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Future Management Landscapes

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Future Management Landscapes Ted Fuller ... Just pointing out that making sense of patterns is important at both a psychological level and at a social level ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Future Management Landscapes


1
Future Management Landscapes
  • Ted Fuller, University of DurhamMarch 2001
  • Creating Future Good Practice Workshop
  • Cyngor Rheolaeth Cymru
  • Wales Management Council

2
The future...
  • "Strategic foresight is the ability to create and
    maintain viable forward views and to use the
    insights arising in organisationally-useful
    ways".
  • Richard Slaughter

3
There are alternative futures
Who makes your future?
4
Foresight guides actions
  • Our present actions are guided by the
    interactions of
  • our interpretation of the past,
  • our assumptions about the present,
  • our expectations of the future.

Slaughter, R. A. (1995). The Foresight Principle
Cultural Recovery in the 21st Century. London,
Adamantine Press.
5
This presentation
  • Purpose
  • to provide a framework to think about the future
    of management
  • to stimulate ideas and challenge present thinking
  • Content
  • Todays driving forces on business
  • Society, change and the organisation of economic
    structures
  • Order and chaos
  • Management - bringing coherence to paradox and
    change
  • Learning as a production process

6
The near future driving forces?
Global communi- cations
Global financial institutions
Informatics digital represent- ation
Individualistic Consumption
Scientific Knowledge
7
Each driving force is implicated in a range of
cause/effect relationships
World trade
Global competition
Corporate structures
Global financial institutions
Labour migration
Nation state emasculation
Global logistics
Cultural hegemony
8
Each with a reaction!
Small business policies
World trade
Retention programmes
Global competition
Corporate structures
Global financial institutions
Labour migration
Nation state emasculation
Global logistics
Cluster policies
Cultural hegemony
Cultural imperatives and devolution
9
The tensions
  • How does society achieve progress in an age
    that announces the end of progress
  • How does society protect itself against the
    unwanted outcomes of its own actions
  • polarisation of wealth and opportunity
  • irreversible environmental degradation
  • exploitation of human frailty

Cf. the End of Progress in Hamel, G. (2000).
Leading the Revolution. Cambridge Mass, Harvard
Business School Press.
10
A complex world
Constructing sense
Order
Chaos
11
Constructing sense-patterns
12
(No Transcript)
13
Two dominant constructions of our times
How much change is the dominant power in
society prepared to risk?
14
Some dimensions of change...
15
Some scenarios arising...
Systemic uncertainty (chaos)
The entrepreneurial society
As now, but ever faster
tight social structure
loose social structure
Built to last institutions
The wired society
Systemic certainty (order)
16
Faster, faster...
  • The GE model
  • a corporate ecology
  • adaptive tension
  • you can get rich or you can get fired
  • successful people are moved to where they might
    fail
  • be 1st or 2nd or quit
  • production on a barge
  • no barriers to sharing knowledge

Faster Faster from Sparrow, O (1998) Open
Horizons, 3 scenarios for 2020, Chatham House
Forum GE case adapted from McKelvey (2000)
Dynamics of New science Leadership
17
Built to last...
  • In this scenario, the UK economy is built on the
    basis of stable, generally large corporations
    which have grown up to retain and protect their
    source of competitive advantage - the knowledge
    of their employees. Self-employment and contract
    working are correspondingly rare in the more
    productive sectors of the economy
  • We offer a full package of benefits share
    options, healthcare, insurance, social
    facilities, family benefits and nursery schools.
    We are proud of our education facilities, a
    corporate university open to all our staff with
    core time set aside for learning activities. We
    offer opportunities for work in different parts
    of the world through our network of sister
    companies. If you work hard for us, we will work
    hard for you."

DTI Future Unit - Work in the knowledge driven
economy
18
Wired World
  • In this scenario, the UK economy has become
    increasingly reliant on the self-employed as an
    engine of growth... based on secure electronic
    communications, which allow contract
    relationships to flourish.
  • One of their (workers) major bones of contention
    is that we have become a society in which
    relationships are treated as a commodity -
    everyone gets paid only for measurable services,
    which undervalues the intangible "human touch".
    Everybody's performance is measured, giving rise
    to a pervasive culture of monitoring."

DTI Future Unit - Work in the knowledge driven
economy
19
Entrepreneurial Society
  • The constitutive elements of an entrepreneurial
    life , by contrast with the wired life, include
    many of the basic virtues of careers. The
    entrepreneur assumes a defining commitment to
    develop an ignored practice that will resolve a
    disharmony on a small or large scale.
  • Entrepreneurs support others involved in similar
    ventures, as evidenced by the way successful
    entrepreneurs become venture capitalists.
    Finally in declaration of responsibility for a
    certain resolution of communal disharmony, they
    become authors of a continuous life story.

Flores, F. and Gray, J. (2000). Entrepreneurship
and the wired life. London, Demos.
20
A metaphor for the times...
  • '(an) evolving perpetually novel world where
    there are many niches with no universal optimum
    of competitor, where innovation is a regular
    feature and equilibrium rare and temporary and
    where anticipations change the course of the
    system, even when they are not realised.'

