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Global%20Warming

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Global Warming Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World? By Rich Deem www.GodAndScience.org Note: This show is NOT meant to be printed. – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Global%20Warming


1
Global Warming
  • Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the
    World?
  • By Rich Deem
  • www.GodAndScience.org
  • Note This slideshow is NOT meant to be printed.
    View in slideshow mode only because of extensive
    builds and animations. Go to the website for a
    printable copy.Requires PowerPoint 2003 or
    PowerPoint Viewer 2003.

2
Introduction
  • Is the world getting warmer?
  • If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for
    earths temperature increases?
  • What can/should be done about these issues?
  • Are the potential resolutions worth the cost to
    implement them?

3
History of Earths Climate
  • Earth formed 4.6 billion years ago
  • Originally very hot
  • Suns energy output only 70 of present
  • Liquid water present 4.3 billion years ago
    (zircon dating)
  • Much of earths early history erased during late
    heavy bombardment (3.9 billion years ago)

4
History of Earths Climate
  • Life appeared 3.8 billion years ago
  • Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion years ago
  • Produced oxygen and removed carbon dioxide and
    methane (greenhouse gases)
  • Earth went through periods of cooling (Snowball
    Earth) and warming
  • Earth began cycles of glacial and interglacial
    periods 3 million years ago

5
Earths Temperature
6
Earths Temperature
7
Earths Temperature
8
Earths Temperature
9
Greenhouse Effect
Sun
10
Earths Atmospheric Gases
Non-Greenhouse Gases
gt99
Greenhouse Gases
lt1
11
Runaway Greenhouse Effect
Sun
  • 97 carbon dioxide
  • 3 nitrogen
  • Water sulfuric acid clouds
  • Temperature860F

12
Carbon Dioxide
13
Carbon Dioxide Levels
420
370
320
CO2 (ppm)
270
220
Vostok Ice Core
Dome Concordia
170
200000
400000
600000
0
Time (YBP)
14
Worldwide Carbon Emissions
8
7
6
5
Carbon (109 metric tons)
4
3
2
1
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Year
15
Annual Carbon Emissions
8
6
Carbon (109 metric tons)
4
2
0
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
Year
16
Future Carbon Dioxide Levels
  • Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in China and
    developing countries
  • Likely to double within 150 years
  • Increased coal usage
  • Increased natural gas usage
  • Decreased petroleum usage (increased cost and
    decreasing supply)

17
Kyoto Protocol
  • Adopted in 1997
  • Cut CO2 emissions by 5 from 1990 levels for
    2008-2012
  • Symbolic only, since cuts will not significantly
    impact global warming

18
Past Temperatures
19
Recorded Worldwide Temperatures
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
D Mean Temperature (C)
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
20
Historic Los Angeles Temperatures
21
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
22
Past Temperatures Measurement
  • Proxy a method that approximates a particular
    measurement (e.g., temperature)
  • Tree rings
  • Ice cores
  • Pollen records
  • Plant macrofossils
  • Sr/Ca isotope data
  • Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite
    (stalactites and stalagmites)

23
Temperature History of the Earth
  • Little ice age (1400-1840) 1C cooler
  • Medieval warm period (800-1300) 1C warmer than
    today
  • Cool/warm cycles occur 1,500 years
  • Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North
    Atlantic
  • Mostly due to changes in thermohaline circulation
    ?
  • Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline circulation
    occurred 8,200 years ago as a large lake in
    Canada flooded the North Atlantic

24
Main Ocean Currents
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2
25
Temperature History of the Earth
  • For the past 3 million years, the earth has been
    experiencing 100,000 year long cycles of
    glaciation followed by 10,000 year long
    interglacial periods
  • These climate periods are largely the result of
    cycles in the earths orbit precession,
    obliquity, and eccentricity

26
Orbital Parameters Precession
Perihelion
Apehelion
27
Orbital Parameters Obliquity
28
Orbital Parameters Eccentricity
Maximum 0.061
Minimum 0.005
Not to scale!
To Scale!
29
Orbital Parameters Earths Climate
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Age (kya)
30
Temperature History of the Earth
  • For the past 3 million years, the earth has been
    experiencing 100,000 year long cycles of
    glaciation followed by 10,000 year long
    interglacial periods
  • Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but
    was interrupted by the Younger Dryas event
    12,900 years ago

