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The Future of ICT in Relief

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What is fundamental in disaster relief? ... For relief operations, ... in Relief Looking Back The world is an increasingly unsafe place to be Banda Aceh ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Future of ICT in Relief


1
The Future of ICT in Relief
  • RedR Conference, London
  • December 5, 2007
  • Edward Granger-Happ
  • CIO, Save the Children
  • Chairman, NetHope

2
  • "The art of prophecy is very difficult--
    especially with respect to the future." --Mark
    Twain

3
Looking Back
"Progress, far from consisting in change, depends
on retentiveness. Those who cannot remember the
past are condemned to repeat it. --George
Santayana
4
The world is an increasingly unsafe place to be
5
Banda Aceh Ground Zero
5
6
What are the key questions?
  1. What is fundamental in disaster relief?
  2. What is fundamental in long-term development?
  3. Is technology a benefit to communities in crisis?
  4. For relief operations, do we bet on on-line or
    off-line applications?
  5. Can supply chain management (SCM) be a
    competitive advantage for nonprofits?
  6. What is commodity and what is value-added for a
    non-profit?

7
What is this large object?
  • a very large ship 5 miles inland in the middle of
    the road

8
Changing Priorities By Program Type
Ranking factors 1-4, 1highest
For emergency response, time and volume are king
for development, cost and quality reign
9
In 7 yrs, cost drops 30x and speed increases 400x
10
Stages of a Disaster
  • Stage 0 Preparedness
  • Relief agencies
  • Collaborate and determine roles in a disaster
  • Determine systems of data, voice, video and
    physical exchange
  • Develop a protocol for engagement
  • Catalog relief resources
  • Partner with local communities
  • Prepare to engage, inform and steward potential
    donors
  • Example STC earthquake preparedness in Georgia

11
Stages of a Disaster (cont.)
  • Stage 1 Within hours of disaster striking
  • First relief workers arrive on the ground.
  • Survey and assess damage, transmit pictures,
    security information, relief material and
    personnel requirements to Head Offices.
  • Agencies decide how deeply involved they will be
    with relief efforts.
  • Locating family members (people dont eat, clothe
    themselves or sleep until they found their loved
    ones)
  • Example CRS in sectarian fighting in eastern
    Congo
  • This is the Highly Individual, Highly Mobile ICT
    stage

12
IRAQ
12
13
Stages of a Disaster (cont.)
  • Stage 2 Within two weeks of disaster striking
  • Teams begin to arrive on the scene as risk of
    disease and malnutrition escalates.
  • Requirements are continuous monitoring of
    disaster, assessment of victim needs, management
    of relief material deployment between and across
    aid agencies, personnel security, application and
    reporting of donated funds, uploading of case
    studies, pictures and relief reports.
  • Example Relief International in Bam, Iran
    earthquake
  • Small Group, Highly Mobile/Temporary ICT stage

14
Stages of a Disaster (cont.)
  • Stage 3 From one-six months following a
    disaster striking to multi-year.
  • Agencies provide resources for building
    reconstruction, counseling, family reunification,
    food distribution, water purification, etc.
  • Agencies become part of the community over a long
    period of time.
  • Example Actionaid in tsunami relief in southern
    India
  • Large Group - Permanent ICT stage

15
Stages of a Disaster (cont.)
  • Stage 4 Learning
  • Lessons learned
  • Agencies determine what worked and what did not
    work
  • Then make adjustments
  • Example NetHope members in Pakistan earthquake
    response

16
An NGO Supply Chain
Assessment
Reporting
Country Sub-Office
Plan
Ship
Warehouse
Ship
Ben. Track
Procure
  • For development, procurement is competitive for
    emergency response, procurement is pre-determined
    and agile
  • Beneficiary tracking is key in the NGO supply
    chain commercial SCM applications lack this

17
Looking Ahead
18
A Triad of IT Drivers
Metcalfs Law the network effect is exponential
Nielsens Law high-end user's connection speed
grows by 50 per year
Moores Law CPUs double every 18 months
19
Verizon FIOS Service
  • 100 MB/sec fiber to homes!
  • This is the same speed as the backplane of a
    laptop 3 years ago!

