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Globalization and the BRIC

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Title: Globalization and the BRIC


1
Globalization and the BRICs Emergence
Understanding challenges and opportunities
2
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3
The BRICs
4
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5
Determinants of economic well-being
  • Environment and resources
  • Geography, climate, disease and demography (human
    and animal)
  • Human and non-human capital Land
  • Culture, philosophy and religion
  • Impact on motives, incentives and opportunities
  • Political and social institutions
  • Individual freedom vs. authoritarian control
  • Rule of law extent of arbitrary confiscation or
    taxation
  • Order vs. anarchy stimulate or retard economic
    expansion?
  • Markets The Division of Labour is Limited by
    the Extent of the Market
  • Incentives to trade and save (requires protection
    of property rights)
  • Competition versus exercise of monopoly power
  • Extraction of surplus what remains for capital
    accumulation?
  • Technologies and their application
  • Diffusion of new ideas and incentives for their
    application (Commercial links promoted the spread
    of new technologies)
  • Freedom to reap the rewards from investment
    (capital accumulation)

6
Specificities of BRICS
  • Wide variation of production structures
  • heterogeneity of production systems
  • heterogeneity of demand
  • Shortage of capital and knowledge
  • Wide regional differences
  • gap between the most and the least developed
    regions enormous and still growing.
  • Wide income differences
  • extremely high open and hidden unemployment among
    unskilled workers
  • there may be shortages of skilled labour

7
How to analyze the BRICs?
  • History
  • Politics
  • Culture
  • modes of insertion in globalization
  • FDI (scale and type very different)
  • Migration
  • source of both capital and skilled labour
    (Diasporas in China and India)
  • Brain Drain

8
BRICs Fundamentals
9
Size matters geography and demography
Surface (millions km2) Population (millions) Frontières terrestres (nombre) Urbanisation ()
Etats-Unis 9,61 310 2 82
Japon 0,38 127 0 66
Union Européenne (27) 4,42 501 19 74
Brésil 8,51 191 10 86
Russie 17,10 143 14 73
Inde 3,29 1210 6 29
Chine 9,64 1340 14 43
TRIADE 14,41 938 .. 74
BRIC 38,54 2884 .. 41


Sources ONU, World Population Prospects
Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística
China National Bureau of Statistics Office of
the Registrar General and Census Commissioner,
India Rosstat.
10
Population, area, density, total and per capita
GDP
11
The BRICs Population and GDP
Source EIU Country Reports Nominal GDP
converted to US billion for comparison
12
Share of global GDP
Dollars courants Dollars courants Dollars courants PPA PPA PPA
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
États-Unis 26 31 23 22 23 20
Japon 14 14 9 9 8 6
Union Européenne (27) 33 26 26 27 25 20
Brésil 2 2 3 3 3 3
Russie 1 1 2 5 3 3
Inde 1 1 3 3 4 6
Chine 2 4 9 3 7 13
Monde 100 100 100 100 100 100
Triade 73 71 58 58 56 46
BRIC 6 8 17 14 17 25
PPA Parité de pouvoir d'achat, dollars internationaux 2005 PPA Parité de pouvoir d'achat, dollars internationaux 2005 PPA Parité de pouvoir d'achat, dollars internationaux 2005 PPA Parité de pouvoir d'achat, dollars internationaux 2005 PPA Parité de pouvoir d'achat, dollars internationaux 2005 PPA Parité de pouvoir d'achat, dollars internationaux 2005 PPA Parité de pouvoir d'achat, dollars internationaux 2005
Source CEPII, base de données Chelem Source CEPII, base de données Chelem Source CEPII, base de données Chelem Source CEPII, base de données Chelem Source CEPII, base de données Chelem Source CEPII, base de données Chelem Source CEPII, base de données Chelem
13
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14
The BRICs GDP per Capita
Source EIU 2011 Country Reports GDP per Capita
at PPP
15
The BRICs Growth Rates
16
Distribution du PIB mondial (dollars
internationaux de 1990)
1700 1820 1950 1973
Brésil ,,, 0,4 1,6 2,4
Russie/Union soviétique 4,4 5,4 9,6 9,4
Inde 24,4 16,0 4,2 3,1
Chine 22,3 32,9 4,5 4,6
BRIC 51,1 54,7 19,9 19,5
Etats Unis 0,1 1,8 27,3 22,0
Europe 25,4 26,6 29,8 29,1
Japon 4,1 3,0 3,0 7,7
Monde 100 100 100 100
Source Maddison 2003 et Maddison 1995
17
PIB par habitant (dollars internationaux de 1990)
  1700 1820 1950 1973
États-Unis 527 1 287 9 573 16 607
Europe occidentale 1 024 1 228 5 513 11 694
Japon 570 704 1 873 11 017
Russie 611 751 2 834 6 058
Brésil 670 1 673 3 913
Chine 600 523 614 1 186
Inde 550 531 597 853
18
Rates of Growth of World GDP, 1700-2003 (annual
average compound growth rates)
Fonte Maddison A., Chinese Economic Performance
in the Long Run, OECD Development Centre, 2007.
19
Eurasia economic integration development
  • Europe was in relative decline after collapse of
    Roman Empire
  • Dark Ages and Middle Ages, through to c1500
  • Centuries of change, not stagnation but not
    sustained progress either
  • Contact with rest of world (Asia) via Middle
    East upheavals of political religious
    conflict, but trade continues too, even expands
  • East Asia Chinese civilisation developed early
    relative to Europe
  • Subject to Mongol invasion domination from 12th
    to 14th centuries
  • Sea-borne trade with south Asia, gradually
    extending westwards
  • Overland trade via silk road, the Levant and
    Venice
  • South Asia long history of diverse civilisations
  • Subject to periodic invasions (e.g. Moghuls)
    overland from the west
  • Sea-borne trade via Arabia, the Levant and Venice
  • Development of the European exception (economic
    success)
  • A great divergence emerged, but when? Probably
    not until after 1500, some argue not until as
    late as 1800 (the California School)

