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Global Warming

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Title: Global Warming


1
Global Warming
  • So What? .
  • Dr. Gene Fry .
  • January 2015 .

2
US Warming Graph .

º
3-Year Moving Average
5.9ºF / century trend
-2.6ºF / century
12.5ºF / century
Consider Salina, Kansas, in the heart of
wheat country, breadbasket of the world.
At 5.9ºF / century, by 2100 summer in Salina
would be as hot as Dallas now.
Warming at 12.5ºF a century, by 2100 it would be
as hot as Las Vegas now.
We should PREVENT this.
(Since 1992, Kansas warmed twice as fast as US).
3
Pay ranchers and farmers to move
  • carbon from the air back into soils.
  • Why?
  • We already have too much CO2 in the air.
  • Warming could well triple,
  • vanishing Arctic sea ice (about 1ºF warming),
  • phasing out coals sulfur emissions (ditto)
  • warming Earth enough so energy out in
    (ditto).
  • Too much heat can cut crop yields in half.
  • Dont let our food supply dry up.
  • Give every American a 300 carbon tax credit
  • Pay for it with a 3 / lb carbon tax,
    .

even without more CO2.
Blame
each year.
rising 5 / year.
4
WATER
  • FOOD
  • .
  • Rainfall becomes more variable.
  • Planet-wide, we get a little more rain.
  • Around the Arctic gets lots more,
  • mid-latitudes (20-45º) less rain. .
  • Yet in any one place, we get
  • more hours and days without rain.
  • In other words,
  • we get more downpours and floods,
  • yet also longer, drier, hotter droughts.

5
CO2 Levels in the Air ,

highest level since 15 million years ago (430-465
ppm)
Up 42
Annual Averages
The deep ocean then was 10ºF or more warmer.
Seas then were 80-130 feet higher.
CO2 levels were almost as high (357-405 ppm) 4.0
to 4.2 million years ago.
Sea surfaces then were 7ºF warmer.
(35 Since 1880)
Seas then were 65-120 feet higher.
This means ice then was gone from almost all of
Greenland,
most of West Antarctica, and
some of East Antarctica.
Sediments show East Antarctic ice then retreated
100s of km inland.
300 ppm (maximum between ice ages)
5ºF warmer (7º - 2º already) is worse.
Vostok ice cores suggest 7ºF warmer for 400 ppm
CO2.
CO2 levels now will warm
Earths surface 5ºF, 3ºF warmer still (5º -
2º) worldwide makes dry Kansas summers almost as
hot as Las Vegas. We face big
lag effects. So far, half the
CO2 weve emitted has stayed in the air.
The rest has gone into carbon sinks.
not just the 2ºF seen to date.
Current CO2 levels are already too high for us.
- into oceans, soils, trees, rocks.
6
Ocean Heat Content .


Of the net energy absorbed by Earth from the Sun,
84 went to heat the oceans.
7 melted ice, 5 heated soil, rocks trees,
while only 4 heated the air. Levitus, 2005
1967-1990 0.4 x 1022 Joules / year
I
1991-2005 0.7 x 1022 Joules / yr
1022 Joules 100 years of US energy use, at
2000-13 rate
Heat Content (1022 Joules)
2006-2013 1.2 x 1022 Joules / yr
20 x human use
acceleration
By now, the oceans gain more heat every 2
years than ALL the energy weve ever used.
IMMENSE heat gain
From 2007 to now, ocean heat gain has switched to
mostly (70) below 700 meters deep.
Since 2007, 90 goes to heat oceans, less to air
and others. We notice air heating slower.
7
Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG Warming