20
Bottom Line?
  • Dont Bet Against the Network!
  • By the time it will take you to work around the
    connectivity issues, the network will be where
    you need it to be.

21
What if were wrong?
  • Strategy is about making bets!

22
Advice from a Hockey Legend
I skate to where the puck is going to be, not
where it has been. --Wayne Gretzky
23
A Leading Indicator
24
Another Leading Indicator
25
Current University Students
  • I asked Dartmouth Graduate students
  • So what do you use to communicate more, IM or
    Texting?
  • Answer Neither
  • Neither?
  • We do everything in Facebook

26
Its the Social Network not the Wired Network
27
Why?
  • The social network is the future
  • Working together in loose-tight ways
  • Loose geography (e.g. the NGO community)
  • Tight purpose (e.g. disaster relief)
  • Richer collaboration (e.g. NetHope)

28
  • If youre a CIO, you need to spend a lot of
    time out on the fringes of the Web because thats
    where the innovations taking place. You need to
    spend a lot of time with people under 25 years
    old. Gary Hamel

29
Did You Know? presentation, Arapahoe High
School in Centennial, Colorado, United States.
30
For the rest of the world, this is the Internet
31
(No Transcript)
32
Key strategic questions
  • If we will have all the bandwidth we need
    globally, what changes for relief applications?
  • If the 1 device used in emergency response is
    the cell phone, what changes when the cell phone
    can operate like todays laptops?
  • Do we build disconnected applications for the
    interim or wired applications for the future?
  • ONE MORE TIME Where is the puck going to be?

33
Questions?
34
Appendix
  • Additional detail slides

35
Top Ten Themes
  1. Continuing explosion of computing hardware
    triangle
  2. Global communication growing geometrically
  3. Commoditization of technology components
  4. Retirement of the current middle class
  5. Flattening from triple convergence
  6. Run-the-business software (ERP)
  7. Increasing regulatory framework
  8. Results-oriented philanthropy
  9. Rise in world-class, operational excellence
  10. Rise in merger and acquisitions

36
On Leaders and Followers
  • First-movers the pioneers, trail-blazers, fast
    agile leaders but with higher costs and higher
    risksrequires serious focus
  • Second-movers the fast followers capitalize on
    the mistakes/learning of pioneers follow the
    successes, but need to overcome the leaders
  • Frugal-movers the pragmatic followers more
    cautiously follows industry leaders, picking what
    works well, waiting for lower costs of entry may
    constantly be in catch-up mode
  • Late-movers the laggards, miss most
    opportunities, resist change sometimes luck-out

37
Key strategic either-or bets
  • Follower
  • IT focused on operations
  • More effective-efficient service depts
  • Add results-oriented ME data/reporting when
    donor demand is unavoidable
  • Build technology and operations incrementally
  • Capacity building by staffing and training
  • MOS operations
  • Leader
  • Programs leveraging technology
  • More effective and efficient programs
  • Lead NGOs and set the results-oriented ME data
    and reporting standard
  • Leapfrog competitors by buying the best
    operations
  • Capacity building by staffing, training
    leveraging technology
  • World class operations

38
Pendulum Dichotomies - IT cycles over the past 50
years
  • Left Brain (60s, 90s)
  • Centralized
  • Standardized
  • Generalized
  • Rationale
  • Autocratic
  • Big is Better
  • In-source
  • Tight
  • Right Brain (70s, 80s)
  • Decentralized
  • Customized
  • Specialized
  • Creative
  • Democratized
  • Small is Beautiful
  • Outsource
  • Loose

The next wave?
39
1. Continuing explosion of the computing hardware
triangle
  • Applications data will be distributed
    in-country, closest to sources
    lowest-cost-to-maintain locations, yet will seem
    as if we are running programs on our desktops.
  • Continued time-compression made possible by
    readily available, cheaper faster technology
    means an increasing real-time involvement in each
    others work, and donor participation in programs.
    This will drive greater levels of collaboration,
    but not always in ways we expect or want. For
    example, fact that donors providers will be
    able to virtually participate in program
    planning, delivery evaluation, may be
    unwelcome, but inevitable.
  • Cheaper, faster information communication
    technology (ICT) will also mean that where work
    gets done will become less relevant highly
    flexible. Working real-time in groups while in
    different locations will become commonplace, as
    will employees working from home, on road, etc.
  • These trends will also drive greater levels of
    collaboration among NGOs, as is already evident
    with consortia like NetHope, LINGOS IWG/ECB.
  • Increased 24 x 7 connections will continue to
    drive up stress make it more difficult to
    unplug from work. Productivity gains rapidly
    produce information saturation, high stress
    burn-out. Managing work-life balance will
    therefore become a major organizational issue
    need in near future.

