from the North Sea.
  • Each coloured band shows a different oil field.
  • Britains production peaked in about 2000 and is
    now in steep decline.
  • Britains oil and gas will be virtually gone in
    15 years.
  • US oil production peaked in 1970.
  • Natural Gas Production Peaked in North America in
    2003.

11
Global Oil Discovery and Production
6
Transition Training 2008
12
6
When Will It Happen? Global Oil Discovery,
Production and Demand
  • To produce oil you first have to discover it.
    World discovery peaked in the late 1960s and has
    been falling ever since, and despite rapidly
    improving and sophisticated, technology, there is
    no prospect of it ever increasing.
  • At the same time production has been rapidly
    rising.
  • Demand is projected to go on rising, (with
    production failing to keep up), especially in
    rapidly industrialising countries like China and
    India, and
  • is leading to rapidly rising oil prices.

13
When Is The Global Oil Peak?
7
Transition Training 2008
14
When Will It Happen? When Will Global Oil
Production Peak?
7
  • The argument is when will we peak, not whether.
    This graph shows various predictions of the
    global oil peak. They cluster around 2010, with a
    few optimistic analysts, predicting a peak many
    years in the future.
  • Dr James R. Schlesinger, former US Energy
    Secretarystated in 2007, You (peak oilists) are
    no longer the beleaguered small minority of
    voices crying in the wilderness. You are now main
    stream.
  • The predictions are from government bodies like
    the International Energy Agency, oil companies
    like BP, and independent researchers like Chris
    Skrebowski.
  • Global Liquid Natural Gas and Crude Oil
    Production appears to have peaked in May 2005
  • - www.theoildrum.com, December, 2007.
    This may change.

15
Post peak oil producers (64)
Oil producers (98)
8
www.lastoilshock.com
Transition Training 2008
16
When Will It Happen?Of the 98 producers 64
countries have already peaked
8
  • There are 98 countries in the word that produce
    oil, some large some small.
  • The countries in red are the countries that are
    now post peak.
  • Their oil production is now in decline and
    nothing they can do will ever reverse that.
  • Of 98 producers 64 have already peaked. Anyone
    who tries to tell you that peak oil is a myth
    should look at one of these countries- not one
    has ever failed to follow the Hubberts peak
    and then decline

17
Exports from oil producers
9
Transition Training 2008
18
When Will It Happen? Exports from Oil Exporting
Nations
9
  • Oil exporting nations are using their oil for
    their own internal consumption at an ever
    increasing rate.
  • Oil is often very cheap, like in Saudi Arabia,
    30p per gallon, so there is no incentive to
    conserve.
  • As their economies are booming, and their
    population is also growing rapidly, this means
    they have less oil to export.
  • Oil export peaked in 2005, and after a short
    plateau, is declining rapidly. This is very bad
    news for countries like the USA which need to
    import 16 million barrels of oil a day.
  • FSU Former Soviet Union
  • UAE United Arab Emirates

19
8020 Rule
10
  • The worlds giant oilfields are in steep decline

Transition Training 2008
20
When Will It Happen?8020 Rule Decline of
the Giant Oil Fields
10
  • The 8020 rule is that 80 of your result comes
    from the first 20 of your effort with
    diminishing returns after that
  • In oil terms we find the easy to find and produce
    oil first - the largest oil fields. 50 of global
    oil is produced by the 120 largest oil fields in
    the world (out of over 4000 fields)
  • This graph shows that discovery of giant oil
    fields peaked in the late 1960s. Now we find
    very few giant (greater than 1 billion barrels)
    oil fields, and that rate of discovery is
    declining.

21
WHERE WE GET OUR ENERGY
11
Source ExxonMobile web site
Transition training 2008
22
11
Why Is Oil So Important?
It is frightening how dependent we are on fossil
fuels. We have only begun the move away from
fossil fuel energy. Even if we were to double
the amount of energy we get from renewables, and
then double it, and then double again, which
would be a heroic achievement, it would still
only create 3 of energy requirements.
23
If peak oil was imminent, what sorts of things
would be happening as warning signs the Canary
in the Coal mine?
12
  • Transition training 2008

24
When Will It Happen?
12
  • Light sweet crude peaks. This is the most
    profitable and easy to extract and refine oil, so
    it will be exploited first.
  • The worlds largest oil fields peak and begin to
    decline.
  • More and more oil producing countries start to
    decline.
  • Oil price increases rapidly, and then maybe
    crashes, erratic behaviour.
  • Exports from oil producers peak and start to
    decline.
  • Oil producer countries take control of their
    resources.
  • .......all this has happened, and has
    accelerated, in the last 5 years

25
13
Why Is Oil So Important? How Many Men Does It
Take To Push a Car?
Transition Training 2008
26
Why Is It So Important? The Phenomenal Energy in
Gasoline
13
  • Oil is highly energy-dense. One gallon of
    gasoline contains approximately 500 human hours
    work!
  • A typical fill-up of 16 gallons is approximately
    equal to 8000 human hours
  • or about 4 work-years (approximately
    2000hrs/yr).
  • Most of us take for granted the amount of energy
    we have at our disposal instantly, everyday. No
    human society had anything near the amount of
    energy before the discovery of fossil fuels.