?ºC
sulfates still 3x 1880 levels
NASA GISS - Earths 7,000 weather stations -
adjusted for urban heat island effects
Brown . cloud . grows over
.. China, India. .
warming unmasked
Sulfates fall 27.
cool
Pinatubo erupts
Coal-Fired Power Plants
Sulfates fall 13.
Sulfates up 46.
Sulfates up 52 (61/40).
cool
Sulfates up 110.
El Chichón erupts
major cooling
cool
warming unmasked
cool
Katmai, Colima erupt
Santa Maria, Soufriere, Pelee erupt
US SO2 cuts start.
Agung erupts
Krakatoa erupts
warming unmasked
cool
Great Depression
cool
less SO2 up the stacks
cool
cool
Sulfate Cooling offsets GHG warming.
Sulfate Cooling offsets GHG warming.
Sulfate Cooling limits GHG warming.
40
89
116
118
61
77
162
1880
2000
Sulfate Levels in Greenland Ice milligrams of
Sulfate per Ton of Ice
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2002)
8
Earth Is Heating Up
means approximately, roughly, is about equal
to
1ºC 1.8ºF.
One MW can power several hundred US homes.
  • Earth now absorbs 0.25 more energy than it emits
    -
  • a 300 million MW heat gain.
  • This absorption has been accelerating, from near
    zero in 1960.
  • 300 million MW
  • Earth must warm another 0.6ºC, so far,
  • just so it emits enough heat to balance
    absorption.
  • Air at the land surface is 1.0ºC warmer than 100
    years ago.
  • Half that warming happened in the last
    33 years.
  • Air at the sea surface is 0.9ºC warmer than
    100 years ago.
  • The oceans have gained 10 x more heat in 40
    years
  • than ALL the energy humans have EVER used.

(75 million MW)
20 x human energy use.
70 x global electric supply
9
Water
More Heat - So?
  • Hurricanes convert ocean heat to
    powerful winds heavy rains.
  • Intense hurricanes are becoming more
    common.
  • Higher hurricane energy closely tracks
    sea surface warming.
  • With more carbon, oceans have grown more
    acidic.
  • So, forming shells is more difficult. They
    dissolve easier.
  • Warmer water holds less dissolved oxygen.
  • Fish mollusks suffer.
  • Sea surfaces warmed 0.15ºC over 1997-2004,
  • so plankton absorbed 7 less CO2.
  • Warming was far strongest in the North Atlantic.
  • CO2 uptake there fell by half.
  • Ocean phytoplankton levels are down 40 since
    the 1950s.
  • Phytoplankton supply half of Earths oxygen.

10
Reservoirs in the Sky
  • Most mountain glaciers dwindle ever faster
  • in the Alps, Andes, Rockies, east central
    Himalayas.
  • When Himalayan glaciers vanish, so could
  • the Ganges River (etc.) in the dry season.
  • Mountain snows melt earlier.
  • CAs San Joaquin River (Central Valley, US salad
    bowl)
  • could dry up by July in most years.
  • The Colorado Rivers recent 10-year drought was
  • the worst since white men came.

11
Earths Thermostat
  • Greenlands ice-melt rate rose 7 x over the past
    17 years.
  • Its net melt-water already 1/2 of US water use.
  • The situation is similar in Antarctica...
  • Arctic Ocean ice is shrinking fast,
    .
  • Minimum icepack area fell 39 in 35 years,
  • while its minimum volume fell 64,
  • It could vanish by fall in 8 years
  • Sea level will likely rise 1-7 feet by
    2100
  • Thawing Arctic permafrost holds 6 x the carbon
    ever emitted by our fossil fuels
  • 2 x the carbon in Earths atmosphere.
  • Already, permafrosts carbon emission rate that
    from all US vehicles.
  • Thawing permafrost can add 100 ppm of CO2 to the
    air by 2100,
  • and almost 300 ppm more by 2300.
  • Seabed methane hydrates Antarctica hold much
    more carbon.

especially in 2012.
39 in the last 10.
be gone all summer in 25.
far more afterward.
12
Hot Dry
What Else?
  • From 1979 to 2005, the tropics spread. .
  • Sub-tropic arid belts grew 140 miles toward the
    poles, .
  • a century ahead of schedule. .
  • So our jet stream moves north more often.
  • In turn, the US gets hot weather more often.
  • 2011-12 was Americas hottest on record.
  • .
  • Over September 2011 - August 2012, relative to
    local norms,
  • 33 states were drier than the wettest state (WA)
    was wet.
  • In 2012, 44 of 48 states were drier than
    normal...
  • Severe drought covered a record 35-46 of the US
    .
  • Drought reduced the corn crop by 1/4.
  • Record prices followed.
  • The soybean crop was also hit hard.
  • By 2003, forest fires burned 6 x as much area /
    year as before 1986.
  • Pine bark beetles ravage forests.
    . .