20
  • The divergence between the richest parts of China
    (Yangzi delta) and England occurred between 1750
    and 1800
  • What gave England/Europe the decisive advantages
    over the Yangzi delta/China were
  • 1) Colonies which ensured the supply of cotton,
    produced and processed with cheep slave labour
  • 2) Coal in locations near the industrial centers
  • Therefore England could escape the land
    constraint

21
Pomeranz pros and cons
  • Against involution thesis diminishing
    marginal returns because of population increase
    (Philip C. Huang)
  • Since then lively debates on issues of
    calculation and miscalculation
  • West was advanced in comparison to China
    Education (indicator book production)
  • China had coal and iron, not near Yangzi delta,
    but near Hankou, another industrial/entrepot
    city.
  • Moreover, transport was sophisticated in 18th c.
    China

22
Per capita GDP, main areas and countries (1990
PPP US billion)
Source Maddison A., Chinese Economic Performance
in the Long Run, OECD Development Centre, 2007.
23
GDP growth rate, main areas and countries (1990
PPP US billion)
Source Maddison A., Chinese Economic Performance
in the Long Run, OECD Development Centre, 2007.
24
GDP structure (demand side)
    Consommation Consommation Investissements Investissements  
Ménages Gouvernement Capital fixe Stocks Solde extérieur
Brésil 2000 64 19 17 1 -2
2009 63 21 17 0 0
Russie 2000 46 15 17 2 20
2009 55 20 21 -3 7
Inde 2000 64 13 23 1 -1
2009 57 12 34 1 -5
Chine 2000 46 16 34 1 2
  2009 37 14 44 2 9
Source UN Source UN Source UN
25
Growth Conditions
  • Sound, stable macroeconomic policies
  • Strong, stable political institutions
  • Openness
  • High levels of education
  • Miracle conditions are not needed.

26
  • Russia
  • As a single geopolitical entity, has existed for
    barely twenty years.
  • drastic political, economic and intellectual
    changes from the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet
    Union
  • Oil/natural resources dependence ? Dutch disease
  • Kremlin
  • China
  • Linear economic transformation since 1979
  • SOE reform
  • Private entrepreneurship
  • FDI
  • Less clear-cut political transformation
  • Beijing
  • Local level

27
  • Brazil
  • Internal cleavages ? complex political economy
  • Military experience
  • Political alternance
  • More stable than it seems?
  • India
  • Much greater diversity
  • A democratic miracle?
  • Economic transformation since 1991
  • Political alternance
  • Less stable than it seems?