27
What Do We Use Oil For?
14
Transition Training 2008
28
Why Is Oil So Important?What do we use oil for?
14
  • Our entire way of life, and a bewildering array
    products are reliant on oil.
  • Transport is only the beginning of our oil use.
  • Many products are derived from, or use oil or gas
    as their raw material. Plastics, synthetic
    fibres, drugs, laminates, paints, ink the list
    is endless
  • The so called Green revolution , modern
    agriculture depends on oil. Fertilisers and
    pesticides are made from oil and natural gas,
    tractors and machinery use it, irrigation
    requires huge amounts of energy and this is
    before food miles, processing, and storing,
    cooking, and packaging and retailing are taken
    into account.
  • Industry and even the service sector use huge
    amounts of energy.

29
15
No Country Has Yet Decoupled Economic Growth From
Energy Use
Transition Training 2008
30
15
Why Is Oil So Important?
  • Economic growth requires growth in our energy
    supply.
  • We have an economic system that is dependent on
    growth.
  • Therefore we are dependent on increasing supplies
    of energy.
  • All forecasts of economic growth also show rising
    energy demand.
  • When peak oil arrives we will have less total
    energy so economic growth will slow and probably
    decline, perhaps permanently
  • What does this imply for the US economic bailout
    program?
  • IMF International Monetary Fund, the
    international organization that oversees the
    global financial system
  • GDP Gross Domestic Product the nominal value
    of all final goods
  • and services produced within a nation in a
    given year
  • PPP Purchasing Power Parity per Capita GDP
    divided by the
  • average (or mid-year) population for
    the same year

31
The Carbon Cycle
16
Transition Training 2007
32
The Active Carbon Cycle
16
  • The carbon dioxide cycle is a natural one ,and
    one that has been in dynamic balance and
    undergone many fluctuations and cycles over
    millions of years.
  • There is a balance between the seas and the land
    and the atmosphere. Carbon is locked up in the
    seas in plankton and other marine life, and
    dissolved in the water. Carbon is also locked up
    in plant matter on the earth (active carbon
    cycle), and in fossil deposits (inactive carbon
    cycle) of oil, natural gas, and coal.
  • The destabilising factor in the carbon cycle is
    that we have taken the locked up (inactive)
    carbon from fossil fuels and put that carbon in
    the atmosphere. The land and the sea carbon sinks
    are unable to absorb this excess carbon.
  • GtC Giga (109) Tons of C

33
What Is Climate Change?
17
Transition Training 2007
34
17
Define Climate Change The term "climate change"
is sometimes used to refer to all forms of
climatic inconsistency, but because the Earth's
climate is never static, the term is more
properly used to imply a significant change from
one climatic condition to another.
What is causing Climate change or Global
Warming? Rising human made CO2 concentrations in
the atmosphere.
It this a theory? Yes
Why? Because it is trying to establish two cause
and effects. Firstly that CO2 is the cause of
global warming and secondly that humans are
causing it through the burning of fossil fuels.
35
Is it Proven?
18
Transition Training 2007
36
18
  • Have Both Cause and Effects Been Proven?
  • Is the earth warming, and are humans causing it?
  • Main Point
  • Yes, as much as a scientific theory can be
    proven. It It has been confirmed by the
    International Panel for Climate Change is a
    worldwide group of scientists who have reviewed
    all available scientific research.
  • Detail
  • The 4th IPCC report published in 2007 states,
  • 1- Warming of the climate system is
    unequivocal.
  • 2- Most of the observed increase in
    globally averaged temperatures
  • since the mid-20th century is very
    likely (confidence level gt90)
  • due to the observed increase in human
    greenhouse gas concentrations.
  • (This is scientific speak for
    yes!)
  • This United Nations study, which was just awarded
    the 2007 Nobel peace prize, was the most
    comprehensive study of peer reviewed climate
    research ever undertaken, and one of the most
    comprehensive studies of any scientific question
    ever. Its conclusions are that there is no more
    debate, the science is clear. The only question
    is how fast can we act to create real reductions
    in atmospheric CO2.