, for 39 weeks.
US fires will double by 2050.
13
Notable Recent Droughts .
Once a century droughts are now happening once
a decade.
US 3 now
  • When I was young, the leading wheat producers
    were the
  • US Great Plains, Russias steppes, Canada,
    Australia, and Argentinas Pampas.
  • Notable Recent Droughts.
  • When Where How Bad
  • 2003 France, W Europe record heat
  • 2003-10 Australia worst in 900 years.
  • 2005 Amazon Basin once a century.
  • 2007 Atlanta, US SE once a century
  • 2007 Europe Balkans record heat, Greek
    fires,
  • 2007-9 California record low rain in LA
  • 2008-9 Argentina worst in half a century
  • 2008-11 north China worst in 2
    centuries
  • 2009 India 2009 monsoon season driest
    since 1972
  • 2010 Russia record heat, forest fires.
  • 2011 Texas, Oklahoma record heat
    drought
  • 2012 US SW, MW, SE most widespread in
    78 years record heat

China now 1 in wheat.
, 20-70K die.
hotter in 2012
Record heat in 2013.
Worse in 2010
, S. Paulo 13-14.
Since 1979, Amazon dry season grew longer by
1 week per decade.
hundreds die.
all CA very bad in 13-14.
severe in Yunnan 09-13
2 in wheat
15K die.
Wheat prices up 75.
14
Is That All?
Water
  • No ..
  • Over 1994-2007, deserts grew from 18 to 27 of
    Chinas area.
  • With more evaporation irrigation,
  • many water tables fall ..
  • Since 1985, half the lakes in Qinghai province
    (China) vanished.
  • 92 in Hebei (around Beijing), as water tables
    fell below lake beds.
  • Irrigation wells chase water ever deeper.
  • Water prices rise.
  • Inland seas and lakes dry up vanish
  • the Aral Sea, Sea of Galilee, Lake Chad (Darfur),
    Lake Eyre.
  • More rivers fail to reach the sea
  • the Yellow, Colorado, Indus, Darling Rivers so
    far.

3-20 feet / year.
15
Extreme Drought Can Clobber Earth
  • In 1989, NASA climate models showed, as CO2
    levels rise and
  • Earth warms up, droughts would spread and
    intensify.
  • Once-per-9-year droughts would cover 27 of
    Earth by 2002.
  • With business as usual emissions, by 2059
  • CO2 levels would double pre-industrial
    levels.
  • As a result, Earth would warm 4.2ºC 7.5ºF from
    1880 levels.
  • Rain would increase 14.
  • Despite the added rain,
  • increased evaporation
  • would bring extreme
  • once-a-century drought
  • to 45 of Earth,

rising.
WET
DRY
0 1 5 16 36 36
16 5 1 0 Occurrence in
Control Run
Fig. 1d in David Rind, R. Goldberg, James Hansen,
Cynthia Rosenzweig, R. Ruedy, Potential
Evapotranspiration and the Likelihood of
Future Droughts, Journal of Geophysical
Research, Vol. 95, No. D7, 6/20/1990, 9983-10004.
.
16
Droughts Are Spreading Already.