28
Chinas economic development
Planned economy (1953-1978)
Transformation to market oriented
economy (1979-2004)
New era of development (2005-present)
10
9
5
Approximate average GDP growth rate
Source National Statistics Bureau,
http//www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ China Research
Center for Public Policy , http//www.crcpp.org/cp
ipphtml/en/en_sum_report/2007-11/20/200711200940.h
tml
29
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30
GDP structure (supply side)
Brésil Russie Inde Chine
  2010 2010 2009 e 2010
PIB 100 100 100 100
Agriculture 6 4 20 10
Industriebâtiment 27 37 25 47
Services 67 59 55 43
Note  e estimation Sources Statistiques nationales Note  e estimation Sources Statistiques nationales Note  e estimation Sources Statistiques nationales Note  e estimation Sources Statistiques nationales Note  e estimation Sources Statistiques nationales
31
Social development
Brésil Brésil Russie Russie Inde Inde Chine Chine
1993 2009 1993 2008 1993 2005 1993 2005
Pauvres en de la population Pauvres en de la population Pauvres en de la population Pauvres en de la population Pauvres en de la population Pauvres en de la population Pauvres en de la population Pauvres en de la population Pauvres en de la population
lt 1,25 13 4 3 0 49 42 54 16
lt 2,00 25 10 8 2 82 76 79 37
Inegalité Inegalité Inegalité Inegalité Inegalité Inegalité Inegalité Inegalité Inegalité
Coefficient de Gini () 60 54 48 42 31 33 36 35
32
Poverty measures income and multidimensional
33
Poverty Reduction in Brazil, China and India
Headcount indices of poverty for a common
international poverty line
  • Survey-based
  • Mixed method

Source Chen and Ravallion (2009).
34
BRICS and selected countries Gini index/ social
unequality
Source UNDP
  • Is the highly unevenly distributed income a
    serious development problem for Brazil and South
    Africa? Is China increasing social unequality a
    problem for the future?

35
Rémunération totale horaire dans le secteur
manufacturier, 2002-2008
36
Households according to disposable income bracket
in BRIC countries 2002/2007 000 households


Source Euromonitor International from national
statistics
37
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38
Growth in volume of world merchandise trade and
GDP (Annual change, 2005-13)
39
Growth in trade was strongest for Europe and Asia
40
EU has retained its importance as central in
the global trade network
41
Asian intraregional trade has expanded rapidly
since 1990
42
The Diffusion of Key Global Trade Players
43
Ratio of exports and imports of goods and
commercial services to GDP, 2007
Source WORLD TRADE DEVELOPMENTS
44
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45
Trade openness
  Exportations de biens et services en du PIB Exportations de biens et services en du PIB Importations de biens et services en du PIB Importations de biens et services en du PIB
1990 2009 1990 2009
Brésil 8 11 7 11
Chine 16 27 13 22
Inde 7 20 9 24
Russie 18 28 18 20
Japon 10 13 9 12
Etats-Unis 10 11 11 14
Source World Development Indicators Source World Development Indicators Source World Development Indicators
46
Poids des BRIC dans le commerce mondial de
marchandises ()
Exportations Exportations Exportations Importations Importations Importations
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
Monde 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0
Brésil 1,3 1,2 1,7 0,9 1,2 1,6
Russie n.d. 2,2 3,4 n.d. 0,9 2,1
inde 0,7 0,9 1,8 0,9 1,0 2,7
Chine 2,5 5,2 13,3 2,1 4,4 11,6
BRIC 4,5 9,4 20,2 3,9 7,5 18,0
Japon 11,6 10,0 6,5 9,2 7,5 5,8
Etats-Unis 15,9 16,3 10,8 20,1 24,9 16,4
UE 21,4 16,4 15,0 22,5 18,1 16,5
Triade 49,0 42,8 32,3 51,8 50,5 38,6
Source OMC Source OMC
Hors commerce intra-UE Hors commerce intra-UE Hors commerce intra-UE
47
Composition des exportations de biens et services
en 2009
Total Pr. industriels manufacturés Pr. primaires Agro-alim Autres pr. Services
Brésil 100 33 20 28 3 15
Inde 100 34 11 6 14 35
Russie 100 19 59 5 7 12
Chine 100 86 2 2 2 10
Source CEPII Base de données Chelem Source CEPII Base de données Chelem Source CEPII Base de données Chelem Source CEPII Base de données Chelem
48
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49
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50
China surpassing Japan as a more significant
regional and global consumer
51
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52
Gross exports may not appropriately capture the
extent of domestic value added export
53
Vertical specialization has increased since the
mid-1990s
54
G7 exports are still differentiated by price and
quality characteristics
55
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56
1) Tariffs, import licences and customs controls
  • Governments often justify these steps as
    short-term remedies for particular problems
  • AR new minimum prices for backpacks and prams
  • new tariffs on lawn-mower-blades in South Africa
  • cumulative impact is significant
  • barriers are easier to put in place than to
    remove
  • the share of trade held back by protectionist
    measures tends to grow over time
  • longer-run strategic decisions to distort markets
    in order to promote national industries