37
What are the main problems with out of control
CC?
19
Transition Training 2007
38
What are the Main Problems with Out of Control
CC?
19
  • Main Points
  • Severe one in a hundred year weather events
    becoming common
  • Sea level rises, leading to increasing land loss
    and cc refugees
  • Species loss
  • Additional Points
  • Increased droughts/desertification. This slide is
    of the Australian Murray River system, which has
    faced an extreme multi year drought. The
    government has had to take the decision to
    allocate whatever water there is to the cities
    rather than allow farmers to irrigate their
    crops. This has lead to a decrease in the
    Australian wheat harvest of 35 this year.
    Australia is one of the bread baskets of the
    world.
  • Increased floods- like this year in the UK.
  • Acidic seas
  • Species loss due to temperature zones migrating _at_
    the rate of 2km/yr. This will accelerate species
    loss due to habitat loss, as many species of
    plants and animals will be unable to migrate with
    the temperature. We face a potential of 50 or
    more loss of life on earth. We are depended on
    the web of life for our survival.

Transition Training 2007
39
CO2 Levels Over the Past 60000 Years
20
381 ppm 2006
  • Ron Oxburgh

Transition Training 2007
40
The Natural Carbon Cycle and Human Effects
20
  • Main points
  • This shows the ice core data measuring
    atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last
    60,000 years. As you can see CO2 levels have
    risen and fallen. To keep the climate from
    warming more than 2 degrees C we would have to
    keep CO2 concentration to below 450ppm
  • They are currently at 380ppm without counting the
    other GHG which are Methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs.
  • Additional Points
  • The last ice age ended 20,000 years ago and lead
    to a rise in CO2, and if we went back a few
    100,000 years we would see this pattern of rise
    and fall. What happens next (in red) shows the
    result of a new agricultural system, and human
    population increase, and then the green shows the
    beginning of the industrial era and the burning
    of fossil fuels. The orange is the 20th 21st
    century.

41
The Urgent Need for a Response
21
Transition Training 2007
42
21
  • The Need for an Urgent Response
  • Once global temperatures rise to certain levels
    positive feedback loops will cause further
    releases of greenhouse gases, leading to runaway
    climate change
  • On the best evidence we need to keep temperature
    rises to less than 2 C.
  • Emissions already made have not yet had their
    full impact so we are perilously close to
    reaching this even if we reduce emissions
    dramatically now.
  • Positive Feedback loops
  • For example if the arctic tundra melts it will
    emit so much methane, a powerful green house gas,
    that it will dwarf human CO2 emissions.

43
22
44
22
45
22
Has the Continental US Been Impacted by Climate
Change?
YES! This image depicts the Hardiness Zones of
the US in 2006. The zones are based on ranges of
mean low temperature. The following image
reveals that many of the zones have moved North
100-150 miles since 1990
46
Responses to Peak Oil Climate Change
23
  • CLIMATE CHANGE
  • Climate engineering
  • Carbon capture and storage
  • International emissions trading
  • Climate adaptation
  • Nuclear power
  • PEAK OIL
  • Burn everything!
  • Relaxed drilling regulations
  • Biofuels
  • Tar sands and non- conventional oils
  • Resource nationalism
  • Resource Wars
  • P O C C
  • Systems Re-Think
  • Planned Relocalization
  • Local Resilience
  • Energy Descent
  • Action Plan

47
Response to PO and CC
23
  • Looking at peak oil alone you look for
    replacements tar sands, remote fields such as
    the Arctic, Antarctic, bio fuels, coal to
    liquids.
  • If we dont reduce oil dependency in rich
    countries there will inevitably be either climate
    disaster from replacements or resource wars.
  • Looking at climate change alone you may look for
    energy intensive solutions to mitigate climate
    change, including nuclear.
  • When PO and CC are taken together you have to
    redesign the system a low energy, re-localised
    and resilient system is the only viable future.

48
fini
49
Peak Oil Climate Change
  • PLANNED RELOCALISATION
  • local resilience
  • carbon reduction
  • consume closer to home
  • produce closer to home
  • play closer to home
  • decentralised energy infrastructure
  • the Great Reskilling
  • localised food
  • local medicinal capacity
  • local currencies
  • Energy Descent Plans
  • CLIMATE CHANGE
  • (a la Stern et al.)
  • climate engineering
  • carbon capture and storage
  • tree-based carbon offsets
  • international emissions trading
  • climate adaptation
  • improved transportation logistics
  • nuclear power
  • PEAK OIL
  • (a la Hirsch et al.)
  • coal to liquids
  • gas to liquids
  • relaxed drilling regulations
  • massively scaled biofuels
  • tar sands and non-conventional oils
  • resource nationalism and stockpiling

50
What can be done?
  • Global
  • Oil Depletion Protocol
  • Contraction and Convergence
  • Kyoto
  • National
  • TEQs, Cap Share (energy rationing)
  • Community
  • Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural
  • Personal
  • The work that reconnects
  • lessons from addiction counselling
  • getting Gaiaed
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