Switch from what could happen to what has
happened already.
º
combined effect
30 16 million square miles
10 million more square miles
Compare 2002 to 1979.
11 of the area during 1951-80 once per 9 years
Area where rain is scarce increased by quite a
bit 3-6 million square miles.
Evaporation increased, by a lot since 1987.
Compare 30 actual severe drought area in 2002
(11 of the time during 1951-80) to 27 projected
for 2000-2004 in previous slide.
from Fig. 9 in Aiguo Dai, Kevin E. Trenberth,
Taotao Qian NCAR, "A Global Dataset of Palmer
Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002
Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of
Surface Warming, Journal of Hydrometeorology,
December 2004, 1117-1130
Droughts spread, as projected or faster.
Evaporation at work
Earths area in severe drought has tripled since
1979.
Over 23 years, the area with severe drought grew
by the size of North America.
17
SUMMARY
as projected
or faster.
  • Severe drought has arrived,
  • Severe drought now afflicts an area the size of
    Asia.
  • So, farmers mine groundwater ever faster for
    irrigation.
  • From 1979 to 2002 (0.5ºC) .
  • 1) The area where rain is scarce
  • increased by the size of the United States.
  • Add in more evaporation. .
  • 2) The area with severe drought
  • grew by the size of North America.
  • 3) The area suffering severe drought tripled.
  • 4) The similarly wet area shrank by the size of
    India.

18
Turning Wheat into Cactus .
  • In 2005-6, scientists calculated how climate
    would change
  • for 9 Northeast and 6 Great Lakes states in 2
    scenarios
  • 1 - a transition away from fossil fuels, or
  • 2 - continued heavy reliance on them (business
    as usual emissions).
  • By 2085,
  • averaged across 15 states, the climate change
    would be like
  • moving 330 miles to the SSW (coal oil use
    dwindle), or
  • moving 650 miles to the SSW (heavy coal oil
    use).
  • Consider central Kansas, heart of wheat country.
  • 330 miles to the SSW lies the area from Amarillo
    to Oklahoma City.
  • 650 miles to the SSW lies the area around Alpine
    Del Rio, TX.
  • 2 people / square mile. Cactus grows there.
  • Mesquite sagebrush too.
  • No wheat

19
What Drives Drought?
  • The water-holding capacity of air rises
  • exponentially with temperature.
  • Air 4ºC warmer holds 33 more moisture
  • at the same relative humidity. .
  • more moisture in the air does not equal
    more clouds.
  • To maintain soil moisture,
  • 10 more rain is required to offset each 1ºC
    warming.
  • Warmth draws more water UP (evaporation), so
  • less goes DOWN (into soils) or SIDEways (into
    streams).
  • More water is stored in the air, less in soils.
  • Not all the water that goes up comes back down.

Thus,
20
Droughts - Why Worry? .
  • Droughts - Why Worry?
  • 2059 - 2 x CO2 (Business as Usual Emissions)
    .
  • More moisture in the air,
  • Average US stream flows decline 30,
  • Tree biomass in the eastern US falls by up to
    40.
  • More dry climate vegetation
  • The vegetation changes mean

Rind et al., 1990
but 15-27 less in the soil.
despite 14 more rain.
savannas, prairies, deserts
21
Crop Yields Fall.
Rind et al., 1990
  • United States 2059 Projections
  • doubled CO2 - Business as Usual
  • Great Lakes, Southeast, southern Great Plains
  • Corn, Wheat, Soybeans
  • 2 Climate Models (Scenarios) .
  • NASA GISS Results
  • Goddard Institute for Space Studies
  • Yields fall 30, averaged across regions crops.
  • NOAA GFDL Results
  • Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab
  • Yields fall 50, averaged across regions crops.
  • CO2 fertilization not included

- 3 of the big 4 crops (rice is the 4th)
(based on 4.2ºC warmer, 14 more rain)
(based on 4.5ºC warmer, 5 less rain)
22
Photosynthesis, Warming CO2 .
  • Plants evaporate (transpire) water in order to
  • like blood
  • get it up to leaves, where H2O CO2 form
    carbohydrates,
  • pull other soil nutrients up from the roots to
    the leaves, and
  • like sweat
  • (3) cool leaves, so photosynthesis continues
    proteins arent damaged.
  • When water is scarce,
  • fewer nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, etc.) get
    up to leaves.
  • So, with more CO2,
  • leaves make more carbohydrates, but fewer
    proteins.