John Holland describing Complex Adaptive Systems
in 1995
21
Complex Adaptive Systems
  • Ecological metaphors. e.g.
  • emergence (of structure)
  • adaptation (learning)
  • co-evolution (generations and relationships)
  • fitness (competition and co-operation in niches)
  • Systemic perspectives
  • open, interconnected
  • Unit of analysis is patterns of coherence and
    order (e.g. networks / clusters)
  • Models as theories (Cf. business model)

Fuller, E. C. and Moran, P. (2000). "Moving
beyond metaphor towards a methodology for
grounding complexity in small business and
entrepreneurship research." Emergence A Journal
of Complexity Issues in Organizations and
Management 2(1) 50-71. Fuller, E. C. and Moran,
P. (2001). "Small enterprises as complex adaptive
systems a methodological question?"
Entrepreneurship and Regional Development 13(1).
22
Emergence - new enterprises from the local milieu
  • Old milieu
  • Natural resources
  • Local demand
  • Cultural crafts and skills
  • Clusters of activity

23
New milieu
  • Corporate-based business
  • Knowledge-based businesses
  • Values-based businesses

24
The corporate milieu
  • SMEs and corporates mimic each other
  • Widening corporate stake-holding in SMEs
  • Brand identity for products and services (even
    local/personal)
  • Corporate systems partners
  • system integrators
  • fulfilment houses
  • specialists

SME - Small and medium enterprises
25
The knowledge-based businesses
  • Emerging from science and technology
  • People-based,
  • e.g. technologists, advisers
  • Product based,
  • e.g. software, bio-diagnostics, media

26
Values-based enterprises
  • Emerging from private and public sectors
  • Quality of life as goal
  • Resonate with values of groups e.g. new
    co-operatives
  • Social entrepreneurs

27
Management
  • If nothing changed and if no conflicts existed
    there would be no need for management
  • Getting the work done would just be a matter of
    co-ordination

28
Management
  • Paradox
  • Change
  • Coherence

29
What is really changing?
  • The meaning of
  • Time
  • Space
  • Relationships
  • Power
  • Identity
  • Knowledge
  • Learning

30
Time
  • Paradox The red Queen effect - running fast to
    stand still
  • Change technology is not a tool, its an
    environment and competition is created from
    saving time in that environment
  • Coherence the meaning of time is being
    reconstructed, e.g. 365/24/7, JIT, internet
    years, work-time/home-time

31
Space
  • Paradox The technological promise of location
    independence has given rise to greater
    geographical concentrations
  • Change Flows of information are as important as
    flows of physical goods - space has a virtual
    dimension
  • Coherence Social principles apply to the human
    use of space
  • e.g. communities, cultures, tribes, belonging

32
Relationships
  • Paradox independent businesses are dependent on
    stakeholders
  • Change cosy relationships are quickly broken
    by external forces
  • Coherence the generation (emergence) of novelty
    from live relationships and the strength of weak
    ties

Granovetter, M. (1973). "The Strength of Weak
Ties." American Journal of Sociology 78(6)
1360-1380.
33
Power
  • Paradox The socially significant small
    enterprises are mostly harmless
  • Change The path is increasingly regulated with
    corporate/consumer inter-relations (e.g. brands,
    standards)
  • Coherence Collective power, open standards,
    customisation in niches of one

34
Self-identity
  • Paradox Self-identity created reflexively from
    others (professional career or consumption) not
    through your own creative acts
  • Change Rising social standing of
    entrepreneurship
  • Coherence achieve recognition by declaration of
    responsibility for resolution of disharmony (cf.
    Flores and Gray)

35
Knowledge
  • Paradox Deep knowledge comes from knowing and
    experiencing more about less
  • Change Process of manufacture separated from
    process of creativity
  • Coherence Capital created through specialisation
    and the co-ordination of distributed
    intelligence

36
Learning
  • Paradox When you sell knowledge, you keep it
  • Change Knowledge-based business codify
    knowledge or ideas and re-use them in novel ways
  • Coherence Learning takes an ever stronger
    work/economic perspective
  • Learning and the exploitation of knowledge is a
    real time production process

37
Summary
  • Todays driving forces on business create the
    learning landscape
  • Societys ability to deal with change and risk
    arising from complexity leads to a prominence of
    certain organisational types
  • Complex adaptive systems are open, ever changing
    and unpredictable, moving from one pattern to
    another - humans construct patterns of reality
  • Management is necessary to create coherence in
    the disharmony of the many building blocks of the
    socio-economic world - time/space/knowledge etc.
  • Learning is increasingly instrumental as a
    real-time knowledge production process

38
The challenge
  • If the near future is a more entrepreneurial
    society
  • and is evolving in complex ways
  • that change the social meaning of the basics...
  • then...
  • What are the implications for the roles and tasks
    of management?
  • What and how should managers learn?
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