40
2. Global communication will -continue to grow
geometrically
  1. Digital divide among world's population will
    widen rather than narrow as acceleration in
    computing outpaces global adoption. Efforts to
    bridge this gap will need to double triple.
    Educating adolescents on use of computers as a
    way to break cycle of poverty will become
    increasingly important from a programmatic
    standpoint.
  2. Need for technology education programs among
    emerging countries will increasingly become a
    requirement for children to thrive as productive
    adults.
  3. Most strategic use of technology is to deliver
    wholly new programs, or existing programs in
    wholly new ways, that would not be possible
    before application of technology. This means
    thinking abut programs in a new way
  4. For dissemination of information (outward flow),
    technology can play a more capacity building
    role. This impacts all of sectors. flip side is
    collection reporting of information (inward
    flow) from beneficiaries to providers in terms of
    basic ME data.

41
3. Commoditization of technology components
  • shift from development to integration (already
    one of IS strategic shifts) will continue to
    accelerate.
  • Moving IT work to regions and country offices
    will need to become part of our IT strategy.

42
4. Retirement of the current middle class
  • Immediate impact will be on staffing positions
    (technology and others!), with a resulting
    sellers market and bidding war among
    organizations. This will require three
    responses
  • moving more jobs offshore, developing our field
    locations to do more headquarters jobs,
  • moving up food chain to do higher-level tasks in
    HQ (e.g., integration rather than development for
    IT), and
  • use of more standard, off-the-shelf software and
    tools.
  • opportunity is keep aging workers engaged, with
    more creative retirement and semi-retirement plans

43
5. Flattening from triple convergence
  1. Internet revolution means (1) new global playing
    field, (2) new businesses processes (3) entry
    of huge workforce of China, India Soviets
  2. Donors will increasingly expect to work directly
    with field programs, to do so virtually,
    working through the Internet. Those nonprofits
    that are able to offer this will increasingly
    attract donors who expect this.

44
6. Run-the-business software
  1. Save will increasingly be in catch-up mode if we
    do not make leap to enterprise software.
  2. time investment to take this leap will become
    less attractive the longer we delay, forcing us
    to look to an acquisition strategy of buy it now
    rather than build it for later.
  3. most effective program delivery organizations
    will attract a greater share of donor
    contributions from ever more sophisticated donors
    who will have had first-hand experience with
    efficiently run corporate organizations expect
    this from nonprofits they support.
  4. success of the Alliance its long-term
    initiatives of Unified Presence Stronger
    Members will increasingly demand shared
    enterprise software.

45
7. Increasing regulatory framework
  • Increasing administrative systems support will
    be required to meet growing regulatory demands.
    Compliance will be more expensive than our
    physical security costs to-date
  • Choices
  • Do we build now in anticipation, or react
    after-the-fact?
  • When is the right time to invest?

46
8. Results-oriented philanthropy
  • Investment in higher-order systems will be
    required, such as Executive Information Systems
    (EIS), Balanced Scorecard systems (BSC),
    GYST-like program tracking systems
  • Choices
  • Do we lead NGOs and set the standard, or do we
    follow when donor demand is unavoidable?

47
9. Rise in world-class, operational excellence
  • increasing emphasis on process will require new
    sets of expertise among our employees to work in
    process-improvement mode
  • Significantly more data collection reporting on
    administrative programming processes themselves
    will be required. demand will rise for data,
    data, more data.
  • Nonprofit donors will increasingly expect direct
    access to this data

48
10. Rise in merger and acquisitions
  • key opportunity is for buying rather than
    building impact
  • For example, we are faced with prospect of
    spending 3-5M over next 3-5 years migrating from
    our legacy donor management system to a
    world-class system. Yet at end of this process,
    we will be where some of our competitor agencies
    are today
  • Choices
  • Do we build incrementally, or leapfrog
    competitors by buying the best?