57
2) "Buy National" policies
  • Sarkozy 2012 Free trade, yes. Disloyal
    competition, no. Europe that opens all its
    public-procurement markets when others do not
    open them at allit's no.
  • EU must deal with the world with less naïveté
    (De Gucht)
  • Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2009 (U.S.-made
    steel and iron in federally funded construction
    projects).
  • China since 2009
  • purchase of foreign products or services in
    government-invested projects obtain approval by
    the relevant government authorities
  • expanded to other areas of government
    procurement, such as plans to limit official
    vehicle purchases to domestic brands)
  • Plano Brasil Maior (August 2011) local content
    requirements
  • Buy Indian policy (early 2012)
  • 80 of telecom equipment thru domestic
    manufacturing by 2020

58
3) technical barriers and safety regulations
  • TBT notifications per year (as of 2011)
  • 14 for DCs, 8 for EEs
  • notifications from emerging countries
  • TBT total number from 506 in 2007 to 968 in 2011
  • SPS from 488 in May 10-May 11 to 519 in May
    11-May 12
  • CN certification requirements for imported wind
    turbine generators (2011)
  • IN certification of seven new steel products to
    conform to national standards
  • China RoHS rules which mirrored EU restrictions
    on the use of hazardous substances in electrical
    and electronic equipment.

59
4) controls on foreign investment
  • Indonesia
  • 40 cap on ownership of any domestic commercial
    banks
  • foreign mining investors to reduce ownership to
    49 within 10 years, starting from the 6 year of
    commencement of production.
  • Argentina
  • 15 cap on foreigners' ownership of productive
    rural land 30 for foreigners of the same
    nationality (2011)
  • expropriation of 51 of Repsol shares in YPF
    (2012)
  • India
  • shelved legislation to open its retail sector to
    foreign companies, and in early 2012, a finance
    bill was proposed to allow India to retroactively
    tax the sale of Indian assets by non-Indian
    entities as far back as 1962, in an attempt to
    shore up tax revenues.

60
Is the EU naif?
  • public-procurement market accounts for 15-20 of
    GDP
  • some 40 countries have signed up to the
    government-procurement agreement (GPA) to open
    public contracts.
  • About 350 billion of EU contracts are open to
    foreign bidders
  • twice as much as in America and 13 times as much
    as in Japan
  • China is not a signatory, despite years of
    negotiations.
  • EC ideas
  • exclude tenders that contain more than 50 of
    goods and services from foreign countries not
    covered by GPA or other accords
  • allow national governments, municipalities and
    other bodies (though only with explicit EC
    support) to reserve contracts above 5m to
    bidders with 50 domestic content.

61
Doha development round
  • launched by the World Trade Organisation in 2001
  • Multilateral deals mean common standards and
    lower barriers for all
  • DDR is dead in all but name
  • the cause of liberalisation is being advanced by
    RTAs
  • from around 70 in 1990 to over 300 today.
  • China-ASEAN Free-Trade Area (30 of the world's
    population in 2010) Colombia and Peru w/EU, US,
    KR latest, EU-Singapore, announced on December
    16th.
  • Bigger deals are on the horizon
  • between EU and US (could be struck in 2013) and
    Japan (2014?)
  • Trans-Pacific Partnership between US and Pacific
    countries (2013)