23
Warming Falling Yields .
  • For wheat, corn rice, photosynthesis in leaves
  • slows above 35ºC (95ºF) and stops above 40ºC
    (104ºF).
  • Warming (above 35º or 40ºC) hurts
  • warm, tropical areas harder sooner.
  • Over 1992-2003, warming above the norm cut
  • rice yields by 10 / ºC.
  • Over 1982-98, warming in 618 US counties cut
  • corn soybean yields 17 / ºC.
  • With more CO2, 2ºC warming cut
  • yields 8-38 for irrigated wheat in
    India.
  • Warmer nights since 1979 cut
  • rice yield growth 10 in 6 Asian
    nations.
  • Warming since 1980 cut
  • wheat yield growth 5.5, corn 3.8.

24
Heat Spikes Devastate Crop Yields
  • Heat Spikes Devastate Crop Yields
  • Schlenker Roberts 2009
  • Average yields for corn and soybeans could
  • plummet 37-46 by 2100 with the slowest warming
  • and 75-82 with quicker warming.
  • Why?
  • Corn and soybean yields rise with warming up to
    29-30ºC 84-86ºF,
  • but fall more steeply with higher temperatures.
  • Heat spikes on individual days have BIG impacts.

25
Food Price Index .
and 2010.
With food stocks at low levels, food prices rose
steeply in 2007-8
2002-04 100
UN, Food Agriculture Organization World Food
Situation / FAO News
Ditto 2010-11.
  • Poor people could not afford to buy enough food
    in 2007-8. .
  • Malnutrition starvation rose. Food
    riots toppled governments in 2011.

26
Estimated Impact of 3ºC on Crop Yields by 2050

40-50 decrease for Iowa Illinois
for wheat, rice, maize, soybean 7 other crops
One of many studies, more pessimistic than
average.
average of 3 emission scenarios, across 5 global
climate models, no CO2 fertilization
from Chapter 3 in World Development Report 2010
Development and Climate Change. by World Bank,
Müller, C., A. Bondeau, A. Popp, K. Waha, and M.
Fader. 2009. Climate Change Impacts on
Agricultural Yields. Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
citing
27
Deserts Are Already Spreading.
  • 50 Year Trend in Palmer Drought Severity Index,
    1950-2002
  • The Sahara Desert is spreading south, into Darfur
    the Sahel.
    .

75 60 45 30 15 0 -15 -30 -45 -60
-180 -120
-60 0
60 120
180
Fig. 7 in Dai, Trenberth Qian, Journal
of Hydrometeorology, Dec. 2004
-6.0 -4.0
-2.0 0.0
2.0 4.0 6.0
More negative is drier. More positive is
wetter.
See Spain, Italy, Greece.
The USA lucked out till 2007.
28
2 vs 4 Warming .
  • 1.0ºC warming is here.
  • Holding warming to 2ºC, not 4º, prevents these
    losses
  • 3/4 of Gross World Product
  • 42 Trillion 3/4 of GWP
  • 1/5 of the Worlds Food .
  • 2/3 of the Amazon Rainforest
  • 1/8 of the worlds oxygen supply
  • Gulf Stream
  • West Antarctic Icecap .
  • Florida Louisiana, central CA, Long Island,
    Cape Cod
  • 1/2 of all Species .
  • 2ºC warming is manageable.

2ºC has become unavoidable.
- Norfolk area, much of
4ºC threatens civilization itself.
29
2ºC Warming - 450 ppm CO2e. .
  • also includes
  • CH4, SO4,O3, etc.
  • .
  • Stern Review, British government, Oct. 2006
    .
  • (a report by dozens of scientists, headed by the
    World Banks chief economist) .
  • selected effects - unavoidable damages
    .
  • Hurricane costs double.
  • Major heat waves are common.
  • Droughts intensify.
  • Civil wars border wars over water increase
  • Crop yields rise nowhere, fall in the tropics.
  • Greenland icecap collapse becomes irreversible.
  • The Ocean begins its invasion of Bangladesh.

Many more major floods
Forest fires worsen.
Deserts spread.
more Darfurs.
30
3ºC Warming - 550 ppm CO2e
Stern Review
  • additional damages may be delayed,
    possibly avoided
  • Droughts hurricanes get much worse.
  • Hydropower and irrigation decline.
  • Crop yields fall substantially in many areas.
  • More water wars failed states.
  • 2/3 of Amazon rainforest may turn to savanna,
    desert scrub.
  • Tropical diseases (malaria, etc.) spread farther
    faster.
  • 15-50 of species face extinction.