49
From IS Staff Briefing
50
1. Continuing explosion of the computing hardware
triangle
  • Hardware triangle
  • Bandwidth Verizon FIOS service
  • Disk storage Google server farms
  • CPU speed Moore's law
  • As all three of these factors accelerate, the
    cost per unit continues to fall.
  • the cost of computing power is now around
    1/1,000 of 1 percent of what it cost 50 years
    ago.
  • PCs have dropped in price an average of 21 per
    year since their introduction
  • If the automobile had followed the same
    development cycle as the computer, a Rolls-Royce
    would today cost 100, get a million miles per
    gallon, and explode once a year

51
2. Global communication will continue to grow
geometrically
  • By 2010 there will be 2.5B mobile phones
    subscribers--twice as many as PC's
  • 88 per cent of e-mails are junk including 1 per
    cent virus-infected
  • e-mail messages rising by 84 per cent each year
  • 1,035 million mobile phone text messages sent
    each month in Britain
  • 37 average texts per user sent per month compared
    with 21 in 2001
  • 1 million children aged under 10 in Britain (1 in
    3) own a phone
  • 8 years old is the average age at which a child
    gets a mobile phone in Britain

52
4. Retirement of the current middle class
  • 50 of people in technology jobs will be leaving
    their jobs in the next 10 years.  With this will
    go their knowledge experience.  More
    importantly there are fewer technology people to
    take their place.  
  • NASA has 3 times number of people over 60 versus
    those under 30
  • More than 50 of IT workers in US government are
    eligible to retire by 2013
  • Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Case 40 of
    TVAs staff is eligible to retire in 5 years

53
5. Flattening from triple convergence
  • Internet revolution means
  • new global playing field,
  • new businesses processes
  • entry of huge workforce of China, India Soviets
  • See Thomas Friedmans book, The World is Flat for
    an abundance of evidence of the trends so far in
    the 21st century.

54
6. Run-the-business software
  • There will be nonprofit Enterprise Resource
    Planning (ERP) systems that will standardize and
    streamline all administrative processes. It will
    then extend to the processes of delivering
    programs themselves.
  • Blackbauds new strategy to be the Enterprise
    Resource Planning (ERP) vendor to nonprofits
  • Children Internationals (CIs) recent porting of
    a mid-enterprise ERP to their sponsorship
    business model
  • CARE, World Vision and the World Food Programs
    adoption of the enterprise-wide GYST program
    management and reporting system

55
7. Increasing regulatory framework
  • Following the impact of Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) on
    for-profits, we can expect an increasing
    regulatory framework for non-profits.
  • Changes in the annual IT audits at nonprofits
    strongly indicate this trend as do recent
    charitable regulation changes in CA and NY
  • For example, the total SC/US audit costs have
    increased 38 since FY04 the IT portion has
    increased 50 based on time required to complete
    it.

56
9. Rise in world-class, operational excellence
  • Following corporations, we can expect a rise in
    world-class, operational excellence to be a
    factor in nonprofit success.
  • We will see streamlining programs such as Work
    Out, Six Sigma and Lean Thinking applied to
    nonprofits
  • Our own recent experience with business process
    improvement (BPI) in Leadership Giving, and the
    streamlining task force are cases in point.

57
10. Rise in merger and acquisitions
  • We can expect to see a rise in merger and
    acquisitions for the nonprofit sector. This will
    result in combining of operations and the systems
    used to support them or the migration of one
    partners systems to the other
  • Having seen internal consolidations succeed for
    such recognizable groups as the Girl Scouts and
    the American Lung Association, nonprofits of
    various shapes and sizes are testing the waters
    for possible mergers and are often taking the
    plunge.
  • CSM notes that there are 1.3 million nonprofits
    today, growing at the rate of 7 per year (80,000
    to 90,000 new nonprofits are created each year)

58
Worldwide cellular access is exploding
59
International Internet Bandwidth Growth by
Region, 2002-2005
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