62
East Asian countries are likely to emerge as the
largest trading bloc by 2015
63
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64
Emerging firms are superseding companies from
established countries
Southern Multinationals?
Source Fortune magazine A.T. Kearney analysis
65
An increase in deals between developing and
developed countries
Source Dealogic A.T. Kearney analysis
66
Firms from both developed and developing
countries target the same industries
Southern Multinationals?
Source Dealogic A.T. Kearney analysis
67
Table 2 Outward FDI, Top 20 Emerging Economies,
1980-2006 (USMillions)
Home Country 1980 1990 2000 2006 Rank (2006) Rank (2006)
South Africa 5 541 15 004 32 333 43 499 1 9
Argentina 5 970 6 057 19 276 24 047 14
Brazil 38 545 41 044 51 946 87 049 3 6
Chile 885 1 149 11 154 26 787 4 13
Colombia 136 402 2 989 9 960 5 20
Venezuela 23 1 221 7 676 11 559 6 19
Mexico 1 632 2 672 8 273 35 144 7 11
Panama 730 3 876 10 507 21 176 8 15
British Virgin Islands .. 875 67 132 123 512 9 3
Cayman Islands 72 648 20 788 40 395 10 10
United Arab Emirates - 2 14 1 938 11 830 11 18
China .. 4 455 27 768 73 330 12 7
Hong Kong 148 11 920 388 380 688 974 13 1
Korea 127 2 301 26 833 46 760 14 8
Taiwan 13 009 30 356 66 655 113 910 15 5
India 78 124 1 859 12 964 16 17
Indonesia 6 86 6 940 17 350 17 16
Malaysia 305 753 15 878 27 830 18 12
Singapore 623 7 808 56 766 117 580 19 4
Russia - - 20 141 156 824 20 2
68
Southern Multinationals?
Source OECD, June 2009
69
Surging corporate bond spreads
Southern Multinationals?
Emerging-market corporate bond (CEMBI)
spreads Jan 2007 Feb 2009
Basis points
Source JPMorgan
70
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71
What consequences for OECD countries?
Policy implications
  • More competition in developing countries (e.g.,
    resources in Africa) Southern FDI as an
    alternative to MNCs from the North ?
  • A subtle game OECD MNCs maintain complex and
    multi-level relations (e.g. Chevron-CNOOC,
    competing for Unocal, cooperating elsewhere)
  • FDI promotion pro-active policies to attract FDI
    from emerging economies
  • As in the case of developing countries, issues
    related to impact have to be considered.

72
Chercheurs (milliers) Chercheurs (milliers) Chercheurs, en du total mondial Chercheurs, en du total mondial DIRD par chercheur (millier de dollars Ppa) DIRD par chercheur (millier de dollars Ppa) Publications scientifiques Publications scientifiques
2002 2009 2002 2007 2002 2007 Croissance 2002/08 total mondiale 2007
Brésil 72 125 1,2 1,7 181 162 110,6 2,7
Russie 492 442 8,5 6,5 32 50 6,2 2,7
Inde 116 155 2,3 2,2 103 127 91,7 3,7
Chine 811 1152 13,9 19,7 48 72 174,7 10,6
BRIC 1490 1844 25,9 30,1 91 103 95,8 19,7

OCDE 3588 4200 61,7 57,6 184 216 22,3 76,4
73
Brazil
  • in 1906, Alberto Santos Dumont claimed to have
    built the worlds first practical airplane
    following the Wright Brothers demonstration
  • Research workforce capacity and investment are
    expanding rapidly, offering many new
    possibilities in a diversifying research
    portfolio
  • Relative to the rest of the world, has
    exceptional capacity in biology-based disciplines
    (40 of the worlds bio-ethanol) and research
    related to natural resources
  • main international partners are led by G7
    economies. It also has growing links with
    Portugal, and appears to be a key player in an
    emerging regional network.
  • produces over 500k new graduates and about 10k
    PhD researchers each year, a similar number to FR
    and KR (10-fold increase in 20 yrs)

74
Russia
  • The old Soviet Union was a scientific force to be
    reckoned with. The 1957 launch of the Sputnik
    satellite literally changed the practice of world
    science, spurring not only the space race with
    the United States but a new global era of
    government investment in science and technology
  • budgets for science and technology have been
    sharply reduced (budgets for research amounting
    to 3-5 of comparably sized institutes in the
    United States)
  • Russian scientists are aging
  • serious brain drain dates from the early 1990s
  • decline in the prestige of science as a profession