Water is scarce.
Terrorists multiply.
31
. 4ºC Warming - 650 ppm CO2e..
  • (double pre-industrial levels)
  • further damages - avoidable
  • Water shortages afflict almost all people.
  • Crop yields fall in ALL regions, by 1/3 in many.
  • Entire regions cease agriculture altogether.
  • Water wars, refugee crises, terrorism become
    intense.
  • Methane release from permafrost accelerates more.
  • The Gulf Stream may stop, monsoons often fail.
  • West Antarctic ice sheet collapse speeds up.

Stern Review
32
5C Warming .
  • 5ºC Warming - 750 ppm CO2e
  • (Business as Usual Emissions)
    .
  • Deserts GROW by 2 x the size of the US.
  • World food falls by 1/3 to 1/2.
  • Human population falls .
  • to match the reduced food supply.
  • Other species fare worse.

a lot,
33
UN Chief on Climate Change .
  • Some scientists are saying publicly that if
    humanity goes on with business as usual, climate
    change could lead to the collapse of
    civilization, even in the lifetime of today's
    children.
  • UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon said I think
    that is a correct assessment. He added
    carefully If we take action today, it may not be
    too late.
  • September 24, 2007
  • Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause
    further warming and long-lasting changes in all
    components of the climate system, increasing the
    likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible
    impacts for people and ecosystems.
  • IPCC Synthesis Report November 1, 2014

34
Take Carbon Out of the Air!
  • 1 Rebuild rangelands
  • Speed process up 10-20 x with short rotation
    cattle grazing.
  • Deep roots, dung beetles move carbon into soil..
  • Absorb 1 Ton of carbon / acre / year.
  • Farming can put 4.3 GT CO2 / yr in soils (0.7 in
    US)
  • Organic farms add 1 T of carbon / acre / year to
    soil.
  • 3 Put CO2 into selected rock..
  • Spread around millions of 2-story towers with
    crushed rock.
  • 4 Bury biochar shallow

perennial grass roots add carbon to soil.
Lots more rain soaks in.
Take 80 ppm CO2 from the air.
, for 20-100 / T.
Speed up natural process 5 x.
more soil carbon stays eons, holds water.
35
  • .
  • Poor .
  • nations .
  • believe .
  • rich .
  • countries .
  • created .
  • the .
  • problem, .
  • so .
  • let .
  • THEM .
  • fix .
  • it! .. . .

Misc. Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan,
Malaysia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.
World CO2 Emissionsfrom Fossil Fuels32.7
Billion Tons in 2012
In 2012, for the
In 2013-14, China
China CO2 output may peak by 2016 (Bernstein) or
2020 (Citi).
2.3 from 2013 ahead of schedule.
36
US CO2 Emissions, by Use .

US CO2 Emissions by Use
trucks, airlines, buses, trains, pipelines, ships
2012 USDOE - EIA (US Department of Energy
- Energy Information Administration)
Concentrate on the BIG stuff coal for
electricity (with a carbon cap) personal
transportation.
37
US Electricity, by Source Yr .
38
Americas Low-Carbon Revolution Has Begun
US DOE / EIA
US DOE / EIA
Net Imports
US DOE / EIA
US DOE / EIA
39
QUESTIONS?
  • 1 CO2 levels now commit us to 3ºC warming,
  • not just the 1ºC weve had so far.
  • 2 That much warming is very bad for the food
    supply, etc.
  • We sustain crop yields now by mining
    groundwater.
  • 3 We need a substantial rising carbon tax,
    soon.
  • 4 We need to move way beyond carbon neutral.
  • We need to move gt 100 billion tons of
    carbon
  • from the air back into soils and elsewhere,
    ASAP,
  • to prevent 3ºC warming, or worse.
  • Contact Dr. Gene Fry
  • for more details, citations references.
  • gene.fry_at_rcn.com
  • www.globalwarming-sowhat.com
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