31
Younger Dryas Event
-25
0.35
-30
0.30
-35
0.25
Snow Accumulation (m/yr)
-40
0.20
Temperature (C)
-45
0.15
-50
0.10
-55
0.05
0
5
10
15
20
Age (kya)
32
Younger Dryas Event
-34
-8.0
YoungerDryas
-35
-7.5
-36
-7.0
-37
-6.5
-38
-39
d18O (Greenland)
-6.0
d18O (China)
-40
-5.5
-41
-5.0
-42
-4.5
-43
-44
-4.0
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Age (kya)
33
Temperature History of the Earth
  • Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya)
  • Temperatures 2C higher than today.
  • 20C higher at high latitudes
  • 1C higher at the Equator
  • Sea levels were 100 ft higher
  • Causes
  • CO2 levels that were 100 ppm higher
  • Increased thermohaline circulation

34
Temperature History of the Earth
  • Eocene (41 million years ago)
  • Opening of the Drake Passage (between South
    America and Antarctica).
  • Increased ocean current exchange
  • Strong global cooling
  • First permanent glaciation of Antarctica 34
    million years ago

35
Temperature History of the Earth
  • Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya)
  • Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8C
  • Causes
  • Increased volcanism
  • Rapid release of methane from the oceans

36
Temperature History of the Earth
  • Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya)
  • Much warmer
  • Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland
  • Causes
  • Different ocean currents (continental
    arrangement)
  • higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times higher
    than today, up to 1200 ppm)

37
A Compilation of Phanerozoic Atmospheric CO2
Records
6000
5000
4000
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (ppmV)
3000
2000
1000
0
30
60
Continental Glaciation (Paleolatitude)
90
S
D
Carb
P
Tr
J
K
Pg
Ng
Paleozoic
Mesozoic
Cenozoic
400
300
200
100
0
Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010107576-580
38
Recent Temperature Changes
39
Hockey Stick Controversy
0.6
Direct temperature measurements Mann et al. 1999
0.4
0.2
0
Temperature Change (C)
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Year
40
The Problem with Tree Rings
0.3
Jones et al. 1998 Briffa et al. 1999 Mann et al.
1999
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
Temperature Change (C)
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Year
41
What Influences Tree Rings?
  • Temperature
  • Rainfall
  • Carbon dioxide concentration

42
Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
2
Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002
1
0
Temperature Change (C)
-1
-2
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Year
43
Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
Temperature Change (C)
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
Year
44
U.S. National Academy of Sciences June 2006
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Temperature Change (C)
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Year
45
Atmospheric Temperatures
Troposphere
Stratosphere
0.8
1.5
0.6
1.0
0.4
0.5
0.2
Temperature Cgange (C)
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.5
-0.4
-1.0
-0.6
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
Year
Year
46
CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature
370
320
31
30
SST (C) Tropical Pacific
CO2 (ppm) Antarctica
270
29
28
220
27
26
170
25
0
200000
400000
600000
Time (YBP)
47
Consequences of Global Warming
48
Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern
Hemisphere
Northern vs. Southern Latitude
Land vs. Ocean
1.0
Land Ocean
Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Temperature Change (C)
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1920
1960
2000
1920
1960
2000
Year
Year
49
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
50
Ice Sheets Melting?
  • GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found
    melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level
    rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century)
  • Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry)
  • confirmed Antarctica melting
  • Greenland ice melting onexterior, accumulating
    inland(higher precipitation)

51
Melting Glaciers Mt. Kilimanjaro
52
Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass
1000
800
600
400
200
Ice Mass (km3)
0
-200
-400
-600
2003
2004
2005
Year
53
Rise in Sea Levels?
  • Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)
  • Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006 mm/yr2
  • If acceleration continues, could result in 12
    in/century sea level rise
  • Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are
    unrealistic