75
India
  • The tradition of science in India extends back
    millennia, with Aryabhatta, Bhaskara,
    Brahmagupta, and others still celebrated for
    their foundational contributions to the fields of
    mathematics, astronomy, and chemistry.
  • notable scientific successes via government
    directives such as the Scientific Policy
    Resolution (1958), the Technology Policy
    Statement (1983), and Science and Technology
    Policy (2003)
  • government spending on science research currently
    accounts for roughly 0.9 of GDP by 2012, the
    figure is expected to rise to 1.2
  • availability of qualified researchers has not
    kept pace with the increased funding
  • brain drain ? talent circulation ? return of
    expatriate researchers

76
China
  • more than half of the nations technologies,
    including atomic energy, space science,
    high-energy physics, biology, computer science,
    and information technology, have reached or are
    close to a recognizable international level of
    achievement
  • successful launch in October 2003 of the
    Shenzhou V manned spacecraft made China the
    third country to master manned spaceflight
    technology.
  • The Moon Probe project started in February 2004
    forecasts that China will soon launch unmanned
    probes to the moon and is targeted to gather moon
    soil samples before 2020.
  • state programs for science and technology (Key
    Technologies Research and Development Program,
    863 Program, 973 Program)
  • now ranks third worldwide in volume of Gross
    Expenditure on RD
  • current number of university students studying
    has reached 25 million, a five-fold increase in
    only nine years

77
Global knowledge challenges
  • Knowledge as an essential input as problem
    solving tool for global challenges ranging from
    agriculture, health, to energy saving, climate
    change to migration
  • Education very differentiated in terms of
    bilateral international relations (Bologna
    agreement spread to 36 countries)
  • Technology/innovation (local competitiveness
    Lisbon logic strong internal focus employment,
    increased tradability of technology output
    (licences, firms driven, etc.)
  • Different public-private involvement with on the
    public side a national tax payer obsessions
    (geographically bounded)
  • Rapidly growing different costs factors
    researchers costs in China (10 to 20 of
    US/Europe) as opposed to manufacturing (30)
  • Different mobility factors researchers/highly
    skilled much more mobile.

78
EU27 Innovation Lead vis-à-vis BRIC Countries
European Innovation Scoreboard (EIS) 2009
79
EU27-BRIC comparison
  • although the lead of the EU27 towards each of the
    BRIC countries is still significant, there are
    signs that IN and in particular CN are closing
    their gap
  • BR is outperforming in ICT expenditures and
    Knowledge-intensive services exports
  • CN is outperforming in ICT expenditures and
    High-tech exports
  • IN is outperforming in ICT expenditures and
    Knowledge-intensive services exports
  • RU is outperforming in Tertiary education and
    Researchers

80
CO2 emissions
81
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82
N-11
83
The world in 2000 and in 2040 (Shares of world
GDP at PPP)
2000 2040
2040 United States 22 14 14 EU-15/27 21
6 12 China 11 40 26 Others 46
41 50
Goldman Sachs
Source Robert Fogel (2009)
84
Expected average annual growth rates over next 50
years
Source Goldman Sachs
85
Largest Economies in 2005
86
The Largest Economies in 2050
87
Labor Force
88
Working Age Peaks Later Than in Developed World
89
Population aged 60 years or over Population aged 60 years or over Population aged 60 years or over Population aged 60 years or over Population aged 60 years or over Population aged 60 years or over Population aged 60 years or over Population aged 60 years or over Population aged 60 years or over Population aged 60 years or over
Number (million) Number (million)   Percentage of total population Percentage of total population   Share of persons 80 years or over Share of persons 80 years or over
Country or area Country or area 2009 2050   2009 2050   2009 2050

World   737 2 008   11 22   14 20
More developed regions More developed regions 264 416 21 33 20 29
Less developed regions Less developed regions 473 1 592 8 20 11 17

Brazil 19 64 10 29 14 22
Russia 25 37 18 32 16 19
India 89 316 7 20 9 13
China 160 440 12 31 12 23

Italy 16 22 26 39 22 34
UN-DESA, Population Division
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