54
Changing Sea Levels
20
10
0
Relative Sea Level (cm)
-10
Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie,
Poland
-20
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5
55
Sea Levels for 450,000 Years
31
20
0
30
-20
29
-40
Sea Level (m)
28
SST (C) Tropical Pacific
-60
27
-80
26
-100
-120
25
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Time (KYBP)
56
Increase in Hurricanes?
  • Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes
    has not changed
  • However, the intensity of hurricanes has
    increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and
    cyclones)
  • Probably due to higher sea surface temperatures
    (more energy)
  • Difficult to know if this trend will continue

57
How Much Temperature Increase?
  • Some models propose up to 9C increase this
    century
  • Two studies put the minimum at 1.5C and maximum
    at 4.5C or 6.2C
  • Another study puts the minimum at 2.5C

58
Wildlife Effects
  • Polar Bears
  • Require pack ice to live
  • Might eventually go extinct in the wild
  • Sea turtles
  • Breed on the same islands astheir birth
  • Could go extinct on some islandsas beaches are
    flooded
  • Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns
    change throughout the world

59
Effect on Humans
  • Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat
  • Decreased thermohaline circulation
  • Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic
  • CO2 fertilization effect
  • Precipitation changes
  • Droughts and famine (some areas)
  • Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union

60
Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes
61
Drought in Africa
Lake Faguibine
Lake Chad
62
Cost to Stabilize CO2 Concentrations
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)
800
600
400
200
0
450
550
650
750
Carbon Dioxide (ppm)
63
Possible Solutions to Global Warming
64
Mitigation of Global Warming
  • Conservation
  • Reduce energy needs
  • Recycling
  • Alternate energy sources
  • Nuclear
  • Wind
  • Geothermal
  • Hydroelectric
  • Solar
  • Fusion?

65
Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations
  1. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs
  2. CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery
  3. Deep saline formations (a) offshore (b) onshore
  4. CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery

4
1
3b
3a
2
Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7
66
Global Warming Myths
67
Global Warming Has Stopped?
0.8
0.6
0.4
D Mean Temperature (C)
0.2
0.0
-0.2
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
68
Volcanoes Put Out More CO2 Than Fossil Fuel
Burning
10
8
6
Carbon (109 metric tons)
4
2
0
69
Global Warming is Caused by Sunspots
250
0.8
0.6
200
0.4
150
0.2
Sunspots
D Mean Temperature (C)
0.0
100
-0.2
50
-0.4
0
-0.6
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
70
Hadley Temperatures Vs. Sunspots
250
1.5
1.0
200
0.0
150
Sunspots
D Mean Temperature (C)
-0.5
100
-1.0
50
-1.5
-2.0
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Year
71
Global Warming is Caused by GCR
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
D Mean Temperature (C)
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
72
CO2 Vs. Temperature
CO2 Vs. Sea Level
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
Time (ybp)
Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and
global sea level closely coupled over the last
five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2500.
73
Global Warming is Due to Urban Heat Islands
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
74
Mt. Kilimanjaro Glaciers are Melting Because of
Global Warming
75
Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern
Hemisphere
Northern vs. Southern Latitude
1.0
Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Temperature Change (C)
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1920
1960
2000
Year
76
Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft?
  • Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)
  • Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006 mm/yr2
  • If acceleration continues, could result in 12
    in/century sea level rise
  • Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are
    unrealistic
  • Recently, the California State Lands Commission
    said that sea levels could rise 55 inches this
    century, inundating ports

77
Changing Sea Levels
20
10
0
Relative Sea Level (cm)
-10
Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie,
Poland
-20
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5
78
How Much Temperature Increase?
  • Global warming alarmists propose up to 9C
    increase this century
  • Two studies put the minimum at 1.5C and maximum
    at 4.5C or 6.2C
  • Another study puts the minimum at 2.5C

79
Predictions Vs. Reality
Exponential Increase in carbon emissions
Moderate reduction in carbon emissions
Drastic reduction in carbon emissions
Observed temps through 1988
Hansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research
939241.
80
Temperature Extrapolation
2.5
2.0
1.5
DT (C)
1.0
0.5
0
-0.4
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
1960
Date
81
Conclusions
  • Global warming is happening
  • Most warming is probably the result of human
    activities
  • There will be positive and negative (mostly)
    repercussions from global warming
  • The costs to mitigate global warming will be high
    better spent elsewhere?
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